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Re Dunguib again:
Just watched the Supreme replays on RUK and do think another factor in his loss was O'Connell's poor tactical nous. The pace wasn't fast and in a Championship race like the SN he was held up way too far back. Going wide I haven't got a problem with, the constant critics of his jumping probably played on the trainer's mind and the oustide route was always going to be the one, but held up so far back? Just before turning in Dunguib was still on the bridle and the jockey was still, imo, confident in picking them up. When they turn in you can see how much ground Menorah and GMOOH steal. Dunguib does pick up but the slow pace, being keen and poor tactical ride meant he had no chance. The horse wasn't nursed into the race at all. It literally went from cruising to hard-ridden, which any horse would struggle with. I do think the problem was that O'Connell wanted to win as close to hard-held as possible, he just severely misjudged just how much ground he needed to make up on the turn in. Think the guaranteed strong CH pace will play into this horse's hands, if he is held-up no worse than midfield and kept away from the outside I do see him as a big player. He obviously needs to improve but the price is big enough. |
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I'm with you Wicketd.
Thy are taking a different course this year avoiding the early heavy ground and being fresher. On form must have a blinding chance. Peddlers Cross beat Reve de sivola narrowly at Cheltenham who then narrowly beat Fionnegas in the Gr1 at Punchestown. Dunguib absolutely toyed with Fionnegas before that when both were fit and ready. In the Supreme he was 4/5 to beat Menorah who was 14s. Not given the greatest ride etc. If he is better than that, and I think he is, that puts him in front of Menorah, Cue Card, Peddlers Cross and, by default Binocular. Hurricane Fly is better than Solwhit but not the 20 lengths he was beaten in the Champion last time. Given a proper preraration, good ground and strong pace Dunguib wins it for me. I've been backing him for a while now. |
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Dunguib cannot jump as well as his opposition,will lose ground during the race,and would have to be something very special to win a CH because of that.Have to jump better to win a CH,simple as that.
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Hurricane Fly improving for 2m and a faster pace. He will improve again for better ground. Nothing to dislike about this horse. But we're gonna learn nothing new until march. I love his consistency and absolutely love this horse to bits.
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True, budd, but that is why we are taking 20/1+.
HF very impressive but must be noted that Solwhit isn't a 2 miler and the others aren't great yardsticks. I think he is too short but wouldn't dream of laying him as he could well prove good enough. |
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You see when you love a horse, you're gonna back him for his career so always worth going ap from the start of the market. I have lost two AP bets on this lad but sure that gives bigger odds next time. I just want him to get there now. But I feel he will be at his best in a Champion Hurdle, with an end to end gallop and better ground. Binocular and Hurricane Fly both hurdle and travel so well they are the perfect champion hurdle horses.
I still think if Binocular wins the Christmas (or January) hurdle he deserves outright favourtism. Menorah's place in the market remains a joke. Should be 6/1 and will be 6/1 in March. |
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In the Supreme he was 4/5 to beat Menorah who was 14s. Not given the greatest ride etc.
If he is better than that, and I think he is, that puts him in front of Menorah, Cue Card, Peddlers Cross and, by default Binocular. Well it depends how much better than that you think he is and assumes Menorah has n't improved since the Supreme (when most of the available evidence suggests that he has). What's the excuse for Dunguib being slaughtered by Hurricane Fly on the only occasion he's been seen on a racecourse since last year's Festival? Apart from Aintree (where he ran a decent race only three weeks after a hard race at the Festival), Menorah has put up two very impressive performances since Cheltenham whereas Dunguib has not be sighted since Punchestown. All this is factored into their respective prices admittedly but I hope the hype continues around the Irish horses, Binocular (been there and done it to be fair) and (to a lesser extent) Cue Card and Peddlers Cross because, if it does, Menorah will be a bigger price on the day. |
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For me I discount Dunguib's run at Punchestown due to how hard he pulled. He pulled his way through the field before mounting a brief challenge and then weakened badly. Can't afford to do that at the top level and will need to settle better.
