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Mrben
21 Nov 11 11:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 5,929 | Blogger: Mrben's blog
Its over guys, the good times for Aust are finished.  A few weeks back Iron ore prices dropped for the first time in 3 years. Now a chinese official has come out and stated on behalf of the govt that a world wide recession is upon us.
Add into this the USA which is basically bankrupt, and europe which is mostly bankrupt and the future looks bleak.

  Here in aust we have an economy totally dependant on the mining boom which will soon end. We have  govt who have so seriously over taxed and charged our economy that when revenue falls panic will set in.Labor will do what they always do and raise more taxes.That will be the final straw and the economy will collapse.

  Anyone in retail already knows the consumer has closed his purse.Within months you will see shops close and annecdotally its being said that 30% of shops will close by june next year.Who knows if that particular number is correct but you get the point.

  Get your travel in.The aussie dollars will be   below 90 cents soon and may go to 60 cents ultimatly.

  This recession will be savage because the much of the world will have an even worse time of it than us. Politicians- far from providing solutions will just make the pain worse.

if your holding stocks sell asap and buy back in down the track at heavily reduced prices.

baten down your particular hatchSad
Pause Switch to Standard View The coming Aussie Ression will send...
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Report Mrben May 16, 2012 7:12 AM BST
embrace the darkside joel- the truth lies with in.

its the recession- your already involved.Shocked
Report uncleee May 16, 2012 7:59 AM BST
its amazing how 7 months ago you could predict that greece wouldnt be able to form a government after its election! where do potential investors send the blank cheque?
Report Mrben May 18, 2012 9:39 AM BST
all ords down 110 points.CryCry

more than 110 billion lost in the latest downward phase.

resources stocks clobbered.

aussie dollar 98.5Cry

  dreadful economy now.
Report lazza May 18, 2012 9:51 AM BST
You nailed it MrB...again!
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 18, 2012 3:25 PM BST
A recession caused by the greed of people like MrBen,who in fact don't feel the recession because they make people who wouldn't know what a divined yield is, feel it for them.

Regards,
Niccolo
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 1:37 AM BST
Retravision southern{ tas, vic and southern nsw } goes into administration.

104 franchisees, their families and their employees all set to suffer.

A  recap of some of the events over the last months.

retravision-administration

sleep city- administration

colorado group-administration

WOW electronics- administration

borders- bankrupt

angus and robertson- bankrupt

jb hi fi- earnings downgraded

harvey norman- earnings downgraded

billabong- earnings downgraded

in the past year a total of 19 major bankruptcies or restructures.

515 major outlets closed in the last year

last week- St Hilliers building group- bankrupt

yesterday- Qantas to shed another 500 jobs immediatly and to close tullamarine maintenance permanently resulting in the loss of an additional 500 jobs directly and an unknown effect on suppliers.

more of the iceberg coming to the surface.

the recessionCry
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 22, 2012 2:06 AM BST
Are you saying the current government had a hand in this?
Report gatespeed May 22, 2012 2:21 AM BST
so we have all these retailers going out of business yet we still have low unemployment, where is everyone's money going?

TO THE BANKS!
Report lazza May 22, 2012 2:29 AM BST
The unemployment figures are not correct imo...They are manipulated.
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 2:41 AM BST
an excessive amount of disposable income is going to  every level of govt via fees, charges, taxes, fines.
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 22, 2012 2:44 AM BST
Do you have any links? Sounds like a interesting read.

Regards,
Niccolo
Report lazza May 22, 2012 2:44 AM BST
Are there any figures on what our Govts actually cost to run?
Report PCisaripoff May 22, 2012 3:39 AM BST
Mr Ben. I used to work for a company that used to sell to Retravison but we cut them off because they had many problems.
Bad payers, rumours of them going under
Most of the franchisees were old men that would not adopt new technologies. Competition had left them in the dust.

That was early 2007, & you're blaming the current government. Keep on buying the party line with no knowledge & it just shows you have little knowledge of business & the real world.

Until you work out that politics is full of people (on both sides) with no ability you will continue to post threads crying, whinging & playing one hell of a VICTIM. My advice to you is go & live somewhere else, we don't need your type in Australia
Report erogenous_zone May 22, 2012 3:58 AM BST
Report gatespeed May 22, 2012 4:08 AM BST
gov spending has of course has increased but its dwarfed by the the increased rate of our private debt (and service payments - translation bank profits)

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/keen_debt_gdp.php

you would never guess how the banks can keep lending to this magnitude....
Report erogenous_zone May 22, 2012 4:10 AM BST
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 4:33 AM BST
pcrippoffLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughCrazy

what a laughable post. your more interested in attacking me than discussing the recession.

retravisison- early 2007- , incase you missed it- this  2012.!!!
Report PCisaripoff May 22, 2012 4:50 AM BST
That's right sunshine. Liberal govt had been in power when the company was going bust. Take the blinkers off beautiful
Report Thebas May 22, 2012 5:34 AM BST
spot on gatespeed ... the banks have it all ... and they pray to a higher banking god .. above them on the global level

banks need to write a loan ...

that loan debt ... can then be parlayed x 10 times into another loan

that is the arrangement they formulated with govts

and NO CONTROLS ... witness the usa and subprimes

they need to write a loan and can then write 10 more on the back of the first loan ... which is their right lol
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 22, 2012 5:41 AM BST
Thebas,

Did you read the article where Russia is saying American is abusing human rights towards their protesters?


Time for China and Russia intervention?? Lol

Regards,
Niccolo
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 5:59 AM BST
niccollo and pcrippoff- plz post your tripe on the polital thread, - not here.
Report Thebas May 22, 2012 6:00 AM BST
world is on a precipice niccolo ... the money will rule ... which countries are owned ... will behave .. the rouge states will at some stage bring things to a head
Report Thebas May 22, 2012 6:00 AM BST
sorry ben .. lol ... yes either way ... the recesh is closing in
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 22, 2012 6:19 AM BST
Recession?

We're 7% Bigger then we are before the GFC.
We have unlimited pipe coming in for money investments.
We just loaned IMF billions
Budget Surplus
4.9% Unemployment
Growing in trend
More jobs created under this Government then any other government.
Report uncleee May 22, 2012 6:32 AM BST
thebas, securitisation allows the hedging of risk, your referring mainly to speculating in cds (glodman sachs vs AIG)

but what do you expect, investment banks pay young graduates up to double all other sectors bar mining, obviously they will make money
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 6:39 AM BST
interestingly, all figures released by govt  paint a much rosier picture than events in the real world indicate.

wayne swann has pencilled in 3% growth for the budget.IMAHO.Most optimistic  figure by non govt sources is 2.2%

this brings us to the reserve bank which relies on govt data.This is why the RB is so far behind the curve. Interest rates are at least 50 basis points higher than they should be.

this as all splitting hairs a  bit though.

China is the elephant on our room. It lands hard, australia will be squashed.That, coupled with a world wide down turn and i doubt that any govt can stop or reduce the effects.
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 22, 2012 6:57 AM BST
What if the Liberals had got their way and our stimulus package was not given to the Australian people.

Our Economy would have collapsed years ago.
Report AFL May 22, 2012 7:11 AM BST
Graphs and charts not included due to formatting.

article can be found at c rikey.com.au


Checking the docket on how expensive it is to do business in Oz
by Bernard Keane
Friday, 4 May 2012
Update below

Australia is a high-cost place to do business, apparently.

