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The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.

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Replies: 662
By:
Thebas
When: 23 May 12 05:33
it would appear australia ... on the back of post gfc survival and oecd etc talk ups ... were some sort of pseudo safe-haven for external overseas investors to place their liquidity for a while ... in our locla stocks & cash etc

once they pull out (which seems to be happening) ... and take their money elsewhere ... well fk me it wont be pretty here

now if you knew where the money was going .. and followed that to another part-time safe haven .. then you might make a quid or least keep up

and the carbon crunch on businesses and therefore eventually citizens hasn't even begun yet  Sad
By:
Mrben
When: 23 May 12 05:38
exactly BAS, it won't be pretty. Downright bone uguly I say.

the carbon tax will really hurt the economy.

the iceberg of economic destruction is barely in focus, but the future devastion remains .

the recessionCry
By:
Niccolo_Machiavelli
When: 23 May 12 06:17
Sorry bas?

But how is the CT going to hurt this economy when people are getting adequately compensated?? The CT will also increase competition amongst the big and small businesses.

We still have a pipeline with investment money still pouring in.
Small business getting tax cuts WHICH the Liberals are were opposed too.

But I understand if you don't want everyday Australian's to prosper Bas because I know MrBen does not.

Keep voting Liberal.

Regards,
Niccolo
By:
Thebas
When: 23 May 12 06:43
sorry nic .. there's a whole thread on the carbon tax devoted to answering your genuine but innocent questions ...

i do want aussies to prosper yes ... cow-toeing to a UN/UE/IPCC agenda ... would not serve this purpose

you can strt a read here ... just a suggestion .. to where it all began .. the Big R global bankers won sadly .. cest la vie

this is from the
look for the heading "A Currency Tax" ...  Sad

http://www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/afrec/vol15no4/154finan.htm
By:
Thebas
When: 23 May 12 06:44
sorry
... this is from the  .... UN WEBSITE ITSELF
By:
Niccolo_Machiavelli
When: 23 May 12 06:55
I'll have to read that later its a long article.

The only concern I have about UN/Nato is how America are sending more and more troops to us. They occupy just about every country surrounding Russia now they are surrounding China..Scary.
By:
Thebas
When: 23 May 12 07:01
cheers nic

not the whole article ... just the paragraph headed "A Currency Tax"

the global bankers somehow managed to change the mind of the UN ffs

they flipped a coin .. and to redistribute the wealth they settled on a fossil fuel tax

if they told us all the truth ... well who can say what our opinion might be

but they wrapped it like a lolly in the Global Warming sceenario .. that they changed later to the inocuous Climate Change

all to sell a global tax .. that SHOULD have been on the bankers and their currency transactions

still its a long story ... and the Big R global bankers won .. cest la vie

everyone for themselves now it seems ...
By:
GoVoGo
When: 23 May 12 07:20
Thebas wrote:
"it would appear australia ... on the back of post gfc survival and oecd etc talk ups ... were some sort of pseudo safe-haven for external overseas investors to place their liquidity for a while ... in our locla stocks & cash etc

once they pull out (which seems to be happening) ... and take their money elsewhere ... well fk me it wont be pretty here"

Not quite.  Overseas investors have been flooding into the Australian bond market over the past few months, mainly as our bond yields were significantly higher than that of other 'safe, AAA' countries.  Oz 5%, US 2.7% etc.  Ironically, it's the prospect of our economy slowing that's caused the rush: with a growing prospect of lower official RBA rates in Australia, the higher bond yields weren't going to last.  Hurry Hurry!

Our 10 year bond rate has fallen significantly in the past two months, and significantly more so than US bonds.  Overseas buyers are the big movers here.

So yes, there's an increased perception of the Australian economy slowing significantly, but there's no lack of confidence in the country as any sort of credit risk.  Offshore investors now own over 83% of our government bonds! 

The fall in the $A and the sharemarket is in line with a risk aversion tone across global markets in the past fortnight.

