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Not everybody is looking forward to spring... Andrew Clarke assesses the relegation markets and explains why a close look at the fixtures lists should inform your betting on battle to avoid the drop.

One of the most interesting markets in this most unpredictable of Premier League seasons has to be that of relegation. Traditionally the number of points needed to avoid the drop has been set at 40 but no club has needed that many since 2002/3 when West Ham went down with 42. But the signs are that this term the tally will be on the up again, mainly because no side is already doomed.

No side in the bottom half of the table is safe yet, but at this time of year momentum is key so recent form needs to be looked at. By that rationale Fulham and Aston Villa in 12th and 15th respectively can be discounted, having both picked up nine points in their last six games, a total only five teams have bettered over that period, all of whom are in the top six. Blackburn Rovers in 11th haven't been near the bottom yet and that doesn't look likely to change; Everton in 13th have never been relegated from the top flight and despite being just three points above the drop zone they have fared relatively well recently.

That leaves Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Blackpool are sinking like a stone, although last time out they halted a run of five consecutive defeats by picking up a point at home against Villa. Five of their remaining 12 games are against top five teams and a May schedule of Tottenham Hotspur away, Bolton Wanderers at home and then Manchester United away is tough. Even more telling perhaps is that they only have two encounters with the fellow relegation contenders as outlined here so 2.36 is a very tempting price.

Birmingham are heading in the opposite direction, with eight points in their last six outings. Alex McCleish's men are at Wembley for the Carling Cup final this weekend but after that two of their next three fixtures are home to West Brom and away to Wigan and good results there would see them surge away from trouble. That's exactly what most people expect, according to the odds, and there's very little point in backing them at 5.9 or laying at 6.0.

Midlands rivals West Brom dispensed with Roberto DiMatteo after just three league wins in 16 matches. It remains to be seen what effect Roy Hodgson's appointment will have but a snatched point at home to Wolves on Sunday wasn't a great start especially as it followed the surrender of a 3-0 lead against West Ham in their previous game. The situation is desperate at the Hawthorns and 2.48 to go down is surely too good to miss.

Wolves are bottom and only Blackpool have worse recent form but there is hope for Mick McCarthy's side. Wins over Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have proved they are capable of big performances and on paper have the easiest run in. They only face one top six team and home games against Blackpool and West Brom will be crucial. Odds of 2.02 for the drop seems fair.

West Ham have been in the bottom three all season save for a couple of days at the end of 2010 and according to the odds are nailed on for the drop at 1.58. Manager Avram Grant's been down amongst the dead men for even longer after his tenure at Portsmouth and they still have to play Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool but the Israeli has made a habit of springing surprises and something tells me they could be worth laying at 1.64.

The Hammers travel to Wigan on the penultimate weekend for a game that both clubs will be hoping still matters by the time it comes around. With just one win in their last six, the Latics now face Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs and Chelsea in their next five. By mid-April they could have one foot in the grave and at 1.64 are currently second favourites to be playing championship football come August.

Recommended bets: Back Blackpool and West Brom to go down at 2.36 and 2.38, and lay West Ham at 1.64.


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The last time these two teams met in an international tournament, it was the men in orange who secured a famous victory. Can they spring another surprise?


London Start Time: 09:00
Venue and conditions


The Vidharbha Cricket Association Stadium in Nagpur has only hosted two one day internationals, but both were high scoring affairs and scores in excess of 300 will be the norm here. Teams winning the toss in India invariably bat first as the pitches tend to help slow bowlers in the second half of the game, but an extra complication in Nagpur is the possibility of dew later on in the daygame, which will make it harder for the spinners to grip the ball.

Team News
There are no injury problems for the Netherlands and theirs is a pretty settled team. Assuming Graeme Swann has fully recovered from his back problem, England are likely to want to play two spinners here so their decision is whether to go with six batsmen, in which case Ravi Bopara will keep his place, or five, which will enable them to play Tim Bresnan as the third seamer.

