I can't see thousand stars going over fences this season. Mullins has enough novice chasers already.

Winnerallrite - PC is one that interests me very much, though I have not entirely made my mind up about him yet. I see he is your pick at this stage. What makes you favour him, may I ask?

PC strikes me as being very interesting in the context of this race as it shaping up. A lot may hinge on him in terms of the outcome of the CH, I feel.

In particular, he may just have the attributes that would be needed to thwart the impressive turn of foot that HF and, to some extent, Binocular have shown in winning some of their races. You could say Binocular and HF are the complete article in the sense that they exemplify so well the attributes you expect to see in the best specialist two mile hurdlers. So that raises the question of how do you get the likes of HF and Binocular beat, if they turn up firing on all cylinders in March?

In the first instance, you are probably going to have to force them to sustain their finishing kick over a distance further than ideal for them. The further they have to race in the finish, the more the threat posed by their acceleration will be reduced. You are probably going to need to be on a horse that is good enough to kick on from two out and then have enough class and fight in it to withstand the challenges from behind long enough to ensure that finishing speed alone will be insufficient to clinch the race. It would then become very much a battle to the line close home and if we get into that situation it is far from certain that the classy speedy types, HF and Binocular, would be the most likely to come out on top, imo.

I liked the way PC won the FF. The jockey took the opportunity to kick for home comparatively early as they entered the long finishing straight. He pretty much ensured that the speedy Starluck and Binocular would have to sustain their finishing sprint over quite a distance if they were to win. He applied pressure to the two main challengers in exactly the right way in order to reduce the risk of being out-sprinted by them over a short distance in a race where the early pace had been no more than modest. It was a very positive, forceful tactic and just what you need to do when up against horses that may be a bit more slick and have a bit more short-range acceleration than the one you are riding. He got Binocular and Starluck on the back foot and under pressure, ensuring they had to dance to PC's tune and not the other way around down the finishing straight.

If PC is good enough to turn it into a long, driving finish in the CH, perhaps by getting to the front and kicking on strongly from two out, he may be able to stretch the others enough to ensure that the strongest battler ultimately wins the race rather than it being won by a horse that was the better traveller or had the superior turn of foot.

If PC can push his way to the front in that way coming down the hill, he has some fine attributes for finishing off the race - he has a reasonable amount of speed, he is a very willing and tough horse seemingly, and he has shown he can withstand repeated challenges and is capable of quickening and then quickening again, if necessary.

However, if the ground is as dry as it was for the CH last March (which is perhaps not all that likely), marginally I would still possibly fancy Binocular to be too good. I wouldn't at all discount HF running brilliantly on the day also, though that is a more speculative judgement until we see him actually run at the Festival.

You may be half right there CV but Mikeal's form this year does not a) suggest he is fast enough for the Arkle and b) not likely to be risked a fall at speed again.
The RSA is his race. His win in the Ballymore over 2m5f at Cheltenham on the likely prevailing ground conditions must point to the RSA and not the Arkle.

CV no worries 5 points could be 7 points win too, if it wins your wasting 200 quid if your betting a point equals 100 quid or @ 9/1 = 2,000 return.

200 quid @ 6/1 peddlers non runner no bet to take 1400 out , or 100 e/w with the firm going 1st 4 places in this event would be my idea of an ideal 2 pt bet in this race,then move on as there is plenty more races to make money on.

I only back nrnb now, have lost good money on horses found to be lame or issues with a week or 2 before the festival.

>>>AKA, great insight i must admit to agreeing with your take on the race on how it could develop.

We must also take into consideration that Celestial H will not blaze trail this field here and set it up nicely for Binocular this time around and connections of other horses are aware that this is what he will need so all camps are going to have to run their own race.

This is exactly how PC can gain an advantage he has the mix of speed and stamina to cope with different tactics, he has done it at the course beforehand can apply pressure to the majority of them when it matters.

Unbeaten hurdler, mix of speed and stamina, wont mind ground conditions (Good-sft /Good,gd-sft in places etc), course winner and likely to improve, can use forceful tactics and ask questions about all of them when he wants to that's very useful and could apply pressure on jockeys who want to "hold" onto their speed finish he could be gone by then!

