Australian
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 662 comments are related to the topic:
The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 662
|
By:
david jones sales just released-DOWN 11%
recession commences |
|
By:
I am not sure a high end retailer living in an age of online buying having a down year indicates a ression.
|
|
By:
Time to give Megan Gale the boot, get someone new in.
|
|
By:
BHLL- now that celeb apprentice is iver i believe pauline hanson is looking for a gig
 |
|
By:
The big four (banks) came out with record profits recently
that alone should be the contrarian indicator in aus for a on-coming recession |
|
By:
I'm not familiar with this celeb apprentice program but it's good hear Pauline is learning a trade, a career change at her age can be difficult.
I was thinking more of someone like Kate Upton. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOhibvMUm04&feature=related |
|
By:
david jones sales just released-DOWN 11%
recession commences internet online sales up 500% david jones and other money grabbers like myers have to head in the direction of the others, drop prices to be competitive. |
|
By:
report in the age not long ago.
Australians are proud of their economy and so they should be — it is one of the strongest in the advanced world. (It stands alone with Canada.) We have very low levels of public debt (less than a tenth of the level across the major advanced economies) low unemployment (around half the level of the US), and a massive pipeline of investments, particularly in resources. So as people around the world watch the latest economic upheavals in the US and Europe with some trepidation, in Australia we approach this period of uncertainty in a much stronger position than other nations in the world. When the global financial crisis hit less than three years ago, we heeded the warnings from the international community that it would be extremely hard for any economy to recover from a recession that was induced by this event, and we acted to avert a recession at home. The actions that we took during the GFC, along with the hard work of the Australian people, have earned us a strong outlook, strong job growth and a strong fiscal position. It's meant that despite the fact that we've been hit hard by natural disasters, we today sit in one of the most enviable economic positions in the developed world. |
|
By:
megsy bit hard to drop prices when westfield charges $1000 per sq metre.
However what does show that retail is totally effed, is that in my area here around Burleigh is that when a retail shop closes a food/cafe type shop opens in its place. Why?? well everyone needs to eat, so food outlets will survive, boutique outlets will fold. |
|
By:
all ords slips under 4000. Headed towards 3000.Resource shares smashed.Rio to end the week under 62$. BHP down 3$ for the week.
aussie dolar under 97 cents currently.More downside to come. As I stated previously- dont say you were not told.Its just the beginning. Possibility of a bounce higher next week after the thanksgiving holiday.Thats your chance to jump ship if you have not already done so. |
|
By:
i'm all out. got enough for a half coffee half double decaff short bean latte withough the milk.
|
|
By:
Buy, Buy, Buy is what I see..
If you have a long term focus, these opportunities don't come around every day. Buy quality and hold for the long term IMO. |
|
By:
What will gold do MrB..ig?
|
|
By:
ok believe when i see
|
|
By:
Last time we were below 4000 points was back in early October, but we are still above lows that we have reached in the past few months
being a numismatics collector, silver, gold buyer, gold will always stay strong, silver is under valued. the markets are not in a free fall, to suggest all ords below 4000 and heading to 3000 is scare mongering, typical of panic sellers. |
|
By:
it could happen ... portugal now officially been given junk bond status also
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/GFC-2-dangerously-close-warns-yahoo7financewp-2571351150.html?x=0 |
|
By:
Time to sell my Nandos shares I guess
|
|
By:
imf are accumulating funds ... they have asked oz to raise our input from 5b to 10b
what they are going to do with those funds is the baffling thing .. they can't bail em all out lol |
|
By:
PTP- wrong strategy at the moment.Hold your fire. Far cheaper to come.
Lazza- I'm short gold.Many will scoff at that, but I believe that when the meltdown comes gold will be sold off to meet margin calls. megsy- my point exactly, markets are not in freefall-YET.Mining stocks are off around 10% in a week. Banks off.AUD has dropped about 11 cents from 107/8 in a month. At what point would you call it a "freefall"? megsy-I sold my stocks many many weeks ago. Not scaremongering.Opinion. I bet you a big mac with fries it gets closer to 3000 than 5000 over the next 12 months. jimbo- the problem with that is, you will have lost a large chunk of your investment by then. The thing to do is get short, I have been short the AUD since it was 107 some weeks ago. Buy puts if your savvy, otherwise just get out with the intention to buy back at lower prices. Eg I sold my remaining RIO some weeks ago at just over 70$. I could buy back today at I think $61.50 they closed or thereabouts.Easily be able to pick them up in the 50's soon. Is that an iceberg I see?  |
|
By:
It will have to hurry.
 |
|
By:
With many overseas Visas being cancelled, employment looks very good for locals in 2012. Local fee paying students may even have to get off their fat arsses and get a part time job when education fees rise shortly, not a bad thing. As for stocks, dividends are still very good, thats what is important. Long way yet for a recession, most don't realise how well off their been for the last 17 years.
|
|
By:
monday mike totally agree with you. all the younger forum users wouldnt havent experiance a recession as an adult. the amazing thing it has been around 17 years since the last one which tells me the country has been running strongly.
first sign was huge work force sackings. interest rates were at 18% |
|
By:
unemployment 5.2% i believe and has been around that for ages now - RELAX
 |
|
By:
monday mike- your kidding me right? "As for stocks,dividends are still very good, thats what is important." let me see- stock drop 10% in a week and head lower, already down aveage 16% for the year and a 5% PA divi is whats important? Did'nt put much thought into that did you?
