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The Arkle - early season ramblings

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Replies: 910
By:
dananderson
When: 20 Oct 10 21:08
nicholls said about royal charm that he doesnt stay 2m 4 or didnt last time out . hes always been my fancy for this
By:
dananderson
When: 23 Oct 10 00:06
jut bought the ng horses guide book and like how nicholls says hes in no doubt who hes most excited about and thats royal charm and like willies comments regarding quel esprit
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Oct 10 17:40
Medermit .. he is a horse who usually improves as the season goes one .. but he'll need to. I thought he looked average today, if we're thinking Arkle contenders. He brush through a few of the fences and didn't fill you with great confidence each time he took off imo .. the race itslef was a complete non-event with the 2nd fav becoming a NR and the 3rd fav unseating 3 out when travelling just as well as the winner and was actually conceding 6lb to Medermit. He needs to improve, but he might.  Should be about 25/1 based on that performance, I reckon.
By:
rhinestone
When: 23 Oct 10 17:51
me too sint.

Just text Arvika, said he's seen nothing to worry him yet.
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Oct 10 17:53
lol.

Immediately after I said he should be about 25/1, I checked the market and there is £11 available to lay at 12/1 .. and just looking through the opposition .. I reckon you want a little bit of a dark horse here .. Arvika fits that profile well.
By:
Mickie D
When: 23 Oct 10 18:15
nothin to trouble arvika thus far
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 23 Oct 10 18:16
Agree Cool

We still have Spirit River to come though. Cool
By:
rhinestone
When: 23 Oct 10 18:17
TD - I've dabbled the 25/1 Spirit River for the new race Cool
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 23 Oct 10 18:21
Didn't know you could bet on that ! :O
By:
Lieutenant Bravado
When: 23 Oct 10 18:27
Spirit not a novice, i would ask for my money back lol
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 23 Oct 10 18:28
I thought it was cleared up that he is a novice still.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 23 Oct 10 18:29
In what way shape or form can Spirit River still be a novice please? Confused

Very interesting Arkle horse for me
By:
rhinestone
When: 23 Oct 10 18:31
VC BS SJ have it priced up TD.
By:
uncle jam
When: 23 Oct 10 18:35
None of you taken by Kilmurry's win last week? Thought he won with a bit in hand against a half-decent yardstick in Ghizao.
By:
ben10
When: 23 Oct 10 18:36
Lieutenant Bravado Joined: 26 Nov 09
Replies: 617 23 Oct 10 18:27 
Spirit not a novice, i would ask for my money back lol


We've already been through this, definitely is a novice
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 23 Oct 10 18:41
Very nice performance UJ, but is he really a grade 1 horse ?
By:
uncle jam
When: 23 Oct 10 19:42
Evening gunny Happy

Only time will tell, but if he was from a more illustrious yard he'd be half the price he is now for the Arkle.
By:
Mickie D
When: 23 Oct 10 19:44
i think kilmurry is decent, he clearly improved at chelt from galway but i think he will have to improve at least another stone to threaten the principals in march.  i do think the new 2m 4 grade 2 could be tailor made for him (maybe quel esprit too)....
By:
uncle jam
When: 23 Oct 10 20:52
2m 4f for Christ's sake. Remember the 'Will he, won't he?' for My Way de Solzen, Tidal Bay, etc. etc? Becomes even worse now...an absolute joke imo.

Anyway, just watched that Kilmurry run again and I'm even more impressed. Gave Ghizao eight pounds and a thumping. He definitely quickened well enough to warrant a go at the Arkle, he looks like a chaser and at 5, I'd guess improvement is a strong possibility.

I know it's early days but those ahead of him in the market either haven't impressed on debut, or have yet to jump a fence in public. Except for Loosen My Load who I'm not sure is quick enough to win an Arkle.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 23 Oct 10 21:47
ive laid the 11quid at 12s,need to improve but just might..
By:
dananderson
When: 24 Oct 10 03:16
johson was very kind to captain chris yday but the horse seems to have a big tendancy to hang right . not an arkle winner imo
By:
sintonian
When: 24 Oct 10 10:15
Spot on,Dan,imo.

