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Manchester United v Ajax, Thursday 20:05, Five

The Manchester United starting line up might not be quite as strong, given that this second leg comes three days shy of a Premier League trip to Norwich, rather than on the brink of a free weekend as with the first, but the outcome should be the same.

The 2-0 victory achieved at the Amsterdam ArenA last week, and the fact that the likes of David de Gea, Rio Ferdinand, Nani and Wayne Rooney started there, supported Sir Alex Ferguson's claim that "it is a tournament we will try and win".

There is a school of thought is that Manchester United are worth laying in this return fixture due to the perceived danger in trusting a team who don't actually need to win, however the stats suggest that they will justify odds of 1.38.

Complacency and settling for a draw aren't exactly Red Devils staples, as is proven by them following their last six away first-leg triumphs in continental competitions with further success at home. Roma, AC Milan and Chelsea are among the clubs that they have achieved such doubles against.

A bizarre weekend in the Eredivisie also threatens to play into the hosts' hands, as pacesetters PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar both lost 3-0, suddenly ushering Ajax back into the title race.

With four of the five sides above Frank de Boer's men colliding on Sunday, they will be desperate to claim three points at Excelsior to take full advantage and, with their chances of progressing from this tie rated miniscule at 34.0, there will surely be a temptation to field a weakened team.

Ajax have lost two of their last three away second legs in Europe that have followed home reverses, including in last season's Europa League, when after being beaten 1-0 by Spartak Moscow in the Dutch capital, they surrendered 3-0 in Russia.

Over/under 2.5 goals

As referenced before the opening encounter, despite having no trouble finding the net in domestic action, Ajax can't be relied upon to score in Europe, and the same is true here, even more so in fact as the Dutch champions have fired blanks in three of their last four continental away games.

If you follow that theory, your verdict on this market will be based on whether or not you think Manchester United can get three goals. This writer isn't confident enough, as they have done so just once in seven European matches this term, and Ajax have only leaked that severely for Real Madrid.

Under 2.5 goals is therefore the pick again at even bigger odds than last week of 2.28.

Manchester United clean sheet

This was another recommendation that produced a profit in the first leg that appears worth staying loyal to, as Dinamo Zagreb remain the only of Ajax's four European opponents this season that they have scored against across a combined seven games.

Manchester United have shut out three of the last five visitors to Old Trafford, so with Ferguson eager to see an improvement on the home form that he deemed costly in the Champions League, 2.04 on them keeping a clean sheet appeals.

Other bets to consider include the win to nil at 2.28 and the 2-0 home win at 6.8.

Best Bet: Manchester United to keep a clean sheet @ 2.04
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28

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We've seen it time and time again, whether it's the WGC - Accenture Match Play which starts on Wednesday, the Volvo-sponsored version or in team competitions like the Ryder Cup. Matchplay golf is a refined art, quite distinct from strokeplay. Some players thrive under head to head conditions, others hate it.

Below is my Masters and Mugs, four matchplay experts and four who haven't exactly excelled in this format in recent years.


Matchplay Masters

Luke Donald
Tournament record: Won 16, Lost 6
Outright odds: 19.0

No prizes for originality here, but the defending champion's wider matchplay record confirms his status as the man to beat in Arizona. Donald was also runner-up in last year's Volvo World Match Play, and has won two out of three singles matches at the Ryder Cup. A first-round draw against Ernie Els may look daunting at first glance, but the Big Easy has never been seen to best effect in this event.


Ian Poulter
Tournament record: Won 18, Lost 8
Outright odds: 34.0

No player improves more when switching to matchplay than Poulter, who won the 2010 renewal and has a tournament record that belies his rankings over the same period. Poulter also won last year's Volvo renewal, and has a perfect three from three in Ryder Cup singles. Something about head to head golf repeatedly brings out the best in him.


Geoff Ogilvy
Tournament record: Won 20, Lost 4
Outright odds: 60.0

If anybody warrants the title of tournament specialist, it has to be twice champion and thrice finalist Ogilvy. Even the few dents in an awesome 84% strike-rate are nothing to be ashamed of, such as last year's defeat to a peak-form Bubba Watson, who produced an unbeatable standard in their match.