I stand by my call that this country is going to visit some exceedingly hard times in the next two years.
By:
AFL
When: 23 May 12 07:37
Thebas posted...but they wrapped it like a lolly in the Global Warming sceenario .. that they changed later to the inocuous Climate Change all to sell a global tax.

The skeptic argument...

They changed the name from global warming to climate change


What the science says...


There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'". In reality, the two terms mean different things, have both been used for decades, and the only individual to have specifically advocated changing the name in this fashion is a global warming 'skeptic'.

Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical phenomena.  As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature, which you can see here:

'Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average global temperature.  For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather, etc.  These projections of future global precipitation changes from the 2007 IPCC report are an example of climate change:

Thus while the physical phenomena are causally related, they are not the same thing.  Human greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming, which in turn is causing climate change.  However, because the terms are causally related, they are often used interchangeably in normal daily communications.
Both Terms Have Long Been Used

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. 

However, this is simply untrue.  For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C).  Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'.  The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today).  The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'.  There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago.  There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.

In fact, according to Google Books, the usage of both terms in books published in the United States has increased at similar rates over the past 40 years:

And a Google Scholar search reveals that the term 'climate change' was in use before the term 'global warming', and has always been the more commonly-used term in scientific literature:

No Reason to Change the Term

Those who perpetuate the "they changed the name" myth generally suggest two reasons for the supposed terminology change.  Either because (i) the planet supposedly stopped warming, and thus the term 'global warming' is no longer accurate, or (ii) the term 'climate change' is more frightening.

The first premise is demonstrably wrong, as the first figure above shows the planet is still warming, and is still accumulating heat.  Quite simply, global warming has not stopped.

The second premise is also wrong, as demonstrated by perhaps the only individual to actually advocate changing the term from 'global warming' to 'climate change', Republican political strategist Frank Luntz in a controversial memo advising conservative politicians on communicating about the environment:

    It’s time for us to start talking about “climate change” instead of global warming and “conservation” instead of preservation.

    “Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming”. As one focus group participant noted, climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.

Summary

So to sum up, although the terms are used interchangeably because they are causally related, 'global warming' and 'climate change' refer to different physical phenomena. 

The term 'climate change' has been used frequently in the scientific literature for many decades, and the usage of both terms has increased over the past 40 years. 

Moreover, since the planet continues to warm, there is no reason to change the terminology.  Perhaps the only individual to advocate the change was Frank Luntz, a Republican political strategist and global warming skeptic, who used focus group results to determine that the term 'climate change' is less frightening to the general public than 'global warming'.

There is simply no factual basis whatsoever to the myth "they changed the name from global warming to climate change".

Last updated on 6 January 2011 by dana1981.


Wink
By:
Thebas
When: 23 May 12 07:52
GoVoGo wrote
I stand by my call that this country is going to visit some exceedingly hard times in the next two years.

... cheers vo appears that way for sure

afl just a pure coincidence no doubt that the UN chose fossil fuel tax rather then currency tax to fund the money they need for the 3rd world predominantly africa and more specifically sub-saharan africa

and an even greater coincidence that countries such as australia have committed 10% of any raised revenue from a fossil fuel tax for the UN program of wealth redistribution

yeah ... cant buy it sorry Laugh
By:
Mrben
When: 29 May 12 04:05
another week another bankruptcy.

hastie engineering-gone. 2700 stood down.  2000 expected to lose their jobs.

the recesssion spreads to engineering.Cry




benefits of the mining boom being wastedCry

.







Think tank claims Australia has wasted billions of dollar in proceeds of the mining boom. Picture: File



AUSTRALIA has wasted the proceeds of the mining boom estimated at more than $200 billion, according to think tank Per Capita.

In a report released yesterday, Per Capita said the Howard and Rudd governments used about half the windfall - $105 billion - to shore up the Commonwealth's fiscal position.

It estimated that the pre-GFC phase of the mining boom had delivered at least $180 billion to the economy.

"We paid off $36 billion of sovereign debt and put $69 billion into long-term savings funds. This was the responsible course of action," it said.