I like the horse, he is obviously talent. But if you watch his run at Cheltenham last season and seem hang like a barn door around the bend then there is not any conceivable way you could back this horse for the Arkle, imo. He may grow out of it, but it will take time.

Racing Demon used to hang to his right badly as a youngster and he still did it as an older horse.
By:
sintonian
When: 24 Oct 10 10:15
* see him hang
By:
Reyes
When: 24 Oct 10 21:30
(logs in to jump to defence of CC)

ran straight as a dye yesterday, jumped superbly. Tried to close up, once beaten wasn't punished (over a trip too far)
This horse is the real deal. Keep the faith.
By:
eric_morris
When: 24 Oct 10 22:42
Worth waiting to see if Get Me Out Of Here is redirected back over fences again ... they seem all coy about his target, no plans apparently on a Festival race ... interesting still.
By:
rhinestone
When: 25 Oct 10 17:00
eric_morric:-

Get Me Out Of Here, will be good enough to run in the Champion hurdle.
By:
aka
When: 27 Oct 10 11:31
I see Noble Prince runs in a beginners chase at Punchestown today. Not at all sure what to expect, but I'll be interested to see how he goes.

The more highly rated hurdlers turning to fences this season that have been tested so far (Medermit and Celestial Halo) have not looked especially impressive, though it is still early days with the two horses mentioned. Punjabi could be interesting over fences, but he lacks a bit in size for chasing. We have still to see Muirhead, but he doesn't strike me as being the most natural jumper and there are questions about his finishing speed over two miles.

If you look beyond those more highly rated hurdlers among the Arkle contenders, then you are getting down to the kind of hurdles rating that Noble Prince has. There are a few bits of form over hurdles with this one that read quite well, including a clear defeat of Zarito at Punchestown and finishing ahead of Muirhead at Gowran Park. His fifth in the Country Hurdle was also creditable given he was carrying the highest weight in the top five and the winning distance was not that great.

He's in a reasonably competitive race today for a beginner's chase, though clearly he would be the pick on hurdles form. Saludos is in there and, on appearance, could well make into a nice chaser at the right level. Healys Bar is hard to catch right, but has put in some big runs over hurdles. Bob Lingo would be in with a shout too. But really these are all horses Noble Prince ought to be beating, if he takes to fences.

Noble Prince ran well enough over two miles as a hurdler, though he also got further. I like to see some evidence that they can stay further than two miles in an Arkle horse. So this one is potentially interesting, but deservedly very much an outsider in the Arkle market at this early stage.
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Oct 10 11:39
hate backing flat bred horses so layed celestal at skinny odds and happy days. backed noble prince todat tho. i must be going soft in the head
By:
aka
When: 27 Oct 10 12:51
Yes, that may well prove the fly in the ointment, though it should be enough of a test this afternoon to form a fair idea of what can be expected in terms of his aptitude for jumping fences.
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Oct 10 13:30
i actually think he will win, even though he has pedigree against him
By:
alexmillwall
When: 27 Oct 10 13:58
saludas is likely to take them at a decent pace which bodes well for noble prince.. im just not so sure 2m is his trip with a few new horses in the race i dont like the price
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Oct 10 14:05
carberry is on he ball these days so im not worried
By:
aka
When: 27 Oct 10 14:27
I certainly think two miles wasn't quite far enough for him over hurdles. If Saludas takes them around at a decent pace, as you say, that should play to Noble Prince's strength class and possibly stamina wise. It should also make it enough of a test of his jumping to make a reasonable assessment of what he might be capable of at a higher level.

