|
By:
That's harsh, don't think menorah could have done much more in his last race at cheltenham, saying that I do think he is a couple of pounds behind hurricane fly and binocular.
|
|
By:
Just my opinion, not saying he can't win, just saying he's priced too short based on his bula win. Clearly hasn't done a thing wrong.
|
|
By:
to a degree i think i agree with u CVByrne. im not saying he wont win CH, but im not overly convinced about his wins (albeit off top weight in greatwood) between the supreme and bula. from the bula i still fail to see how silviniaco conti (the horse i know i keep bleating n about) went from 8s to 40s after giving menorah 4lb and running a respectable first run at cheltenham after being effectively thrown into the race without full prep for it!?!
|
|
By:
Exactly, the only champion rival he beat that day was giving him weight and is 40/1 for the race. So essentially he's priced up as a no hoper, yet Menorah was cut from 14/1 to 5/1 based on a win over a Champion Hurdle outsider. Doesn't add up. At least Peddlers beat Binocular.
|
|
By:
What price do ye make menorah?
|
|
By:
8/1
|
|
By:
Maybe a bit generous CV, you'd get linched with e/w money, but agree with you that 5's is a bit skimpy
|
|
By:
I need to think a bit more about Menorah. Still not quite sure what I make of his chances. There is something I like about him that nags me and makes me think possibly he could prove well up to this standard. I agree though that you can also look at the form of his races and wonder whether there is quite enough there to underpin what is now quite a short price about him. Nice one to have for anyone who is on at much bigger prices from earlier in the season, as the horse has not disappointed at all since winning the SN; it is just the issue of whether the trials Menorah has contested have been enough of a test to justify the current much shorter price about him.
|
|
By:
He's benhind Bin, HF and Peddlers for a place imo.
|
|
By:
Not a race to back EW in imo(unless you are taking a hail mary at a outsider) there are far too many horses that you wouldnt be surprised at making the frame and you may be better served by putting the place money on your second choice rather than relying on something to make the three..
|
|
By:
aka i agree in the sense that i dont rate menorah is the "almost good thing" the price may suggest, but that, and similarly to my views on hurricane fly, i dont think the form is conclusive either way. he has won the races before the bula well, and off top weight in greatwood, but not beating anything substacial in terms of top class 2 milers imo. i disagree with CVByrne when u say he's beaten an outsider, i think that its the other way round and that instead of rubbishing the form of beating conti, it should reinforce conti's chances having run well behind menorah giving him weight, and cant see how goes from 8s to 40s on back of that run. menorah hasnt done anything wrong, and i feel will always be the sort that does enough, and grinds out the win, as opposed to dazzling. think menorah/hurricane fly have to prove against top class, conti needs to come on for the run which i think he seriously will, peddlers looks solid atm, although the form with binocular could need reinforcing as i would write the fighting fifth off for binocular, binocular looks pretty solid but didnt beat any of the major players last week imo. oscar whisky looks interesting and if wins the welsh hurdle then has claims imo, similarly with get me out of here if turns up back on fire in totesport. mille chief is another having been impressive against not much but off top weight, and soldatino could also be a player if progresses on last years form. cue card will wait til next year and walkon could be anything. wouldnt completely rule out khyber kim as loves cheltenham, but would obviously need to step it up alot to figure come march. dunguib is the only other horse i think could play a part, altho needs a run soon
|
|
By:
Yes, Zilcal, it might be more of a race to approach with an element of dutching on the win side, particularly if you have a coherent theme to focus on, such as siding with the more proven championship horses in the field against the potential of those that are less tried at top level. Another theme might be to take two or three of the more interesting outsiders, particularly if you think the market has over-valued the four at the top at this stage.