Hunter Mahan
Tournament record: Won 4, Lost 4
Outright odds: 60.0

Mahan's matchplay credentials are less clear-cut than the others, but there is enough in his record to suggest he loves the format. Most impressive was a semi-final appearance in the 2007 HSBC-sponsored version at Wentworth - despite a considerable disadvantage in terms of course experience. Hunter was also extremely impressive when winning four from five points at the last Presidents Cup, and fared better in Ryder Cups than the bare numbers suggest, having often been drawn against top opponents such as European talisman Graeme McDowell last time.


Matchplay Mugs

Lee Westwood
Tournament record: Won 6, Lost 17
Outright odds: 20.0

After repeatedly failing in this event, Phil Mickelson withdrew this year and I suspect Lee Westwood might have been tempted to follow suit. In 11 attempts, he's yet to go beyond the second round. His body language and attitude has often looked less than convincing, suggesting 18-hole matchplay on a US course just isn't his thing.


Sergio Garcia
Tournament record: Won 11, Lost 10
Outright odds: 22.0

Though Garcia is not without some happy matchplay memories, his record barely warrants this week's short odds. Despite thriving in Ryder Cup fourballs and foursomes, he's only won one out of five singles matches. Somewhere along the line this week, a bad putting day looks bound to put paid to his bid.


Dustin Johnson
Tournament record: Won 0, Lost 3
Outright odds: 36.0

Though one of the top US strokeplay stars, Dustin has yet to make any impact at matchplay, losing all three first round matches in Arizona. He was also extremely disappointing in the USA's recent Presidents Cup victory.


Tiger Woods
Tournament record: Won 32, Lost 8
Outright odds: 15.0

Don't blink. The three-time champion with an 80% strike-rate controversially makes the matchplay mugs' list. Comparisons with Tiger's glory years are meaningless. He was virtually unbeatable anywhere in those days, yet still managed to come a cropper against the likes of Jeff Maggert, Peter O'Malley and Nick O'Hern, which would have been unimaginable in strokeplay. Woods has always been more vulnerable in this format than strokeplay, and there are plenty of tough hurdles in his section of the draw. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano is no pushover on Wednesday, and if he progresses, Nick Watney looks a daunting second-round opponent.

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Napoli v Chelsea, live on Sky Sports 2

Napoli

Uefa has sent Walter Mazzarri to the stands for both legs of this tie, but first-choice 'keeper Morgan De Sanctis should have recovered from the knock that kept him out of Friday's 3-0 win at Fiorentina and the rest of the team picks itself.

Edinson Cavani will lead the line. The Uruguayan has scored in six of his last nine club appearances and will offer a bit of value To Score if his price reaches 3.0.

Chelsea

Andres Villas-Boas' team haven't won any of their last four matches anywhere and the players are starting to dissent. The coach is desperately considering John Terry for this match, despite a knee injury.

The Blues didn't win any of their three group-stage away games, ending up with two points from nine despite scoring first in each match. There's just one Opta stat to raise the hopes of the visitors: Didier Drogba has scored four goals in his last three Champions League appearances.

Match Odds

Mazzarri might disagree, but it seems right that Napoli start as favourites to win the first leg. His team are unbeaten in 11 home games since returning to European competition in 2008, while Chelsea have won only one of ten previous matches in Italy.

The draw, however, is a serious runner. Half of Napoli's last 14 Serie A games have finished all-square and so have six of Chelsea's most recent ten Premier League matches.

Over/Under Goals

Mazzarri likes his team to play on the counter-attack, and Cavani's accuracy in front of goal often makes this a winning strategy. The Azzurri had a competition-leading conversion rate, scoring with 22 per cent of their shots in the group stage, and Over 2.5 Goals might just be a little overpriced at 2.36.

Napoli will invite the visitors into their own half and Chelsea won't be shy about coming forward: Villas-Boas' team fired more shots on target (54) than anyone else in the group stage.

If you are worried about a 1-1 draw, think about Both Teams to Score at evens.

Half Time/Full Time

Opta reports that five of the six goals Napoli have conceded in the competition to date have come before half-time. And Chelsea scored first in each of their three group-stage away games, so you could take the visitors at 2.24 in the Next Goal market, but that's not a hugely enticing price.