I know because I read it in the papers regularly. Tom Albanese, of Rio Tinto, complained this week about the high cost of doing business in Australia. BG Group saying the cost of its Gladstone coal-seam gas project have blown out. The Business Council cited high costs back in April. One of those absurd “business roundtables” the AFR conducts, back in February, was given over to business executives lamenting “we’re becoming a high-cost, low-productivity nation”.

Usually the fault is laid at the blame of the government. Labor was “anti-business”, complained Graham Bradley in February, mainly because of the Fair Work Act. But the carbon tax cops criticism too. Today the head of the AIG complained that the carbon tax was creating uncertainty because, unlike the GST, businesses couldn’t calculate its impacts.

So let’s look at the evidence.

Has the Fair Work Act increased costs for business? Let’s look at the ABS’s unit labour cost index. When the index is above 100, wage pressures are assumed to exist. How has it fared under this government?

So, this is pretty much the only government in 30 years to eliminate wage pressures for business. The only area where the government has failed to curb wage pressures has been in executive remuneration, which continues to relentlessly increase at rates well ahead of inflation.

How about industrial disputes? Let’s have a look at the long-term trend. This is the number of days lost to industrial disputes per thousand employees. There was a much-vaunted spike in disputes in the September quarter last year, mostly driven by aggressive employers, but otherwise the level of disputes remains at historic lows.

What about the business cost that is in the direct control of government, tax? Last year’s budget papers tell us the ratio between company tax to corporate gross operating surplus:

That is, outside mining, the overall tax take from business has fallen as a proportion of gross operating surplus. Plus, there’s the small matter of the corporate tax cut the government wants to introduce, which the Coalition and the Greens are opposing. In fact, this is a low-taxing government compared to its predecessor. Remember the Coalition’s rhetoric about being the party of small government, then have a look at tax revenue as a proportion of GDP and figure out which side of politics taxes less:

What else could the government be doing? Well it could avoid stimulating the rest of the economy so companies in the resources sector such as BG Group that need construction workers and material aren’t competing against the rest of the economy. And, lo and behold, the government is engaged in a massive fiscal contraction even before we get to the issue of a budget surplus for 2012-13.

What about the carbon price? Is that really a major source of uncertainty for business? Innex Willox of the AI Group laments that the impact of the carbon price is harder to calculate than the GST. But the carbon price impact will be small compared to that of the GST. Work done by the CSIRO and AECOM for the Climate Institute shows the price impact from the carbon price will be 0.6%, barely above the impact of Cyclone Yasi last year (0.5%), less than Cyclone Larry (0.8%) and less than a quarter of the impact of the GST (2.5%).  Treasury’s assessment is that the impact will be 0.7%.

That’s the impact on consumers, not businesses, but it gives a clear idea of the scale of impact compared to the GST that Willox believes was so much easier.

The historical data suggests that, when it comes to labour and tax costs, the claim that Australia is becoming more expensive is dead wrong. In fact, it’s the reason why the wage share of national income is currently only just above its historic low of 52%, while the profit share is higher than at any time before 2008. And that’s why capital expenditure is at record levels?—?nearly 30% of GDP. The business decisions of investors contradicts the claim that we’re driving business away with high costs.

The issue is not so much whether Australian is becoming a more expensive place to do business, as whether Australian business will ever be satisfied or whether it will continue to push for ever more wage cuts and corporate tax cuts at the expense of the rest of us.

Update: The ACTU’s Matt Cowgill says I’ve misused unit labor costs - see comment 2. For a detailed treatment of the issue (esp. minimum wages) see pp.44-54 of the ACTU minimum wage submission linked to above (and here).
Report Mrben May 22, 2012 8:44 AM BST
interesting enuff  AFL

but relevance to recession?ConfusedConfusedConfused
Report AFL May 22, 2012 8:53 AM BST
This is a political thread. Wink
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 1:35 AM BST
Myer downgrades earnings- again.Begs the question- will they survive?

Fitch downgrades Japan from AAA to AA+

japan is our 2nd biggest resources customer.

aussie dollar smashed overnight to 97.66, a fresh 6 month low

norsk hydro consider closing its kurri kurri plant, threatening 350 jobs plus an unknown effect on suppliers.

the recessionCry
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 23, 2012 1:48 AM BST
Don't China have fitch rating of AA?

Need to take a leaf from Hitlers and Lincolns economic theories instead of idiots like MrBen.

What Recession?

Tell me MrBen,How would the Governments cut in public spending help us get though the "recession" like the Liberals intend to do.

Regards,
Niccolo
Report AFL May 23, 2012 4:25 AM BST
OECD names Australia among growth leaders
By Europe correspondent Rachael Brown and staff

Updated May 23, 2012 10:33:24
Edited transcript

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the Australian economy is expected to grow at a faster rate than most other advanced economies in 2012 and 2013.

The group's half-yearly report predicts that Australia's economy will grow at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, and welcomes the Federal Government's commitment to delivering a budget surplus.


The OECD says Australia's strong mining sector will bolster economic growth in the next few years.

But it cautions that other sectors of the economy suffering due to the high dollar will have to raise productivity, which could affect the labour market.

The organisation has endorsed the Government's plan to boost its cash reserves while the economy is strong and demand for resource exports is still high, and says lowering interest rates will help offset any negative impact of budget tightening.

In the budget handed down earlier this month, the Federal Government forecast growth of about 3.25 per cent slowing to 3 per cent.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan says the report confirms yet again that Australia is the stand-out performer on the global stage.

"It's consistent with the fact that we have got solid growth, low unemployment, contained inflation, strong public finances and a record pipeline of business investment in resources," he said.

"I think it is good news. I mean, Australia has a triple-A credit rating from the three major credit rating agencies."


First posted May 23, 2012 06:47:38

Hang on a minute....Mrben says we are in a recession.

Laugh
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 4:56 AM BST
problem with the oecd estimations is that they have been too optimistic.Growth has continually undershot their estimates.

as I stated earlier- there seems to be a disconnect from govt figures  and real world events.

china just release its govt estimates for growth @ 8.25%- a laughable number by any measure.

those who study these kinds of numbers, non govt analyists, predict MAYBE , big MAYBE 6%, china needs 6% to break even with its population growth.

key here is- dont JUST rely on "official " figures. They  are put out by people who work for politicians, not even you would assert that politicians are honest.
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 5:12 AM BST
aussie dollar down from 1.08 to 97.52

all ords drops circa 400 points in the last 6 weeks

both signs of a strong economy- IMAHO!!!!

fffffffffffffffffffffssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 5:16 AM BST
around 120 billion fall in the value of stocks in a month.

plenty of superannuation accounts shrinking by the day.

  which company is the next to go out the back door? Happening every week.

