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The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
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of course gdp is up!
population keep rising thru immigration, gdp has to be up.  just like "jobs created " will be up next time. economy still in recession.   all govt figs paint a much rosier picture than real life events. reserve bank cut rates just yesterday due to the subdued economy. Why did they do that? because we are in recession. the recession ps.Im away for a few days so don't wet your nappies when I dont reply.  |
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1+1=2.....F/Y/I.
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When am i going to go broke? Or is this prediction just more conservative spin (insert bull*hit instead of spin)
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as an individual pcisa .. well only you can know
as a country, however, information relating to that is published for example ... this media release took place yesterday ... just one day before the gdp media release ... Australia's net IIP liability position was $880.2b at 31 March 2012, an increase of $23.8b on 31 December 2011. Australia's net foreign debt liability increased $7.0b to a liability position of $742.1b. Australia's net foreign equity liability increased $16.8b to a liability position of $138.1b. But when you search to find out who actually owns australia's debt you run into a hidden brick wall ... as the RBA don't publish it, they just categorise it ... with the major component holder (70%+) listed merely as … "All Other" Should this pattern continue .. our national debt will be increasing about $100 billion a year. I do not say that our debt will be “called in” by the owners of the debt. But you can bet we sure as hell are paying interest on it. So, when will our country go broke is a genuine question, in this 'merry-go-money-round' of international debt and borrowings. And we sure as hell better hope it aint the EU that hold our marker. As they might want theirs back shortly in regards to their own ‘financial housekeeping problems”. Should we all just jump off a bridge yet. I doubt we need to. Australia is holding up well independently. But our debt “markers” are out there. And the public record doesn’t advise us specifically who owns them. And neither major party have ever asked the RBA to make this information publically available. |
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you can find that info on the bank for international settlements thebas
http://www.bis.org/statistics/bankstats.htm |
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cheers uncleee, appreciated, i'll have a snoop on that over a beer this evening
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Thebas - The commonwealth's debt is about 83% owned by offshore investors. Much of this would be overseas central banks and sovereign funds (ie. Future Fund equivalents). Very sticky, long-term money. The state debt would have significant offshore ownership, but not as high as the commonwealth debt. Given that in the event of a state going bankrupt, the commonwealth government would step in, you can reasonably suppose that the public debts of the country are equal to those of the Commonwealth AND all the states and territories. I'm guessing, but let's say 70% is owned off shore. None of these investors would 'call in' the debt - its' not that type of debt. What they might do if they want out is sell on the bond market.
(You mention the EU holders of our debt maybe selling as they need the dollars. The other slightly more complicated factor at work here is collateral. You need collateral to hold debt. As a AAA-rated debt, Australian bonds would have the highest collateral rating of what EU countries own. They’d do more harm than good selling Aussie bonds first if their motivation was purely to cash up.) Now keep in mind that Australia's public debt vs GDP is fine by historic standards and super-low by present international standards. Right now, Australian bonds are at record lows (although yields have risen ~40bs this week). 3 year bonds are about 2.40%, 10 year bonds are 3.10%. In other words, the Commonwealth Government can currently borrow pretty much as much as they want - given they are coming off a low base - at all-time record low levels of interest. Or to put it more simply, there has never been a time in Australia's history where it can secure finance for long-term projects (infrastructure, hospitals, schools, whatever) so cheaply. Doesn't it make sense, right now, to lock away some extra cash and put it to work? (this means going into deficit now, but if now, when?) Since when did conservative levels of debt, at low interest rates, for long-term projects for the social good become such a bad word? Friggin politicians. Anyway, the country isn't going broke, unless it does something really really silly from here, which is not out of the question given those currently in Canberra (on both sides of the house)! (NOTE: I talk of public debt above. Australia's private debt, that owed by companies and individuals is the second highest in the G20. Much of this is driven by two main factors - individuals gearing up into overpriced housing and the big banks gearing their balance sheets to levels higher than most European banks in order to fund individuals gearing up into overpriced housing. SO the country isn't going broke, but many individuals probably are. And so the banks will follow.) |
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cheers again Vo for an excellent summation ... i aint jumping lol
i am interested and have done some reseacrh on this scenario that you mention ... The commonwealth's debt is about 83% owned by offshore investors. Much of this would be overseas central banks and sovereign funds ... i cant find difinitive only anecdotal info on this but ... central banks seem to be a major force now in western and many eastern countries ... yet were once a merely background entitities ... (and with their full ownership quite clouded ie us fed reserve) |
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Spain said 2 days ago that it wouldn't need a bailout!
Don't believe everything you hear from Govts. |
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ANZ job ads at 3 months lows
non mining investment at 7 year lows Darrell Lea- out the back door the recession |
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I though the consumer confidence numbers released in the past 24 hours were interesting too. They’re slightly improved in a period following rate cuts and pre-carbon tax payments. But the current overall level of confidence is consistent with a much slower pace of household activity. Might we be about to see a very sudden slow down?