All four of the Champions League goals scored against Chelsea have come in the second half and Villas-Boas' men are in the habit of conceding late goals in the Premier League too: 11/31 goals against have come in the final 15 minutes of matches. So there are a few patterns to suggest the away team could be ahead at half-time, but not at full-time.

The Chelsea/draw double-result is 19.0, but you might want to cover Chelsea/Napoli (36.0) as well. All for small stakes, of course.

Recommended Bet: Back Edinson Cavani To Score @ 3.0

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CSKA Moscow v Real Madrid, Tuesday 18:00, Live on Sky Sports 2

CSKA Moscow

Igor Akinfeev, the club captain and Russia's number one, has been out for months and will be missing again on Tuesday. Coach Leonid Slutsky is also without foreign stars Keisuke Honda and Mark Gonzalez for the team's first competitive game of the year. Perhaps they'll be better for the break - between August and the end of 2011, CSKA were W4-D1-L5 at home in the Premier League and Champions League - or perhaps not.

Seydou Doumbia has scored more than half of CSKA's Champions League goals this season (5/9) and 12 of their last 19 in all competitive games, but the home team's best hopes might be the sub-zero temperature and the Luzhniki Stadium's plastic pitch.

Real Madrid

Spain's league leaders are in the knockout stages of the Champions League for a fifteenth straight season. They used to have a problem getting past the last 16, but Jose Mourinho willed them past Lyon this time last year and his charges are 1.09 favourites to make the quarter-finals again this time.

Real's group-stage performance - maximum points and a +17 goal difference - is the best in competition history. Mourinho's recent record isn't bad either: ignore three defeats to the incomparable Barcelona and he's unbeaten in 28. A couple of years ago, he masterminded a 1-0 win for Inter at the Luzhniki.

Angel di Maria was injured on comeback against Racing Santander on Saturday night, but the rest of the first team is fit and they've done alright without him in the last couple of months.

Match Odds

Real used to have problems in Russia - they didn't win any of their first seven games there - but have subsequently notched a couple of wins, against Lokomotiv in 2003 and Zenit in 2008.

To justify a 1.46 win price this time, Real must do what no Spanish team has done before - beat CSKA in Moscow. That might have been a concern, if only CSKA hadn't already lost at home to Inter and Lille in the group stages.

With six wins out of six in their campaign so far, Real are favourites for very good reasons.

Real Madrid Win to Nil

Iker Casillas is yet to concede a goal in the Champions League this season. Understudy Adan let in a couple when the team was 6-0 up at home to Dinamo Zagreb, but Real have kept clean sheets in 13/18 Champions League games since Mourinho arrived.

They've not conceded in any of their six previous away wins under the Portuguese and, if you fancy them to win on Tuesday, the Win to Nil should appeal at 2.5.

Recommended Bet: Back Real Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.5

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Blackpool v West Ham, KO: Tuesday 20:00

Everyone knows that games in hand are only any use if you win them - and as games in hand go, a trip to Blackpool is not the easiest. Ian Holloway's team selection for the FA Cup tie at Everton (he left out a number of regular starters) suggests he had an eye on this fixture, which is almost as important for the home side as it is for the visitors.

The Hammers will go top with a win, but a success for the Tangerines would move them third in the table. It's a tough one to call, given Blackpool are unbeaten in seven league games while the Hammers have won four of their last six. I think the way to go is to look for goals. Eight of Blackpool's last nine league games have produced Over 2.5 Goals, and they have only failed to score once themselves in those nine matches. Equally telling is the fact that five of the seven games they have played against their fellow top-six sides have also paid out on the 'Overs' market.

The Hammers have the best away record in the division, and average virtually 1.5 goals a game on their travels. Pair that with Blackpool's home scoring record (1.67 goals a game), and I suggest you just back goals and don't worry about at which end.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.04


Barnsley v Birmingham, KO: Tuesday 19:45

As Chelsea found out on Saturday, Birmingham are a very hard team to beat. In fact, no-one has lowered their colours since before Christmas - a 13-game unbeaten run during which time they have risen from 15th to fifth in the table. They have built that run around an excellent defensive record, conceding just four goals in their last 10 outings. Perhaps most interesting for this particular game, though, is Blues' record against the division's weaker sides: they have played 15 games against teams below halfway, winning 10 of them and losing just one. And, for 13th-placed Barnsley, that does not bode well - especially when you look at the Tykes' record against teams in the top six: they have lost four of the six games they have played, including both at home.