"The organisation has endorsed the Government's plan to boost its cash reserves while the economy is strong and demand for resource exports is still high "

tell that to those who paid 75$ for rio tinto, 6$ for fortescue and 39$ for BHP  a few months agoCry

those who hold resource stocks are crying.SadSadSadSadSad
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 5:17 AM BST
my posts relate to real world, certifiable facts.

not some fantasies of  various govt agencies that have an agenda to push.Angry
Report Thebas May 23, 2012 5:33 AM BST
it would appear australia ... on the back of post gfc survival and oecd etc talk ups ... were some sort of pseudo safe-haven for external overseas investors to place their liquidity for a while ... in our locla stocks & cash etc

once they pull out (which seems to be happening) ... and take their money elsewhere ... well fk me it wont be pretty here

now if you knew where the money was going .. and followed that to another part-time safe haven .. then you might make a quid or least keep up

and the carbon crunch on businesses and therefore eventually citizens hasn't even begun yet  Sad
Report Mrben May 23, 2012 5:38 AM BST
exactly BAS, it won't be pretty. Downright bone uguly I say.

the carbon tax will really hurt the economy.

the iceberg of economic destruction is barely in focus, but the future devastion remains .

the recessionCry
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 23, 2012 6:17 AM BST
Sorry bas?

But how is the CT going to hurt this economy when people are getting adequately compensated?? The CT will also increase competition amongst the big and small businesses.

We still have a pipeline with investment money still pouring in.
Small business getting tax cuts WHICH the Liberals are were opposed too.

But I understand if you don't want everyday Australian's to prosper Bas because I know MrBen does not.

Keep voting Liberal.

Regards,
Niccolo
Report Thebas May 23, 2012 6:43 AM BST
sorry nic .. there's a whole thread on the carbon tax devoted to answering your genuine but innocent questions ...

i do want aussies to prosper yes ... cow-toeing to a UN/UE/IPCC agenda ... would not serve this purpose

you can strt a read here ... just a suggestion .. to where it all began .. the Big R global bankers won sadly .. cest la vie

this is from the
look for the heading "A Currency Tax" ...  Sad

http://www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/afrec/vol15no4/154finan.htm
Report Thebas May 23, 2012 6:44 AM BST
sorry
... this is from the  .... UN WEBSITE ITSELF
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli May 23, 2012 6:55 AM BST
I'll have to read that later its a long article.

The only concern I have about UN/Nato is how America are sending more and more troops to us. They occupy just about every country surrounding Russia now they are surrounding China..Scary.
Report Thebas May 23, 2012 7:01 AM BST
cheers nic

not the whole article ... just the paragraph headed "A Currency Tax"

the global bankers somehow managed to change the mind of the UN ffs

they flipped a coin .. and to redistribute the wealth they settled on a fossil fuel tax

if they told us all the truth ... well who can say what our opinion might be

but they wrapped it like a lolly in the Global Warming sceenario .. that they changed later to the inocuous Climate Change

all to sell a global tax .. that SHOULD have been on the bankers and their currency transactions

still its a long story ... and the Big R global bankers won .. cest la vie

everyone for themselves now it seems ...
Report GoVoGo May 23, 2012 7:20 AM BST
Thebas wrote:
"it would appear australia ... on the back of post gfc survival and oecd etc talk ups ... were some sort of pseudo safe-haven for external overseas investors to place their liquidity for a while ... in our locla stocks & cash etc

once they pull out (which seems to be happening) ... and take their money elsewhere ... well fk me it wont be pretty here"

Not quite.  Overseas investors have been flooding into the Australian bond market over the past few months, mainly as our bond yields were significantly higher than that of other 'safe, AAA' countries.  Oz 5%, US 2.7% etc.  Ironically, it's the prospect of our economy slowing that's caused the rush: with a growing prospect of lower official RBA rates in Australia, the higher bond yields weren't going to last.  Hurry Hurry!

Our 10 year bond rate has fallen significantly in the past two months, and significantly more so than US bonds.  Overseas buyers are the big movers here.

So yes, there's an increased perception of the Australian economy slowing significantly, but there's no lack of confidence in the country as any sort of credit risk.  Offshore investors now own over 83% of our government bonds! 

The fall in the $A and the sharemarket is in line with a risk aversion tone across global markets in the past fortnight.

I stand by my call that this country is going to visit some exceedingly hard times in the next two years.
Report AFL May 23, 2012 7:37 AM BST
Thebas posted...but they wrapped it like a lolly in the Global Warming sceenario .. that they changed later to the inocuous Climate Change all to sell a global tax.

The skeptic argument...

They changed the name from global warming to climate change


What the science says...


There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'". In reality, the two terms mean different things, have both been used for decades, and the only individual to have specifically advocated changing the name in this fashion is a global warming 'skeptic'.

Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical phenomena.  As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature, which you can see here:

'Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average global temperature.  For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather, etc.  These projections of future global precipitation changes from the 2007 IPCC report are an example of climate change:

Thus while the physical phenomena are causally related, they are not the same thing.  Human greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming, which in turn is causing climate change.  However, because the terms are causally related, they are often used interchangeably in normal daily communications.
Both Terms Have Long Been Used

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. 

However, this is simply untrue.  For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C).  Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'.  The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today).  The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'.  There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago.  There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.

In fact, according to Google Books, the usage of both terms in books published in the United States has increased at similar rates over the past 40 years:

And a Google Scholar search reveals that the term 'climate change' was in use before the term 'global warming', and has always been the more commonly-used term in scientific literature:

No Reason to Change the Term

Those who perpetuate the "they changed the name" myth generally suggest two reasons for the supposed terminology change.  Either because (i) the planet supposedly stopped warming, and thus the term 'global warming' is no longer accurate, or (ii) the term 'climate change' is more frightening.

The first premise is demonstrably wrong, as the first figure above shows the planet is still warming, and is still accumulating heat.  Quite simply, global warming has not stopped.

The second premise is also wrong, as demonstrated by perhaps the only individual to actually advocate changing the term from 'global warming' to 'climate change', Republican political strategist Frank Luntz in a controversial memo advising conservative politicians on communicating about the environment:

    It’s time for us to start talking about “climate change” instead of global warming and “conservation” instead of preservation.

    “Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming”. As one focus group participant noted, climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.

Summary

So to sum up, although the terms are used interchangeably because they are causally related, 'global warming' and 'climate change' refer to different physical phenomena. 

The term 'climate change' has been used frequently in the scientific literature for many decades, and the usage of both terms has increased over the past 40 years. 

Moreover, since the planet continues to warm, there is no reason to change the terminology.  Perhaps the only individual to advocate the change was Frank Luntz, a Republican political strategist and global warming skeptic, who used focus group results to determine that the term 'climate change' is less frightening to the general public than 'global warming'.

There is simply no factual basis whatsoever to the myth "they changed the name from global warming to climate change".

Last updated on 6 January 2011 by dana1981.


Wink
Report Thebas May 23, 2012 7:52 AM BST
GoVoGo wrote
I stand by my call that this country is going to visit some exceedingly hard times in the next two years.

... cheers vo appears that way for sure

afl just a pure coincidence no doubt that the UN chose fossil fuel tax rather then currency tax to fund the money they need for the 3rd world predominantly africa and more specifically sub-saharan africa

and an even greater coincidence that countries such as australia have committed 10% of any raised revenue from a fossil fuel tax for the UN program of wealth redistribution

yeah ... cant buy it sorry Laugh
Report Mrben May 29, 2012 4:05 AM BST
another week another bankruptcy.

hastie engineering-gone. 2700 stood down.  2000 expected to lose their jobs.

the recesssion spreads to engineering.Cry




benefits of the mining boom being wastedCry

.







Think tank claims Australia has wasted billions of dollar in proceeds of the mining boom. Picture: File



AUSTRALIA has wasted the proceeds of the mining boom estimated at more than $200 billion, according to think tank Per Capita.