"But the remaining $75 billion represents a big missed opportunity. The Howard Government gave at least $25 billion away in tax cuts and concessions.

"It used another $50 billion on inflated spending programs and various cash handouts, from the baby bonus to the First Home Owners' Grants.

"We missed the opportunity to invest $75 billion in long-term productive assets


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/per-capita-report-claims-australia-has-wasted-mining-boom-proceeds-estimated-at-200-billion/story-fnda1bsz-1226370915200#ixzz1wDxMQpc0

despite all these disasters, no doubt the next set of govt figures will show " growth" and XXXXXXX  "jobs created" IMAHO!!!

the recessionCry
By:
Mrben
When: 30 May 12 22:48
dow jones down 160 overnight.

ASX set to fall yet again, this week sees  the 200 billion mark passed that has been wiped of aussie superannuation accounts.

the recession Cry
By:
AFL
When: 30 May 12 23:22
The only recession going on is inside your head.
By:
Thebas
When: 31 May 12 01:09
http://au.news.yahoo.com/queensland/a/-/latest/13824161/gillard-faces-down-mining-bosses/


"And here's the rub: you don't own the minerals; they own it and they deserve their share," she added.

"Governments only sell you the right to mine the resource - a resource we hold in trust for a sovereign people."

.......  she has clearly gone mad hasn't she lol  Silly



**************


followed today by ....

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bhp-billiton-freezes-major-project-074339651.html


"It's effectively sending out the sort of message to the market that hey, at the end of the day, we can turn supply on and off," Mr Wendt said.

"And if we don't see a strong pricing environment for our commodities where we can generate a reasonable margin, then we'll leave the stuff in the ground." Platypus Asset Management portfolio manager Prasad Patkar says rising costs are also deterring expansion.


...........  agreat time for our govt ... well julia .. to be having an arm wrestle with the holders of our econimc boom ... ffs Cry
By:
Mrben
When: 31 May 12 01:29
aussie market down 60 points.

AUD hits 96.76!  yikes!!!!

the recession  begins to strip away  aussie lifestyle and accumulated wealth.

more proof

Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate, global property analyst Jordan Wirsz says
Save this story to read later

    By Sonja Koremans
    news.com.au
    January 20, 2012 4:16PM

    Predictions of a property crash
    "Prices could fall more than 60 per cent"
    Local experts disagree with the naysayers

ALSO

    Just parking the car costs us $300m

39 comments
0
real estate

US real estate analyst Jordan Wirsz believes Australia is heading towards a property bloodbath as the global economic downturn spreads. Picture: File

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Find and compare bank accounts
Related Coverage

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End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to be tested amid predictions prices will plummet by as much as 60 per cent, with capital cities hardest hit.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/bloodbath-to-hit-australian-real-estate-property-analyst-jordan-wirsz-says/story-e6frfmd0-1226248472949#ixzz1wP0yh9um

and this

As the Australian housing bubble bursts, prices could fall a lot further than people expect: Steve Keen

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/as-the-australian-housing-bubble-bursts-prices-could-fall-a-lot-further-than-people-expect-steve-keen/2012053054914

want more?Cry

House prices continue to fall

Updated May 18, 2012 00:22:13

This week's RP Data national house price index is down 1.7 per cent, with Melbourne especially on the cusp of a crisis with an oversupply of houses and a slow economy.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/house-prices-continue-to-fall/4018416


anyone who believes the economy is not in recession is about as smart as AFLTongue Out

the recessionCryCry
By:
Mrben
When: 31 May 12 07:11
mining projects getting shelved before the mining tax and carbon tax come in

BHP Billiton freezes major project approvals
ABCBy business reporter Michael Janda | ABC – 22 hours ago

    1
    Email
    Print

The world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, says it is freezing all board-level major project approvals for six months.

The statement by BHP Billiton's chief executive Marius Kloppers reinforces a warning earlier this month by the miner's chairman Jacques Nasser that the company would scale back its $80 billion investment plans.