Match Odds
If you fancy an upset in this game, you will get plenty of reward for your optimism, with the Netherlands available at around 15.0 But there is precious little evidence that they will be able to repeat their surprise victory over England in the 2009 World Twenty20. They lost all bar one of their warm-up games, which included a thrashing by Sri Lanka and haven't played much fifty over cricket in the last 12 months.

They are handy with the bat and in Ryan ten Doeschate, Alexei Kervezee and Bas Zuiderent they have some big hitters. But their bowling, ten Doeschate aside, is featherweight and they will leak plenty of runs on these flat pitches. England's players may feel weary and jaded after a long winter, but even operating at less than full power, they should have more than enough for the Netherlands.

Top Batsman
Ryan ten Doeschate is in good form at the moment, hitting a powerful 98 not out against Kenya, but the pick for top Netherlands batsman is opener Alexei Kervezee at 5.5. Probably the most talented batsman in the squad, who will look to lay a platform and is capable of compiling a big score.

The decision to place Kevin Pietersen at the top of the order could be a masterstroke for England and it is a role he is clearly relishing. Against the rather tame attack of the Netherlands he has an ideal opportunity to get his World Cup off to a good start and should be backed at 4.0

Featured Market
This is a high scoring ground, the two games here have seen three centuries and five half-centuries so 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market seems a good bet at 1.75 or better.

Best Bet: Alexei Kervezee to top score for Netherlands at 5.5


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Last year's double winners have been a pale shadow of their former selves this time around and there are signs that this could be a long-term decline, says Richard Aikman.


So where do Chelsea go from here? Out of the FA Cup, out of the League Cup, and by Carlo Ancelotti's own admission, out of the Premier League running as well (they are [26] to remain champions this season). On Tuesday they take on FC Copenhagen in the UEFA Champions League, where defeat is unthinkable. So how does Carletto steer Chelsea out of the storm?

FC Copenhagen were every group winners desired round of 16 opponents, but now you have to wander whether they are worth backing at 5.9 to beat the Blues in Denmark. Indeed the 6.6 about Jesper Gronkjaer and Co reaching the quarter-finals at Chelsea's expense has to be considered, with Chelsea's morale sinking deeper with every passing match.

The Londoners' demise this season has been as unexpected as it has been sudden and it is difficult to comprehend exactly how a double-winning side can unravel so spectacularly over the course of a few months. Before the £72m double swoop for Fernando Torres and David Luiz in January, Roman Abramovich was accused of allowing his side to age without investing in new talent, but Yossi Benayoun, on a free, and Ramires, for £22m, did arrive in the summer to compensate for the outgoing Joe Cole and Deco.

If there was an oversight by Chelsea management in terms of their transfer policy it was perhaps the failure to replace Ricardo Carvalho until last month, but John Terry, Alex and Branislav Ivanovic are three tough and dependable defenders who formed part of the second-best defence in the country last season. Furthermore, despite their problems this time around, Chelsea have actually conceded the fewest goals of any Premier League team this term.

All of which suggests that it is up front where things have gone pear-shaped. This is strange in itself considering that the Blues were by far and away the highest scorers last term, amassing a staggering 103 league goals. After 26 matches this campaign they have managed just 46 - 11 fewer than top-scoring Manchester United.

There is a very good reason for this: Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba have been missing for much of the season. Drogba scored 29 league goals last season and Lampard 22 - a scary return for a midfielder - as Chelsea stormed to the title, but this year malaria has clearly debilitated the striker, who is so dependent on his physical strength for his goals (he has mustered nine in the league this season), while Lampard's long-standing groin problem has reduced him to 11 Premier League starts and a measly three goals. The Blues have effectively lost 50% of their firepower.

Lampard wasn't particularly missed at the start of the season (he was injured after the first three games of the campaign) because Ancelotti's men had such a benign fixture list. When the England midfielder was first sidelined the Blues still battered West Ham, Zilina and Blackpool and then overcame an understrength Arsenal side missing Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie.

But once the tougher sides began to present themselves the miserable run of results began. Lampard's energy and goals were sorely lacking, and not even the return of Michael Essien, who missed the second half of last season but has been a shadow of his former self since, could compensate.