• Some June qtr data was unusually strong (GDP, employment etc). A fair amount of statistical anomaly here you’d think, and that will need to be ‘paid back’ in coming months with very weak data to even up. • recent government payments to the household sector boosted June Qtr activity. The flip side is this is now absent but utility price increases and new taxes are shifting things in the opposite direction • The very real prospect of the masses realising that a housing correction is underway and for the 1.7m taxpayers negatively geared, that’s not going to encourage consumption. The locals rags are really ramping up negative property stories now, and that, in part, becomes self-fulfilling • The weather – been awful everywhere. If the US data had a boost from a mild winter early in 2012, couldn’t we have a hole from a terrible winter? (Plus we're probably only going to win about 5 medals in London and this forum will be swarming with unemployed 40yos from Swindon.) I think at some point in the second half of this year the Aussie data could fall off a cliff. Half the game these days is confidence, and this might be the final straw. The biggest risk for many is this: this is not just another cyclical down turn. It is structural and semi-permanent. Understand the credit boom and you'll understand this. Those who mistake it for just another cyclical downturn and hold on to bad assets, or worse, bad leveraged assets or those who try to pick bottoms in declining asset prices, they’re going to get cooked ala-lobster. Slowly slowly. Of course, none of this accounts for what can only be a deteriorating global growth story. |
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foreign analyists now looking at the aust situation.
Australia Is No Spain: Wayne Swan Published: Wednesday, 11 Jul 2012 | 2:05 AM ET Text Size By: Ansuya Harjani Assistant Producer, CNBC Asia 38 0 Share Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan has denied that Australia’s economy is at risk of a Spain-like economic crisis, calling the thesis put forth by the former chief Asia-Pacific economist for Morgan Stanley, Andy Xie “absurd”. Getty Images Australia Treasurer Wayne Swan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- “It’s absurd - the Australian economy and its economic fundamentals are very strong. On a yearly basis we are growing at 4 percent – we are going to grow faster than any other developed economy this year and next,” Swan told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Wednesday. “Let’s go through the fundamentals – bringing our budget back to surplus in 2012-2013, low unemployment, strong job creation over time, a record investment pipeline in resources – half a trillion (dollars). What planet does he live on?” he added. Xie, an independent economist with sometimes controversial views, argues that Australia is at danger of becoming the next Spain due to its reliance on foreign demand, especially from its biggest trading partner China, which he believes is decelerating faster than headline growth numbers suggest. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on the mining sector, which accounts for 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and half of the country’s total export earnings. “In Spain it was government bonds that attracted foreign money. Foreigners flooded Spanish bonds because they had high interest rates and were very attractive. That foreign money pumped up a property bubble,” Xie told CNBC Asia's "Cash Flow". In the case of Australia, investors have been rushing to invest in the mining sector. Xie believes the bursting of Australia’s mining boom could unwind that flow of money with disastrous consequences. RELATED LINKS Current DateTime: 12:20:06 11 Jul 2012 LinksList Documentid: 48143820 Australia Heading for ‘Mother of All Hard Landings’: ProsIs Australia’s ‘Extraordinary’ Growth a One-Off?Aussie Markets at Turning Point as China Slows Further To top it off, house prices in some Australian cities have grown close to 10 percent annually in the past decade, leading to a wave of borrowing against home valuations. Household debt in the country has been around 150 percent of disposable income since 2006. As China’s demand for resources declines, Xie says that could have a knock-on effect on the property market. “As global commodity prices come down, mining will decline and the property bubble will burst,” he said, adding that a property crash will take down the county’s banking system as well. Xie sees a distinct parallel with Spain, whose economic crisis was triggered by a collapse of its overheated housing market, leaving domestic banks with billions of bad loans. Australia’s Strong Fiscal Position But Swan argues Australia’s flexibility to lower interest rates further alongside its strong fiscal position, with low levels of public debt at 8.9 percent of GDP, ensures that the economy is well positioned to weather a downturn. However, Xie says that Spain’s government also ran surpluses prior to the crisis - earning more in tax revenue than it was spending. “During the (property) bubble, the Spanish government (also) ran surpluses. The economy was very strong but it (started) losing competitiveness and that’s what we’re seeing in Australia today.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/48143819 |
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also this
Australia is headed for the “mother of all hard landings,” according to Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, who says the country’s “credit bubble” could burst if China’s economy suffers a sharp slowdown full article http://www.cnbc.com/id/47290031 all these articles are based on an anticipation that china slows and hence mining slides. I would hate to see the results on retail if mining goes back to normal levels. |
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Australian jobs lose 33,500. News claims it as a "surprise"
 .What is the surprise it that in preceding months jobs were added.Our non mining economy is contracting badly.Mining is making a great effort to support a sinking ship.When you consider that population is expanding via immigration, a loss of jobs is a dreadful statistic. Wait for the effects of the carbon tax to kick in, its going to be bad.B.A.D. Australia Employment Takes a Surprise Slip in June Published: Wednesday, 11 Jul 2012 | 10:01 PM ET Text Size Australian employment fell by 27,000 in June, a surprisingly weak outcome that sent the local dollar lower and led investors to price in a greater chance of further cuts in interest rates. Thursday's data from the government compared to forecasts of a flat outcome and represented pay back for a strong 27,900 gain in May. All the loss came in full-time jobs which dropped by 33,500. The unemployment rate rose a notch to 5.2 percent, as expected, while fewer people were looking for work. "They're not great really, weaker than expected," Michael Turner, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets. the recession http://www.cnbc.com/id/48155900 |