In a report released yesterday, Per Capita said the Howard and Rudd governments used about half the windfall - $105 billion - to shore up the Commonwealth's fiscal position.

It estimated that the pre-GFC phase of the mining boom had delivered at least $180 billion to the economy.

"We paid off $36 billion of sovereign debt and put $69 billion into long-term savings funds. This was the responsible course of action," it said.

"But the remaining $75 billion represents a big missed opportunity. The Howard Government gave at least $25 billion away in tax cuts and concessions.

"It used another $50 billion on inflated spending programs and various cash handouts, from the baby bonus to the First Home Owners' Grants.

"We missed the opportunity to invest $75 billion in long-term productive assets


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/per-capita-report-claims-australia-has-wasted-mining-boom-proceeds-estimated-at-200-billion/story-fnda1bsz-1226370915200#ixzz1wDxMQpc0

despite all these disasters, no doubt the next set of govt figures will show " growth" and XXXXXXX  "jobs created" IMAHO!!!

the recessionCry
Report Mrben May 30, 2012 10:48 PM BST
dow jones down 160 overnight.

ASX set to fall yet again, this week sees  the 200 billion mark passed that has been wiped of aussie superannuation accounts.

the recession Cry
Report AFL May 30, 2012 11:22 PM BST
The only recession going on is inside your head.
Report Thebas May 31, 2012 1:09 AM BST
http://au.news.yahoo.com/queensland/a/-/latest/13824161/gillard-faces-down-mining-bosses/


"And here's the rub: you don't own the minerals; they own it and they deserve their share," she added.

"Governments only sell you the right to mine the resource - a resource we hold in trust for a sovereign people."

.......  she has clearly gone mad hasn't she lol  Silly



**************


followed today by ....

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bhp-billiton-freezes-major-project-074339651.html


"It's effectively sending out the sort of message to the market that hey, at the end of the day, we can turn supply on and off," Mr Wendt said.

"And if we don't see a strong pricing environment for our commodities where we can generate a reasonable margin, then we'll leave the stuff in the ground." Platypus Asset Management portfolio manager Prasad Patkar says rising costs are also deterring expansion.


...........  agreat time for our govt ... well julia .. to be having an arm wrestle with the holders of our econimc boom ... ffs Cry
Report Mrben May 31, 2012 1:29 AM BST
aussie market down 60 points.

AUD hits 96.76!  yikes!!!!

the recession  begins to strip away  aussie lifestyle and accumulated wealth.

more proof

Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate, global property analyst Jordan Wirsz says
Save this story to read later

    By Sonja Koremans
    news.com.au
    January 20, 2012 4:16PM

    Predictions of a property crash
    "Prices could fall more than 60 per cent"
    Local experts disagree with the naysayers

ALSO

    Just parking the car costs us $300m

39 comments
0
real estate

US real estate analyst Jordan Wirsz believes Australia is heading towards a property bloodbath as the global economic downturn spreads. Picture: File

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End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to be tested amid predictions prices will plummet by as much as 60 per cent, with capital cities hardest hit.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/bloodbath-to-hit-australian-real-estate-property-analyst-jordan-wirsz-says/story-e6frfmd0-1226248472949#ixzz1wP0yh9um

and this

As the Australian housing bubble bursts, prices could fall a lot further than people expect: Steve Keen

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/as-the-australian-housing-bubble-bursts-prices-could-fall-a-lot-further-than-people-expect-steve-keen/2012053054914

want more?Cry

House prices continue to fall

Updated May 18, 2012 00:22:13

This week's RP Data national house price index is down 1.7 per cent, with Melbourne especially on the cusp of a crisis with an oversupply of houses and a slow economy.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/house-prices-continue-to-fall/4018416


anyone who believes the economy is not in recession is about as smart as AFLTongue Out

the recessionCryCry
Report Mrben May 31, 2012 7:11 AM BST
mining projects getting shelved before the mining tax and carbon tax come in

BHP Billiton freezes major project approvals
ABCBy business reporter Michael Janda | ABC – 22 hours ago

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The world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, says it is freezing all board-level major project approvals for six months.

The statement by BHP Billiton's chief executive Marius Kloppers reinforces a warning earlier this month by the miner's chairman Jacques Nasser that the company would scale back its $80 billion investment plans.

The message was delivered directly to its major customer, China, through a major Chinese news agency.

"You should not expect in the next six months any new major approval of projects," he told Caixin Media.

"The economics of some of these projects is changed.

I think for the next two years, 18 months perhaps, will we just wait and see how things develop." The company says his comments are not a change of policy, but BHP Billiton had previously planned to make a decision on major expansions such as South Australia's Olympic Dam mine by the middle of this year.

A board decision on that expansion must be made by December 15, otherwise the South Australian Government's approval expires and BHP will have to head back to the negotiating table.

South Australia's Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis says the deadline for approval is non-negotiable.

"BHP Billiton knew at the time of the signing of the indenture that the approvals came with a time limit," Mr Koutsantonis told the ABC in a statement.

"To date, I have not received any request for an extension and we are proceeding in the expectation that the board will meet and approve this project before the end of this year." While Mr Kloppers' self-imposed six-month moratorium on expansion decisions ends just before the December deadline, Minelife 's senior resource analyst Gavin Wendt says the Olympic Dam expansion is in doubt.

"It's still 50-50.

I've had my doubts, it's taken a long time for the [feasibility] study to be completed," Mr Wendt said.

"If BHP was really dead keen on getting the project into production I think the whole process could have been expedited.

"I don't think BHP really wants to be flooding the market over the next five years or so with new supply [of copper, gold and uranium]." He says that is because the future of many commodity prices is too uncertain to guarantee a good return.

"It's effectively sending out the sort of message to the market that hey, at the end of the day, we can turn supply on and off," Mr Wendt said.

"And if we don't see a strong pricing environment for our commodities where we can generate a reasonable margin, then we'll leave the stuff in the ground." Platypus Asset Management portfolio manager Prasad Patkar says rising costs are also deterring expansion.

"The pressure on costs has become so intense for the large mining projects and it comes at a time when commodity prices are starting to flatten at best and coming back a bit," Mr Wendt explained.

That has made boards unwilling to commit to new projects until the economic situation becomes more clear.

Mr Patkar says a lack of skilled labour is largely to blame for the cost issues.

"A lot of projects are being sanctioned around the world and around Australia at a time when the supply of skilled labour just can't catch up in the short term," he said.

Skilled labour shortages are a problem for miners around the world, but Paul Gray, the principal iron ore analyst for global resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Radio National Breakfast that cost increases have been especially large in Australia.

"In the mining sector they [wages] roughly doubled since 2005.

Australian wage rates in the mining sector are amongst the highest in the world now," he said.

However, while costs are rising across the mining sector, the quality of Australia's iron ore deposits means that it still remains among the lowest cost producers.

"Operating costs may be somewhere around $40 to $50 a tonne, and for China small scale, high cost private mines now has operating costs above $120 a tonne," Mr Gray explained.

He says that cost differential will limit iron ore price declines, as unprofitable Chinese mines halt production when prices fall too low.

"That should provide some underlying support at levels pretty close to where we are today - it may be $10 or so below current levels," he added.

Mr Patkar says that makes BHP's iron ore plans, such as an expansion of Port Headland's harbour, the least likely to be canned.