Paul4 - I think there are one or two interesting prices at present outside the top four. Silviniaco Conti is another one of those you can't be sure at this stage exactly what they are, but he is now a big price largely on the back of his run in the Bula. I thought that race might have come a bit too soon for him and the relatively modest early pace would very much have been against him. Although he is deservedly classed as an outsider at this stage, he probably didn't ought to be nearly twice the price on here as, say, Oscar Whisky or Mille Chief. |
|
By:
aka that has been my thinking re dutching to a degree. I've Hurricane Fly and Binocular heavily backed antepost at almost double their current odds. I believe they are the two classy hurdlers in the field. I'm opposing the two horses who have chasing in their future in Menorah and Peddlers. The former hasn't beaten enough for me, while the latter beat an unfit Binocular. In that race binocular still got to jump the last on the bridle then found nothing and was left alone by AP. If that was Cheltenham, a fit Binocular would not find nothing.
I think that it's too competitive a year for 2nd season hurdlers to win. The years they have won in the past we had weak renewals. Hardy beat an old Rooster, Sublimity beat the old guard, Katchit won where all but Sublimity were 2nd season hurdlers. Most of the supporters of Peddlers and Menorah are on at double figure prices antepost, bets the rest of us would love to have. But there are few who are thinking of backing at current prices. If you remove an unfit Binocular form their wins this season, what is the shortest priced champion hurdle rival either have beaten? Starluck and Sil Conti. It's not enough for me. They'll have to show me on the day. |
|
By:
Equally you could argue that HF has beaten f'all.
|
|
By:
yep,their are a fair few of us not playing on HF for similar reasons,at least menorah and PC have good course form.
|
|
By:
bib big regret not backing menorah at start of season,unlike me that,could kick myself.
|
|
By:
I like Peddlars for the simple reason that he's super versatile, done it on Heavy, Good, over 2.5, small fields, big fields, strong gallop, even pace.
He's the One Horse imo that id be happy with no matter the circumstances or the conditions the race took in, there seems to be an attitude in the horse that suggests he doesnt mind chasing something or leading and trying to repel them |
|
By:
Take your first line there zilzal and you could apply every word to Hurricane Fly too.
Also S&C, Hurricane Fly isn't a 2nd season hurdler, he's shown plenty in winning G1 races outside novice company in different impressive manners. |
|
By:
CV, as ive said he's the one that i find hardest to fathom, against him would be that he's failed to turn up twice through setbacks and has no experience of the place
|
|
By:
well,whatever your choice to win the race,you can be sure their are some big dangers.
Cant bl00dy wait!! |
|
By:
How can it be against him that he's missed the past two festivals if he turns up this year? It's only a worry if you back antepost. His only negative is he's never raced at Cheltenham, but there's no reason to think that is much of a negative given he can win over 2m4f.
I think most would say Hurricane Fly has a good chance. But reservations that similar to mine about Menorah. |
|
By:
Sorry CV, its the getting there that would worry me....
|
|
By:
Worry you what? That doesn't make an ounce of sense. If he's lining up on the day he's obviously got there.
|
|
By:
Sorry, i meant to say that as a ante post bet i wouldnt take the plunge
|
|
By:
He'll be about the same price as he is now when it's nrnb. Not an antepost prospect. But he's got a great chance if he lines up, noone can deny that.
|
|
By:
soldatino? no ear plugs, went to post freely, wide, top weight... still got a chance?
|
|
By:
ran an etra mile or so before the race,forget that imo.
Travelled really well till it took its toll,no way he can be judged on that. |
|
By:
Please don't make me laugh. Stick to horses with a chance please. Even binocular couldn't win as a 5yo. Soldatino has got zero chance. None, not a single teeny teeny chance.
Sometimes you need to just draw a line with horses. No point wasting time with no hopers. |
|
By:
alexmillwall im with u on that one, also cruised most of race and just failed to find much on sticky ground over distance abit too far and giving weight away, was also hampered. i think back at cheltenham, over shorter distance, ear plugs in, better ground and a solid pace which will suit, still a player imo
|
|
By:
I do not think Soldat will win the CHampion, but he ran an eye catching race for me.