The message was delivered directly to its major customer, China, through a major Chinese news agency.

"You should not expect in the next six months any new major approval of projects," he told Caixin Media.

"The economics of some of these projects is changed.

I think for the next two years, 18 months perhaps, will we just wait and see how things develop." The company says his comments are not a change of policy, but BHP Billiton had previously planned to make a decision on major expansions such as South Australia's Olympic Dam mine by the middle of this year.

A board decision on that expansion must be made by December 15, otherwise the South Australian Government's approval expires and BHP will have to head back to the negotiating table.

South Australia's Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis says the deadline for approval is non-negotiable.

"BHP Billiton knew at the time of the signing of the indenture that the approvals came with a time limit," Mr Koutsantonis told the ABC in a statement.

"To date, I have not received any request for an extension and we are proceeding in the expectation that the board will meet and approve this project before the end of this year." While Mr Kloppers' self-imposed six-month moratorium on expansion decisions ends just before the December deadline, Minelife 's senior resource analyst Gavin Wendt says the Olympic Dam expansion is in doubt.

"It's still 50-50.

I've had my doubts, it's taken a long time for the [feasibility] study to be completed," Mr Wendt said.

"If BHP was really dead keen on getting the project into production I think the whole process could have been expedited.

"I don't think BHP really wants to be flooding the market over the next five years or so with new supply [of copper, gold and uranium]." He says that is because the future of many commodity prices is too uncertain to guarantee a good return.

"It's effectively sending out the sort of message to the market that hey, at the end of the day, we can turn supply on and off," Mr Wendt said.

"And if we don't see a strong pricing environment for our commodities where we can generate a reasonable margin, then we'll leave the stuff in the ground." Platypus Asset Management portfolio manager Prasad Patkar says rising costs are also deterring expansion.

"The pressure on costs has become so intense for the large mining projects and it comes at a time when commodity prices are starting to flatten at best and coming back a bit," Mr Wendt explained.

That has made boards unwilling to commit to new projects until the economic situation becomes more clear.

Mr Patkar says a lack of skilled labour is largely to blame for the cost issues.

"A lot of projects are being sanctioned around the world and around Australia at a time when the supply of skilled labour just can't catch up in the short term," he said.

Skilled labour shortages are a problem for miners around the world, but Paul Gray, the principal iron ore analyst for global resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Radio National Breakfast that cost increases have been especially large in Australia.

"In the mining sector they [wages] roughly doubled since 2005.

Australian wage rates in the mining sector are amongst the highest in the world now," he said.

However, while costs are rising across the mining sector, the quality of Australia's iron ore deposits means that it still remains among the lowest cost producers.

"Operating costs may be somewhere around $40 to $50 a tonne, and for China small scale, high cost private mines now has operating costs above $120 a tonne," Mr Gray explained.

He says that cost differential will limit iron ore price declines, as unprofitable Chinese mines halt production when prices fall too low.

"That should provide some underlying support at levels pretty close to where we are today - it may be $10 or so below current levels," he added.

Mr Patkar says that makes BHP's iron ore plans, such as an expansion of Port Headland's harbour, the least likely to be canned.

"I think the BHP iron ore expansion is the safest of the three large projects that they are considering," he concluded.

Mr Wendt says the long-term outlook for many commodities is good, and BHP Billiton has reacted to short-term investor concerns that it is spending too much on expanding production.

"They have been criticised in some aspects of the market, but particularly by one of their major shareholders BlackRock, for spending too much money on long-term development projects," he observed.

"They seem to be reacting to the negative near-term sentiment that's around in the financial markets at the present time."

the recessionCryCry

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bhp-billiton-freezes-major-project-074339651.html
By:
Niccolo_Machiavelli
When: 01 Jun 12 06:47
MrBen,
Could you tell me another time when the Australian dollar was this strong?
Can you tell me the last time capital expenditure was in 170billions?

You cant?? Oh. But if we are facing a recession why do people keep investing here?????

