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All the teams left in the FA Cup are three matches from a Wembley final in theory, but in reality they fall in two groups: those who can win the competition and those who can't.

Nowhere is the divide starker than in Saturday's late kick-off at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Crawley Town, but it is evident wherever a Premier League team has a tie against lower-league opposition. In those matches, with the scent of Wembley in their nostrils, Premier League teams tend to ram home their advantage.

In the past five seasons, top flight teams have had a 70% win rate against lower-league sides at the first time of asking from the fifth round onwards and upsets have been rare. And there is a bias towards over 2.5 goals (57%) in those games, as you would expect when there is a difference in class.

But the prospect of reaching Wembley has a different effect in all-Premier clashes. There, with the class gap much narrower, 55% have been under 2.5 goals in the past five seasons and the draw rate has been notably high at 36%.

That indicates a cagey aspect to those games with both sides nervous of throwing away their chance of going further in the competition. In games not involving two all-Premier teams, 55% have had over 2.5 goals.

The stats indicate that we should be looking for goals in these fifth-round ties: Birmingham v Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke v Brighton, Manchester United v Crawley, Orient v Arsenal, West Ham v Burnley and, eventually, when the winners of Everton v Chelsea host Reading. Where the odds beat the average, over 2.5 goals is worth backing.

And we should expect a low-scoring game, quite possibly a draw, between Fulham and Bolton.

*******

While most of the attention this weekend will be focused on the FA Cup, there is the not-so-small matter of a Black Country derby in the Premier League. West Brom host Wolves in the midday kick-off on Sunday in a match of huge significance locally and in terms of the relegation battle. The Baggies are in 17th, just one goal from the drop zone, and Wolves are bottom but only three points and two goals behind.

A big problem for Wolves, among many others, is their dire away record. While they have produced a string of inspired performances at home against the big teams, most notably when ending Manchester United's unbeaten run, Mick McCarthy's side just haven't got going on the road.

Their record of one win and 11 defeats in 13 trips puts them in the bottom three per cent of Premier League teams over the past decade in terms of away form and the big question for punters is whether there is any hope of turning that around.

Over the past decade, some of the teams with similarly poor away records at this stage of the season did achieve notable end-of-season runs, but the stats indicate there is a better than even-money chance that Wolves will manage no more than one win in their remaining six away games.

Mick McCarthy has plenty of 'previous' as a manager of poor away teams. At Sunderland he lost 16 out of 18 on the road in the Premier League and overall he has won only seven out of 50 as a top-flight boss.

The serial away losers that didn't show any improvement in their form managed just five wins out of 56 from now to the end of the season, which indicates that punters will be safe laying Wolves if they fall into that category. All the signs indicate that they will.

Recommended bets:
Back over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Brighton at 2
Back over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Burnley at 1.92
Back over 2.5 goals in Birmingham v Sheffield Wednesday at 1.92
Lay Wolves at 4.8 v West Brom

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