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The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
The coming Aussie Ression will send you broke.
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GOLD- 1573$
 safe haven gold? ffffffffssssssssssssssssss! Thanks for coming. the recesssion gathers strength. megsy will reply to you when I have more time.Will take me 2 hours to read your posts. IMAHO! |
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MrBen...good morning mate, dont bother responding, this isnt going anywhere, i will just keep an eye on my own investments and choose when to get out.
this thread has become never ending and im going to move on, whether your right or wrong, i hope people still make up their own minds. cheers  |
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ohh come on megsy. I thought we had a good thrust and parry going here.
btw- if you do "trade in shares" and you are long- you are a lamb being led to slaughter.But thats ok.Its my slaughter yard  I need guys like you to believe in the upside- who else will take the other side of the short? as a point of interest I am currently awaiting the right entry point for a massive short in the asx index. I have a hard time believing there wont be a pre chrissie bounce to come on "european hopes" . this will be one last chance to get out and I will short heavily the asx. Similarly gold- currently a bit oversold.I have closed my shorts as of this morning.Awaiting a bounce. If you want a stock to short then do so on RIO.Headed into the fifties and then the 40's on falling iron ore prices. Re china- I see they have revised their growth forcasts to 6%.Thats about break even for china who need 6% to maintain a balance with their pop growth and demographics. My view is it will in reality be far less, hence their economy goes into reverse whilst still showing positive data. Annecdotally chinese property professional are forecasting a 20% fall in chinese property prices. With a dearth of alternatives to invest in and the shanghai index at an 8 year low,, this will have further negative consequences on the golden dragon. |
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Newsflash-China begins talking down its economy.
Growth contraction being mentioned by govt sources. |
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http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/12369087/indonesia-beef-cuts-larger-than-expected/
The Australian cattle industry has been surprised by the extent of a cut in live exports to Indonesia. Imports of Australian cattle will be reduced by almost half to 280,000 head next year. The move is part of Indonesia's plan to move towards having a self-sufficient beef industry. The Cattle Council of Australia said the large cut to exports would have a significant effect on northern beef producers. |
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great read this thread,....interesting reading about the cattle quota cut, but its only a tit for tat scenario.
Indonesian officials say the decision is not linked to Australia's temporary ban on the live cattle trade earlier this year. But the Opposition's agriculture spokesman, John Cobb, says they are being polite and its definately linked to the live ban earlier this year."Given the Labor Gillard Government's treatment of Indonesia in recent times we shouldn't be surprised but it is concerning." Farmers will now open or boost trade to countries like china instead of concentrating on one country. there is a huge demand world wide for Australian beef so the fall out from this will not be for long. |
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fletcher jones- files for bankrupcy
billabong- profit warning, shares fall 40% jb hi fi- profit warning myer- profit warning - to close stores in vic and nsw vic govt to sack 3500 public servants asx off 90 points today rio falls to under 60$ who still thinks the economy is "strong"? IMAHO!!! get real- the economic tsuanami is in the horizon and coming fast. |
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give it a rest doom's day prophet
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statement of facts logroller.
you lefties must face facts |
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i'm ambidextrous
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Kmart post xmas sales up 8%
goes to show retailers like myer,billabong,fletcher jones etc mostly sell to middle,upper class shoppers, same as real estate, lower end of market prices have increased where as middle to top end have seen prices drop. people have become more smart with their money.its not that people havent got any cash like when a real recession occurs, its a population of savers today. |
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Mrben the European markets have hardly moved - another disappointing night for you?
one would of thought with our market down so bad today your dreams may have come true tonight but alas no. |
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your nothing but a scare monger Mr Ben!
You'll probably save money for anyone who heeds your advice but alas.. your a damned 'scare monger' |
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gatespeed-haahahahaahah
dontcha just love it! Especially when it is right! craigTS- I won't brag so much as to put a number to how much I've made shorting these markets in the last month.As a trader I just need movement.If you read one of my earlier posts you will see that I am/was expecting a bounce. rest assured craig- if you keep shorting ATM you will finish a llloooongggg way ahead. sooty- interesting stats.Your right , people still need to live and will buy their stuff somewhere.The k mart model must be high volume low margin.The retailers up against the wall are all higher margin businesses, as you point out. |
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sorry MrBen i was being mischievious I think
i actually am pretty much in agreement with your view and have my super in cash still i am a bit perplexed by how well the markets have held up particularly in Europe - (if it is doomsday why do they stay so relatively stable?) |
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MrBen are you a fan of Marc Faber or John Maudlin?
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overnight news
Dollar rises above parity on RBA minutes THE dollar rose after central bank's December board meeting minutes painted a relatively rosy glow for the domestic economy although traders remain worried about Europe and North Korea Retail spending up in November RETAIL spending rose in November, a new private sector survey shows, despite major retailers complaining of weakening demand Macmahon increases profit forecasts MINING focused engineer Macmahon Holdings has upgraded its full year profit forecast because of additional work. Read more European stock market opens higher Elders says performance has improved ELDERS says profits in the first two months of its fiscal year are on track with the Agribusiness's improvement plans. Read more More in reserve - rate cuts expected next year THE RESERVE bank has kept the door open for even more rate cuts in 2012 wheres this recession mrben? |
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Polically motivated thread. imo.
