Betting.Betfair

All the teams left in the FA Cup are three matches from a Wembley final in theory, but in reality they fall in two groups: those who can win the competition and those who can't. Nowhere is the divide starker than in Saturday's late kick-off at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Crawley Town, but it is evident wherever a Premier League team has a tie against lower-league opposition. In those matches, with the scent of Wembley in their nostrils, Premier League teams tend to ram home their advantage. In the past five seasons, top flight teams have had a 70% win rate against lower-league sides at the first time of asking from the fifth round onwards and upsets have been rare. And there is a bias towards over 2.5 goals (57%) in those games, as you would expect when there is a difference...