Alex69

HELLO, good evening & welcome to my latest blog. More darts tips coming up soon, ladies & gentlemen, but first another brief instalment in my best-selling 'A-Z of Better Punting'. I hope you enjoy it, put my advice into practise and reap the inevitable financial rewards.

E is for Ecstasy
In other words, don’t bet while drunk or on drugs. Sorry to sound like a vicar here, but betting while drunk or on drugs is a disaster waiting to happen. Your judgement is skewed, you’ll spend loads more money than you would sober and you’ll make all the wrong decisions, resulting in an empty wallet with a hangover around the corner. Don’t even bet when you’re a bit tired either. Always have a clear head when you’re betting. This way you’ll stay in control of your finances and your destiny.

E is also for Edge
In casinos, the term ‘house edge’ is often bandied about. This is what the casino does to ensure it always wins – in the end. Similarly, on fixed-odds betting terminals and fixed-odds online games the odds are ‘fixed’, hence the title, so that the operator i.e. the company providing your ‘entertainment’ always takes your money. In betting, acquiring an edge takes a lot of hard work, time and effort. Put the aforementioned in, however, and you’ll reap the rewards with a big wheelbarrow full of cash or, if you prefer, a much larger bank balance than you’ve been previously used to. Be open to new ideas, new techniques and new systems and only place a bet when you’ve given it your full consideration. It is the millions of mug punters in the world that keep the bookies - and the knowledgeable traders - in their fur coats and flash cars.

Remember: Betting is only a right laugh when you're winning.

Good luck & happy punting!

HELLO, good evening & welcome to the fourth part of my A-Z guide to better punting. I hope it reaches you well. Have a little read, digest it, then apply the wisdom to your next few bets & see how much your bank rises.

D is for do your maths
If mathematics isn’t your strong point, take steps to make sure that it is. A lot of failed bets are down to simply doing your maths wrong. For example, if the selection you’ve put your money on was priced at 2.0, when in reality it should have been closer to 5.0, then you’re the mug. Never put a bet on before you’ve worked out which website offers you the best odds on that bet, making sure of course that you’ve compared like for like i.e. decimal against decimal or fractional against fractional. Would you know, for example, that 7/4 is actually a longer price than 1.74 or that 2.26 is a longer price than 9/4? Don’t forget that Betfair claim five per cent of all your winnings if you place a bet on their site, whereas other sporting websites don’t take a commission. Having said that, Betfair prices are often far superior to those offered by others! There is plenty of light illuminating the tunnel to success online, however, even if you’re more of an Albert Trotter than an Albert Einstein, in the form of dutching calculators, bet settlers and the like which work everything out for you.

D is also for Do your research
Flukes do happen, but not very often. The more you know about the subject of the bet, be it a horse, a tennis player, a football team or whatever, the better. That knowledge, however, is not sufficient foundation to make a bet. You also need to know all about the opposition. This is a mistake many mug punters make all the time. And they wonder why they have so many losing streaks.
How about betting on contests where there is little to no chance of a fluke? That’s the way you need to think.
Research and study takes time and effort, but this will ultimately be rewarded in cold, hard cash. Every professional punter will specialise in one sport, because to try and gain the breadth and depth of knowledge required to consistently win money in more than one sport would take a brain the size of Las Vegas.

D is also for Don’t chase your Losses
Never ever chase your losses. Take them on the chin, put them down to experience, assess exactly why you lost in as scientific and analytical a way as possible, then steel yourself for your next bet – and don’t rush into it. Perhaps take a little time out for a total rest or a spot of paper trading. Fail to prepare and prepare to fail – it’s an old cliché, but one of the many that are spot on when it comes to betting. Chase your losses and all you’ll end up with is more losses. This is a true mark of a mug punter. Consider this – you’ll only have losses to chase if you’ve put daft bets on in the first place.

Remember: Always try & protect your stake wherever possible by timely trading

Good luck & happy punting!

HELLO, good evening & welcome to the cocktail bar. I'm not one to crow, but that was a phenomenal night of tipping by anyone's standards (see previous blog, posted this morning, entitled Tonight's tungsten-tipped tip top tips).

Well done to everyone who followed my blog tonight & for those of you who had the guts to roll over your profits feel free to treat yourself to something nice, like a holiday & first class travel. Please excuse me, I'm being handed a large glass of champers.

In case you missed it, I tipped Wade to win, Jenkins +2.5, over 7.5 180s in the Anderson/Whitlock game, a trade on the draw in the same match and finally the NAP which was to dutch the correct scores of Taylor 8-1, 8-2, 8-3.

THIS... IS... EASY!!!

Remember: You have to be in it to win it. Thank-you & goodnight.

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. My most loyal followers will be well aware that I have landed my last three NAPS on the Premier League Darts, so this week I’ll be looking to continue that winning streak.