Keith Hill's side have been largely inconsistent, losing seven of their last 11 league games. They beat Portsmouth on Saturday, but that was against a side that is bad on the road with the added problem of having just gone into administration. This is all together stronger, and more buoyant, opposition.

Back Birmingham @ 2.2


Hull v Brighton, KO: Tuesday 19:45

It doesn't matter who you are, and what the circumstances are - losing a competitive game 6-1 knocks your confidence. So Brighton's mauling at Liverpool in the FA Cup will leave a scar or two - and that's before you throw in all the media chat about them scoring three own goals in the process.

The Seagulls are unbeaten in seven league games, but they have to try and pick themselves up and only three days later travel to face one of their fellow Play-Off hopefuls. Some in football say that after such a pasting the best thing is to play another game quickly: but the close proximity of this one, the miles they have travelled recently and the fact that Hull are also in a spot of form has steered me towards a home win.

While Gus Poyet's side were getting their behinds tanned at Anfield, Hull had a weekend off. They go into the game having not lost - or even conceded a goal - in five league games. Their last outing was an impressive 0-0 draw at a Birmingham side that is flying (see above). They have won five of their last seven at the KC Stadium, and conceded just three goals during that run. With Brighton having failed to score in four of the five away games they have played against teams above them in the table, the Tigers' tight defence could be the key here.

Back Hull @ 1.9

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After their 4-0 humiliation by AC Milan on Wednesday, Arsène Wenger took the unprecedented step of openly criticising his players. The Frenchman, who in the past has usually resorted to smokescreens to detract from his own side's shortcomings, offered no such refuge to his charges at San Siro.

"It was one of those nights you never forget," said Wenger, whose side are now 26.0 to pull off a miracle in the return leg against the Italian champions. "It was our worst performance in Europe by far. We were punished and deservedly so. I felt we were never in the game. We were very poor offensively and defensively. It was shocking to see how we were beaten everywhere. There was not one moment in the 90 minutes when we were really in the game. The result is a disaster."

It was refreshing to hear such honesty from a man whose footballing philosophy has earned the respect of many, but whose disingenuous post-match appraisals in defeat have often subjected him to ridicule. It was also a veiled attempt to jolt his players into reacting in the right way in their next game against Sunderland. But it failed, and after a supine 2-0 FA Cup surrender on Wearside, Wenger reverted to type, defending his underwhelming players instead of criticising a dispirited display. Roy Keane described "the worst Arsenal team I have seen since I've been watching football."

Wenger said: "I think it was a committed performance, we gave everything we had left but three big games in one week were too much." He then laid claim to a "100% penalty" on Robin van Persie, which at best was a 50/50 call. After briefly poking his head above the parapet, the Gunners boss was back in the bunker again, attempting to cobble together some sort of siege mentality from his shell-shocked troops.

"We have to stand united and fight the critics," he added. "We have to focus on the next game, on finishing well in the league and fight for the small possibility of staying in the Champions League." The Arsenal manager's reaction is understandable, really, as, having tried and failed to adopt the stick approach, he has decided that any more such public beatings will risk completely destroying the remnants of his side's fragile mental fabric.

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the Gunners had just beaten Barcelona in the Champions League round of 16 first leg, lay second in the Premier League, were through to the League Cup final and going strong in the FA Cup. Twelve months on they are out of contention for silverware for a seventh season running, are 2.6 to hold on to fourth place http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=102873654&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013 and represent a pale imitation of their former selves.

The banners around Highbury used to read "Arsène Knows" but now Le Professeur is losing his way in a modern footballing landscape dictated by whichever owner has the most Russian gas reserves or largest Qatari oil fields. Wenger is trying to take on the Ferraris with his Renault Mégane and unsurprisingly is coming off second best.

Arsenal's campaign has also been constantly undermined by crippling injuries to key players and we can only speculate as to how the season might have gone had Thomas Vermaelen, Jack Wilshere, Bacary Sagna, André Santos, Abou Diaby and Kieran Gibbs not spent so long on the sidelines. Laurent Koscielny - one of the Gunners' few shining lights this season - limped off against AC Milan and was joined in the casualty ward on Saturday by Francis Coquelin, Aaron Ramsey and Sébastien Squillaci.

