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The Arkle - early season ramblings

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By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Oct 10 08:52
I always wait till i see them jump a fence,so will keep an eye on things for a bit before betting.
By:
ftm
When: 30 Oct 10 22:06
notice rubys declared for royal charm at exeter on tues
By:
Reyes
When: 31 Oct 10 16:33
Muirhead stuffed out of sight. Next!
By:
dananderson
When: 31 Oct 10 17:23
yes looking forward to seeing royal charm . twist must need the run badly ruby on tchico polos
By:
chief dan
When: 31 Oct 10 20:11
kilmurry for me jumped an travelled well at chelt gave weight to Ghizao an hammerd him by 11 lenghts at the prices on here at min im happy with that but its still early but hes the best ive seen out so far this season
By:
dananderson
When: 01 Nov 10 16:55
whats has happned to royal charm tomorrow?
By:
Howdi
When: 01 Nov 10 23:38
^^^ ill get my crystal ball hang on.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Nov 10 08:41
Dinsdale Piranha^
By:
aka
When: 04 Nov 10 18:20
Interesting piece on Noble Prince from Nick Mordin, for those who haven't see it on his site:


NOBLE PRINCE WINS RED HOT NOVICE CHASE

You can never really tell just how well a horse is going to take to fences. So every few years you find one novice chase where a whole bunch of horses improve for the switch to the bigger jumps and produce a red hot contest.

This was undoubtedly the case with the Beginners Chase at Punchestown won by NOBLE PRINCE (41) last week.

They came home from the first fence, just less than a furlong after the start, 7.2 and 8.5 seconds quicker than they did in the two chase over half a mile longer on the same card. Even when I adjust for the shorter distance of Noble Prince's race that makes his time 2.4 seconds a mile better than the next fastest chase. That's just enormous considering the next fastest chase was won by a horse that earned a Racing Post rating of 143.

I've just got to go with what the clock says, and it says this was a Grade 1 performance by Noble Prince.

Noble Prince just lobbed along in fifth place behind the strong pace set by Bob Lingo and Saludos early on.

Despite the good early gallop the race developed into close to a sprint from after three out but Noble Prince continued to move smoothly, closing up easily to dispute the lead two out despite Saludos having just swerved across him.

On the run in Noble Prince looked to have a fight on his hands to catch Healys Bar who had his ears pricked and was full of run. But Noble Prince just laughed at him, using his flat race speed to cruise by, barely having to be ridden to do so.

Noble Prince was a good Group 2 horse on the flat and around Grade 2 class over hurdles. But this run says he's absolutely top class over fences.

I loved the way that Noble Prince jumped like an old hand here and wasn't at all put off when Saludos got stretched into nearly slithering to the ground in front of him two out. And I was most impressed with the turn of foot he showed. Very few chasers can quicken up the way he did in a race where they'd already accelerated. As far as I'm concerned I've found my ante-post bet for the Arkle. At 33-1 the bookies have gone way too big with this one in my opinion. Later this month in the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novices Chase over the same course and distance I think he'll show just how good he is and plummet in price for the big Cheltenham race.


Visually, I had formed the impression that the pace of the race was not quite so hot, but it is interesting to read a different angle on that from a speed rating expert. I think we may see a few interesting contenders for the Arkle put up a good run first time out this season, but without that having much impact on their price in the market. That has certainly been the case with Noble Prince. Helps make it an attractive market to play in, I feel. 

One caveat with Noble Prince (not addressed in Nick's piece)is that the horse settled much better on his fencing debut than on many occasions over hurdles and on the flat. But for that problem with settling, I suspect he would have been Grade One class over hurdles. How well they can settle him from here on in the big races (particularly at a meeting as testing as the Cheltenham festival is for a horse's temperament)is clearly going to be a key issue.  Carberry, I would say, is just about the best jockey around to do that job.

I think there is a hell of a lot to appreciate in Mordin's writings and he is excellent for the sport. There is more than a bit of hyperbole at times (understandable and acceptable, up to a point, with any journalist or writer). There have been times in the past where I felt his judgement about when a horse has shown a particularly good turn of foot raised more than one of my eyebrows. I like the look of Noble Prince a lot, but I would like to see a bit more evidence that he really is quick enough (has the basic speed) to be a specialist two miler. Arguably, he was found wanting for a bit of basic speed in some of his hurdle races, though not settling particularly well in some of those races clearly made it hard to draw firm conclusions about the horse's true attributes.

A horse not to be underestimated though, quite possibly.
By:
Reyes
When: 06 Nov 10 00:18
excellent stuff aka - v.interested to see how NP progresses over the winter.
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Nov 10 10:33
Saludos won at the weekend to boost NP's form although he did make an absolute horlicks at the last fence which cost him his chance in that race anyway.

Royal Charm in action today. Blush
By:
SidTheSexist
When: 09 Nov 10 13:08
Surfing????

anyone know much about this creature, been clipped across the boards today
By:
Quvega
When: 09 Nov 10 13:20
^Positive write up in NJH stable tour yesterday.
By:
Reyes
When: 09 Nov 10 14:57
whhooooshh from Royal Charm. Jumped superbly.

