Betting.Betfair

Chelsea v Birmingham, KO: Saturday 12:30, live on ESPN

Andre Villas-Boas has said, and done, some strange things in his short stint as Chelsea boss but his latest admission that he doesn't need the backing of his squad surely is a bit naïve.

During a bizarre news conference on Thursday afternoon AVB declared, "They (the players) don't have to back my project, only the owner needs to back my project." Well if he truly believes that then he may as well pack his bags now.

For as long as I can remember I don't think there has ever been a successful club whose manager pulled in one direction and the players in another. And whilst none of the Chelsea players have come out and said they don't back their boss, AVB's odd, and probably without much thought words will have done nothing to enhance relations between himself and his playing staff.

It's a long shot, but if Chelsea lose to Birmingham on Saturday and then suffer a damaging result in the Champions League in midweek then I think the only support Villas-Boas will have will be that of a bar somewhere back in Portugal!

Chelsea could welcome back Ramires for the visit of FA Cup Fifth Round opponents Birmingham, a welcome boost given his teammates have failed to win a single game in his absence. John Terry is close to full fitness but is expected to be left out in favour of the Napoli game three days later, whilst Ashley Cole (injury), Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou (both just returned from international duty) are all expected to miss out.

Birmingham have been excellent of late, but a fixture pile-up, added to the recent sale of more players and a growing injury list means they face a stiff task at Stamford Bridge. What isn't in question though, is the knowledge that the Blues players are fully behind their talented boss Chris Hughton. And that can sometimes count for a lot. Take note Andre.


Match Odds

Chelsea's last four league games - draws to Norwich and Swansea, surrendering a three goal lead against Manchester United, and then losing to Everton - hardly inspires me to recommend backing them at 1.34 in this market. In between those results they scrambled a narrow 1-0 home win against out-of-form QPR in this competition and I have a feeling this will be an equally low-scoring affair.

Birmingham have been in great form in 2012, particularly away from home where they've been scoring for fun. They are unbeaten in 12 games in all competitions and have scored 15 goals in their last four away games. However, Opta state that Chelsea have won eight and lost none of their last 10 meetings with Brum at Stamford Bridge. What's more, Chelsea have won 18 and lost none in regulation play of their last 21 FA Cup ties on home soil.

The stats are against Birmingham, but current form, Villas-Boas' comments, and the underdog factor all give the away side a squeak. You won't lose much if you lay Chelsea at 1.35 and are proved wrong.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I mentioned Birmingham's recent goalscoring record on the road which shows their current wellbeing, but this FA Cup game is a completely different challenge and I can't see them threatening the Chelsea goal too often. The home side should get on the scoresheet but I can't see them getting an avalanche of goals, so all in all I believe the play has to be to back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.44. That price just looks too big.

To Score & First Goalscorer

With Drogba a likely absentee, and AVB saying he has to decide whether to start with Fernando Torres or Romelu Lukaku, the signs are that Daniel Sturridge is already assured his place in Saturday's starting XI. And why wouldn't he be? Opta tell us that the youngster has scored seven goals in eight FA Cup appearances including six in five starts for Chelsea. He will be available to back at around 2.2 To Score at anytime and at 5.5 in the First Goalscorer market once they fully materialise. He's the obvious selection.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Daniel Sturridge To Score @ 2.2
Back Daniel Sturridge First Goalscorer @ 5.5
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.44

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/