AKA - re Binocular and the shortening stride. Matt Williams used to oppose Binocular on the basis of his Ascot Bula win where he said in the latter stages of that rout his stride was shortening. I suspect this the horse was still not fully wound up at Kempton, and ridden prominently exposed it a touch. |
|
By:
R.Carver - thanks, that is useful to know. One of the likeable things about Binocular is that he does seem to sustain his finishing burst quite well, as we saw at Ascot when he continued to run on quite strongly for some way after passing Celestial Halo - if he was starting to tie up at the end of that race, as Matt Williams thought, it would be understandable in the context of how much ground he had put between himself and a pretty useful horse in second place. Binocular also ran on quite strongly over a shorter distance after passing Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle and if there was any shortening in his stride pattern if occurred only very close to the line, when the horse may have been getting some sign of easing off from the jockey.
Interesting. Hopefully, the standard of the race in the CH this time will be high enough for us to get an even better insight into just how much of a challenge Binocular is capable of making and withstanding in a closely fought finish at top level. |
|
By:
also a massive binocular fan but at the prices i like my one, i dont think HF irish form is all that. but again its a wide open race, plenty of value around
|
|
By:
When Menorah beat Cue Card and Silviano Conti in the Bula they were both around 10-1 for the Champion so how is it bad value at 6.6 now when Binocular beats 50-1 Overturn and 66-1 Starluck and Hurricane Fly keeps beating Solwhit 25-1 out to 100-1.Budd. just have more on on the day as he will drift again with all the doubters.
|
|
By:
Binocular is the only one with no question marks imo. If he is to get beaten, then it will be by a horse out of the very top drawer!
|
|
By:
No question marks?
Last years CH wasn't that good and that was by miles his best form. Beaten by Cpt Cee Bee, Punjabi, Go Native. Struggled to beat Dee Ee Williams. His main rival Celestial Halo is no star. Plenty of question marks and loads of defeats and excuses. Unlike HFly. |
|
By:
i think the fly raised a few question marks about himself today....he fiddled his way over a few in a race where there was little or no pressure on him....solwhit jumped way better....of course he still quickened away at the end...but i think you could see his stride shortening come the end....basically, the fly's rep was not enhanced today.
|
|
By:
Hurricane has never raced at Cheltenham yet. Madness to say he has no question marks.
Binocular is rock solid, and highly likely to win. |
|
By:
mind you, i don't think that binoc is rock solid...plenty of raving about his last win and yes he turned things round with starluck but overturn stuck to him well enough and KK like all twisters horses around this time of year are dead.He is the champion alright but this years race is infinitely more difficult than last years bunch.
|
|
By:
Sorry to pick you up on this as I don't normally bother but 'struggled to beat Dee Ee Williams'- did you see the race brigust?
|
|
By:
Yes, enough question marks about all of them to add greatly to the interest in this race.
Thought there were probably more positives than negatives from HF's run yesterday. On the face of it, it looked a reasonably searching pace for the conditions and that would give some encouragement to supporters that HF has the engine to cope with a fast run two miles. There is the point about his stride appearing to shorten close home - speed ratings might tell us a bit more about just how demanding the race was yesterday and therefore how much significance to place on the possibility he was starting to tie up. Also perhaps worth bearing in mind it was his third race on testing ground in a comparatively short period of time. There is a danger of being too dismissive about Solwhit, I think. He lacks HF's turn of foot, so will always be vulnerable against that one off a slow early pace. But under the right conditions, Solwhit has shown himself to be a pretty useful horse and he appeared to have most of those conditions yesterday - comparatively flat track, soft ground, decent pace. HF beat Solwhit fairly convincingly yesterday, on what were essentially Solwhit's terms. That doesn't make HF a CH good thing, but it does represent a pretty solid piece of form, imo, in a season when none of the CH trials so far have been particularly informative. The jumping right early on is a small detail that could prove significant later in the season. |