You make no sense.

Regards,
Niccolo
By:
Mrben
When: 04 Jun 12 02:31
stocks hit a 9 month lowCry

16 billion wiped of the value of stocks this morningCry

aussie dollar at 8 months low and plummetingCry

house prices continue to fallCry

the recession begins to accelerate.

the recessionCryCryCry
By:
lazza
When: 04 Jun 12 02:47
Thx for the update MrB...I heard Friday was bad in the U.S ..was that right... about jobs or something?
By:
Mrben
When: 04 Jun 12 02:52
yes lazza, US jobs were 69,000 created against 133,000 predicted and at a 9 month low. Growth in US is stalling as  QE2 dollars have ended. US remain the worlds bigggest economy.
  If it stalls , on top of china deliberatly slowing and the europe disaster, world economies must fall more.

We are not insulated and will fall particularly hard given the mix of poor  govt policy, unbalanced economy ( 2 speed), high dependance on china, high taxes,  overpriced property, etc etc.
By:
Mrben
When: 04 Jun 12 02:55
just released

australian Q1 profits down 8.3%

thats confirmation of the recession.

no wonder jobs are being lost

the recessionCryCry
By:
bigted.
When: 04 Jun 12 03:09
[   This image is no longer available.   ]


Grin mug
By:
lazza
When: 04 Jun 12 03:12
What's B.H.P @ MrB ..wasn't someone on here saying we should buy?..I can;t remember what price it was at the time do you?.... small comparison for us.
By:
Proud To Punt
When: 04 Jun 12 03:15
probably me Lazza.......I love the Big Australian and been buying them for years. Some at crazy prices both on the high and low end. It all balances out nicely over time and dividends are a nice cherry as well. But today, tommorrow and the next.....then repeat these steps.
By:
lazza
When: 04 Jun 12 03:23
So how have the B.H.P stocks been lately P2p?
By:
Proud To Punt
When: 04 Jun 12 03:34
depends on which way you look at it. On paper, my value is heading south of late........however I can buy more shares for my dollar of late.........the shares I have today are worth so much more than the ones I bought in the early 90's..........then again the ones I bought at the height of the ASX are well below what I paid..........glass half empty/full scenario IMO
By:
lazza
When: 04 Jun 12 03:45
Do you remember what they were in Nov when this thread started ..they would have dropped since then you'd think?..
By:
Proud To Punt
When: 04 Jun 12 03:51
yes, they would be down since last November. I recall them trading between $33ish and $38ish for a while late last year.
By:
Mrben
When: 04 Jun 12 04:09
BHP is 31.09 atm.

what P2P is referring to is dollar cost averaging. Its a legitimate strategy for those with a long time horizon.

I'm a daytrader predominantly few days at the most. I have been a bid seller of bhp, rio and in particular fortescue.

My view is that resources stocks have a long way to fall yet.

BHP has a low of 20.00 on nov 1 2008, plenty of room to fall still.
By:
AFL
When: 04 Jun 12 07:41
Mrben 17 May 12 22:16


I remember when google listed at 120$.The same  mouthpieces then were saying "its too expensive". It did nothing but go up.

I think facebook will be similar.

Don't underestimate the savvy of the guys running these companies.You  dont get a billion users by accident.they will find a way to make it pay.

The leverage with all those users is enormous one they  find the formula.

For example- what's to stop them listing google ads on each FB page, linked to the persons interests? Google already has this software.

Down the right hand side an unobtrusive say 10/15% of the page. On General motors page for eg , google ads for dealers or car selling sites. Too easy.

facebook is a buy buy buy for investors.

...............................................

Mrben 18 May 12 09:30


your  "math" melly exposes your for the retard you are.

no  doubt when facebook hits 100$ you  will claim its ' for the wrong reasons"

what was the revenue for google when it listed? Did it stay the same?

You retard.

your posts are so bizzarre they are no longer worth reading except  for entertainment.

you have demonstrated over and over how incredibly  simplistic you are.

your analysis of FB is high school standard.

your gold graph extraoplation if maybe  primary school .