In a curious quirk of the fixtures, each match tonight sees a winner from last week play a loser from last week. The first match, on initial inspection, looks more like a Before And After slimming advert than a darts contest as it features the ever-expanding bespectacled left-hander James Wade, versus the altogether more slimline version in the shape of Mark Webster. Wade’s Premier League chances looked dead and buried three weeks ago, but he suddenly seems to be rejuvenated after two consecutive wins. Webster, meanwhile, is on a shocking losing streak and his 8-2 demolition of Adrian Lewis on March 3 is a dim and distant memory. Despite Webster’s abysmal run I expect him to give Wade a bit of a game, but the Machine will triumph in this one.

The recommended bet is therefore to back a Wade win @ 1.75, which represents pretty good value as this punt has been matched as low as 1.6 already.

Jenkins/Barney is the next game up for inspection. Barney lost 6-8 in the corresponding fixture, but he has won three out of his last four and I don’t see why he can’t continue this run of form against Jenkins. While The Bull was swept away by Taylor 8-2 last week (NAP landed), he’ll put up a better fight against Barney, so the recommendation here is to back Jenkins on the handicap (+2.5 legs) at 1.81 or better. This way, you’re covering a lot of potential outcomes.

Thirdly, we have Whitlock against Anderson. Expect a 180-fest in this contest as both players are prolific maximum scorers with the pair already posting a maximum count in the 40s for the tournament, matched only by Phil Taylor. Back over 7.5 180s at anything better than 1.8. I expect a close-run contest here, the closest of the night in fact, so try backing the draw with a view to trading out after five or six legs.

And finally, we have the clash of the Stoke heavyweights Taylor v Lewis. There is nothing Taylor would like more than to avenge his week one defeat against his protégé Lewis and to this end I can see no other outcome than a resounding victory. Taylor’s nine consecutive wins ahead of this game will have been no more than preparation for this one in The Power’s eyes. I can’t quite envisage a whitewash, but a dutch of 8-1, 8-2, 8-3 to Taylor has to be tonight’s NAP selection, which currently works out at a tasty 2.64.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: Form is temporary, tattoos are permanent.

(For reference, Dutching is when you want to bet on more than one outcome in any given event, in order to win the same amount, regardless of which selection is successful. There are several Dutching Calculators online for you to tinker around with for free)

HELLO, good evening and welcome to my latest blog. I'm going to go snooker loopy again tomorrow (if I have time - I must admit I never thought it would take this long to count all the change I've accumulated down the back of my settee). For the time being, please enjoy my latest A-Z of Better Punting contribution for your collection.

C is for calculations
No offence to the innumerate (i.e. the millions of chumps who spunk their money on the National Lottery week in, week out), but if you can’t calculate the odds of winning then you shouldn’t be reading this. For the record, the average odds of winning the National Lottery are 14,000,000/1. That’s fourteen million to one. Yup. You’ve got two chances – slim and none, and slim’s out of town (I nicked that one from Don King - it soumds better when he says it). Put it this way, would you put a pound on a horse, a greyhound or a football team quoted at 14,000,000/1? Er… no, you wouldn’t. Unless you’re completely stupid and have more money than sense, in which case you shouldn’t be reading this.

C is also for Cash – real cash
Before you get used to gambling online successfully, the ‘real cash’ test is something you should subject yourself to every time you fancy a punt. Like all sound advice that’s ever been given on anything, what you’re about to read is incredibly simple and helpful, yet only a few people ever heed it. If you haven’t reached the point where you’re confident that your selection will actually prove successful, add the following to the process you go through when you place a bet online. Have a think about how much cash you want to commit to the bet and before clicking that ‘confirm’ or ‘place bet’ button, get that amount of cash out of your wallet, take a look, give it a feel if you like and assess honestly whether you’d be prepared to hand over that exact amount of money to a bookmaker. You’d be surprised how much this affects your decision. If you haven’t got the requisite amount of cash in your pocket, ask yourself - is this because you’re skint? And if you are skint, why are you? It’s not because you’ve gambled it all away is it by any chance? Better punters not only know their limits but they can judge instinctively what amount to risk on any bet.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: Money can't buy you love, but it can buy you stuff.

HELLO, good evening & welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you all well. Here’s the second instalment of my A-Z guide to better punting. Read it, enjoy it, follow the advice and watch that wheelbarrow gradually fill up with cash. I’ll be putting some more snooker, darts and football betting advice up very soon.

B is for Betting-in-Running
Lots and lots of free money can be won while betting in running – if you’ve researched your event properly that is. Markets move like crazy until the race or match starts – if betting in running is available, the markets keep on moving right until the end of the race or match. Knowing when to place your bet, therefore, is just as important as knowing which type of bet to place and which event/team/horse/dog to bet on. In some instances it is possible to ‘trade out’ and have a free bet or even cover all options with a small profit on each, regardless of the outcome. The rule of thumb regarding the timing of your bet is fairly straightforward. Be in full possession of the facts before you click your mouse. Know exactly who is playing or who is running and, using your successful paper trade spreadsheet as reference, place your bet when the market conditions you have concluded are the best ones show themselves.