"I think the BHP iron ore expansion is the safest of the three large projects that they are considering," he concluded.

Mr Wendt says the long-term outlook for many commodities is good, and BHP Billiton has reacted to short-term investor concerns that it is spending too much on expanding production.

"They have been criticised in some aspects of the market, but particularly by one of their major shareholders BlackRock, for spending too much money on long-term development projects," he observed.

"They seem to be reacting to the negative near-term sentiment that's around in the financial markets at the present time."

the recessionCryCry

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bhp-billiton-freezes-major-project-074339651.html
Report Niccolo_Machiavelli June 1, 2012 6:47 AM BST
MrBen,
Could you tell me another time when the Australian dollar was this strong?
Can you tell me the last time capital expenditure was in 170billions?

You cant?? Oh. But if we are facing a recession why do people keep investing here?????

You make no sense.

Regards,
Niccolo
Report Mrben June 4, 2012 2:31 AM BST
stocks hit a 9 month lowCry

16 billion wiped of the value of stocks this morningCry

aussie dollar at 8 months low and plummetingCry

house prices continue to fallCry

the recession begins to accelerate.

the recessionCryCryCry
Report lazza June 4, 2012 2:47 AM BST
Thx for the update MrB...I heard Friday was bad in the U.S ..was that right... about jobs or something?
Report Mrben June 4, 2012 2:52 AM BST
yes lazza, US jobs were 69,000 created against 133,000 predicted and at a 9 month low. Growth in US is stalling as  QE2 dollars have ended. US remain the worlds bigggest economy.
  If it stalls , on top of china deliberatly slowing and the europe disaster, world economies must fall more.

We are not insulated and will fall particularly hard given the mix of poor  govt policy, unbalanced economy ( 2 speed), high dependance on china, high taxes,  overpriced property, etc etc.
Report Mrben June 4, 2012 2:55 AM BST
just released

australian Q1 profits down 8.3%

thats confirmation of the recession.

no wonder jobs are being lost

the recessionCryCry
Report bigted. June 4, 2012 3:09 AM BST



Grin mug
Report lazza June 4, 2012 3:12 AM BST
What's B.H.P @ MrB ..wasn't someone on here saying we should buy?..I can;t remember what price it was at the time do you?.... small comparison for us.
Report Proud To Punt June 4, 2012 3:15 AM BST
probably me Lazza.......I love the Big Australian and been buying them for years. Some at crazy prices both on the high and low end. It all balances out nicely over time and dividends are a nice cherry as well. But today, tommorrow and the next.....then repeat these steps.
Report lazza June 4, 2012 3:23 AM BST
So how have the B.H.P stocks been lately P2p?
Report Proud To Punt June 4, 2012 3:34 AM BST
depends on which way you look at it. On paper, my value is heading south of late........however I can buy more shares for my dollar of late.........the shares I have today are worth so much more than the ones I bought in the early 90's..........then again the ones I bought at the height of the ASX are well below what I paid..........glass half empty/full scenario IMO
Report lazza June 4, 2012 3:45 AM BST
Do you remember what they were in Nov when this thread started ..they would have dropped since then you'd think?..
Report Proud To Punt June 4, 2012 3:51 AM BST
yes, they would be down since last November. I recall them trading between $33ish and $38ish for a while late last year.
Report Mrben June 4, 2012 4:09 AM BST
BHP is 31.09 atm.

what P2P is referring to is dollar cost averaging. Its a legitimate strategy for those with a long time horizon.

I'm a daytrader predominantly few days at the most. I have been a bid seller of bhp, rio and in particular fortescue.

My view is that resources stocks have a long way to fall yet.

BHP has a low of 20.00 on nov 1 2008, plenty of room to fall still.
Report AFL June 4, 2012 7:41 AM BST
Mrben 17 May 12 22:16


I remember when google listed at 120$.The same  mouthpieces then were saying "its too expensive". It did nothing but go up.

I think facebook will be similar.

Don't underestimate the savvy of the guys running these companies.You  dont get a billion users by accident.they will find a way to make it pay.

The leverage with all those users is enormous one they  find the formula.

For example- what's to stop them listing google ads on each FB page, linked to the persons interests? Google already has this software.

Down the right hand side an unobtrusive say 10/15% of the page. On General motors page for eg , google ads for dealers or car selling sites. Too easy.

facebook is a buy buy buy for investors.

...............................................

Mrben 18 May 12 09:30


your  "math" melly exposes your for the retard you are.

no  doubt when facebook hits 100$ you  will claim its ' for the wrong reasons"

what was the revenue for google when it listed? Did it stay the same?

You retard.

your posts are so bizzarre they are no longer worth reading except  for entertainment.

you have demonstrated over and over how incredibly  simplistic you are.

your analysis of FB is high school standard.

your gold graph extraoplation if maybe  primary school .

I have no doubt you are the dumbest person in the history of financial forums.

facebook will hit 100$ no problems.For the same reasons AAPL and google went from strength to strength.

something a retard simpleton like you melly will never understand or accept.

.....................................................


Mrben 18 May 12 14:26


7 minutes to  the listing.

Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook

LoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLoveLove


...............................................
Mrben 18 May 12 14:41


the smile on zuckerberg's face will be as big as the frown on mellysWhoops


Go facebook
Go facebook

.....................................................



















Mrben 23 May 12 01:00

I got facebook wrong.Cry

get over it melly.

.................................................................



Whoops
Report PCisaripoff June 4, 2012 7:46 AM BST
What is a RESSION?
Report AFL June 4, 2012 8:03 AM BST
Good luck following this KNOB'S tips. Laugh
Report bigted. June 4, 2012 8:47 AM BST
OPPOSITION treasury spokesman Joe Hockey has conceded Australia's economy is in reasonable shape and endorsed Wayne Swan's commitment to returning the budget to surplus.

Speaking to an international audience on Bloomberg TV, Mr Hockey said Australia was vulnerable “like everyone else”, but its economic fundamentals were strong.

“Australia is in a better position than most other western nations,” he told Bloomberg's Asia Edge program.

“We have an unemployment rate of around 5 per cent, we have strong demand for our commodities and even though they probably won't get there we have a government that at least is promising to deliver a surplus budget.”

When the Reserve Bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points last month, Mr Hockey said it confirmed the “weakness in the Australian economy”. In his budget reply he said economic growth under Labor had been “very poor”.



Tony Abbott has also repeatedly declared the government's return to surplus commitment will never be met.

But Mr Hockey today appeared to entertain the possibility that it might.

“Unquestionably if the government does run a surplus then it does give the Reserve Bank more room to move,” he said.

Mr Hockey's comments differed in tone to those of his leader today, who warned of “very perilous economic times” ahead.

“The international economic storm clouds have rarely been darker and yet what does this government do?” he said.

“It chooses to damage Australia's competitiveness, to damage Australia's productivity, with the world's biggest carbon tax.”

Labor pilloried the Opposition Leader last year when he talked up the Australian economy while in London after consistently attacking the government's economic credentials.

“On the face of this comparative performance, Australia has serious bragging rights. Compared to most developed countries, our economic circumstances are enviable,” Mr Abbott said at the time.