I have no doubt you are the dumbest person in the history of financial forums.

facebook will hit 100$ no problems.For the same reasons AAPL and google went from strength to strength.

something a retard simpleton like you melly will never understand or accept.

.....................................................


Mrben 18 May 12 14:26


7 minutes to  the listing.

Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook

LoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLove


...............................................
Mrben 18 May 12 14:41


the smile on zuckerberg's face will be as big as the frown on mellysWhoops


Go facebook
Go facebook

.....................................................



















Mrben 23 May 12 01:00

I got facebook wrong.Cry

get over it melly.

.................................................................



Whoops
By:
PCisaripoff
When: 04 Jun 12 07:46
What is a RESSION?
By:
AFL
When: 04 Jun 12 08:03
Good luck following this KNOB'S tips. Laugh
By:
bigted.
When: 04 Jun 12 08:47
OPPOSITION treasury spokesman Joe Hockey has conceded Australia's economy is in reasonable shape and endorsed Wayne Swan's commitment to returning the budget to surplus.

Speaking to an international audience on Bloomberg TV, Mr Hockey said Australia was vulnerable “like everyone else”, but its economic fundamentals were strong.

“Australia is in a better position than most other western nations,” he told Bloomberg's Asia Edge program.

“We have an unemployment rate of around 5 per cent, we have strong demand for our commodities and even though they probably won't get there we have a government that at least is promising to deliver a surplus budget.”

When the Reserve Bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points last month, Mr Hockey said it confirmed the “weakness in the Australian economy”. In his budget reply he said economic growth under Labor had been “very poor”.



Tony Abbott has also repeatedly declared the government's return to surplus commitment will never be met.

But Mr Hockey today appeared to entertain the possibility that it might.

“Unquestionably if the government does run a surplus then it does give the Reserve Bank more room to move,” he said.

Mr Hockey's comments differed in tone to those of his leader today, who warned of “very perilous economic times” ahead.

“The international economic storm clouds have rarely been darker and yet what does this government do?” he said.

“It chooses to damage Australia's competitiveness, to damage Australia's productivity, with the world's biggest carbon tax.”

Labor pilloried the Opposition Leader last year when he talked up the Australian economy while in London after consistently attacking the government's economic credentials.

“On the face of this comparative performance, Australia has serious bragging rights. Compared to most developed countries, our economic circumstances are enviable,” Mr Abbott said at the time.


Happy
By:
bigted.
When: 04 Jun 12 09:10
So Hockey has joined Abbott in delivering a different message regarding the Oz economy when he is O/S vs the one he does at home.

what are these ****s upto Confused
By:
AFL
When: 04 Jun 12 09:35
Can't bleat their  doom and gloom on the world stage. In countries where Murdoch hasn't got the Monopoly that protects them from ridicule for talking the economy down here. Devil
By:
megsy
When: 04 Jun 12 12:10
start saving your pennies

By:
bigted.
When: 04 Jun 12 13:02
[   This image is no longer available.   ]



Sad
By:
AFL
When: 06 Jun 12 08:22
Forget the doom and gloom: GDP powers up
by Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane
crikey.com.au

Ouch. There hasn’t been as inconvenient a piece of news for doomsayers since the economy failed to go into recession in 2009. Rumours of the slide in the Australian economy were exposed this morning by the best quarterly growth figures since Labor got into office: ABS figures show the economy grew by a solid 1.3% in the quarter, vastly faster than even the most optimistic of market forecasts of about 0.6%, and on an annual basis, by 4.3% in the 12 months to March, again much faster than 3.3% market forecasts.

Remember, this is historical data — it’s for the first three months to the end of March. It covers a period when retail sales grew better than many forecasts had expected, but came despite a surge in the current account deficit that cut GDP growth by 0.5% (it was a negative 0.3% in the December quarter). It also came despite the weakening in commodity prices (such as iron ore), the sharp fall in mining company profits in the quarter and weaker demand in some sectors of the domestic economy. The annual rate is well above the trend rate for the economy of 3.25%. Trend GDP growth in the year to March was 3.6%.