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This Ression thread is Polially motivated. imo
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US conditions seem to be bouncing back a bit as well - we might end up with just Europe in a hole until China steps in and bails them out that is
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the US are exposed/hold the euro debt ... and china are exposed/hold the US debt ... nothing is fixed yet sadly
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this is not too bad a read from george ... done a year ago but gives the biggest picture ... in relation to the debts now being countries ... not private (banks)
http://www.georgesoros.com/interviews-speeches/entry/the_sovereign_debt_problem/ |
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more from over night
US stocks surge, close up nearly 3 per cent US stocks rallied nearly three per cent today, boosted by US data showing a surge in new housing starts, encouraging news on Germany's economy, and reports of a Greek deal with private debt holders European shares, euro up sharply EUROPEAN stocks closed sharply higher after strong US and German economic data helped ease concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. Dollar above parity on US, German data THE dollar rose above parity to reach its highest level in a week on the back of strong economic data from Germany and the US Markets set to open up on overseas leads THE sharemarket is set to open higher after some strong US and German economic data helped ease concerns over the EU debt crisis |
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good news the week before xmas ... the timing is excellent
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The market is where it is because that's where it is.
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That spike was me guy's...Been out buying presee's is all
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As I pointed out, investing in resource stocks and advice to do so was reckless. Commodity stocks being pounded. Fortescue now 4.27 BHP down to 34.14, I would say headed under 30. RIO 60$, headed into the 40's.
GOLD- how low can it go?  Those following my advice to be short are making huge returns. Those who at least did not buy, saved a fortune. Those using historical statistics as a blueprint for the future- have done their balls  |
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MrBen - i did ask a question of you previously, maybe you didn't see it
Are you a reader of Marc Faber or John Maudlin? |
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sorry craig i missed it.
I am a fan of marc Faber yes.The other guy I dont know. you must remember that although MF is known as Dr Doom he is not perpetually bearish.Th best thing about him ,I feel is that he is well in front of the curve. Thats how you make the big $$$. EG- he is bullish gold and commodities but those are proving losers.he's bullish farming land. He's bearish stocks and USD.Hes not invincible but he makes money.Thats why i like to listen to him. Take him VS Hugh McHendry who is just perpetually bearish everything.You can make $$$ listening to Faber but its much more difficult following Mc Hendry. Cheers. |
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thanks MrBen - and with Marc Faber he at least makes the end of the financial world very entertaining
John Maudlin started a newsletter about 10 years ago which was on Gold Eagle - built it up to many millions of readers and was recently voted second most respected financial person behind Warren Buffett in the US - he has been very bearish for a long time - he wrote End game and coined the phrase "muddle through economy" and "new normal" i think? |
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one last reply to this thread, i promised myself not to tit for tat, but figures dont lie. Retail sales between august and november are way up compared to 2010 4.3% to 2011 7.6%
FEB /10…-01% MAR/10…2.6%...APR/10…0.4%...MAY/10…0.1%…JUN/10….0.7% JUL/10…-09%…AUG/10…0.6%...SEPT/10…0.6%...OCT/10…1.9% NOV/10…1.2%...DEC/10…1% FEB /11…-3.1% (QLD,NSW,VIC FLOODS ) MAR/11…0.2%...APR/11…1.1%...MAY/11…1.1%…JUN/11….0.8% JUL/11…1.7%…AUG/11…0.6%...SEPT/11…2.1%...OCT/11…3.7% NOV/11…1.8%...still waiting on decembers. |
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we had a global recession 2 or so years ago,
what has changed since. Greece has gone under. with other countries to follow. USA is broke and every country in hte western world through their savings at the Recession to avert a depression. The disease has not been cured , and we are out of antibiotics IMHO the end is neigh !!   |
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megsy megsy megsy- your head is still stuck firmly in the sand. retail SALES are meaningless.
 Any business can increase SALES is selling for close to cost or below cost.I guess you missed all the recent retailers profit warnings? Please pay closer attention.Big miners will issue profit warnings sooner or later in 2012.Watch the run for the exits then. As a btw, retail is just part of the economy, aussie house prices fell in 2011 4.4% nationally.The biggest being in QLD @ 8.8% Standby in 2012 for more housing price falls as buyers shut up shop and mortgagees lose their jobs. We have stepped thru the front door of recession and the hallway looks dark, gloomy and very long. |
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one of the biggest problems we have is people talking things down all the time - bloody bears
big night tonight, Italian bond sale |
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That's great, I need some new underpants, I hope they will ship to Australia.
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as i was typing "we have the Aussie Bonds sale" i saw there was a new post i just knew it was Joel
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agrees with wombleoz for a change, spot on
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the last real recession australia had was 1992. the stock market went to a all time low of 1358.50 points
4000 plus points as it stands now isnt what i call a recession. during the 2008-2008 world ecomony collapse, which will be no worst if it gets to that stage in 2012, the stock market went down as low as 3,250 points only. US is reboundng,stronger than they were in 2009. the AUD went down from 85 cents to just over 60 cents in 2008-2009 for a period of 6 months and built its way up to a strong AUD while the rest struggled and sits at 1.01 today, not a bad postion to be in if the dollar loses some value. laughs at the head in the sand response, FW !!....pffffffft |
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not really womble.That may affect stocks for a day or two but this thing is running on fundamentals.Which are fkd.
Pity is our economy is being dragged under, rather anything we specifically did. Problem is govt, both state and federal have become addicted to revenues provided one way or another by the mining boom.They will continue spending though revenue will fall.They will then borrow and we run the risk of becoming a euro style basket case. |