Worse still for Chelsea is that since Lampard's return, they have shown little sign of reversing the trend. They have won as many matches in those 12 games as they have lost (four), which suggests that either tactics are wrong or confidence is shot. Either way, Chelsea are now fifth in the league worth laying at 1.46 to finish in the Top Four.

And finishing fifth will constitute a disaster for Abramovich, who is desperate for European glory, and possibly also Chelsea. The Russian's money has bought everything else there is worth winning in the game but who knows whether he will be prepared to stick around for another season, especially if it means having to endure the comparative ignominy of Europa League football.

The season after next UEFA's Fair Play regulations won't even permit the sort of wanton spending that has taken place to date, suggesting that Abramovich's holy grail is becoming evermore elusive. That is why the Chelsea owner has shelled out £50m for Fernando Torres; the house is winning and so he has placed one last mammoth gamble on Red 9.

But Torres isn't the answer. Chelsea need a creative midfielder. Someone to unlock defences and create chances for the likes of Drogba and Nicolas Anelka, who have too often been burdened with taking on the burden of goal-making. And the irony is they already have one. Josh McEachran may not be 18 for another nine days, but he is exactly what Chelsea have been crying out for this season. A player who is comfortable in possession and blessed with great vision, Ancelotti should have given him more than a paltry six run-outs as a substitute this season. If he had, Chelsea might not be in this mess in the first place.

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It's the calm after the storm as far as Super League XVI is concerned this weekend. After a marathon of live Millennium Magic action last week, the Sky cameras will be at just two games for round two.

Hull play host to Leeds at the KC Stadium on the first of those on Friday evening and the performances of the two sides last weekend could barely have been more contrasting. Richard Agar's side raced into a 14-0 lead inside as many minutes against their fierce rivals KR, only to leak 28 unanswered points as they eventually slumped to a 34-22 defeat.

The Airlie birds have consistently been amongst the biggest spenders in Super League, but whilst last year's sixth place finish was a creditable effort, they are yet to hint at the progression required to challenge the big four.

It was noticeable how quickly Hull began to tire last week and, like last year, it seems too much is being asked of Danny Houghton and Craig Fitzgibbon. The signing of Sam Obst during the week may take some pressure off Houghton, but they still go into the game with too many players out of position. Richard Whiting will never have the pace to be a full back, Jordan Turner isn't up to scratch as a stand-off in Super League and Lee Radford is a hard-working back-row forward, not a prop.

Last week's unlikely victory over Bradford showed just how dangerous the Rhinos are when the game begins to break up. They looked dead and buried when 28-10 down in the second half, but as the Bulls began to falter, Leeds came into their own, the pace of Burrow and Jones-Bishop proving all too much for a tiring Bradford side.

With that in mind, I expect Hull to again start strongly, but the lack of balance in the side will surely play to Leeds' strengths over the 80 minutes, and just like the last meeting between the clubs at the KC Stadium in September, I fancy Leeds to come back from a half-time deficit and clinch the points.

Saturday night's game between Castleford and Huddersfield looks a little easier to call. Both teams impressed when getting off to winning starts in Cardiff, but Huddersfield faced the far sterner test as they beat Warrington 28-18.

Quite possibly the most underrated player in Super League, Castleford's Rangi Chase was a joy to watch as he steered his side to a comfortable victory over Wakefield on Saturday, scoring one try and having a hand in three others.

However, Chase won't be expecting such an armchair ride this weekend and I can't see how the Castleford pack can stop Huddersfield getting on top and limiting the quality of ball he has to work with.

Huddersfield's pack was on the front foot from the word go last weekend and I don't rate the Tigers forwards even close to that of Warrington's. That will make all the difference here and the away side have to be backed conceding -7.5pts.

Recommended bets:
Back Hull/Leeds @ 7.0 in the half-time/full-time market
Back Huddersfield Giants -7.5 pts at 1.91

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It may smell of desperation, panic and 'fuzzy thinking' but the very late decision to use Kevin Pietersen as an opener alongside Andrew Strauss may yet prove to be a shrewd one by Andy Flower, says Ralph Ellis.