Wenger, however, must take responsibility for his failure to act in the transfer market. The panic buys of late August represented a knee-jerk reaction to their 8-2 humiliation by Manchester United and the players recruited are downgrades on the departed Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. Not paying City rates is one thing, replacing Fabregas and Nasri with the likes of Yossi Benayoun and Park chu-Young is quite another. Le Professeur needed to buy a solid centre-back, a commanding central midfielder and a quality striker and had all summer to do so. Instead, in came the lumbering Per Mertesacker, the steady but not exceptional Mikel Arteta, and the peripheral Benayoun and Park chu-Young at the 11th hour.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is another promising young signing, but Arsenal's failure to buy established players of quality has stunted their progress. The likes of Oxlade-Chamberlain need to be shown the ropes by experienced commanders. Arsenal have none. And to make matters worse there is a noisy neighbour in town.

Admittedly, Tottenham have also thrown millions at their project and Arsenal are operating in a different economic reality to their north London rivals, whose next concern is how the hell to hold on to Robin van Persie, but the fact that one of Spurs' star performers this season is a midfielder Arsenal could have snapped up for £5.5m is symptomatic of the Gunners' shortcomings in the transfer market.

Where once they blazed a trail, now they just trail. Now, it seems, all Arsène knows is that he must stubbornly back an average side that only lie fourth due to the pig's ear Andre Villas-Boas has made out of Chelsea's campaign. For this beleaguered Arsenal side, the north London derby next weekend could not possibly come at a worse time.

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Chelsea v Birmingham, KO: Saturday 12:30, live on ESPN

Andre Villas-Boas has said, and done, some strange things in his short stint as Chelsea boss but his latest admission that he doesn't need the backing of his squad surely is a bit naïve.

During a bizarre news conference on Thursday afternoon AVB declared, "They (the players) don't have to back my project, only the owner needs to back my project." Well if he truly believes that then he may as well pack his bags now.

For as long as I can remember I don't think there has ever been a successful club whose manager pulled in one direction and the players in another. And whilst none of the Chelsea players have come out and said they don't back their boss, AVB's odd, and probably without much thought words will have done nothing to enhance relations between himself and his playing staff.

It's a long shot, but if Chelsea lose to Birmingham on Saturday and then suffer a damaging result in the Champions League in midweek then I think the only support Villas-Boas will have will be that of a bar somewhere back in Portugal!

Chelsea could welcome back Ramires for the visit of FA Cup Fifth Round opponents Birmingham, a welcome boost given his teammates have failed to win a single game in his absence. John Terry is close to full fitness but is expected to be left out in favour of the Napoli game three days later, whilst Ashley Cole (injury), Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou (both just returned from international duty) are all expected to miss out.

Birmingham have been excellent of late, but a fixture pile-up, added to the recent sale of more players and a growing injury list means they face a stiff task at Stamford Bridge. What isn't in question though, is the knowledge that the Blues players are fully behind their talented boss Chris Hughton. And that can sometimes count for a lot. Take note Andre.


Match Odds

Chelsea's last four league games - draws to Norwich and Swansea, surrendering a three goal lead against Manchester United, and then losing to Everton - hardly inspires me to recommend backing them at 1.34 in this market. In between those results they scrambled a narrow 1-0 home win against out-of-form QPR in this competition and I have a feeling this will be an equally low-scoring affair.

Birmingham have been in great form in 2012, particularly away from home where they've been scoring for fun. They are unbeaten in 12 games in all competitions and have scored 15 goals in their last four away games. However, Opta state that Chelsea have won eight and lost none of their last 10 meetings with Brum at Stamford Bridge. What's more, Chelsea have won 18 and lost none in regulation play of their last 21 FA Cup ties on home soil.

The stats are against Birmingham, but current form, Villas-Boas' comments, and the underdog factor all give the away side a squeak. You won't lose much if you lay Chelsea at 1.35 and are proved wrong.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I mentioned Birmingham's recent goalscoring record on the road which shows their current wellbeing, but this FA Cup game is a completely different challenge and I can't see them threatening the Chelsea goal too often. The home side should get on the scoresheet but I can't see them getting an avalanche of goals, so all in all I believe the play has to be to back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.44. That price just looks too big.