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^ fair enough - but there's so many if,buts and maybes with the horse - again, I appreciate they're factored in to the price but it takes a big leap of faith to see Dungers rocking up and winning the Champion Hurdle.
Good luck to you though - I'll be the first to hold my hands up if he wins the race. CV - I agree Menorah will be 6/1 on the day - and I'll be on 'cos to me it's an ew bet to nothing - if his price is a joke, what does that make HFs? Menorah goes into race as last year's Supreme winner, Greatwood winner off top weight and impressive winner of Bula (a better profile than Khyber Kim had last year) - I'm not sure what more he can do? Do agree that Binocular should be favourite if he wins Christmas Hurdle - surprised he's not favourite now, to be honest. |
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Try not to be so blinkered Rease. Binocular has run poor races as well, so has Menora. I don't think Hurricane Fly, through Solwhit, will be good enough.
Binocular's CH form is not so outstanding beating Kyber Kim, Zaynar and Celestial Halo. Similarly the previous CH being beaten by Punjabi. Dunguib will be/ is being trained differently this year and was unbeaten before Cheltenham where he had excuses. If you watch the Supreme from last year he only jumped poorly twice when the pace was slow. He jumped the last two as well as anything when the taps were turned on. And Menora had first run on him and was given a very strong ride. I think we will see a different Dunguib this season on better round and the CH is certainly not out of the question on his best form. Just watch his Gr1 Bumper win at Cheltenham, on ytube, and see how easily he won and how strong that form is. The price is right at the moment. |
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To be honest i could not have Dunguib at any price,20 odd is too short imo.
If he can beat what looks like a real serious line up jumping the way he does i will give up the game. As for HF,good display again today,but beat no CH horse yet again.Over reaction cutting him today,although i accept he did look good. Stil half a dozen at least can win the CH,and 7/2 or 4 for any of them is too short. |
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Bud, just check his best form. He murdered Fionnegas just before that horse nearly beat Reve de Sivola in a Gr1 at Punchestown who had finished just behind Peddlers Cross at Cheltenham who beat Binocular the other day.
By your own words there is nothing outstanding to beat and they are all worse prices. He won't be 20s in a couple of weeks of that I'm certain. |
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accusing me of being blinkered is patronising if not laughable when you clearly only have eyes for one horse.
If you're prepared to dismiss Hurricane Fly on his form through Solwhit then surely you have to (by any definition of consistent logic)dismiss Dunguib's chances on his form with Hurricane Fly. I have n't had a bet in the race by the way so it's highly likely that I'm less blinkered than someone who has. [;)] |
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Their are 4 outstanding horses imo in Binocular,HF,Menorah and Peddlers Cross,(thats what i meant by price too short for HF),add Khyber Kim and thats at least 5 horses that Dunguib Cannot beat if he jumps as he has done thus far,and i think their are some interesting outsiders at a lot bigger prices that could prove to be in the mix who jump better.
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Agree he may not be 20's soon,but thats cos people are keeping faith in him rather than accepting his faults.
I just cannot back a horse in the greatest hurdle race that cannot hurdle well,especially when their is competition from horses that hurdle very well. |
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Just looking through the list - Soldatino could yet become a contender, needs to get on the track though.
Cristal Bonus not even in the list, Clerk's Choice would have place prospects on good ground. S Conti and Cue Card have scope for improvement. These are all speculative - but are they any more speculative than Dunguib? |
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Rease I mean't don't criticise one horse while excusing the others. In the race HF bt Dunguib, Dunguib was favourite so not everyone believes he is a lost cause and he had had enough for the season by then, it happens.
