Australian
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Its over guys, the good times for Aust are finished. A few weeks back Iron ore prices dropped for the first time in 3 years. Now a chinese official has come out and stated on behalf of the govt that a world wide recession is upon us.
Add into this the USA which is basically bankrupt, and europe which is mostly bankrupt and the future looks bleak.
Here in aust we have an economy totally dependant on the mining boom which will soon end. We have govt who have so seriously over taxed and charged our economy that when revenue falls panic will set in.Labor will do what they always do and raise more taxes.That will be the final straw and the economy will collapse.
Anyone in retail already knows the consumer has closed his purse.Within months you will see shops close and annecdotally its being said that 30% of shops will close by june next year.Who knows if that particular number is correct but you get the point.
Get your travel in.The aussie dollars will be below 90 cents soon and may go to 60 cents ultimatly.
This recession will be savage because the much of the world will have an even worse time of it than us. Politicians- far from providing solutions will just make the pain worse.
if your holding stocks sell asap and buy back in down the track at heavily reduced prices.
baten down your particular hatch
Add into this the USA which is basically bankrupt, and europe which is mostly bankrupt and the future looks bleak.
Here in aust we have an economy totally dependant on the mining boom which will soon end. We have govt who have so seriously over taxed and charged our economy that when revenue falls panic will set in.Labor will do what they always do and raise more taxes.That will be the final straw and the economy will collapse.
Anyone in retail already knows the consumer has closed his purse.Within months you will see shops close and annecdotally its being said that 30% of shops will close by june next year.Who knows if that particular number is correct but you get the point.
Get your travel in.The aussie dollars will be below 90 cents soon and may go to 60 cents ultimatly.
This recession will be savage because the much of the world will have an even worse time of it than us. Politicians- far from providing solutions will just make the pain worse.
if your holding stocks sell asap and buy back in down the track at heavily reduced prices.
baten down your particular hatch
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Hope your economic theory is stronger than your spelling, bar your advice to sell everything - that will help prevent a recession... Huge sell off of equities
And your iron ore info is bust, china has been backwards integrating as fast as possible lately - so obviously prices will change in an industry dominated by 3 firms |
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cant even afford to use the correct amount of letters to spell reseshon
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Don't forget we have the best government in the world Benjamin, they will guide us through any trouble like like ships in the night.
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only if you're silly enough not to cash in on the mining BOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
the futures so bright I have to get around in welding goggles  |
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Uncle and BT
Does this mean we will become a third world country???  |
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Men carrying purses now? F*ck me, things really are going downhill.
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scoff if yu want. dow off 300 overnight. more to come. we are fked. retire at 85yo coming.
dont say yu were not warned. |
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Another 15-20 years of mining boom to go IMO. It may ebb and flow a little along that journey, however it will ensure we never dip into a recession. We will never return to the dark days of the past with near double digit unemployment, double figure interest rates, Aussie $ worth around 50-60 c US..........wont happen IMO
Buy BHP today, tommorrow and the next day......then repeat these steps |
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The mining boom was over a while ago, it is now just mining
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I gave up the stock market 12 months ago after making it my full time gig for years. We have gone nowhere in the last year so I missed nothing. Im doing better laying horses and its more fun too. If anybody wants the most simplest fool proof system for making a profit laying aussie horses send me a message.
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plenty of boom left in the boom yet - China apparently manipulated iron ore prices by stopping buying for a bit and using their stockpiles. Those stockpiles will soon need to be replaced. Add the way Asia as a whole is going - even Japan has started to grow again and we're definitely located in the right part of the world
relax, we'll be fine imo  |
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I don't think anyone really knows but the signs are not good. I've always cast an eye on HS Dent's view over the last few decades and he makes a lot of sense imo.I guess china can quickly cash up all it's USD bonds and ever land a plunge on betfair or buy more commodities.
Can you rent a house out and pay the mortgage in oz ? Mrben may well be right and cash will be king, just which currency may be the question. Really don't understand USD strength in times of equity weakness but i guess you just have to follow the herd for the time being. |
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as soon as china decide to put up their hourly wage rate from 10c to 15c ... we're all fk'd
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past recessions are results of over spending, the economy burning out.
interest rates rise to encourage more saving. the last 2 years theres been a slow down in consumer spending, but these figures are false as they dont take into account internet buying, taxes the fed government are missing out on. Our banks are the strongest performing in the world. labour may have dwindled billions on schemes and stimulas packages. but the GST is a huge money spinner as howard found out and gave out many cash gifts to the public also. China is important to australia, more so than the USA and the Europes problems shouldnt really effect our standards though the markets suggest otherwise. in a nutshell, the public are weary of over spending, housing prices are up and down, but gaining in some areas. theres been no massive job losses like other recessions. if the housing industry collapses thats when our banks get into trouble and shut up shop. businnesses cant borrow and expand, then workers lose their jobs causing a recession. i think we still are in good shape considering the worlds rooted and we just had interest decreased. just my opinion. |
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agree with most of your post megsy.