I know that since 1969 you've been able to vote at 18. But 42 years later you've only got to look in most card shops to know that 21 is still considered the magic number at which you grow up.

I wonder then if there will be some significance about Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Strauss becoming England's 21st opening partnership in just four years of One Day Internationals since the last World Cup. Coach Andy Flower is clearly hoping his latest experiment will signal a coming of age for his team.

It's an odd time to be testing the theory. Flower has built his very considerable reputation in two years in charge on meticulous planning, thorough preparation, and the execution of his plans and theories. Yet here we are, five days from England's first game against Holland, still trying to find a solution to a problem that seems to have dogged the side ever since One Day cricket was invented.

The original plan was for Steven Davies to keep wicket and do the job. Then Flower decided to ditch the Surrey man and hand that dual role to Matt Prior. A series of failures against Australia later and now it is Pietersen who will have to lead the way.

He started out yesterday with a typical KP cameo - three fours and a straight six before playing half a shot to get himself out, having scored 24 from 28 balls. Canada's Rizwan Cheema later put that into context by blasting 93 in 71 balls as his side fell 16 runs short of pulling off a famous victory. But as ever Pietersen talked a good game, insisting "I'm excited, I have a nice little feeling about it".

Actually, so have I, and even if it's a bit last minute I can understand Flower's thinking. Few players hit the ball harder or bat more aggressively than Pietersen, but at his best he's not, and never has been, just a slogger. Like Ian Botham many years ago he can be technically correct, and when Botham was promoted to open in one day cricket he responded with both discipline and runs. If KP does the same then a current price of 27.0 for him to be the tournament's top scorer looks well worth a flutter. He's also 4.6 to be England's most successful batsman.

KP has denied rumours that this World Cup will be his swansong from One Day International cricket, but the clock is ticking on his career. His ego gives him a drive to be the star of the show, and in his world his 227 at Adelaide was almost certainly the defining innings that turned the Ashes series England's way. Now he is being offered a golden chance to be a World Cup hero for the second time in less than 12 months - don't forget he was top scorer in the side that won the Twenty20 trophy in the West Indies last May. It might just be the magic formula that brings England's coming of age in this format too.

Five things you might not know about Rizwan Cheema

1.Born August 1978 in Gujarat, Pakistan, and although his elder brother was a good club cricketer Rizwan didn't play himself because his family kept moving from there to Lahore and back again

2.He was 20 when he emigrated to New York where his elder sister already lived, and two years later went to Canada in search of work.

3.He joined Popeye's Cricket Club in Toronto - named after a food chain run by fellow Pakistani immigrant Faisal Malik - and his big hitting talent was immediately obvious. He was Canada's cricketer of the year in 2005.

4.He was 30 when he made his international debut, and in his second appearance hit 89 off 61 deliveries against the West Indies

5.He was one of just six players awarded central contracts in 2009 when Canada began to turn the national team professional.

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All the teams left in the FA Cup are three matches from a Wembley final in theory, but in reality they fall in two groups: those who can win the competition and those who can't.

Nowhere is the divide starker than in Saturday's late kick-off at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Crawley Town, but it is evident wherever a Premier League team has a tie against lower-league opposition. In those matches, with the scent of Wembley in their nostrils, Premier League teams tend to ram home their advantage.

In the past five seasons, top flight teams have had a 70% win rate against lower-league sides at the first time of asking from the fifth round onwards and upsets have been rare. And there is a bias towards over 2.5 goals (57%) in those games, as you would expect when there is a difference in class.

But the prospect of reaching Wembley has a different effect in all-Premier clashes. There, with the class gap much narrower, 55% have been under 2.5 goals in the past five seasons and the draw rate has been notably high at 36%.

That indicates a cagey aspect to those games with both sides nervous of throwing away their chance of going further in the competition. In games not involving two all-Premier teams, 55% have had over 2.5 goals.