To Score & First Goalscorer

With Drogba a likely absentee, and AVB saying he has to decide whether to start with Fernando Torres or Romelu Lukaku, the signs are that Daniel Sturridge is already assured his place in Saturday's starting XI. And why wouldn't he be? Opta tell us that the youngster has scored seven goals in eight FA Cup appearances including six in five starts for Chelsea. He will be available to back at around 2.2 To Score at anytime and at 5.5 in the First Goalscorer market once they fully materialise. He's the obvious selection.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Daniel Sturridge To Score @ 2.2
Back Daniel Sturridge First Goalscorer @ 5.5
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.44

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Peterborough v Bristol City

Is it too early to start throwing in the phrase 'six pointer'? Probably not. Especially when you consider that there is only a third of the season to go and both these sides are lingering uncomfortably close to the drop zone.

Bristol City were bottom, rose to 19th, but a run of one win in six has put the skids under them again. They have failed to keep a clean in any of those six, and that will surely be a worry visiting London Road, where goals fly in at an alarming rate. Posh average two a game at home - a rate only bettered by four teams in the division - yet they let them in nearly as fast and have the worst home defensive record in the Championship.

You could look at this fixture and say 'cagey', but I don't think Peterborough know how to do 'cagey'. Ten of their home games have delivered 2.5 goals or more, while nine of City's away games have done the same. Bearing in mind City are struggling to keep the ball out of the net, and both sides badly need something from this game, I think the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0


Barnsley v Portsmouth

In the list of people who are not too to sad to see Scottish giants Rangers going into administration, Portsmouth fans are probably second only to Celtic fans. It's not that Pompey have any malice towards the Ibrox club - but it must be nice not to be the main story when it comes to parlous club finances. The south coast club are once again at death's door, and though they showed plenty of spirit in drawing at Blackpool last week, the midweek home defeat to Ipswich suggested their resolve is now fully stretched. As it is, they are bad enough on the road: just two wins in 16 outings.

Barnsley have lost their last two but they were both away from home: they beat Leicester in their last game at Oakwell. The Tykes have only failed to score once at home this term (against Southampton) and if they can maintain that sequence it will probably be good enough to take the points.

Back Barnsley @ 2.46


Nottingham Forest v Coventry

If Forest don't win this one, it'll simply not be justified to cite 'they are too big to go down' as a defence against the possibility of the former European Champions dropping into the third tier of English football. With just one win - but 10 defeats - in their last 13 league games, Forest are serious relegation contenders. Their problems in scoring goals are well documented - but there have been some glimmers of hope lately. They finally found the net at home last weekend and missed a string of chances to win in the 1-1 draw with Watford, before giving 10-man Middlesbrough a scare in midweek. However, they are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry - if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety.

The Sky Blues' away results must offer the hosts plenty of hope: they have lost their last eight on the trot on their travels, and overall have drawn just three and lost the other 12. Significantly they have not managed a clean sheet in any away game, and even a team that has struggled to find the net like Forest must do so in this one. Given that Coventry have failed to score in more than half their away games, one goal might be enough.

Back Nottm Forest @ 1.92

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Manchester City are in the process of learning that any slight slip up can prove catastrophic when fighting for major honours, but their Europa League opponents Porto have demonstrated this season that the punishments are even more severe in Portugal.

Ex-assistant Vitor Pereira has fared fairly admirably in the unenviable gig of succeeding treble-winner Andre Villas-Boas, yet one defeat and just 11 dropped points has been enough to leave them trailing Benfica by five back home, and two Champions League losses spelled the end of that adventure.

As a result, they risk finishing a campaign in which they have been solid at the back, pretty effective going forwards and have racked up the victories with nothing other than the Portuguese Super Cup, no real consolation, to show for it.

It is therefore likely that their desire to retain the Europa League trophy that they won so supremely last year outweighs that of a Manchester City side whose priority will quite rightly be sustaining their advantage at the top of the Premier League.

That is perhaps why, even though they are 5.6 tournament favourites, Roberto Mancini's men are 2.9 outsiders in their opening fixture, whereas less fancied neighbours Manchester United are 1.83 to triumph at Ajax.

The other is that Porto are dominant at home, Opta noting that they haven't been beaten in front of their fans since last February, and that blow came in a Europa League tie that they already led on aggregate against Sevilla. They have won 12 in 15 as hosts this term, including each of the last six.

