Correct Hussard, currently the best value in any Cheltenham market. This horse has asserted his superiority and is still 6s going straight there, only Mikael D'Haguenet vs Noble Prince decider to come.

Budd - Can you explain your reasoning behind you don't think Ghizao will win the Arkle. Best trainer who has the two best home CC entries to run him with at home. Murphy reckons he wasn't at his best today and he's given weight and a thumping to good horses.

Finian's Rainbow won a three horse race and before the season was considered a 2m 4f horse. Suddenly he is Henderson's big hope cos the others have been humped by Ghizao.

Ghizao is a worthy favourite as he has put together two very good runs in competitive, if not brilliant, races.

In a very weak looking year (so far anyway) imo the only ones he has to beat are Fininas Rainbow, Noble Prince and Mikael D'Haugenhet.

I was an early adopter of Finnians Rainbow fro the Arkle (immediately after last years Challow if I'm honest) but until he runs again in a better race it is impossible to know how good he is. Having siad that he was slightly better than Ghizao over hurdles (and looked a much pacier type to me) and he looked a natural on his debut and was clearly doing everything right at home before that.

If I'm honest Mikael looks much the likeliest winner if Mullins aims him at the race but with him having at least 4 options (I expect he'll be entered in all 3 novice chases, the Gold Cup and possibly the World Hurdle) I can't be backing him at the current prices.

16/1, worth a saver ?

Hussard,
I think that FR is a better horse.He thrashed him in the Neptune.Both horses have proved they can jump,i think FR is classier and will prove it come March.
I could be wrong,fair enough if so,but thats what i think.

And he has gone back to 2m cos he was not getting home well enough over 2 and half,and would not be the 1st Arkle winner to go back in distance,although he got home a lot better than Ghizao,who i imagine was also thought of as a 2 and half horse,given that he ran in the longer novice race,chosen by the best trainer as you say he is.

am gutted but am striking CC off the shortlist now. Yes, i still think he'll be better on spring ground but the jumping RH is a big no-no now for me. You just can't give ground away in a race like the Arkle, you have to be bullet proof.

Ghizao for all his ability just doesn't look like an Arkle winner to me. beating horses with question marks on soft (winter soft) ground a diff ball game to travelling and jumping at speed. (just my opinion)

All aboard the Mikael bus now, let's hope he bolts up tomorrow.
Cheers for all comments on here, a good thread.

Mullins dosen't seem keen on the RSA for MDH (maybe the way Cooldine has run since his RSA win is something to do with that) so I reckon it will be the Arkle or the Gold Cup - tomorrows race should help make up his mind[;)].

A 7/1 shot Each way in a novice chase 3 months before the race is your idea of the bet of the season,we obviously differ my friend.

A nice performance by Ghizao conceding the weight, although not convinced by what he beat today. The second horse wants to go right handed in the future imo.

I have backed MDH who is not short of pace, at least not on the evidence of what I saw a few years ago, despite some suggesting otherwise so we will see what tomorrow brings.

oh dear^

My take on the Arkle picture at the moment, haven’t had a bet yet!

Nicholls stated before Ghizao’s chase debut that he would need the race, and there would be plenty of improvement to come. He was spot on, since then he has recorded two impressive victories, and is now the clear favourite. Solid jumper of a fence and has form at Prestbury Park. Only negative for me is his low hurdle rating, only achieved a rating of 135, and recently this race has gone to higher rated hurdlers who embark on a chase career. Best price 7/1.

Ghizao has beaten Captain Chris twice now, latest giving him 10lbs, there no way you could bet him for the Arkle now after yesterdays performance, jumping right etc. Only hope would be for him to improve for better festival ground. Best price 25/1.

Ghizao also showed Loosen My load a clean pair of heels at Cheltenham and I can’t see that one reversing the form, even if he gets good ground that he seems to need, needs further than 2miles.

Medermit his jumping is not good enough and is a shocking price, this is the Arkle. Obviously has the class but needs to improve.

Surfing was also safely put in his place yesterday, but that was only his first run in this country and improvement could be forthcoming but you'd have to wait and see.

Finians Rainbow won a three runner affair at Newbury and is 10/1 second favourite for this race! He’s not a betting proposition at this price, need to see him fencing in a big field. Bags of potential mind, so if you have the fancy prices you’ll be happy I guess.

Noble Prince, made a solid debut, but he only beat Healys Bar who has went on and got stuffed in better company since. His best form as a hurdler was over a trip last season, I know you need to stay in this race, but I just can’t see him winning an Arkle.

Kilmurry, bit of a forgotten horse, 50/1 with spirting odds available. Beat Ghizao (improved since) easily over C&D in a fast time. Good ground seems important to him and he’s been put away for a summer campaign. Plenty of time yet to consider him for a bet, 50/1 too big imo.

If Mikael De Haguenet turned up in this race, he would p1ss all over this lot, he’s the class act. His return from injury and debut over fences showed he retains his ability and he jumped superbly before he slipped. All talk has been about the RSA but I think he will turn up in this.

Trying to second guess Mullins on his festival targets is not to be advised. At the start of the season I was looking forward to seeing Thousand Stars chasing and thought he would end up his Arkle runner, but he was hurdling yesterday. I think Quell esprit will be his RSA horse and I don’t think he would like to see MDH bottoming out in the RSA (RE Cooldine) as this horse is his star novice chaser.

Mullins has always said MDH has plenty of pace, so my hunch (just a hunch) is that we will see him in the Arkle, far more prestigious than the new Jewsons race (Gold Cup - no way, plenty of time for that). The fact he's entered in this 2m1f race today signals hope.

Mullins will be looking at this race and he'll see it’s there for the taking. I’ve had a decent punt at 16/1 this morning.

gi mac,
thats a sound reasoning there for the arkle and i couldnt agree more.
i too was looking towards thousand stars or arvika to be mullins arkle horse but it would make sense for mdh to drop back if willies seeing enough speed.
dont forget about the possiblity of enterprise park being the rsa hope.

Wouldn't trust Mullins whatever the outcome. He does have a lot of RSA types Quel Espirit, Threefourtwo, Enterprise Park as well as MDH. All look RSA hopefuls but you won't know until March if you back one of his for any race.

Are you foregtting that he also beat Pandorama over hurdles. If that's not class form I don't know what is...

Fair enough he's only had one chase in which he slipped after popping the last, but everybody could see he was about to glide past Jessie's Dream

budd ... you try to spot Champions before they show you it.

My own eyes Buddeliea, every time I've seen the horse he oozes class for me, showed a nice turn of foot up the hill when winning the Neptune.

I just think the market leaders look much of a muchness this year, not a strong renewal, and if MDH turned up fit and well, he'd have them for breakfast.

flat kinda run from MDH there (Zaidpour like)
bounce?

Either way, disappointing, not sure what's next.

He doesnt jump well tbh but he was not anywhere near as good as he was last time out when cantering all over Jessie's Dream before knuckling over the last. Needs Ruby up imo.

Thought Torphicen ran well there, going wide most of the way, probably for the better ground. On decent ground he'll be better imo but it does boost the form of Quel Espirt.

eric_morris Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
Add contact | Send message When: 30 Dec 10 13:21 Mikael is a massive danger to the favs of either of the novice chases.

Agree Eric - you'd have to be worried that he'd fall and bring one of them down (whilst jumping off at an SP of bigger that 20/1 himself) [;)]