I just think the Arkle market is very interesting in the way it is forming at the moment. Understandably, the top rated hurdlers in the market are still accounting for the shorter odds, but I am yet to be convinced there is a really natural chaser among them (not in the way that last season Sizing Europe quickly convinced that he would translate his hurdling ability very readily into good chase form). That makes me interested in looking for potential value lower down in the market this time.

Noble Prince may have just a bit more class than his 146 hurdling rating would suggest, and he is mildly interesting in some other respects too. Enough there to make me interested in seeing how he goes today, at least.

I suspect there may be a few lower down in the Arkle market who, if they do manage to make a good debut over fences, would not see their prices for the Arkle collapse that much immediately. A few selective investments for the Arkle in that type of horse after their first run over fences might pay dividends, if those at the head of the current ante-post market continue to disappoint.
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 27 Oct 10 15:26
nice perfomance from Noble Prince.
By:
aka
When: 27 Oct 10 15:27
Did it nicely enough - would have liked to have a little more pace on, but was reasonably neat over the fences, I thought, given he has not quite the scope of some of the others.
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Oct 10 15:44
got him at 11/10. i was expecting a lttle more but theyre 2 in form men
By:
aka
When: 27 Oct 10 20:30
Yes, I thought he might be a bit higher today. I had to go out, so wasn't monitoring the market on here all day, but I think the price went out to around 2.4 at one stage.

It would be good to see him in the Drinmore now. As the assistant trainer said after the race today, Noble Prince may lack a gear against the top two milers. However, the intention seems to be to keep him to 16-20f this season. He is perhaps one who could creep into contention in a better race if, as often happens in novice chases, those at the front take it on a bit too keenly.

They said he settled better today. My impression from last season was that he possibly has a bit more in the locker than he showed over hurdles, if they could get him to settle better.
By:
Quvega
When: 28 Oct 10 01:11
Thought his jumping seemed more assured and confident than Medermits did at the weekend. Prob going at slower pace but looked far more at ease to me.
By:
aka
When: 28 Oct 10 10:50
Yes, the fences are big enough at Punchestown and there are just about enough undulations on the course to make it a fair test of jumping for a beginner. I thought the jockey got him nicely switched off. Got slightly sideways over a couple of the early fences, but generally seemed to be popping them quite nicely. I liked the way he took the last two fences when there was a bit more pressure on. He wasn't put off at all by Saludas jumping close to him and untidily over the last; made me think he might make into a braver and calmer, more assured jumper than I was expecting. Also continued to pick up well again after being impeded by Saludas near the end.

Even if he continues to improve, in terms of the Arkle I always worry that the Irish novices often don't get enough of a test of jumping at speed over the winter in Ireland to form a strong judgement about how they would cope on better ground at Cheltenham in a fast run two miles. It becomes more of a worry with this one given that we know that, even if he continues to progress over fences, there are questions about whether he has the gears for two miles in top company (might just lack that bit of tactical speed to stay in contention in a race like the Arkle when they start to quicken or if meeting trouble in running).

Then again, a good engine allied to fluent jumping, I guess, can compensate a lot for what might be missing in terms of speed, in novice company in two mile chases. Arguably, the last five Arkle winners lacked something in terms of speed over two miles when compared with some of the top two mile hurdlers-turned-chasers they competed against. Outside of novice chases, each of those Arkle winners is/was probably better suited to 20f or further in top company. Not that there are any strong grounds at this stage for thinking Noble Prince might make up into a live Arkle contender. But if it turns out to be a weak year for the Arkle, and the horse continues to progress, he might certainly be worth his place in the line up and you would then hope he has the same jockey as yesterday.
By:
Extreme Conviction
When: 29 Oct 10 18:17
Big test for Muirhead on Sunday at Cork. Farringdon's already run to an RPR of 153, Beau Michaels already won a Grade 3 as well as 3 other winners in the field and the useful maiden Sam Adams who has form tieing in with Lenabane and Zaarito.
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