The stats indicate that we should be looking for goals in these fifth-round ties: Birmingham v Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke v Brighton, Manchester United v Crawley, Orient v Arsenal, West Ham v Burnley and, eventually, when the winners of Everton v Chelsea host Reading. Where the odds beat the average, over 2.5 goals is worth backing.

And we should expect a low-scoring game, quite possibly a draw, between Fulham and Bolton.

*******

While most of the attention this weekend will be focused on the FA Cup, there is the not-so-small matter of a Black Country derby in the Premier League. West Brom host Wolves in the midday kick-off on Sunday in a match of huge significance locally and in terms of the relegation battle. The Baggies are in 17th, just one goal from the drop zone, and Wolves are bottom but only three points and two goals behind.

A big problem for Wolves, among many others, is their dire away record. While they have produced a string of inspired performances at home against the big teams, most notably when ending Manchester United's unbeaten run, Mick McCarthy's side just haven't got going on the road.

Their record of one win and 11 defeats in 13 trips puts them in the bottom three per cent of Premier League teams over the past decade in terms of away form and the big question for punters is whether there is any hope of turning that around.

Over the past decade, some of the teams with similarly poor away records at this stage of the season did achieve notable end-of-season runs, but the stats indicate there is a better than even-money chance that Wolves will manage no more than one win in their remaining six away games.

Mick McCarthy has plenty of 'previous' as a manager of poor away teams. At Sunderland he lost 16 out of 18 on the road in the Premier League and overall he has won only seven out of 50 as a top-flight boss.

The serial away losers that didn't show any improvement in their form managed just five wins out of 56 from now to the end of the season, which indicates that punters will be safe laying Wolves if they fall into that category. All the signs indicate that they will.

Recommended bets:
Back over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Brighton at 2
Back over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Burnley at 1.92
Back over 2.5 goals in Birmingham v Sheffield Wednesday at 1.92
Lay Wolves at 4.8 v West Brom

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On the face of it, the World Cup looks confusing: three host countries, 14 teams, 13 venues, 49 matches and six weeks to find a winner. But a much-maligned marathon of a tournament is actually the punters' friend.

Thanks to a projected draw and India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh somehow managing to convince the ICC they are deserving of a home draws in the knockout stages, no matter where they finish, it is pretty simple.

Simple in the regard that the tournament is heavily skewed in favour of India and Sri Lanka. On surfaces which the rest of the competing nations, Bangladesh and Pakistan excepted of course, find alien you won't be going far wrong by backing either MS Dhoni's team or Kumar Sangakkara's.

India and Sri Lanka are on the opposite sides of the draw so there is a very real possibility - in line with outright market - that the top two contest the final at the Wankhede stadium in Mumbai on April 2. Both team are just over evens to make the showpiece.

Those who have been paying attention may squeal 'hang on, you said the hosts were guaranteed home ties in the knockout stage so what happens if they have to play each other?'. Good question. Venues will be decided by the seedings for the tournament with India ranked above Sri Lanka, and the Lankans above Bangladesh.

The top four from two groups of eight will progress. Group A consists of Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya. In Group B are India, South Africa, England, West Indies, Bangladesh, Ireland and Holland.

Each winner of the group will play the fourth placed team in the opposite section in the quarter-finals with the second and third-placed teams playing off. You can check the draw here. If we used the odds as our guide to predict the semi-finals, it would look like this: Sri Lanka v South Africa, India v Australia.

Rarely do cricket World Cups respect the odds, however and there are sure to be upsets along the way. For example, 2.03 is available that not all of the Big Eight qualify. Indeed, Bangladesh should make the quarter-finals - they could torment West Indies and England in Mirpur and Chittagong respectively - and at 60.00 they represent an outstanding trading opportunity.

Pakistan are in the same boat at an attractive 11.00. Despite worries about corruption, they are far too big, especially with the skill and knowledge at their disposal on dusty wickets. They bat deep and in Umar Gul, Wahab Riaz, Sohail Tanvir, Shoaib Akhtar and an army of spinners they have the best bowling attack in the competition.