Throw in Manchester City's questionable recent travelling form - three wins in 10 - and the fact that they have prevailed in only one of their last seven European away games, losing four, and there is a strong case for backing Porto at 2.72.

For no obvious reason, despite being a domestic cup specialist - lifting five across four clubs - Mancini's record in continental competitions doesn't come close to comparing, and a reverse in Portugal may see the spotlight shone on it for the first since his arrival in England.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Citzens fans chants of "we'll score when we want" haven't proven a self-fulfilling prophesy lately, with their last five Premier League matches on the road featuring a combined four goals, with no more than one in any single one of them.

Add into the mix that Porto had tightened up towards the end of their brief Champions League adventure, their final two encounters producing only two goals and both of those in their favour, and you have a recipe for under 2.5 goals at 1.94.

Porto clean sheet

Manchester City can afford to suffer a first-leg defeat so long as they grab an away goal but the omens for doing so aren't particularly promising against a Porto team who are very difficult to break down, particularly at the Estadio do Dragao.

The Europa League holders have conceded just once in their last seven home games and have kept eight clean sheets in ten as hosts. They are a hefty 3.7 to achieve another, with even chunkier odds of 5.1 offered on them winning to nil.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94
Other Recommended Bet: Porto to win @ 2.72

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How badly do Manchester United want Europa League success? That's the question that punters tempted to lay them at odds-on at the Amsterdam Arena will be posing, but the same can be asked of Ajax.

They too are Champions League dropouts who surrendered a position of strength on matchday six, and have even more work to do domestically over the next few months, slumped in sixth in the Eredivisie and far from certain of qualifying for this competition again let alone the big one.

Frank de Boer's side won away to NAC Breda last weekend, but the fact that it was their first victory in five outings demonstrates just how shorn of confidence and momentum they have been recently, a problem exacerbated by internal unrest.

Judging by his squad selection, Sir Alex Ferguson will field a strong team for the sort of glamour tie that the Red Devils probably didn't anticipate when they were condemned to Thursday night football, a situation labelled embarrassing by Patrice Evra.

With their early FA Cup exit providing them with a rare weekend off, resting stars isn't a necessity, and it makes sense to chase the win in the Dutch capital with a view to conserving energy next week, when they play three days before a Premier League trip to Norwich.

While Evra, Ryan Giggs and Dimitar Berbatov stayed at home, the likes of Nani and Wayne Rooney have travelled. Even if the latter is spared, his likely replacement is Javier Hernandez, who is fresh having not featured against Liverpool and still rates among the best forwards in the competition.

Opta offer plenty of encouragement to those who fancy Manchester United to deliver at 1.83 and add to Ajax's gloom, revealing that the Dutch champions have lost three of their last four fixtures as hosts, winning only one of their last ten clashes with English opposition (excluding qualifiers).

Over/under 2.5 goals

Ajax's main fault in the Champions League wasn't stopping their rivals from scoring but finding the net themselves, as illustrated by Real Madrid being the sole club to beat their defence and a record of four blanks fired in four meetings with the La Liga leaders and Lyon.

Those trends point to this first leg containing under 2.5 goals, which is a tempting 2.1 prospect. Also worth noting is the fact that Ajax's last dozen European encounters have all seen just one or neither of the sides involved score, so opposing both teams to score seems a shrewd move at 2.22.

Manchester United clean sheet

Those statistics about Ajax's struggles in front of goal in Europe lend themselves to a bet on them failing to fire against Manchester United, and the visitors' defensive record on the road across the continent enhances the case further.

Ferguson's men have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine European away games, so having managed five in eight in the Premier League lately too, 2.78 looks a rather generous price on them achieving another shut out.

Combining the calls of Manchester United triumph, clean sheet and under 2.5 goals, you are left with 0-1 [8.8] and 0-2 [11.0] as correct score candidates. Of the pair, I'd favour the former, which has been their preferred poison in the Champions League in recent seasons.

Hernandez loves getting the only goal in a 1-0 away win - see Valencia, Everton and Swansea for proof - so if the Mexican starts, consider backing him to break the deadlock at 6.2 or bigger.

Best Bet: Manchester United to win @ 1.83
Other Recommended Bet: Manchester United to win 1-0 @ 8.8

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