my view is that we are at the very beginning of our recession.Just because the media has not announced it doesn t mean its not here. Aust is a 2 speed economy and the mining industry is about to come back to the field. Its not going to collapse but it is going to slow substantially. Govts have all their eggs in 2 baskets- mining and property. Once mining income slows there will be a cascade effect to property, other sectors such as retail are already going backwards.Govt here is addicted to populist spending, the same situation as in europe. We have a socialist govt, just as greece,italy and spain. We are on the same path but we have been saved up to this point by china and the mining boom. More than 10,000 factories have closed in china because its , wait for it- too expensive to manufacture there, according to factory owners. Apparently they are moving to vietneam, india nd thailand.thailand is now under water however.The elephant in the room from aust perspective is china.Basically they just announced to the world that they are entering a recession. You just need to read between the lines. Mining will continue, but the boom is over. Iron ore prices will fall and continue to fall.back to "normal levels, wherever that is. The aust economy is slowing considerably as evidenced by the interest rate cut. Far from being "good" news it indicates the economy needs stimulus. Sell your rio, bhp and fortesue. Have you seen the price of one steel today and bluescope? |
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Bluescope has been the short of the year. Theyre rooted. So is the real estate market in China. We havent even begun to feel the effects of a Chinese slow down. It will be brutal in my opinion.
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give it up mrben this is farcical
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your on the money malaz.
 uncle- under what basis is it farcical? Do us the pleasure of your superior knowledge.Im interested to hear.  |
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FKNG RESSIONS, killing everyone.
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Hey Lads , back from a freshen up ...( and a fkn good one too !!)
Oz housing market : House of cards IMO Agree MrBen : The science is in |
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China will keep growing - if it doesn't we're all screwed
one thing though, they keep saying how retail spending is growing slower then normal - the only way retail can grow as fast as it was is to find more customers and/or get the current customer base to spend more so we either need more people or higher wages and plenty don't want either of those two things so where does the growth come from??? WB AP |
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the sky is falling thread IMO
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womble, sorry but you wrong there.
chinese pmi figures just released- showing a "shock" contraction.  for those of us who follow such things closley, I'm telling you the hardest of landings is coming. the mining tax will ultimatly raise SFA because the industry will have contracted substantially by the time it actually gets in. for those recommending buying BHP- its down another 50 cents today and RIO has dropped about 5$ this week. such buy recommendations are reckless. no logroller the sky is not yet falling in, but its cracking. Hopefully when it falls some of it will crash onto you. IMAHO! of course  |
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Agree 100%s MrB ig..
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u r a little man ben, and the chicken little of this forum, and to wish me ill wind is typical
of u "Hopefully when it falls some of it will crash onto you" |
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All this gloom and doom should be music to our collective ears.The punt is the most recession proof industry that i know of,infact it will probably kick strongly,flushing out a fresh set of desperates if the economy tanks.Add this to easing prices in the rest of the economy.......mmmm i'm feeling a little moister as i type.
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logroller, Mrben is intitled to his opinion, its what forums are all about...ffs
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used to be that way romper ... when the horses were the only form of gambling around
... these days the 'troubled punter' is more likely to go for lotto keno or the real desperate for pokies ... hard to see liquidity increasing on bf for example (but hope you're right) |
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pretty sensitive when the boot is on the other foot logroller? You really dont like it when they push back do you?
fyi- check this link. the sky IS apparently falling in http://www.cnbc.com/id/45398839 megsy- correct. and I am entitled to mine.dont conveniently forget that......fffs |
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WHO CARES
WE ARE ALL DOOMED WE ARE ALL CORRUPT SOULS 20 12 2012 IS NEAR,JUDGEMENT DAY IS COMING |
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5.2% unemployment, record low interest rates. Carbon Tax passed, Mining Tax next on the agenda. Don't worry about the $ its designed to flow with the punches. Too early for a recession yet. Labor Party policies have done a fantastic job to go against world trends.
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why are the markets holding up so well if the financial world is ending?
been a subcsriber to your theory mrben but starting to doubt it all the bad news / gloom is out there - we all expect everything to fail yet the markets are down 2% one day but then up 2% the next? i just dont get it |
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CS: It's the grinders coming in and out daily
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those grinders are making a fortune. 2% and plus volatility on a daily basis is making some traders a mint. They've got all mine over the last 5 years. ****s.
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zero chance of a recession IMO...
all doomsdayers, take a trip to any port in the pilbara and see what is going on, in particular, what and how much is being shipped out. |
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it really is an exciting time for Australia to be honest, we are so far removed from what is happening in Euorpe and have such an unique resource, we are truly the lucky country............old timers, get with it, the dark old days will never return in our lifetimes
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Good call MrBen, Actually best tip on the site . S&P off 40 points since you posted. AUD has been canned. It's not all bad, easier to make $$ in a falling market. Surprised there hasn't been a pull back.
Don't be too hard on MrBen. There is no shortage of "The great depression ahead" books available. Pick holes in their arguments. I guess change is impossible and the politicians will save us all. |
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thanks for that harry.
 craig- your of course right- up till now.That up today down tomorrow up the next day is over.Thats my main point.I'm ringing the bell here.This is the tipping point. Its into the abyss from here. Extrapolating the past say 2/3 years into the next 2/3 is pure folly. I see the AUD headed back into the 60's by the time it all plays through. Unemployment here will go well over 10% although "official figures " may not show it.Property will become unsaleable. Shops close holus bolus. We in Aust are headed down the same path as the failed euro countries,mining has saved us till now but with china contracting it wont be enough. LTU- so right, I personally having been playing the volatlity hard for a while now and have cleaned up.Esp on the AUD. Now play for the downside and you can still clean up.Its a one way ticket atm  |
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We don't need saving Harry, we just need to change our expectations a little - many here spot on, we're doing well and isolated to a large degree
so my call - Relax and if you're in Melbourne come and have a drink on the 6th |