Tired England, who are 8.80, tepid West Indies at 22.00and torrid New Zealand are ruled out at a point bigger because of their awful record in Asia in the last five years. They have win-loss ratios of 0.60, 0.57 and 0.41 respectively.

Australia at 6.60 and 6.80 South Africa fare much better in this regard. If there is to be an upset it might just be that Australia claim a fourth consecutive title. With a win-loss ratio of 2.33 they have the best record of any side, including the hosts.

South Africa are organised and efficient but as a wise man once said 'choking is what happens when you stop playing with instinct'. The Proteas always play by numbers.

So that leaves us with the big one to answer: India or Sri Lanka? Easy. We let the odds be our guide. Sri Lanka are a mighty good price at 6.00 considering they have been set up to succeed while India are contracting too quickly at 4.30.

Neither outfit have been exactly firing in recent years - India are ranked fourth on wins with Sri Lanka just behind in fifth - but there is remarkable pressure on Dhoni's team to claim glory as the first main host to do so and, notably in the World Twenty20 in England, they have proven they don't like such a burden.

Recommended bets: Sri Lanka to win World Cup 6.00, Bangladesh trade to win World Cup at 60.00, Pakistan trade to win World Cup at 11.00

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With DA Points becoming the fifth straight triple-figure outsider to win in the States on Sunday, most golf punters have endured a tough beginning to 2011. At odds of 90.0, and that in a field restricted to 30 players, Kapalua champion Jonathan Byrd is the shortest priced winner on the PGA Tour schedule so far.

There is no need to panic, however, such is the nature of this wide-open sport. In direct contrast to the PGA Tour, the European equivalent produced three consecutive winning favourites in January, at decent enough prices to compensate for bad runs at other times. I'm a great believer in the law of averages when it comes to matters like this, and was not surprised to see that Race to Dubai sequence of favourites end with a shock winner in Qatar. One of the big names is going to bound to win in the States soon, and recent renewals of the Northern Trust Open suggest this could be the perfect time to take advantage.

Riviera is one of America's oldest courses, hosting a fixture since the 1920s. Most of the great champions have won here at least once, (although surprisingly not Tiger Woods). The last three renewals were won by Steve Stricker and Phil Mickelson (twice). Every winner since 2002 was shorter than 50.0, and during that period very few outsiders have even got into serious contention.

Given his course record and the fact we're overdue a winning favourite, there is an obvious temptation to back Mickelson at 9.0. Before those two Riviera titles, he threw the 2006 event away in not untypical style. His long game at last looked close to his best last week, topping the green in regulation stats, so I can't really offer an argument against.

I won't be getting involved though, for purely stubborn reasons. Phil is one of those players who punters either love or hate, usually depending on our previous betting experiences with him. Many have made regular profits on him at this time of year, others by taking him on at short odds. Steven Rawlings and I represent the two sides of that divide, and while I'm sure Steve will justifiably be backing his man, I don't intend to jinx him by breaking one of my golden rules - never back Mickelson in single figures.

In any case, there are plenty of world-class alternatives with similarly impressive course records, at much bigger prices. Stricker is hugely respected as defending champion, having also finished runner-up and 11th previously. Luke Donald has five top-15s from his last six visits, including top-sixes in the last three. Like Mickelson, Stricker and Donald have thrived here thanks to their short-game brilliance.

The most significant recent trend, though, has seen a spate of massive-hitters run up impressive figures, as they can attack this old course with impunity. JB Holmes has made three straight top-sevens at Riviera. Andres Romero the last two top-fives. Rory Sabbatini has won and twice gone close. Mickelson is, of course, at his very best on layouts where he can get away with waywardness off the tee.

Rain-softened fairways could exaggerate the trend further, so I'm going for a trio of top-class bombers. Few players are as widely tipped for a big 2011 than Dustin Johnson, (the most popular pick in our Ten to Follow competition), and it was hard to get an attractive price about his first few events. A couple of failures have resulted in a drift out to 26.0, which is good enough for me given how much he's improved since finishing third and 10th in the last two years here.