Happy
Report bigted. June 4, 2012 9:10 AM BST
So Hockey has joined Abbott in delivering a different message regarding the Oz economy when he is O/S vs the one he does at home.

what are these ****s upto Confused
Report AFL June 4, 2012 9:35 AM BST
Can't bleat their  doom and gloom on the world stage. In countries where Murdoch hasn't got the Monopoly that protects them from ridicule for talking the economy down here. Devil
Report megsy June 4, 2012 12:10 PM BST
start saving your pennies

Report bigted. June 4, 2012 1:02 PM BST




Sad
Report AFL June 6, 2012 8:22 AM BST
Forget the doom and gloom: GDP powers up
by Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane
crikey.com.au

Ouch. There hasn’t been as inconvenient a piece of news for doomsayers since the economy failed to go into recession in 2009. Rumours of the slide in the Australian economy were exposed this morning by the best quarterly growth figures since Labor got into office: ABS figures show the economy grew by a solid 1.3% in the quarter, vastly faster than even the most optimistic of market forecasts of about 0.6%, and on an annual basis, by 4.3% in the 12 months to March, again much faster than 3.3% market forecasts.

Remember, this is historical data — it’s for the first three months to the end of March. It covers a period when retail sales grew better than many forecasts had expected, but came despite a surge in the current account deficit that cut GDP growth by 0.5% (it was a negative 0.3% in the December quarter). It also came despite the weakening in commodity prices (such as iron ore), the sharp fall in mining company profits in the quarter and weaker demand in some sectors of the domestic economy. The annual rate is well above the trend rate for the economy of 3.25%. Trend GDP growth in the year to March was 3.6%.

The ABS also revised its figures for all of 2011 from 2.3% to 2.5%. The December quarter figure of 0.4% was lifted to 0.6% growth and September was boosted to 1% from the revised 0.8% in the December accounts. The June quarter remained unchanged at 1.4%. The March, 2011 quarter which saw the impact of the Queensland floods, was changed to a negative 0.5%, compared to the previous 0.9% and the original minus 1.2%.

That is, while we were flagellating ourselves last year about the impact of the natural disasters — and yes they did have an impact — the economy was performing better than we thought. And as a consequence, suddenly our employment performance starts to make a lot more sense.

Not unexpectedly, the main industry contributors to GDP were mining (up 2.3%), financial and insurance services (up 1.7%) and professional, scientific and technical services (up 2.8%), each contributing 0.2 percentage points to the increase in GDP. But it wasn’t just the mining investment boom that helped the economy grow much faster in the quarter. Non-farm GDP rose by 1.2%, which points to more buoyant conditions in the domestic economy than many people realise.

Real domestic income edged up 0.2%, despite a 4.3% slide in the terms of trade in the quarter as commodity prices fell faster than the fall in the value of the Australian dollar. The fall in the March quarter in our terms of trade followed a revised 5.8% drop in the December quarter (4.7% originally). Because of the fall in our terms of trade, there was no growth in real net national disposable income over the quarter. That left it up 4% over the year to March, a bit under the 4.3% rise in GDP.

The ABS said that in seasonally adjusted terms the main contributors to expenditure on GDP were household final consumption expenditure (up a very solid 0.9 percentage points) and private gross fixed capital formation (0.8 percentage points. That’s the investment boom), with net exports detracting 0.5 percentage points. Home building, which we know is in a deep hole, also detracted 0.1% from GDP.

Household savings continued at their recent very high level. The ABS said the rate was 9.3% in the quarter, up from 9% in the December quarter, but down slightly from the 10.1% in the three months to last September.

Does the data mean the RBA was too pessimistic yesterday when it cut rates? No — apart from the historical nature of the data, remember the RBA cut rates because of concerns about the international situation and a benign inflation outlook. But the bank had forecast 2012 growth about 3% in its May Monetary Policy Statement. That will now be revised (unless Europe goes bad).

But the data will rule out any further rate cuts because the domestic economy continues to grow, despite its undoubted patchiness in sectors such as department store retailing and home building. The only rate cuts we will now get over the rest of this year will be if Greece or Spain produce a crisis in the eurozone, which crunches world markets in a repeat of late 2008 after Lehman Brothers collapsed. The GDP data makes forecasts by the likes of Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, for more rate cuts this year, look a little optimistic at best.

That means no more good news on rates for Treasurer Wayne Swan, but he’ll be delighted with today’s figures. They reinforce the government’s story about the economy and the rationale for, and the capacity to reach, a budget surplus, even if there remain concerns a softening international outlook will lead to falls in tax revenue next financial year.

As for Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, their response to yesterday’s RBA cut was to say that it reflected a soft economy caused by poor economic management. Swan might now be awfully tempted to invoke the old footy expression: look at the scoreboard, fellas. Australia’s annual growth pace of 4.3% compares with 1.9% in the US in the March quarter, zero to negative growth in the eurozone; a 0.1% contraction in the UK and 2.7% growth in Japan. China’s growth was 8.1% (down from 9.2% at the end of 2011) and India’s 5.3, down from just over 7% at the end of 2011.
Report bigted. June 6, 2012 10:03 AM BST
did Abbott say today our economy is going 'gangbusters' Confused. Laugh

Anyway have ression busting bet ..melb trot 7. Georgefrongaum... Will win Wink
Report Proud To Punt June 6, 2012 10:44 AM BST
GDP shows how strong our economy is. No ression and there will be no ression. Its there for all to see.
Report Mrben June 6, 2012 2:28 PM BST
of course gdp is up!

population keep rising thru immigration, gdp has to be up.Shocked

just like "jobs created " will be up next time.

economy still in recession.SadCry

all govt figs paint a much rosier picture than real life events.

reserve bank cut rates just yesterday due to the  subdued economy.

Why did they do that? because we are in recession.

the recessionCry

ps.Im away for  a few days so don't wet your nappies when I dont reply.Silly
Report AFL June 6, 2012 9:44 PM BST
1+1=2.....F/Y/I. Grin
Report PCisaripoff June 7, 2012 2:56 AM BST
When am i going to go broke? Or is this prediction just more conservative spin (insert bull*hit instead of spin)
Report Thebas June 7, 2012 5:17 AM BST
as an individual pcisa .. well only you can know

as a country, however, information relating to that is published

for example ... this media release took place yesterday ... just one day before the gdp media release ...   

Australia's net IIP liability position was $880.2b at 31 March 2012, an increase
of $23.8b on 31 December 2011.   Australia's net foreign debt liability increased
$7.0b to a liability position of $742.1b.    Australia's net foreign equity liability
increased $16.8b to a liability position of $138.1b.



But when you search to find out who actually owns australia's debt you run into a hidden brick wall ... as the RBA don't publish it, they just categorise it ... with the major component holder (70%+) listed merely as … "All Other"

Should this pattern continue .. our national debt will be increasing about $100 billion a year.

I do not say that our debt will be “called in” by the owners of the debt.

But you can bet we sure as hell are paying interest on it.

So, when will our country go broke is a genuine question, in this 'merry-go-money-round' of international debt and borrowings.

And we sure as hell better hope it aint the EU that hold our marker.      As they might want theirs back shortly in regards to their own ‘financial housekeeping problems”.

