Betting.Betfair

Roberto Mancini claims to remain unaffected by Manchester City's growing status as one of the most disliked clubs in the country. His assertion is that the widespread opprobrium is born of envy and that, "everyone is so afraid because City in the next two years will be one of the top teams in Europe and it will be a problem for the other teams".

Mancini should probably focus more on ensuring he does actually qualify for the Champions League next season - the minimum requirement for someone who has spent over £150m in his 14 months in charge - before he starts talking in such lofty tones, but while he insisted on Friday that the criticism of his side was "not important to me," he did nonetheless suggest that a nerve had been struck when he said that City's treatment has been "unfair". "We are a positive team," he explained. "We try to play good football and we are trying to change our whole mentality."

City's newfound unpopularity is certainly not just a case of managerial paranoia on Mancini's part but neither is it purely down to the club's crass attempts at buying footballing success, Chelsea-style. The point is that City are far from positive. They are in fact quite the opposite.

Part of the problem is that nowadays Premier League success is defined by finishing in the top four, rather than in the top one, so Mancini's game plan is one of protecting his club's position by playing for the draw against leading sides like Arsenal and Manchester United and releasing the handbrake against the lesser lights.

You could even argue that there is nothing wrong with that. The trouble is if you are going to hatch such dull tactics you had better make sure they work - and on Saturday it didn't. Can you really be surprised by criticism when you spend £27m on an exciting young striker like Edin Dzeko and then leave him on the bench in such a crucial match as the Manchester derby?

With the injured Rio Ferdinand having to be replaced by the inexperienced Chris Smalling and United having just lost to bottom club Wolves, this was a golden opportunity to win local bragging rights, instill the belief that this side are capable of beating the big boys and throwing the title race open again.

Instead he Mancini played Aleksander Kolarov in attack. Only when City went behind did the Italian take 'positive' action, bringing on Dzeko and Shaun Wright-Phillips for James Milner and Kolarov - a move that brought an almost instant equaliser.

Of course Mancini couldn't care less how popular his side are if they finish in the top four in May, but on current form that is far from guaranteed. City may be third in the league right now - and 1.31 to finish in the top four this season) - but if Tottenham (2.16) and Chelsea (1.35) win their (one) and (two) games in hand respectively then Mancini's men will find themselves in fifth. And given that the men from Middle Eastlands have managed just one win in five matches (they have lost to Aston Villa and drawn with Notts County and Birmingham), now could be the time to lay Mancini's men in the Top 4 Finish market (1.5).

In the interests of balance it should be pointed out that Manchester United's 4-5-1 was also cautious. Rooney looked isolated in the early stages of the match as Sir Alex Ferguson also opted to keep his £27m man on the bench, but at least he brought Dimitar Berbatov - the Premier League's top goalscorer and 2.28 second-favourite to win the golden boot - on after City had equalised in a bid to win the game, rather than settle for a draw, which you feel Mancini would have done. As it is, Rooney's spectacular overhead kick had nothing whatsoever to do with Berbatov but fortune favoured the brave.

Apart from the 7-1 demolition of Blackburn this season United haven't pulled up any trees this season but despite their apparent ordinariness they are now odds-on favourites at 1.65 to win the league, and what was being billed as one of the most open title battles in years has now become a two-horse race between United and Arsenal 3.5 whose defence has come in for much criticism this season. But don't rule out Arsenal yet. In terms of the run-in, they only have United and Liverpool left to play at home, while the Red Devils must still go to Liverpool and Arsenal and play Chelsea twice.

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/