 thread is indicating NOT what happened in the last 17 years OR what happened in the GFC in 2008.Its looking at whats to come in the near future.Try to get that point plz.  womble-ditto megsy.Unemploy will skyrocket, going well over 10% but official figures will never state that.Its politically unpalateable.USA figures show sub 10% still when it is well know the real figure is between 18 and 22% depending on which figures you shift around. Govt create new catergories of welfare so recepiants do not show as "unemployed" In any case thats all semantics.Its headed a low way down.Brace yourself. |
|
By:
always look on the bright side of life imo
country is good hands, budget is in good shape - we'll be fine |
|
By:
The unemployment rate in Australia was last reported at 5.2 percent in October of 2011. From 1978 until 2010, Australia's Unemployment Rate averaged 7.11 percent reaching an historical high of 10.90 percent in December of 1992 ( recession ) and a record low of 4.00 percent in February of 2008.
Australia reported a trade surplus equivalent to 2564 Million AUD in September of 2011 In Australia, the consumer confidence rose 6.3% in November to 103.4 points from 97.2 points in October of 2011 Australia reported a current account deficit equivalent to 7419 Million AUD in the second quarter of 2011 ( down from 17500 Million AUD in 2010 ) Australia exports were worth 27325 Million AUD in September of 2011 ( up from 18000 million AUD in sept 2010 ) Australia imports were worth 24761 Million AUD in September of 2011 The inflation rate in Australia was last reported at 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011. From 1937 until 2010, the average inflation rate in Australia was 6.02 percent Australia's main stock market index, the S&P/ASX 200, declined 538 points or 11.73 percent during the last 12 months. From 1992 until 2011 the S&P/ASX 200 market value averaged 3422.10 points reaching an historical high of 6828.70 points in November of 2007 and a record low of 1358.50 points in November of 1992 i think we are in really good shape  |
|
By:
debt levels?? any stats?
|
|
By:
debt 7419 Million AUD ( down from 17500 Million AUD in 2010 )
|
|
By:
nice stats megsy- problem is they are historical.The future is the debating point here. No one disputes we are/were in a good position.
"Its over guys, the good times for Aust are finished "- did you miss the opening line of the thread? " Australia's main stock market index, the S&P/ASX 200, declined 538 points or 11.73 percent during the last 12 months "- depends where you start the measurement point from. In any case if we are doing so well WHY is the stockmarket down? " stock prices represent an expectation of FUTURE earnings, stock are down because future expectations are bleak.Thats your answer. consumer confidence was up because interest rates were cut in that month, people feel good about that.. What consumers did'nt say was interest rates were cut because the economy has slowed. Get ready for more cuts.Mortgages will have a 5% + handle sometime in 2012 as the economy slows more. trade surplus occurred because mining exports have yet to slow[watch this space} but consumer purchasing in aust slowed , hence the need for less imports.Gerry harvey is flogging TV's for below cost{according to him}- why?- falling demand. re state the same stats in 6 months megsy and we will see if it looks so good.For interest if nothing else. one stat you missed- the AUD was 1.10 at its peak in the last 12 months and is now 97.A forward looking reflection of the deteriorating situation. |
|
By:
in july 2009 the AUD/USD dropped to 65 cents the world was in a recession, the federal government guaranteed banks funds after people were scare mongered,our banks are the strongest performers in the world, back then and now. this country is performing even better than pre world recession 2008.
|
|
By:
Australia's main stock market index, the S&P/ASX 200, declined 609 points or 13.26 percent during the last 12 months. From 1992 until 2011 the S&P/ASX 200 market value averaged 3422.34 points reaching an historical high of 6828.70 points in November of 2007 and a record low of 1358.50 points in November of 1992
|
|
By:
megsy- please google this word- FUTURE. thanks.
|
|
By:
let everyone make up their own mind...this is the best indept data there is, view the past, watch the present.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators |
|
By:
Leading indicators to look at imo are Baltic Dry, S%P 500, copper price. Don't worry too much about the local milk bar , it's a global economy. Add Euro bonds to the list if you like.
|
|
By:
Megsy ..Do you recommend an investment for then...sumpthin..anythin?
|
|
By:
fantastic link megsy,thanks
 . added to favourites.I see aust fertilizer consumption is up substantially from 1984 to 2008  |
|
By:
lazza...during recession, gold is the true world trading currency. whose got it all? china , everyone borrowed off china during the world collapse in 2008.
if the markets do crash, people will get out like 2008 and invest in housing, but theres a problem there, housings over priced. main reson rentals went up in 2009 through investement properties. china reminds me of america after WW1...america avoided entering the war till 6 months before it ended. it profited off other countries fighting, once the war was over, everyone was broke and America became a super power, rich. |
|
By:
So you do agree with MrB..ig then
 |
|
By:
lazza...i agree about a few things, but not to the extent he thinks.simple.
shakes head |
|
By:
mrben it seems like your just ignoring very valid points megsy is making, your saying to use the stock market to forecast because it suits your argument - but your dismissing other indicators which don't suit you.. research nber.org to get a more balanced view on forecasting (these guys are the absolute standard and aren't trying to sell newspapers or stock tips).
|