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Yes Rob, I did see the race. Straight afterwards NH said they were in trouble and that is when he was 'unlikely to run' in the CH.
They worked on him and managed to pull things around. |
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He can jump right when there are no horses around him, but when one is beside him he's very quick.
That was mullins comments. The evidence supports his comments too. |
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We all no if the ground isnt on the soft side HF has ZERO chance!on good ground in a truly run CH the fly cant and wont win
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No question marks in the context of a Champion Hurdle imo. His hurdling is electric, and gets better the faster he goes, and he is proven over C&D and more importantly at the festival, which is obviously massive due to the time of year and usual similarity in conditions. As for his defeats, there are 'excuses' for them all, and I have never heard of one that sounded like nonsense. He 'only' beat Starluck and Overturn last time, but did it comfortably, and that was Starluck's Champion Hurdle. He would have been fully tuned, whereas I'm sure Bino had a fair bit of work left on him. He will be primed in March and will most likely have ideal conditions and a race run to suit.
Question marks for me on the others include: HF - Not always superb over his hurdles and as much as I'm a big Solwhit fan, I think he needs at least 2m4, so constantly doing him for pace isn't great champion hurdle form. Menorah - similar to HF outpaced 2 horses that need further lto making it look a lot more impressive visually. I would have expected Bino to have done exactly the same. Peddlers - really likeable sort, but future lies over fences, and I think he would struggle to get a fully fit Bino off the bridle tbh. Whether Peddlers could grit it out and get the speed horses off the bridle and get them into a battle to go past will be fascinating tho. |
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Having analysed yesterdays Irish Champion Hurdle and reviewed the race and comments I think it enhanced Hurricane Flys claims for March. Given Mullins said Hurricane Fly's work was only "average" during the week which may have been due to a cut he received at Christmas it was a very impressive win. They went a good gallop from the start and he clocked a very good time for an Irish Champion Hurdle, he was 6.5s quicker than Day of a Lifetime's win in the opening race on the same card and they went a good clip in that race too. Townend said "I only had to give him a slap after the last; he's a true professional and a proper horse". Given he quickly put 3 lengths between himself and Solwhit in a matter of strides after that slap, off a fast pace in soft ground it again shows he possesses an exceptional turn of foot. Also being a speed horse the likely better ground at Cheltenham will be to his advantage, if he can show that turn of foot off a fast pace again at Cheltenham and given his game battling qualities he may be very hard to peg back.
There was again evidence he jumps a bit to the right at some hurdles but which Mullins said, "He can jump to the right when there are no horses around him but, once a horse gets in beside him, he's very quick". The evidence backs up mullins claim as in both races at Leopardstown when beside another horse he was very quick over his hurdles. Another thing I noticed is the speed at which he gets away from his hurdles, the minute he lands after the last and is asked to go he get's away very quickly, again this will be a very important asset in the Champion Hurdle as the plan would be not hit the front until after the last and the speed at which he can get away from the last could be vital. So I believe he has answered one of the reservations I had in my original post, that me may only run in 3 slow run races in Ireland. He has now showed that turn of foot off a fast pace. He has everything in his armoury to be a Champion Hurdler, the only question that remains is, is he good enough, that will be the question we will soon find out. |
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cvbryne- seems to me ur 4getting tha HF has never quickened off a fast pace, like binocular, menorah, cross do on a regular basis, think ull get a huge shock on what the horse actaully finds when running in a true champ hurdle!
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There seems to have been a few people backing Mille Chief. Anyone any ideas why?
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Pricewise?
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Must be
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Wasn't aware Pricewise had submitted his antepost tip for the Champion Hurdle
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In 2 morrows paper
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CV - you wrote: "There was again evidence he jumps a bit to the right at some hurdles but which Mullins said, "He can jump to the right when there are no horses around him but, once a horse gets in beside him, he's very quick". The evidence backs up mullins claim as in both races at Leopardstown when beside another horse he was very quick over his hurdles."