I will gladly take on HF & Bino with the above points

Well I'd love to have those other 2 points on at 9/1 on Hurricane Fly, but he's 4/1 now while Dunguib is still 20/1. You have to look at what horse represents value. Something could happen Fly like Go Native last year, so I like to identify what horses I think might win and get them on my side if possible, (ie if the price is right)

This may be a tough one to read.
Who will  make the running?
I don't think Celestial Halo will run so that leaves no obvious pacemaker.
They would be made to send Peddler's on with so many 'finishers' in the race.
Similarly Binocular hurdles better off a fast pace.
So with Hurricane Fly, Menorah, Binocular, Silviano, Peddlers, Starluck and Dunguib among others queueing up who will  make the pace?

Overturn possibly. But I hope there is no pace and the race is run at a crawl. Only 1 winner then.

Pc Has pace,wont be leading till 2 out imo.Jockey wont be panicking,he knows what hes got.If any of the so called speedsters can quicken past him after he has quickened for the 2nd time,then they are something special imo.
Cant compare Solwhit on those soft ground crawls to the FF,for one thing i am convinced he aint as good as he was,and he is far away from CH class now.
Starluck on a flat track over 2m would do to him what HF did imo.

SOLWHIT will miss Cheltenham and will go to Aintree in at hack up in the 2 and a half mile hurdle race. Mark my words!

Paul Carberry wasn't even riding Go Native in last season's Christmas Hurdle lol - Condon was riding it - duh!!! You lost know nothing do you lol

Solwhit is a cracking horse. Solwhit beat a in form Fiveforthree, it's beat Hurricane Fly once, its beat many good horses. People should not crab him. Hurricane Fly is a machine that's why he got beat to him the last twice.

I agree with you. I think Hurricane Fly is the best horse in the race. I hope he gets there because he will have too many gears for them. He is the real thing. I think Peddlers Cross is the horse we have to beat.

Of course you were right about Condon, he threw me because he was making the perfect immitation of Carberry and nearly f u c k e d up.
See Mayweather, you can contribute to a sensible debate when you put your mind to it. I may disagree with your views but well done.

If you read the post CV you will see I was merely refering to the proximity to Starluck and that the winning margin was not a true reflection.

Guys can we make sure we don't let this thread descend into responding to Mayweathers attempts to antagonise other posters. I'd like to review this thread and the responses in the days leading up to cheltenham. Some useful posts on here. Thanks.

Well it looks like i am in a minority re Solwhit.I still feel he is not the same horse as he was before his problems,he aint looked the same to me anyway.As i said i would be confident that had he ran in the FF,Starluck would have passed him with ease,but accept that cannot be proved of course,just my opinion.
I would like to make it clear that i am in no way saying HF cannot win the CH,of course he can,i am just saying that imo beating Solwhit these days is easier than it was.
We can all look at form differently,and of course we do,and imo beating a fit Starluck with his conditions is sound form,given his run against GN and Bino last xmas,plus Starluck at his age should still be improving i would think.

I just can't understand why you can think solwhit isn't the same horse. He's beating everything in ireland bar hurricane fly like he did last season.  He has a great shout in Aintree as he'll have the freshness on the champion hurdle horses like Paddlers and Khyber Kim who will run there.

Budd do you think hurricane fly would have won that fighting fifth given  it was run at at crawl and then turned into a sprint when  peddlers took it up.

Solwhit has beaten HF,Since his problems he has not looked in the same league.Now that may be because HF has improved,but that much?? Certainly evidence he aint the same,but not conclusive i admit,depends how you look at it,but it is evidence.

Just had another look at Solwhit:
Solwhits opposition in all those Grade 1's in Ireland includes,VLV,DPalm,Jumbo Rio,Muirhead,Oscar Dan Dan,Mourad and Punjabi and Sublimity.The last 2 on soft/heavy.None of those would win FF against this years opposition,nowhere near.Solwhit has been to England twice over 2m and failed both times,yes excuse for the CH,but he was beaten both times.
I think the Irish hurdlers are way behind the English in terms of ability,with the probable exception of HF,but until he comes over here and proves it,the jurys out on him.

i bet hurricane fly to win the 2010 champion hurdle when he was still a novice at 8s mullins said he was good enough to run in mile and a half group 1 race on the flat there is a little value at 9/2 cos when he wins the irish champioe the way he travelsn hurdle he will be 5/2 or 3s and on the day all being well the way he travels he may trade in running at 6/4 but like i say its all about opinions

Solwhit cannot be a in form Hurricane Fly - no chance! Solwhit is really good but Hurricane Fly is different class to anything in the 2 mile division.