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Napoli v Chelsea, live on Sky Sports 2

Napoli

Uefa has sent Walter Mazzarri to the stands for both legs of this tie, but first-choice 'keeper Morgan De Sanctis should have recovered from the knock that kept him out of Friday's 3-0 win at Fiorentina and the rest of the team picks itself.

Edinson Cavani will lead the line. The Uruguayan has scored in six of his last nine club appearances and will offer a bit of value To Score if his price reaches 3.0.

Chelsea

Andres Villas-Boas' team haven't won any of their last four matches anywhere and the players are starting to dissent. The coach is desperately considering John Terry for this match, despite a knee injury.

The Blues didn't win any of their three group-stage away games, ending up with two points from nine despite scoring first in each match. There's just one Opta stat to raise the hopes of the visitors: Didier Drogba has scored four goals in his last three Champions League appearances.

Match Odds

Mazzarri might disagree, but it seems right that Napoli start as favourites to win the first leg. His team are unbeaten in 11 home games since returning to European competition in 2008, while Chelsea have won only one of ten previous matches in Italy.

The draw, however, is a serious runner. Half of Napoli's last 14 Serie A games have finished all-square and so have six of Chelsea's most recent ten Premier League matches.

Over/Under Goals

Mazzarri likes his team to play on the counter-attack, and Cavani's accuracy in front of goal often makes this a winning strategy. The Azzurri had a competition-leading conversion rate, scoring with 22 per cent of their shots in the group stage, and Over 2.5 Goals might just be a little overpriced at 2.36.

Napoli will invite the visitors into their own half and Chelsea won't be shy about coming forward: Villas-Boas' team fired more shots on target (54) than anyone else in the group stage.

If you are worried about a 1-1 draw, think about Both Teams to Score at evens.

Half Time/Full Time

Opta reports that five of the six goals Napoli have conceded in the competition to date have come before half-time. And Chelsea scored first in each of their three group-stage away games, so you could take the visitors at 2.24 in the Next Goal market, but that's not a hugely enticing price.

All four of the Champions League goals scored against Chelsea have come in the second half and Villas-Boas' men are in the habit of conceding late goals in the Premier League too: 11/31 goals against have come in the final 15 minutes of matches. So there are a few patterns to suggest the away team could be ahead at half-time, but not at full-time.

The Chelsea/draw double-result is 19.0, but you might want to cover Chelsea/Napoli (36.0) as well. All for small stakes, of course.

Recommended Bet: Back Edinson Cavani To Score @ 3.0

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