The ABS also revised its figures for all of 2011 from 2.3% to 2.5%. The December quarter figure of 0.4% was lifted to 0.6% growth and September was boosted to 1% from the revised 0.8% in the December accounts. The June quarter remained unchanged at 1.4%. The March, 2011 quarter which saw the impact of the Queensland floods, was changed to a negative 0.5%, compared to the previous 0.9% and the original minus 1.2%.

That is, while we were flagellating ourselves last year about the impact of the natural disasters — and yes they did have an impact — the economy was performing better than we thought. And as a consequence, suddenly our employment performance starts to make a lot more sense.

Not unexpectedly, the main industry contributors to GDP were mining (up 2.3%), financial and insurance services (up 1.7%) and professional, scientific and technical services (up 2.8%), each contributing 0.2 percentage points to the increase in GDP. But it wasn’t just the mining investment boom that helped the economy grow much faster in the quarter. Non-farm GDP rose by 1.2%, which points to more buoyant conditions in the domestic economy than many people realise.

Real domestic income edged up 0.2%, despite a 4.3% slide in the terms of trade in the quarter as commodity prices fell faster than the fall in the value of the Australian dollar. The fall in the March quarter in our terms of trade followed a revised 5.8% drop in the December quarter (4.7% originally). Because of the fall in our terms of trade, there was no growth in real net national disposable income over the quarter. That left it up 4% over the year to March, a bit under the 4.3% rise in GDP.

The ABS said that in seasonally adjusted terms the main contributors to expenditure on GDP were household final consumption expenditure (up a very solid 0.9 percentage points) and private gross fixed capital formation (0.8 percentage points. That’s the investment boom), with net exports detracting 0.5 percentage points. Home building, which we know is in a deep hole, also detracted 0.1% from GDP.

Household savings continued at their recent very high level. The ABS said the rate was 9.3% in the quarter, up from 9% in the December quarter, but down slightly from the 10.1% in the three months to last September.

Does the data mean the RBA was too pessimistic yesterday when it cut rates? No — apart from the historical nature of the data, remember the RBA cut rates because of concerns about the international situation and a benign inflation outlook. But the bank had forecast 2012 growth about 3% in its May Monetary Policy Statement. That will now be revised (unless Europe goes bad).

But the data will rule out any further rate cuts because the domestic economy continues to grow, despite its undoubted patchiness in sectors such as department store retailing and home building. The only rate cuts we will now get over the rest of this year will be if Greece or Spain produce a crisis in the eurozone, which crunches world markets in a repeat of late 2008 after Lehman Brothers collapsed. The GDP data makes forecasts by the likes of Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, for more rate cuts this year, look a little optimistic at best.

That means no more good news on rates for Treasurer Wayne Swan, but he’ll be delighted with today’s figures. They reinforce the government’s story about the economy and the rationale for, and the capacity to reach, a budget surplus, even if there remain concerns a softening international outlook will lead to falls in tax revenue next financial year.

As for Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, their response to yesterday’s RBA cut was to say that it reflected a soft economy caused by poor economic management. Swan might now be awfully tempted to invoke the old footy expression: look at the scoreboard, fellas. Australia’s annual growth pace of 4.3% compares with 1.9% in the US in the March quarter, zero to negative growth in the eurozone; a 0.1% contraction in the UK and 2.7% growth in Japan. China’s growth was 8.1% (down from 9.2% at the end of 2011) and India’s 5.3, down from just over 7% at the end of 2011.
By:
bigted.
When: 06 Jun 12 10:03
did Abbott say today our economy is going 'gangbusters' Confused. Laugh

Anyway have ression busting bet ..melb trot 7. Georgefrongaum... Will win Wink
By:
Proud To Punt
When: 06 Jun 12 10:44
GDP shows how strong our economy is. No ression and there will be no ression. Its there for all to see.
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