Last year they placed the last 70 yards closer to the finish, are they doing the same this year?
I really can't think KK is good enough to win, or even be placed in a CH. He may well have improved OR last years form isn't that great. Zaynar was 3rd, has form with Karabak, and Celestial Halo 4th all have been relatively disappointing. Is the form that hot?
We will find out.

There are lots of positives at the moment Rease, bubbles will have to burst but lets hope we all get to Cheltenham alive and kicking then it's game on.

Dunguib easing towards Naas return

Dunguib still has the Champion Hurdle as his target even though the big freeze has delayed his preparation.

Trainer Philip Fenton would like to give the eight-year-old his first appearance of the winter in the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas on January 15, although he admits it might come too soon.

"He's in great form. We took him to Leopardstown on Thursday. He went two miles round there and did a nice sensible gallop," Fenton told At The Races.

"He's on track, but we're not sure if he's ready for the Limestone Lad Hurdle as we got delayed a bit by the weather.

"He's been on the go for quite a while but even so he could have done with a racecourse gallop possibly three weeks ago rather than last Thursday. We got delayed by the snow and it was pretty frosty with temperatures down to minus 10C and 11C.

"We lost a bit of headway even though he was exercising and we've not missed a day. All we were doing was breaking the trot and cantering, but that's all.

"We'll have to get the results before we can look at the Champion Hurdle. It depends on his performance on his way whether we go for that. It was the target at the start of year and as long as he does himself justice, the Champion Hurdle is still the target."

Dunguib, the Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner in 2009, was only third when odds-on for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at last season's Festival, but subsequent events have shown his run was better than first thought.

Fenton went on: "The form is working out pretty well with Oscar Whisky (fourth) winning on Saturday, and Menorah (winner) couldn't have advertised it any better. The form is holding up very well.

"The Limestone Lad Hurdle is two miles three and Cheltenham would be a tough two miles, and I'm sure it's the equivalent of two and a half miles any place else. If it so happens we have to step him up in trip we will go in that direction."

Yes, good points, Steeple. The odds of getting ground as decent as it was last March for the CH are threatened by the watering policy. It is a concern in terms of Binocular's chances. More danger, arguably, of ending up with the kind of wet ground we had in 2008 when Katchit won.

Binocular was so good in the CH last time, you would have to think the better ground played a key part in that. What might also have played a part was the fact he went into the race near his peak physically in terms of his age; when he ran at the Festival in 2005 and 2006, he was still maturing, both physically and mentally. That, to my mind, makes it a little harder to assess just how much of Binocular's brilliant performance last March was down to the benefits he derived from the drying ground.

I think he will handle a little cut, but i think good enables him to really produce his peak. I could be wrong, but i think the trainer is only interested in peaking this horse now in spring, which tends to correspond with his preferred going. I seem to recall it was pretty desperate on his English debut and the speculation immediately afterwards was that he needed it deep.

Funny horse this, the twists and turns in his reputation and our perception of him. We've always know where we stood with Celestial, Punjabi, Medermit, Katchit, Solwhit etc etc but this horse - initially wanted lots of cut and could not jump (Ascot); then would not get up the hill and a non-stayer (supreme); speed horse, great jumper, decent ground flat track (aintree/haydock); superstar but possible short-runner (Ascot); non-stayer in some quarters (though he stayed up the hill but was just not fit) in his 1st champion; Newcastle, Kempton, Sandown, an enigma, his best behind him, unsuited by soft ground and steady pace and unsuited by a test of speed, jumping gone to pieces; Champion was awesome, wanting decent ground, a fast run race, magnificent hurdler; Newbury - blew up, unsuited by a sprint.... what next?!

In terms of the ground, last yr looked really decent to me; it stands to reason that sooner or later it will turn up soft or gluey. I cannot see anything beating him at his best, unless the ground gets too gluey or soft, though this yr's opposition look (at this stage) better than last yr's.

Yes many questions remain about Binocular. I think we will only get our answers in March.

But again on the ground. Because they got it wrong last season on the first day I think plenty of effort will go in to make it true good to soft on the opening day. If that effects Binocular then so be it, it certainly won't effect Hurricane Fly or Khyber Kim.

My personal view is Binocular will not be effected by the good to soft ground but that he is a tricky horse to get right. He needs his racing. I'm sure if he runs well a Kempton he'll be an improver again come March.

One thing for sure, he's certainly not a horse to follow every time he runs.

of course he is trained to peak in March,but so are all the big chances in the top races,but a lot of them manage to perform at other times to their level.Henderson seems to struggle with Binocular in that respect.Is that cos he aint bothered or as i suspect he cannot work the horse out as he would like to??

Given the owner only cares about one race and certainly doesn't care about prize money, it could well be possible that he is being trained to peak for one race and one race only.

I'm not going to comment on Henderson as I got into a bit of trouble with other posters last time I did.

But I think he wasn't at his best with Binocular, Punjabi & Long Run. Then there is Khyber Kim, NTD seemed to get him right.

Took him a while though CV,he was jumping fences for Twiston Davies!!

My thoughts are this bud. You've gotta take the 5/1 about Binocular. He was not fit for the fighting fifth and if he wins at kempton he goes 5/2 or shorter. If he loses his price will still hold.

He has to be the third bet for you. I've added bits non stop since I started this thread. Up to 4pts now.