Good point about how the tendency to jump right may occur when there are no horses close by him. In both runs at the Punchestown festival, in the bigger field and among other horses, he jumped quickly and straight, as far as I could see. May I ask, have you noticed the tendency to jump right when clear of other horses before this season? Was there any evidence of it as a novice |
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The jumping right was only evident to me on his last two run, left handed track early in the race. I've never seen him jump right at the end of a race except at the 3rd last at Christmas where to me he looked like he wanted to go quicker and get past Luska Lad but kept being reined back.
His jumps at the last two flights in every race has been perfection imo. He always hurdles them well and gets away from them well. In the champion hurdle he'll be surrounded by other horses and so will hurdle straight and slick like he has in big fields at the last two punchestown festivals. |
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I know attheraces video is broken but I found his Punchestown win on youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NDxElgbe64 Remember he was just back from injury that day against a field of race fit horses. What is impressive is how he got to Solwhit by the final flight despite being boxed in when Solwhit made his dash for home, he went 4 wide to get past traffic and all this while still on the bridle. It's this race on good ground in a big field where they went a good gallop, and where he had plenty of trouble in running that gives me confidence he will have no problem with the hustle and bustle of the Champion Hurdle Given Medermit was a consistent animal last term, would you use him as a form line between the Cheltenham and Punchestown races? |
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I have only noticed the jumping to the right recently and I think it bears repeating that it can be an indication that a horse is favouring a particular foreleg. If he is feeling any pain at all on landing, it's likely to be seriously exacerbated by decent ground and a fast pace at Cheltenham.
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Thanks, CV.that is helpful feedback on the jumping. I noticed the ATR video link to the Punchestown race is broken; it's fine on the RP site.
It was an impressive manoeuvre to get the horse through the traffic in the Punchestown CH, and to be able to do that and go on to win was another sign that the horse travels and quickens particularly well. Medermit links the Cheltenham and Punchestown form from last season. Through Solwhit, HF can also be linked to some good Cheltenham winning form from the previous season. It was an impressive list of horses Solwhit defeated in winning the 2009 Punchestown CH, including Punjabi as the reigning Cheltenham CH winner and Quevega. Sizing Europe, the favourite from the 2008 CH, was also among those beaten by Solwhit in that race. |
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But good form lines from left years race are absent given go native got injured in the race and solwhit was sick the week of the race.
But in medermit we have a horse who came an 18l 7th at Cheltenham and a 10l 4th at Punchestown. Given Hurricane Fly wasn't fully fit in winning the punchestown race as he's dismissed solwhit far more easily in the three races since, that doesn't leave him that much to find with binocular. The problem arises when we throw Peddlers Cross and Menorah in too, with their own unrelated form. It is a very tricky race to work out. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top four in the market won. |
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Medermit was also injured during the CH last year, pulled muscles in back.
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You sure? I never heard that.
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Yes, AK said as much in his stable tour.
'disappointed at the Festival and returned with pulled muscles all along his back, before bouncing back with a better run at Punchestown'. Punchestown was only 5 weeks later so it couldn't have been too much. I feel he was flattered beating a 'not right' Punjabi at Haydock and his form may not be that close to top class. |
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Yeah the Medermit statment is true.
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'disappointed at the Festival and returned with pulled muscles all along his back, before bouncing back with a better run at Punchestown'.
If Alan King's comments about Medermit can be taken literally, it could be taken as a boost for the form of HF's win in the Punchestown CH i.e. he beat a fully fit Medermit at Punchestown, after Medermit ran very creditably in the Cheltenham CH having incurred an injury during the race. Medermit is clearly some kind of a form line for HF, tying him in with last season's CH. But, as CV implies, we are a little short of really strong form lines all around for the upcoming renewal. At least, either or both of the Welsh CH and the Sandown race (and possibly the Kingwell) look like pitting a few more of the CH contenders against each other than seemed likely a few weeks ago. It might help us sort out views on a few of the interesting outsiders, at least. |
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That info on medermit is very helpful thanks Quevega and others.