Should we all just jump off a bridge yet.      I doubt we need to.     Australia is holding up well independently.    But our debt “markers” are out there.     And the public record doesn’t advise us specifically who owns them.     And neither major party have ever asked the RBA to make this information publically available.
Report uncleee June 7, 2012 5:19 AM BST
you can find that info on the bank for international settlements thebas
http://www.bis.org/statistics/bankstats.htm
Report Thebas June 7, 2012 5:20 AM BST
cheers uncleee, appreciated, i'll have a snoop on that over a beer this evening Happy
Report GoVoGo June 7, 2012 6:50 AM BST
Thebas - The commonwealth's debt is about 83% owned by offshore investors.  Much of this would be overseas central banks and sovereign funds (ie. Future Fund equivalents).  Very sticky, long-term money.  The state debt would have significant offshore ownership, but not as high as the commonwealth debt.  Given that in the event of a state going bankrupt, the commonwealth government would step in, you can reasonably suppose that the public debts of the country are equal to those of the Commonwealth AND all the states and territories.  I'm guessing, but let's say 70% is owned off shore.  None of these investors would 'call in' the debt - its' not that type of debt.  What they might do if they want out is sell on the bond market.

(You mention the EU holders of our debt maybe selling as they need the dollars. The other slightly more complicated factor at work here is collateral.  You need collateral to hold debt.  As a AAA-rated debt, Australian bonds would have the highest collateral rating of what EU countries own.  They’d do more harm than good selling Aussie bonds first if their motivation was purely to cash up.)

Now keep in mind that Australia's public debt vs GDP is fine by historic standards and super-low by present international standards. 
Right now, Australian bonds are at record lows (although yields have risen ~40bs this week).  3 year bonds are about 2.40%, 10 year bonds are 3.10%.  In other words, the Commonwealth Government can currently borrow pretty much as much as they want - given they are coming off a low base - at all-time record low levels of interest.  Or to put it more simply, there has never been a time in Australia's history where it can secure finance for long-term projects (infrastructure, hospitals, schools, whatever) so cheaply. 

Doesn't it make sense, right now, to lock away some extra cash and put it to work?  (this means going into deficit now, but if now, when?)

Since when did conservative levels of debt, at low interest rates, for long-term projects for the social good become such a bad word?
Friggin politicians.

Anyway, the country isn't going broke, unless it does something really really silly from here, which is not out of the question given those currently in Canberra (on both sides of the house)!

(NOTE: I talk of public debt above.  Australia's private debt, that owed by companies and individuals is the second highest in the G20.  Much of this is driven by two main factors - individuals gearing up into overpriced housing and the big banks gearing their balance sheets to levels higher than most European banks in order to fund individuals gearing up into overpriced housing.  SO the country isn't going broke, but many individuals probably are.  And so the banks will follow.)
Report Thebas June 7, 2012 7:18 AM BST
cheers again Vo for an excellent summation ... i aint jumping lol

i am interested and have done some reseacrh on this scenario that you mention ...

The commonwealth's debt is about 83% owned by offshore investors.  Much of this would be overseas central banks and sovereign funds

... i cant find difinitive only anecdotal info on this but ...

central banks seem to be a major force now in western and many eastern countries ... yet were once a merely background entitities ... (and with their full ownership quite clouded ie us fed reserve)
Report lazza June 10, 2012 10:28 AM BST
Spain said 2 days ago that it wouldn't need a bailout!

Don't believe everything you hear from Govts.
Report megsy June 18, 2012 10:16 AM BST
Report Mrben July 10, 2012 11:01 PM BST
ANZ job ads at 3 months lows

non mining investment at 7 year lows

Darrell Lea- out the back door

the recessionCry
Report GoVoGo July 11, 2012 6:35 AM BST
I though the consumer confidence numbers released in the past 24 hours were interesting too.  They’re slightly improved in a period following rate cuts and pre-carbon tax payments.  But the current overall level of confidence is consistent with a much slower pace of household activity. Might we be about to see a very sudden slow down?

•    Some June qtr data was unusually strong (GDP, employment etc).  A fair amount of statistical anomaly here you’d think, and that will need to be ‘paid back’ in coming months with very weak data to even up.
•    recent government payments to the household sector boosted June Qtr activity. The flip side is this is now absent but utility price increases and new taxes are shifting things in the opposite direction
•    The very real prospect of the masses realising that a housing correction is underway and for the 1.7m taxpayers negatively geared, that’s not going to encourage consumption.  The locals rags are really ramping up negative property stories now, and that, in part, becomes self-fulfilling
•    The weather – been awful everywhere.  If the US data had a boost from a mild winter early in 2012, couldn’t we have a hole from a terrible winter?

(Plus we're probably only going to win about 5 medals in London and this forum will be swarming with unemployed 40yos from Swindon.)

I think at some point in the second half of this year the Aussie data could fall off a cliff.  Half the game these days is confidence, and this might be the final straw.

The biggest risk for many is this: this is not just another cyclical down turn.  It is structural and semi-permanent.  Understand the credit boom and you'll understand this.  Those who mistake it for just another cyclical downturn and hold on to bad assets, or worse, bad leveraged assets or those who try to pick bottoms in declining asset prices, they’re going to get cooked ala-lobster.  Slowly slowly.

Of course, none of this accounts for what can only be a deteriorating global growth story.
Report Mrben July 11, 2012 9:33 AM BST
foreign analyists now looking at the aust situation.

Australia Is No Spain: Wayne Swan
Published: Wednesday, 11 Jul 2012 | 2:05 AM ET Text Size By: Ansuya Harjani
Assistant Producer, CNBC Asia
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Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan has denied that Australia’s economy is at risk of a Spain-like economic crisis, calling the thesis put forth by the former chief Asia-Pacific economist for Morgan Stanley, Andy Xie “absurd”.


Getty Images
Australia Treasurer Wayne Swan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


“It’s absurd - the Australian economy and its economic fundamentals are very strong. On a yearly basis we are growing at 4 percent – we are going to grow faster than any other developed economy this year and next,” Swan told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Wednesday.

“Let’s go through the fundamentals – bringing our budget back to surplus in 2012-2013, low unemployment, strong job creation over time, a record investment pipeline in resources – half a trillion (dollars). What planet does he live on?” he added.

Xie, an independent economist with sometimes controversial views, argues that Australia is at danger of becoming the next Spain due to its reliance on foreign demand, especially from its biggest trading partner China, which he believes is decelerating faster than headline growth numbers suggest.

Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on the mining sector, which accounts for 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and half of the country’s total export earnings.

“In Spain it was government bonds that attracted foreign money. Foreigners flooded Spanish bonds because they had high interest rates and were very attractive. That foreign money pumped up a property bubble,” Xie told CNBC Asia's "Cash Flow".

In the case of Australia, investors have been rushing to invest in the mining sector. Xie believes the bursting of Australia’s mining boom could unwind that flow of money with disastrous consequences.


RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 12:20:06 11 Jul 2012
LinksList Documentid: 48143820
Australia Heading for ‘Mother of All Hard Landings’: ProsIs Australia’s ‘Extraordinary’ Growth a One-Off?Aussie Markets at Turning Point as China Slows Further
To top it off, house prices in some Australian cities have grown close to 10 percent annually in the past decade, leading to a wave of borrowing against home valuations. Household debt in the country has been around 150 percent of disposable income since 2006.

As China’s demand for resources declines, Xie says that could have a knock-on effect on the property market.

“As global commodity prices come down, mining will decline and the property bubble will burst,” he said, adding that a property crash will take down the county’s banking system as well.

Xie sees a distinct parallel with Spain, whose economic crisis was triggered by a collapse of its overheated housing market, leaving domestic banks with billions of bad loans.