In a competitive looking race I dont think Silviniaco Conti can be ruled out.He won a fast run 2m.3f.hurdle at Ascot,then ran creditably giving 4lb to Menorah and Cue Card.The race was not run to suit a stayer like him and he will be better with an end to end strong gallop.He wasnt trained for the race either.It was reported Paul Nicholls was surprised by his Ascot win and run him at Cheltenham to see if he had a Champion Hurdle horse.On paddock inspection the horse didnt look anywhere near as well as he did at Ascot,I think he gave it his all that day.He will now be trained specifically for the big day.His speed figure with the weight adjustment compares favourably with Menorahs and I think he has a lot of potential.

Peddlers Cross:The most solid form.

some use Starluck as a sign that PC may not be up to it,but Starluck on flat tracks is right up there with the best around,as his xmas hurdle run showed.PC beat him comfortably.Outspeeded him and outstayed him,deadly combination,and this horse has it,make no mistake.
Thats the only thing that people trying to crab him can come up with,and actually its a positive rather than a negative imo.Oh,that and he is apparently a sitting duck,even though he has shown more than once that he can quicken and quicken again off a decent pace
Has shown speed at 2m,has proven course form,and stays well.
Yep,the most solid of all the contenders imo

ignoring the Royal Ascot winner in 3rd there Brigust?and RDS was a solid decent horse last year,not so good over fences though!!. Of course a novice race is not the be all and end all,but it showed the course holds no problems.No doubt he has improved from that,by beating Starluck over 2m on a flat track,which to me was solid,and Starluck was reported as fit on the day,Bino was not,i admit,but still good to beat him comfortably.Yes he got some stick from the jockey,but he obviously responds well and keeps finding when asked,and that will stand him in good stead for the CH.

Looks like I will be seeing you back here next Sunday,Bud.

I suggest you take the 20's while they are still going.

I suppose Philip E will stick with Barry O'C but I have to say I hope not, that is the one worry I have. I think in these Championship races you need every possible thing going for you and not even riding a winner over here must be against you. I don't mind being completely wrong but when you have a 'what if' situation you do feel bad about it. I have no worries about him jumping given the CH will be run fast and he can settle and stride out.

Talking of jockey's I backed the Japanese horse that finished 2nd in the Arc where if they switched the jockey's they switched the result but hey ho.

I didn't mean to win the CH, Bud, I mean't if he bolts up next week there is absolutely no way he will be bigger than 5s or 6s so you can lay off and have a free cover for your other bets. Simple.

The target is the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas and so far only Sublimity has confirmed. H Fly and Solwhit are set to lock horns a week later in the Irish Champion. If you look through the CH betting only Blackstairmountain could be a danger.
He is currently 5s and 6s for the Irish Champion but PE has always said he wants to give him an 'easy' on his first run back.
This time last year he was favourite for the CH so with Menorah high in the betting now I fully expect a severe shortening if everything goes to plan.

I'm adding Dunguib before he runs at Naas. If he hurdlers better he's a contender. He'll be my 4th horse for this and 20/1 will  vanish if he wins on sunday.

I can't have paddlers cross based on that fighting fifth form. Fto form is always poor. No easy was binocular fit and peddlers can't be touched at his current odds. Not with this field.

At least PC can jump! Current price a tad short possibly,although seems ok to me,but that dont matter if you have bigger than Dunguibs current price,who cannot jump well enough,well could'nt last season anyway.

CV just a bit of advice and my opinion, I will bring you back to your opening post.

Your cons section states the below about Dunguib.

"Cons: By word he can't jump a hurdle at all, nothing has a hope of winning a champion hurdle if they can't jump. Especially given the class of the opposition. Menorah has gone on and improved since the Supreme, Dunguib hasn't as yet shown any reason to believe he can reverse the Supreme form"

Your backing 4 and going against your original thoughts, you are getting muddled and you will waste money in my opinion, Have you backed Menorah based on your thoughts above if not why not?

If you have to then pick 1 horse or 2 at your considered value and stop messing about your wasting your profits going for 4 bets and going against your original thoughts.

In my opinion Peddlers Cross is the one you should be backing, im backing it NRNB and he is the only one im backing unless i see anything of value between now and the festival, he owes me nothing as i had it backed for a nice amount at the last festival, he likes the track, is in top form and will have improved come March.

Stand out bet for me, but having 4 bets in Champion Hurdle, discouting this one (PC)and or Menorah and including one you that you were so against in cons is betting suicide in my books.

I hear what your saying if he hurdles better but we know others can hurdle and can hurdle very good so dont see the logic even if your selection wins you will probably make only a few quid instead of one good return.

Maybe if your dutching the bets and have the correct amounts on each to return the same profit off any horse that would appeal in some way to myself but i suspect you dont have this done and may well be losing out.

There are over 20 other races dont burn out in day 1 on the 3rd race imo.

Winner I try to post the pros and cons of each horse. I said about Dunguib that if he improves his hurdling he can be a player. He is 20/1 after all. Which given the horses natural talent would be too big if his hurdling has improved.

By taking 20/1 now I can then lay off closer to the day if I change my mind about him as he  will probably win his two prep races in ireland and go off half that price.

I think he is a danger to them all if he gets it right on the day. Taking a point on him and Khyber kim is hardly going to impact winnings much if Hurricane Fly wins, given I've over 5pts on at about 9/1 average odds.

It's all about prices, those two look value to me and so will be / was added.

I normally play pretty heavy antepost in the champion and arkle. You can get big prices about a few runners that will be short on the day.