Given Hurricane Fly has improved since his punchestown win by dismissing the 2nd and 3rd that day far more easily on his last two runs. Then he really doesn't have too much to find with binocular on last years run. Hopefully by saturday week we'll have some really interesting form to discuss. For hurricane fly backers would really want binocular to come out on top in a potential rematch with peddlers. |
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i now think silviniaco conti is possibly the bet of the festival in terms of bet-to-lay!!! will a horse with ruby walsh onboard at cheltenham festival, as nicholls only runner in a championship race, go off at 45/1....? somehow i cant see it!
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His price has drifted because nicholls said plans are fluid with him and celestial halo, skipping cheltenham and aiming for aintree might be better. It depends on how they get on in the trials. So i'd hold fire on basking him paul.
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oh right when did he say that CVByrne? surely wont not have a runner in champion hurdle, and he said would be a different story come the festival (words to that effect) after the Bula. and celestial halo isnt gona win a champion hurdle
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Today's Racing Post.
He says the plans are fluid, the CH looks hot and he's not convinced they wouldn't be more suited to Aintree. See what the ground is like and how they run before Cheltenham. |
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cheers brigust1
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sure Nicholls said he can get him to the CH in better shape as he was light and probably feeling the effects of his runs prior as they were quite energy sapping races.
Hes only a young horse after all and looks like he'll fill into his shell a little more next year, personally i think he'll have Kauto's box in a few years time. |
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The more I think about it the more I think PN won't have any runners in the CH because Ruby will want to ride HF.
Just a thought. |
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I really think townend will ride the fly, he was talking about cheltenham on rte after his win on sunday. Sounds to me like he thinks he'll be keeping the ride. And so he should.
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Ruby's been off missing some plum rides so unless he is not recovered I see no possible reason why he won't ride HF.
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Well the owners can ask to keep townend on for cheltenham due to his experience with the horse. Ruby can take over after that. From how Townend was talking on rte on sunday i'd be shocked if he didn't keep the ride to be honest.
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yeh thats what i read brookieslad. he was going chasing after his chepstow run but as so impressive they kept him hurdling. then after winning easily at ascot they had no choice but to throw him into the Bula to test him out. ran really well giving weight away, and looked nowhere near as good as before the previous 2 races. he's a chaser in the making, so i'd expect them to give him a chance in the champion hurdle then go chasing next season. nicholls said something like that he would have him in far better condition come march and would be a different story
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A bit like reverse loyalty CV. Your stable jockey breaks his legs and misses rides on the top horses in the top races. WM being loyal does the right thing and puts up the second jockey.
That is why WM will have Ruby on HF in the CH. He is loyal, and Ruby is his stable jockey. I also think that is why PN will probably swerve the CH because the horses in line are outsiders. Only if Ruby is unfit will he miss the ride on HF, I would put good money it. |
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Well I'm pretty sure it's just with the best interest of winning the champion hurdle. Townend has ridden him in 7 of his last 8 runs. So logic would dictate that he keeps the ride. Ruby was unfortunate to break his leg but that would cost him the ride just this time. Because he had such little experience with the horse this season. Nothing to do with loyalty.
Townend will ride I'm sure and I'm happy about that. |
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i cant see paul nicholls not having a champion hurdle horse at the cheltenham festival...
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'Nothing to do with loyalty.'
I'm sure WM is everything to do with loyalty. In fact I think he would feel offended if anyone suggested Ruby didn't have first choice. Sorry CV we will have to agree to disagree about this one. |
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Yeah it's hard to know for sure who'll ride. Good case for both imo. A tad harst taking the ride from Townend though I'd think.
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thousand stars wouldnt be the worst ride for townend? obv not as promising as HF, but wouldnt be without a chance of at least a place. would presumably be ridden differently to sunday?
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