Australia’s Strong Fiscal Position

But Swan argues Australia’s flexibility to lower interest rates further alongside its strong fiscal position, with low levels of public debt at 8.9 percent of GDP, ensures that the economy is well positioned to weather a downturn.

However, Xie says that Spain’s government also ran surpluses prior to the crisis - earning more in tax revenue than it was spending.

“During the (property) bubble, the Spanish government (also) ran surpluses. The economy was very strong but it (started) losing competitiveness and that’s what we’re seeing in Australia today.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48143819
Report Mrben July 11, 2012 9:37 AM BST
also this

Australia is headed for the “mother of all hard landings,” according to Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, who says the country’s “credit bubble” could burst if China’s economy suffers a sharp slowdown

full article  http://www.cnbc.com/id/47290031

all these articles are based on an anticipation that china slows and hence mining slides.

I would hate to see the results on retail if mining  goes back to normal levels.
Report Mrben July 12, 2012 3:33 AM BST
Australian  jobs lose 33,500. News claims it as a "surprise"Laugh.What is the surprise it that in preceding months jobs were added.

Our non mining economy is contracting badly.Mining is making  a great effort to support a sinking ship.When you consider that population is expanding via immigration, a loss of jobs is a dreadful statistic.

Wait for the effects of the carbon tax to kick in, its going to be bad.B.A.D.Sad

Australia Employment Takes a Surprise Slip in June
Published: Wednesday, 11 Jul 2012 | 10:01 PM ET
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Australian employment fell by 27,000 in June, a surprisingly weak outcome that sent the local dollar lower and led investors to price in a greater chance of further cuts in interest rates.


Thursday's data from the government compared to forecasts of a flat outcome and represented pay back for a strong 27,900 gain in May. All the loss came in full-time jobs which dropped by 33,500. The unemployment rate rose a notch to 5.2 percent, as expected, while fewer people were looking for work.

"They're not great really, weaker than expected,"  Michael Turner, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

the recessionCry

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48155900
Report Mrben July 25, 2012 5:12 AM BST
the recession bites further into aussies wealth.  Jobs lost, houses continue to fall

Property prices roll back to 2002 and may fall further
Yahoo!7 Finance – 3 hours ago
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Australia’s property market is becoming more and more affordable, says Reserve Bank chief Glenn Stevens.

While various property analysts claim house prices are now too expensive for many Australians, the RBA governor reports there is no affordability crisis.

"Scaled to measures of income, Australian dwelling prices on a national basis have in fact declined and are now about where they were in 2002," said Mr Steven in a speech yesterday. 

"That is, housing has become more affordable.

"Four or five years ago we supposedly had a housing affordability crisis. Now it seems that the problem some people fear is that of housing becoming even more affordable."

The RBA chief did admit that house prices rose dramatically in the 10 years following 1995 in an address, titled The Lucky Country, in support of the Anika Foundation.

Related: We should build on our luck: RBA's Stevens

Mr Stevens then went on to say that housing prices could continue to fall and commented that it would be risky to assume that they wouldn’t.

"It is a very dangerous idea to think that dwelling prices cannot fall," said Stevens. "They can, and they have."

"We should never say a crash couldn't happen here, and the Reserve Bank continues to monitor property markets and the performance of mortgages quite closely," said Mr Stevens.

While local property prices have fallen 5 to 10 percent from their peak here, this compares with a stunning 30 per cent decline in US property prices and a significant drop in most European property markets.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-prices-at-2002-levels-.html


the recessionCry
Report Mrben July 31, 2012 7:48 AM BST
errrrrrrrrrrrrrr  did I tell you or did I tell youWhoops


my detrators have egg all over their faces whilst they tAKE A LARGE SERVE OF humble pie.WhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoops


the socialist  ****s here are all over me all the time, but yet, once again- I triumph.



Commodities price boom is over: Ferguson
Cortlan Bennett, AAP July 13,

Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says the commodities price boom is over as China's economy slows.

AAP © Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says the commodities price boom is over as China's economy slows.

Australia blew the last mining boom and can no longer rely on high commodities prices, federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says, as China's economy continues to slow.

"From here on in, the premium prices are gone," Mr Ferguson told AAP at the opening of the new Australian Minerals Research Centre in Perth on Friday.

"We're not going to see iron ore at $US180-$US190 a tonne, we're not going to see thermal coal at about $US170 (a tonne), coking coal at about $US320 a tonne any more.

"The only way we will maintain our revenue stream as a country, at a state and federal level, is if we expand capacity."

While Australia was in the midst of the greatest mining boom in its history - with $270 billion committed to future projects and $230 billion more potentially on the way - it had failed to fully cash in on the previous boom of the mid-2000s, the resources minister said.

"Australia did not, as a nation, and nor did the companies, get the last resources boom right," he said.

"China grew quicker than expected - they failed to invest in capacity and we lost market share."

Mr Ferguson said Australia was already disadvantaged by its high labour costs and the resources sector needed to be more efficient.

"We are, in essence, a high-wage economy," he said.

"As grades fall and input costs rise, the Australian resources sector will only continue to prosper if more efficient mining and processing techniques are implemented.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/14308214/commodities-price-boom-is-over-ferguson/
Report PCisaripoff July 31, 2012 8:13 AM BST
All the doomsday people,  You should travel more, get overseas, see how lucky we are in this great country.
Open your eyes & stop plying the party line like doped up robots. The only problem we have in this country are people that eat propoganda & media that have little talent but live on feeding fear.
We live in the best country in the world, have a think about your life compared to people in alot of countries you've visited.
Report Thebas July 31, 2012 8:28 AM BST
crikey ... has he spoken to our julia yet ?



Resources Minister Martin Ferguson

"We're not going to see iron ore at $US180-$US190 a tonne, we're not going to see thermal coal  at about $US170 (a tonne), coking coal at about $US320 a tonne any more.

"The only way we will maintain our revenue stream as a country, at a state and federal level, is if we expand capacity."


********

julia and her fake environmental tax lololol ...

the truth is now out .. they want (need) to BURN MORE


SHAME ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT EH JULIA-R   ... that was your reason for the fake co2 tax wasn't it JULIA-R
Report Mrben July 31, 2012 8:48 AM BST
excellent points BAS.

the mining tax is poorly contructed and predicated on a never ending boom at maximum prices.Wayne swann will now deliver a deficit, just a question of how big.

Implications for the broader economy are much more serious.
Report whoopi August 17, 2012 2:59 AM BST
Get your travel in.The aussie dollars will be   below 90 cents soon and may go to 60 cents ultimatly.

  This recession will be savage because the much of the world will have an even worse time of it than us. Politicians- far from providing solutions will just make the pain worse.

if your holding stocks sell asap and buy back in down the track at heavily reduced prices.


update....Aus dollar at 1.05
All Ords at 4372 (was 4111 at time of the original post.....
Any time frame on the dire predictions of doom and gloom?
2025 maybe?
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report whoopi August 17, 2012 3:11 AM BST
Oh and lets not forget the other marker that was chosen, retail figures:
(Seasonally adjusted)
November 2011 Retail turnover (in millions): 21000
June 2012..................................: 21600
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report PCisaripoff August 17, 2012 3:48 AM BST
Can the author of this ridiculous thread please explain what a Ression is?
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