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Manchester City are in the process of learning that any slight slip up can prove catastrophic when fighting for major honours, but their Europa League opponents Porto have demonstrated this season that the punishments are even more severe in Portugal.

Ex-assistant Vitor Pereira has fared fairly admirably in the unenviable gig of succeeding treble-winner Andre Villas-Boas, yet one defeat and just 11 dropped points has been enough to leave them trailing Benfica by five back home, and two Champions League losses spelled the end of that adventure.

As a result, they risk finishing a campaign in which they have been solid at the back, pretty effective going forwards and have racked up the victories with nothing other than the Portuguese Super Cup, no real consolation, to show for it.

It is therefore likely that their desire to retain the Europa League trophy that they won so supremely last year outweighs that of a Manchester City side whose priority will quite rightly be sustaining their advantage at the top of the Premier League.

That is perhaps why, even though they are 5.6 tournament favourites, Roberto Mancini's men are 2.9 outsiders in their opening fixture, whereas less fancied neighbours Manchester United are 1.83 to triumph at Ajax.

The other is that Porto are dominant at home, Opta noting that they haven't been beaten in front of their fans since last February, and that blow came in a Europa League tie that they already led on aggregate against Sevilla. They have won 12 in 15 as hosts this term, including each of the last six.

Throw in Manchester City's questionable recent travelling form - three wins in 10 - and the fact that they have prevailed in only one of their last seven European away games, losing four, and there is a strong case for backing Porto at 2.72.

For no obvious reason, despite being a domestic cup specialist - lifting five across four clubs - Mancini's record in continental competitions doesn't come close to comparing, and a reverse in Portugal may see the spotlight shone on it for the first since his arrival in England.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Citzens fans chants of "we'll score when we want" haven't proven a self-fulfilling prophesy lately, with their last five Premier League matches on the road featuring a combined four goals, with no more than one in any single one of them.

Add into the mix that Porto had tightened up towards the end of their brief Champions League adventure, their final two encounters producing only two goals and both of those in their favour, and you have a recipe for under 2.5 goals at 1.94.

Porto clean sheet

Manchester City can afford to suffer a first-leg defeat so long as they grab an away goal but the omens for doing so aren't particularly promising against a Porto team who are very difficult to break down, particularly at the Estadio do Dragao.

The Europa League holders have conceded just once in their last seven home games and have kept eight clean sheets in ten as hosts. They are a hefty 3.7 to achieve another, with even chunkier odds of 5.1 offered on them winning to nil.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94
Other Recommended Bet: Porto to win @ 2.72

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