In my opinion he beats PCross, Men, S Conti and CC on his and their best form and the Bin form is not outstanding being beaten by Go Native twice and beating the Nick Gifford horse, Dee Williams, a length. K Kim has either improved on the previous season or perhaps the opponents just aren't that great. Dunguib hasn't run this season and they have been working on his hurdling and putting adifferent plan together but I have no problem with that. Back the horse with the best form, Dunguib. Works for me. And, by the way, 20s isn't available everywhere PPower has him at 12s. |
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Great write up and informative subsequent comment. Wish I'd read this before doing my plunges!
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I am sure we say this every year but does look a wonderful race. It is only recently that the golden crop of Irish hurdlers dominated this and so nice to see some British trained horses looking so talented. I do think KK is a cracking ew bet and will declare a bet struck in June. The challenge for all us is the lack of recent runs against each other so feels like a lot of guess work being posted.
PC is the one that really interests me and could be something very special. I dont think Binocular is a cert given the mixed form but roll on March. |
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The Fly at his most visually impressive today but, again off a slow pace (8 seconds worse than the Novice Hurdle winner).
Even though I'm still a Peddlers man, I'm looking forward to seeing what this fine Irish horse can do at Cheltenham. Solwhit is his only real form benchmark at the moment and the proximity of Luska Lad today gives rise to further doubts over Solwhit's ability (or consistency, perhaps, or possibly trip?) But the Fly travelled much more sweetly in today's small field than in his previous defeat on heavy ground when it looked like something was amiss. He obviously does not need the cover a big field provides. Very exciting but questions remain. |
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another top performance from the fly on soft going in a slowly run race
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Interesting going back through Dunguib's videos (though numerous links on ATR seem broken).
Mr O'Connell, his jock, seems to think that the best way to settle the horse is to drop him in last. He was 15 to 20 lengths off the lead jumping the first in the Supreme though, contrary to many critics’ claims on here, he travelled no wider throughout in the Supreme than he'd done in the bumper in 2009. The jockey seems to have less confidence than the horse when approaching hurdles and Dunguib is notably responsive to signals from his rider - perhaps the most responsive and tractable horse I've seen in recent years (bar his second run over hurdles when he took some time to settle). It's a very positive sign, imo, when a horse 'listens' to his jockey throughout a race; when the chips are down, most horses are in 'fight or flight' mode. Under serious pressure, and with their concentration on drawing as much oxygen as possible into their lungs, all else is usually ignored. When a horse has the energy to continue 'listening', it is a huge positive imo. Menorah showed this trait last time when Johnson asked him to steady approaching the last. Dunguib seems to show it at all stages of a race - unfortunately, in his case, to his disadvantage as he is frequently reined back in running and regularly unbalanced as O’Connell’s caution kicks in approaching a hurdle. On the few occasions he’s been allowed to go on with one or two to jump, he moves with considerable relish and jumps much more cleanly. He has a tendency to hang left under pressure, a considerable disadvantage given his rider’s preference for the outside berth. Were he mine, I’d jump him off in front in the Champion and grab the inside rail, though he’d probably need a jockey with considerable confidence in his pace judgement. Cheltenham is a fine course for well ridden front-runners. I normally hate to see regulars jocked off, but I’d be most interested in Dunguib at the price if they chose an experienced Cheltenham jockey like Choc Thornton. I would though have a slight hesitation given the way he finished in the Champion Bumper when he looked to me like he was reaching the end of his tether. Having said that, I thought he definitely had more to give in the closing stages of the Supreme when he was simply set far too much to do. In summary, at the price, he is worth a saver NRNB. |
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Agree with that steeple, good stuff. I was particularly impressed with his jump at the last in his first novice hurdle race I think it was. Admittedly under no pressure, he jumped the hurdle very quickly and fluently. The only serious doubts arose about his jumping when he put in a somewhat poor round in the Deloitte, but prior to that he was nowhere near as bad.
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Tremendous post, and I'm with you on Hurricane Fly. A monster of a horse and the "questions to answer" are simply those that he has not had the chance to address thus far, i.e. his suitability for Cheltenham. Only beaten once over hurdles in Ireland, and good excuses for that. A different class to the rest, except, perhaps, Binocular.
