I must advise that the Australian government has been fudging he unemployment rate for over a decade now.
Ever wondered why crime has absolutely soared, drug industry has taken over?

Well it's simple really.
People do what they need to in order to survive.

And here's the rort the Government has pulled -

Unemployed persons are forced into unreasonable rules by the unemployment office.
If you breach these rules, you are struck off benefits and cast into the street.
You are off the books as unemployed!

Some might think this reasonable action to take, that's fair enough for bludgers and people who are just lazy, but there are hundreds out there that have legitimate reasons for a breach.

That's just scenario 1, it gets a whole lot better -

Unemployed persons are interviewed ad nauseam regarding problems, and it's suggested to them that they might be physically or mentally ill, because any unemployed person will be depressed at some stage.
So off unemployment you go, and onto a rehabilitation benefit with another organization which is also owned by the government.

So now the unemployment rate goes down again, because those turfed off benefits aren't counted, and those sent to some sort of therapy aren't counted either.
Those in therapy or rehab are actually helped, but you are not allowed to go back on unemployment benefit, THEY must find you a job.

The remaining unemployment recipients are then forced into taking any job that is not suitable, they are not trained for, they have no aptitude for, and will only ever be there for a few months. Either they will be fired or leave.

Now I agree that anyone should do any job to earn their keep, but does it make sense for a writer to become a bricklayer?
Not built for the job, no strength for the job, no understanding of the job, no training for the job.

In the above example that writer will be off benefits pre election and back on post election.

Get the picture?

the GFC was caused by a debt crisis, a private debt crisis

i ask how is our private debt situation looking? - the answer - terrible

i think this is what mrben is referring to in his outlook. I would like to be more positive but we have a completely over leveraged society with the servicing costs now strangling the rest of the economy (unless you work at a bank of course)

Overround: Im pretty sure if you work 4 hrs a week , they count you as employed as well

I worked in a employment company ( gov't contract one ) for 18 months or so .... support work with disabilities. Basically , my role was to liase with employers and keep the guys working....iron out any problems etc... I wasn't from the industry , when a open minded female boss of the company hired me....basically I learnt the disability side of things as I went along ....but was very good at handling workplace issues and keep the guys and employers in a comfortable place ....it was a great experience for me as it really opened my eyes up and learn't a lot about certain disabilities , minor and major. It's a bloody struggle at times for certain people....but some were on the DSP and others on normal allowances.... would scratch my head at times at how it was decided

ahh no mrben, both you and megsy have throughout your posts named leading, coincident and lagging indicators... all you have then done is said megsys leading data series is wrong.. yes forecasting like this isn't going to be perfect because the timing changes with each cycle but you have absolutely no justification for why you guessing about the market will be more accurate

unclee again you are wrong.

I at no stage questioned the validity of megsys stats.I stated that an extrapolation of them is folly.

I wonder can you  understand english well?

As  well as that how about you stop riding on the coattails of megsy and myself and offer your own views- supported or otherwise.?

Posting to merely ridicule other posts without contributing something put you in the lowest grade of posters.

Dont worry , your not on your own there, plenty wallowing around  down there.

If you had less interest in playing the man and more interest in  debating the thread, you would do better.However,based on your posts so far , its unlikely your capable of better.

Frankly VLTU,you do sound a bit crazy sometimes!

ten job capacity assessors have been told i'm a screw loose....... they won't believe it. ps: one day i'm going to take my kit off and run around watergardens centrelink starkers.

nope i was the guy in handcuffs being led out of the hole in the wall at the pub.

hehehehe==classic Megsy/LTU---ps--I though I recognized you LTU

ps-LTU-A good way to get rid of handcuff burns is by rubbing ice over your wrists...Ive had plenty of practice.....--ps--Not really..I wouldnt hurt a fly,unless it got in my way....

What the  f  uk is a ression

FITCH Ratings has upgraded Australia's foreign currency issuer default rating to AAA from AA+, on the country's strong economy, political institutions and flexible policy.

Fitch also affirmed Australia's local currency rating of AAA with a stable outlook.

The ratings upgrade reflected Australia's fundamental strengths, "including its high value-added economy, strong political, civil and social institutions and its flexible policy framework," said Art Woo, director in Fitch's Asia Sovereign Ratings group, in a statement today.

Fitch joined global ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's in giving Australia the highest possible investor rating.

Fitch said it viewed Australia's low government debt-to-GDP ratio, 26.3 per cent of GDP in 2010/11, as one of the standout strengths. In comparison, the median ratio in the AAA rating group was 55.7 per cent.

its the first time in history that the 3 global ratings agencies have at the same time given Australia a AAA rating.


THE European debt crisis may be weighing on global markets but Australia's mining giants, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, are upbeat the Chinese growth story has years to run.

Rio chief executive Tom Albanese is tipping iron ore usage will double globally from its 2008 level by 2020, and the miner is investing $US14 billion next year to ramp up production.

Rio also raised its iron ore production targets from the Pilbara to 353 million tonnes by the middle of 2015 - an increase of 20 million tonnes.

BHP Billiton chief Marius Kloppers also said yesterday he was optimistic about demand from China.

But he warned the availability of trade finance, the lifeblood of world commerce, could dry up if the European debt crisis worsens.

but contracts to fill 2012,13,14 are in full swing ensuring a massive trade uplift in exporting.

This government must go, they are running us into the ground

So long as we have Bob Brown at the helm all will be good.

Miracle Mile betting last Saturday was down about 20% in the major pools on NSW TAB and VIC TAB vs last year.  Win pools were sub 200K on both totes which is just terrible

This followed on from the Melbourne Cup TAB pools being down too year on year

These stats don't lie and are your best guide.  It is game over and those drowning in debt are now cutting back their spending in fear

Forget about all the government stats, RBA stats, Moodys or Fitch ratings services.  All these are too easily manipulated and cannot be compared accurately.  Just look at the Miracle Mile and Melbourne Cup TAB pools year on year and you will see the true state of the Aussie economy

didn't fitch give the United States a AAA just 18 months before the GFC and sub-prime disaster ?

Fettuccine

its called competition, even now Bunnings has stiff opposition in the chain of masters stores being built close to bunnings stores and are bigger and even have mcdonalds inside, well the 2 on my part of town has.

For a chap who doesn't know that the price of WTI is not the price of oil, I wouldn't expect you to understand what the OECD said about Australia, or for anyone else for that matter.

Here's your warped interpretation:

"Aust- basically it said that despite a current healthy situation that aust is in danger of a recession because- CHINA's customers are going to go into recession big time  and that means they will buy less.Euro and USA of course are the biggest customers."

Here's what they actually said:

Australia - Economic forecast summary (November 2011)

"The growth of the Australian economy, which was slowed by natural disasters in early 2011, should pick up and remain above or around potential in 2012 and 2013. Vigorous investment and exports, buoyed by the mining boom, along with the positive income effect of high terms of trade, should offset the negative impact on activity of a persistently strong exchange rate and fiscal consolidation. Unemployment is expected to stay low and underlying inflation contained as the remaining slack in the economy gradually disappears."

http://www.oecd.org/document/15/0,3746,en_2649_34109_45268687_1_1_1_1,00.html


Can't you just STFU and stop embarrassing yourself with this financial stuff? Seriously, this is getting beyond pathetic.....