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How badly do Manchester United want Europa League success? That's the question that punters tempted to lay them at odds-on at the Amsterdam Arena will be posing, but the same can be asked of Ajax.

They too are Champions League dropouts who surrendered a position of strength on matchday six, and have even more work to do domestically over the next few months, slumped in sixth in the Eredivisie and far from certain of qualifying for this competition again let alone the big one.

Frank de Boer's side won away to NAC Breda last weekend, but the fact that it was their first victory in five outings demonstrates just how shorn of confidence and momentum they have been recently, a problem exacerbated by internal unrest.

Judging by his squad selection, Sir Alex Ferguson will field a strong team for the sort of glamour tie that the Red Devils probably didn't anticipate when they were condemned to Thursday night football, a situation labelled embarrassing by Patrice Evra.

With their early FA Cup exit providing them with a rare weekend off, resting stars isn't a necessity, and it makes sense to chase the win in the Dutch capital with a view to conserving energy next week, when they play three days before a Premier League trip to Norwich.

While Evra, Ryan Giggs and Dimitar Berbatov stayed at home, the likes of Nani and Wayne Rooney have travelled. Even if the latter is spared, his likely replacement is Javier Hernandez, who is fresh having not featured against Liverpool and still rates among the best forwards in the competition.

Opta offer plenty of encouragement to those who fancy Manchester United to deliver at 1.83 and add to Ajax's gloom, revealing that the Dutch champions have lost three of their last four fixtures as hosts, winning only one of their last ten clashes with English opposition (excluding qualifiers).

Over/under 2.5 goals

Ajax's main fault in the Champions League wasn't stopping their rivals from scoring but finding the net themselves, as illustrated by Real Madrid being the sole club to beat their defence and a record of four blanks fired in four meetings with the La Liga leaders and Lyon.

Those trends point to this first leg containing under 2.5 goals, which is a tempting 2.1 prospect. Also worth noting is the fact that Ajax's last dozen European encounters have all seen just one or neither of the sides involved score, so opposing both teams to score seems a shrewd move at 2.22.

Manchester United clean sheet

Those statistics about Ajax's struggles in front of goal in Europe lend themselves to a bet on them failing to fire against Manchester United, and the visitors' defensive record on the road across the continent enhances the case further.

Ferguson's men have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine European away games, so having managed five in eight in the Premier League lately too, 2.78 looks a rather generous price on them achieving another shut out.

Combining the calls of Manchester United triumph, clean sheet and under 2.5 goals, you are left with 0-1 [8.8] and 0-2 [11.0] as correct score candidates. Of the pair, I'd favour the former, which has been their preferred poison in the Champions League in recent seasons.

Hernandez loves getting the only goal in a 1-0 away win - see Valencia, Everton and Swansea for proof - so if the Mexican starts, consider backing him to break the deadlock at 6.2 or bigger.

Best Bet: Manchester United to win @ 1.83
Other Recommended Bet: Manchester United to win 1-0 @ 8.8

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