I do disagree with your rating of Istabraq. yes, a quality horse, but one who never faced a single top class opponent and, in my view, would have been flaky had he done so. Incredibly lucky to have raced at the lowest point of 2 mile hurdling in my memory (back to 1970). |
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We have no way of knowing if HF is different class to the rest,beating Solwhit and co repeatedly tells us nothing,except that he is a genuine contender-no more than that.
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Cyclops,your opinion of Istabraq is a rrather lonely one i suspect,but you are of course entitled to an opinion,however stupid it sounds!!
Nothing personal my friend. |
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Come on lads,look back over his novice campaign.Dunguib's races are littered with hesitant jumps,he got away with them against the lesser horses cos he has a great engine,but against the cream he cannot afford that,lose too much ground.
Desperate stuff imo looking to him for value,it aint there. |
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Hurricane Fly won on Good Ground at Punchestown in a time 2.6s quicker than Arvika Ligeonniere won the novice hurdle that day. Hurricane Fly was not fully fit that day and improves every time for his first run. So despite him winning on heavy twice this season I am in no doubt what so ever that he will improve for better ground.
But I can't see Hurricane Fly being shorter than 4/1 on the day if Binocular wins at all before Cheltenham. 4/1 is fair given the questions he has yet to answer. |
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Bud I think you should take into consideration the fact that Dunguib's races were often either steadily run or he was far superior to the opposition and the pace not strong enough. Binocular is a case in question. Running in conditions races where the pace is never true he jumped awkwardly whereas in the CH he met the hurdles in stride and flew them. At home he jumped awkwardly until they galloped him at pace where he again flew them.
Dunguib is a big, galloping horse who needs a fast pace which he will get in the CH. I also think their aim of getting him to the CH only racing on better ground is just right. Only 10 weeks to go. |
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I'm with cyclops most of the way on Istabraq - a lovely horse, a much-respected owner etc etc but all the adoration is over the top imo if you go by the formbook. His opponents were a very poor bunch indeed. It might be that he could have beaten top class opposition but never got to prove it.
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Istabraq is very similar to Best Mate in that respect - hard to knock a horse who wins 3 in Chapionship races in a row, but ultimately the level of form dosen't make him an all time great.
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Not so lonely, after all, Bud ! And maybe not so stupid ?
Still awaiting the top class opponent that Istabraq ever beat.............. |
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The benefit of hindsight is a wonderful thing Cyclops, one eyed or not.
Perhaps you could list the Champion Hurdlers who beat good or better horses, after all Binocular beat Kyber Kim and Zaynar with Celestial Halo 4th. Before that Punjabi won it. |
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To help Ist easily beat French Holly and Dato Star 170+ rated hurdlers and Bin beat as above 160+ rated hurdlers. Over to you.
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And hindsight can be applied two ways, would you really now consider French Holly and Dato Star top class hurdlers?
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Istabraq was nothing like Best Mate imo - he did have a few very good rivals for one, and he won so bloody easily so often it doesnt even bear comparison.
http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=VVB6_HvBv8U Enjoy! |
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Yep.lets knock champions cos they brushed aside all challengers,ffs!!!
Not often i get angry on here,but really lads do we need to do this??? |
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Back the horse with the best form, Dunguib. Works for me.
When I read this sentence, penny finally dropped that Brigust is on a little bit of a wind up here.[;)] |
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Istabraq was a class act who detroyed almost every horse he came into contact with - they cannot all have been donkeys can they? Of course, he did beat a few average ones, but usually by a distance hard held. Best champion i have seen in the flesh by some distance(i did not se the Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon et al yrs live, only on tape, however). I am sharing budd's anger!
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I did not start this thread to have people come on here to knock the best Hurdler I'll ever see. Istabraq hammered his opponents. That's all he could do, he shall not be knocked just because he wasn't around in the 70's.
Now enough knocking of great horses please. |