Another bomber with form around Riviera is recent winner Bubba Watson, who registered two top-20s long before his marked recent improvement. Bubba's performance to win at Torrey Pines was easily the best of his career, and bodes well for the lucrative weeks ahead. Odds of 46.0, on such a suitable track, rather under-estimate the chance of this in-form player following up quickly.

California favourite Anthony Kim is another with the perfect profile. A replica of Mickelson - wayward, inspirational and potentially devastating if able to avoid serious penalties. Although Kim's Riviera record is inferior to the others shortlisted, he may be consequently over-priced at 48.0, especially as he did finish ninth on his 2007 course debut. Kim's three PGA Tour titles all came on championship courses - Congressional, Quail Hollow and Redstone.

Recommended Bets: Dustin Johnson @ 26.0; Bubba Watson @ 46.0; Anthony Kim @ 48.0

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This year's Champions League, for the most part, has been devoid of any great drama ... and now, as the competition returns after its traditional Winter break, it remains to be seen whether a largely predictable tournament thus far for favourite backers will finally provide a few shocks and surprises.

But thankfully, whilst the usual suspects all made it safely through the preliminary groups, their passage wasn't without incident. Favourites like Arsenal didn't win Group H, defending champions Inter Milan failed to top Group A, Schalke pipped Lyon in Group B ... and so on.

Each an example of how this competition can see 'minor tremors' sent through the formbook ... so it'll be interesting to see if there are any greater seismic disturbances lined up for the next round of this year's tournament.

This week sees Barcelona (1.27), Valencia (1.76), AC Milan (1.80) and Roma (1.85) as the four jollies fully expected 'to qualify' for the QF's at the expense of Arsenal (4.6), Schalke (2.24), Spurs (2.24) and Shakhtar (2.16) respectively.

But cast your mind back to last year's competition. Underdogs like CSKA Moscow (Seville), Lyon (Real Madrid) and Inter Milan (Chelsea) all knocked out the favourites 'to qualify' at this very stage of the tournament. And it will surely happen again this year to one, or more, of the teams fancied to make it through to the QF's ... but which ones?

It probably won't be Barcelona. They face Arsenal in this round, after the Gunners could only finish second in their group. A very short price 'to qualify' on the exchange rates the Catalans as worthy favourites to progress ... and so does the formbook!

In last year's competition, at the QF stage, it was 2-2 at the Emirates before a Lionel Messi masterclass saw the Spanish champions trounce the English side 4-1 at the Camp Nou. Before that it was the 2005/06 final in Paris, Barca winning 2-1. Before that it was the group stages in 1999/2000 when Arsenal drew 1-1 in Spain ... only to lose 2-4 at their then home, Wembley.

All that you could say about Arsenal is were they to beat Barcelona (as, of course, Inter Milan did last year) then surely their claims to the outright title are vastly improved. The value, therefore, for die-hard backers of Arsene Wenger's team might be for the outright win 24.0 than simply this tie 4.6.

However, whilst it's hard to recommend Arsenal, their North London rivals Spurs may have stronger claims. Top scorers in the group stage (18) - albeit top conceders as well - they bested AC's city rivals for top spot in Group A, beating Inter 6-5 on aggregate. By comparison, AC scored the fewest goals (7) and collected the lowest number of points (8) of all the sides in the R16. Statistics which suggest underdogs Spurs have more than half a chance of upsetting the tie's favourites, AC.

And you wouldn't bet your life savings either on favourites Valencia, overcoming Schalke, or Roma, defeating Shakhtar Donetsk.

Valencia ran 'up to form' in chasing home Manchester United in Group C but Schalke were just as impressive in coming out on top of Lyon and Benfica in Group B. The Germans made the QF's in 2007/08 (losing 0-2 to Barca over two legs) but possibly the deciding factor for traders in making Schalke the outsiders is they played Valencia that season home and away in the group stage, drawing 0-0 in Spain but losing the return in Germany 0-1.

Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches. Led by Mircea Lucescu (ex Pisa, Brescia, Reggiana and Inter Milan coach) they can test a Roma side who qualified with modest results (P6 W3 D1 L2), conceded 11 times in those six games and are only mid-table in Serie A this season.

As we've seen in previous competitions, either Arsenal, Spurs, Schalke or Shakhtar (or one of next week's underdogs) can, and probably will, cause an upset ... and we should take advantage.

Recommended Bets
Arsenal to win the Champions League 24.0 - far better value than 4.6 to beat Barcelona
Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify 2.16

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Roberto Mancini claims to remain unaffected by Manchester City's growing status as one of the most disliked clubs in the country. His assertion is that the widespread opprobrium is born of envy and that, "everyone is so afraid because City in the next two years will be one of the top teams in Europe and it will be a problem for the other teams".

Mancini should probably focus more on ensuring he does actually qualify for the Champions League next season - the minimum requirement for someone who has spent over £150m in his 14 months in charge - before he starts talking in such lofty tones, but while he insisted on Friday that the criticism of his side was "not important to me," he did nonetheless suggest that a nerve had been struck when he said that City's treatment has been "unfair". "We are a positive team," he explained. "We try to play good football and we are trying to change our whole mentality."

City's newfound unpopularity is certainly not just a case of managerial paranoia on Mancini's part but neither is it purely down to the club's crass attempts at buying footballing success, Chelsea-style. The point is that City are far from positive. They are in fact quite the opposite.

Part of the problem is that nowadays Premier League success is defined by finishing in the top four, rather than in the top one, so Mancini's game plan is one of protecting his club's position by playing for the draw against leading sides like Arsenal and Manchester United and releasing the handbrake against the lesser lights.

You could even argue that there is nothing wrong with that. The trouble is if you are going to hatch such dull tactics you had better make sure they work - and on Saturday it didn't. Can you really be surprised by criticism when you spend £27m on an exciting young striker like Edin Dzeko and then leave him on the bench in such a crucial match as the Manchester derby?

With the injured Rio Ferdinand having to be replaced by the inexperienced Chris Smalling and United having just lost to bottom club Wolves, this was a golden opportunity to win local bragging rights, instill the belief that this side are capable of beating the big boys and throwing the title race open again.

Instead he Mancini played Aleksander Kolarov in attack. Only when City went behind did the Italian take 'positive' action, bringing on Dzeko and Shaun Wright-Phillips for James Milner and Kolarov - a move that brought an almost instant equaliser.

Of course Mancini couldn't care less how popular his side are if they finish in the top four in May, but on current form that is far from guaranteed. City may be third in the league right now - and 1.31 to finish in the top four this season) - but if Tottenham (2.16) and Chelsea (1.35) win their (one) and (two) games in hand respectively then Mancini's men will find themselves in fifth. And given that the men from Middle Eastlands have managed just one win in five matches (they have lost to Aston Villa and drawn with Notts County and Birmingham), now could be the time to lay Mancini's men in the Top 4 Finish market (1.5).

In the interests of balance it should be pointed out that Manchester United's 4-5-1 was also cautious. Rooney looked isolated in the early stages of the match as Sir Alex Ferguson also opted to keep his £27m man on the bench, but at least he brought Dimitar Berbatov - the Premier League's top goalscorer and 2.28 second-favourite to win the golden boot - on after City had equalised in a bid to win the game, rather than settle for a draw, which you feel Mancini would have done. As it is, Rooney's spectacular overhead kick had nothing whatsoever to do with Berbatov but fortune favoured the brave.

Apart from the 7-1 demolition of Blackburn this season United haven't pulled up any trees this season but despite their apparent ordinariness they are now odds-on favourites at 1.65 to win the league, and what was being billed as one of the most open title battles in years has now become a two-horse race between United and Arsenal 3.5 whose defence has come in for much criticism this season. But don't rule out Arsenal yet. In terms of the run-in, they only have United and Liverpool left to play at home, while the Red Devils must still go to Liverpool and Arsenal and play Chelsea twice.

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