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the recession bites further into aussies wealth. Jobs lost, houses continue to fall
Property prices roll back to 2002 and may fall further Yahoo!7 Finance – 3 hours ago 2 Australia’s property market is becoming more and more affordable, says Reserve Bank chief Glenn Stevens. While various property analysts claim house prices are now too expensive for many Australians, the RBA governor reports there is no affordability crisis. "Scaled to measures of income, Australian dwelling prices on a national basis have in fact declined and are now about where they were in 2002," said Mr Steven in a speech yesterday. "That is, housing has become more affordable. "Four or five years ago we supposedly had a housing affordability crisis. Now it seems that the problem some people fear is that of housing becoming even more affordable." The RBA chief did admit that house prices rose dramatically in the 10 years following 1995 in an address, titled The Lucky Country, in support of the Anika Foundation. Related: We should build on our luck: RBA's Stevens Mr Stevens then went on to say that housing prices could continue to fall and commented that it would be risky to assume that they wouldn’t. "It is a very dangerous idea to think that dwelling prices cannot fall," said Stevens. "They can, and they have." "We should never say a crash couldn't happen here, and the Reserve Bank continues to monitor property markets and the performance of mortgages quite closely," said Mr Stevens. While local property prices have fallen 5 to 10 percent from their peak here, this compares with a stunning 30 per cent decline in US property prices and a significant drop in most European property markets. http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-prices-at-2002-levels-.html the recession |
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errrrrrrrrrrrrrr did I tell you or did I tell you
 my detrators have egg all over their faces whilst they tAKE A LARGE SERVE OF humble pie. the socialist ****s here are all over me all the time, but yet, once again- I triumph. Commodities price boom is over: Ferguson Cortlan Bennett, AAP July 13, Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says the commodities price boom is over as China's economy slows. AAP © Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says the commodities price boom is over as China's economy slows. Australia blew the last mining boom and can no longer rely on high commodities prices, federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says, as China's economy continues to slow. "From here on in, the premium prices are gone," Mr Ferguson told AAP at the opening of the new Australian Minerals Research Centre in Perth on Friday. "We're not going to see iron ore at $US180-$US190 a tonne, we're not going to see thermal coal at about $US170 (a tonne), coking coal at about $US320 a tonne any more. "The only way we will maintain our revenue stream as a country, at a state and federal level, is if we expand capacity." While Australia was in the midst of the greatest mining boom in its history - with $270 billion committed to future projects and $230 billion more potentially on the way - it had failed to fully cash in on the previous boom of the mid-2000s, the resources minister said. "Australia did not, as a nation, and nor did the companies, get the last resources boom right," he said. "China grew quicker than expected - they failed to invest in capacity and we lost market share." Mr Ferguson said Australia was already disadvantaged by its high labour costs and the resources sector needed to be more efficient. "We are, in essence, a high-wage economy," he said. "As grades fall and input costs rise, the Australian resources sector will only continue to prosper if more efficient mining and processing techniques are implemented. http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/14308214/commodities-price-boom-is-over-ferguson/ |
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All the doomsday people, You should travel more, get overseas, see how lucky we are in this great country.
Open your eyes & stop plying the party line like doped up robots. The only problem we have in this country are people that eat propoganda & media that have little talent but live on feeding fear. We live in the best country in the world, have a think about your life compared to people in alot of countries you've visited. |
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crikey ... has he spoken to our julia yet ?
Resources Minister Martin Ferguson "We're not going to see iron ore at $US180-$US190 a tonne, we're not going to see thermal coal at about $US170 (a tonne), coking coal at about $US320 a tonne any more. "The only way we will maintain our revenue stream as a country, at a state and federal level, is if we expand capacity." ******** julia and her fake environmental tax lololol ... the truth is now out .. they want (need) to BURN MORE SHAME ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT EH JULIA-R ... that was your reason for the fake co2 tax wasn't it JULIA-R |
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excellent points BAS.
the mining tax is poorly contructed and predicated on a never ending boom at maximum prices.Wayne swann will now deliver a deficit, just a question of how big. Implications for the broader economy are much more serious. |
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Get your travel in.The aussie dollars will be below 90 cents soon and may go to 60 cents ultimatly.
This recession will be savage because the much of the world will have an even worse time of it than us. Politicians- far from providing solutions will just make the pain worse. if your holding stocks sell asap and buy back in down the track at heavily reduced prices. update....Aus dollar at 1.05 All Ords at 4372 (was 4111 at time of the original post..... Any time frame on the dire predictions of doom and gloom? 2025 maybe? |
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Oh and lets not forget the other marker that was chosen, retail figures:
(Seasonally adjusted) November 2011 Retail turnover (in millions): 21000 June 2012..................................: 21600 |
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Can the author of this ridiculous thread please explain what a Ression is?
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