He's on the keep a close eye on list.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 09 Nov 10 15:40
Medermit at Huntingdon tomorrow fyi's
By:
duffy
When: 09 Nov 10 15:50
finians rainbow at chelts friday...fingers crossedLove
By:
Reyes
When: 09 Nov 10 15:51
and Cappo Chris Sunday!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Nov 10 16:08
I know it gets said almost every year, but this is shaping up to be an unbelievable Arkle.. AGAIN! Hard to pick a better race at the festival imo.

I thought Noble Prince was terrifically impressive the other day, especially since the Nolan Sisters thought he would come on an awful lot for the run. I think he's still a stand out bet at 25's, especially when you consider he ran so well for such a long way in the County last year (and was hampered), giving a decent amount of weight to the horses in front of him.

He was always built like a Chaser to be amd seems fairly versatile regarding ground.

I'm already on Arvika at 25's, but think NP may become my first pick!
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Nov 10 16:10
Liked Royal Charms debut a lot. On ante-post.

Duffy, Finians Rainbow is the other one who looks a good price imo. According to connections he was always going to come into his own over fences, and the fact he got to within in a length of Reve Di Sivola is a good pointer to his natural abilty imo.  Also according to Barry Geraghty the horse absolutley devours his fences and jump like a stag. 33/1 is widely available.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 09 Nov 10 18:03
its 16s with most firms and 20s at the tote
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 09 Nov 10 18:04
sorry i meant royal charm not finians
By:
El Apache
When: 09 Nov 10 18:13
Rock Noir

Runs tomorrow - this could be the one. Worth a poke at 50`s.
By:
duffy
When: 09 Nov 10 18:51
finians travelled so well over hurdles....and certainly travelled the best in the neptune before getting out-stayed...if he transfers that to fences he'll be exciting...and yes it's encouraging listening to geraghty talk about the horse.
By:
revedesivola
When: 09 Nov 10 19:27
entered in a 2 half mile chase at chelters on friday i think. dont believe all tavelling like the winner until outstayed businessBlush
By:
duffy
When: 09 Nov 10 19:30
2 miler on sunday too
By:
dananderson
When: 09 Nov 10 19:34
how impressive was my  boy royal charm?
By:
duffy
When: 09 Nov 10 19:45
very impressive round of jumping
By:
revedesivola
When: 09 Nov 10 19:50
thought he was smashin today
By:
dananderson
When: 09 Nov 10 20:22
classs class class this lad . just bit worried if he dopesnt go well on a decent surface. only seen the last 3 fences
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 09 Nov 10 20:34
dan, do you like any horses trained by anybody else?
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 09 Nov 10 20:39
id rather take 20s about royal charm than 10s on medermit....at the moment
By:
fearless punter
When: 09 Nov 10 20:46
Any thoughts why Reve de Sivola much stronger in the RSA market rather than Arkle? Seems perfect Arkle profile(as pointed out on RUK tonight); highly-rated/tried as hurdler, stays further than two miles but probably not three, doesn't mind a bit of 1st day cut etc etc. Have connections pointed the way or is it just punter-led? Ta. P.S Daryl Jacobs: discuss.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 09 Nov 10 21:09
mount has indicated rsa
By:
Waterwheel Inc.
When: 09 Nov 10 21:40
I read (to be fair, some time ago) that the 2m4f novice event was favoured over the RSA for Reve de Sivola, is this no longer the case?

On a similar note, Henderson has said 2m4f will be Finian's Rainbow's trip.

I don't know about anyone else, but with this new novices two and a half miler at the festival I'm reluctant to go moving in on any horse for the Arkle this year that looks anything less than an out and out two miler.
By:
Joist
When: 09 Nov 10 22:05
Dananders, your pants are still encrusted with the **** excreted over Sang Bleu despite his not jumping a fence yet. Give them a wash before you start about Royal Charm!
By:
Joist
When: 09 Nov 10 22:05
Laugh at j1zz being filtered
By:
dananderson
When: 09 Nov 10 23:06
o balls to sang bleu hes 1 for next year. royal charm has always been my number 1 arkle horse. on anotheer topic my alcoholic waste of space uncle who has just come out of hospital had a pound luky 15 uptday 3 grand 100 my dads collecting it tomorrow. im bit jealous the guys a waste of space
By:
revedesivola
When: 09 Nov 10 23:55
i heard im goin 4 the 2 and a half mile race but that was at the start of the season so persumably whn i blow everyone away in the early part of the season ill then be aimed at a grade 1
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Nov 10 09:05
THE Paul Nicholls-trained Royal Charm was halved in price for the Irish Independent Arkle Chase after impressing on his chasing debut at Exeter on Tuesday.


William Hill, Coral and Stan James offered 16-1 (from 33) following his 22-length stroll in the Desert Orchid Restaurant Beginners' Chase. Paddy Power also went 16-1 as a first show, although Nicholls was quick to play down his status as a major Arkle contender.

"I've always thought the world of him and chasing was always going to be his game," Nicholls said.

"I'm not sure if the Arkle is the right race for him. We'll take it step by step.

"His next race will be either back here over two miles three furlongs next month or the Henry VIII at Sandown [December 4]."

Sent off an 8-13 chance, Royal Charm had not ranfor 283 days but produced a polished round of jumping under Noel Fehily.
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Nov 10 09:05
Just a note of caution if anyone is thinking of backing him ..
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