Never bet in running, however, when you aren’t watching what you’re betting on live, because otherwise all you’re doing is making a selection based purely on the odds rather than what you should be basing your selection on – inside knowledge, information you have gathered, fact and science.

Think about it – a “blind” bet or a lay on an in-running market is throwing away money and trusting to luck. If you don’t mind throwing your money away, don’t read this blog and make regular donations to a charity of your choice. By betting in running on something you’re not watching, you’re not in full possession of the facts. Plus, beware ‘live’ internet feeds as these can be several seconds, or even minutes behind. A football team may be in front, for example, but might have had a man sent off. A tennis match might be balanced on a knife edge in terms of the fitness and ability of the players. Another major pitfall of betting on tennis live is that players can retire hurt, even if they’re leading. As for betting live on horse racing – you might as well forget it unless you’re at the track and you’ve got a very reliable connection to Betfair on your mobile - you're better off placing both your back and your lay bet before the off.

All live betting should be done impartially and with a clear head. The reasons for this are many and varied, with some of the primary ones as follows.

Be honest with yourself when you answer the following three questions...
When did you last attend a live sporting event without having a pint or two beforehand or during?
When you go to a sporting event are you supporting one of the teams or competitors for reasons outside the fact that they are statistically better than their opposition?
When you watch live sport are you with people who have partisan opinions about the teams or individuals competing?

If you can honestly say no to all three, then you might have a chance of placing a successful in-running bet on a live event. Just be wary of the pitfalls. You’re more likely to place a successful bet on an event that you’ve given a lot of advance thought and consideration to.

In summary, a bet placed after a good few hours of careful, impartial research with a clear head is more likely to boost your wallet than a hastily thrown-on wager on a whim because you’ve been carried away with the emotion, the spectacle and the atmosphere – and you’ve had a beer.

B is also for Budget
Apologies for what seems like blatantly obvious advice here, but any punter not betting to a budget is a mug punter. Decide what your starting bank is, or alternatively decide how much you want/can afford to spend on betting each week and stick to it. Keep track of all the money you’ve spent on your spreadsheet and this way if you have an unlucky run you won’t end up on the street with no friends, no family and no prospects. It’s often a good idea, like in life, to set a few realistic targets for yourself when it comes to betting. For example, you might want to look at making a certain amount of money in, say six months. Perhaps you might want to aim at making a certain sum each week. Otherwise, you may want to make slightly more money week on week. Whatever you decide upon, stick to it and don’t go mad.

B is also for Breather – take one every now and then
As my old driving instructor 'Safe' Kelvin McPickard used to say: “Why do you think that road user sat and waited while you did that manoeuvre? Because he wasn’t in a rush.” Not the most philosophical insight ever, but wholly relevant nonetheless. If one of your bets happens to lose, don’t rush into the next one because you can guarantee that your next one will lose too. Take your time, like the tortoise did when he was racing against the rabbit. He won in the end. He was in no rush. Steaming into bets is always a bad idea. Do your research, paper trade it, relax, have a final think, then stick the bet on.

B is also for boastfulness
Don’t boast about your success – boastfulness is bad and people will become resentful of you and your betting expertise.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: A well-worked trade beats a daft punt any time.

HELLO, good afternoon and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you all well. I have some strong fancies for tonight’s Premier League Darts in Sheffield as the Steel City hosts its biggest night of sport before the start of this year’s World Snooker Championships at the Crucible.

Gary Anderson, who has won two-thirds of his matches thus far, should have more than enough to ease past Webster, whose unusual softpaw technique still gives me the jitters. While Anderson’s price of 1.45 is a little short for my liking, it still amounts to a decent ROI for us all and I’d advise backing the Scotman here.

Of last week’s winners, Lewis’ league record has a noticeable symmetry about it – played 9, won four, drawn 1, lost four, points 9, while his opponent’s is a more stark won 5, lost 4. In other words, Lewis is wholly unpredictable and Barney either wins handsomely or loses sorrowfully. For those reasons I’m advising a swerve here for the first time on my blog, although I do have a strong fancy for more than 7.5 180s to be hit, so that might be your best option rather than trusting on trading on the match odds in-running. Barney came up against a simply inspired Whitlock last week who would have given anyone a game in that sort of form. While the big Dutchman sometimes flatters to deceive, I’m a fan of his languid approach and effortless technique, as opposed to Lewis’s phantom flan flinging. I’d also advise a big back on over 7.5 pints of forehead sweat being produced by the pair.

James Wade, who takes on The Wizard tonight, has a less than exemplary record in this season’s Premier League and is unlikely to progress any further than the league stage as he’s currently in the bottom three. Whitlock was impressive in his Dutchman demolition last week and I fancy him to continue in this vein tonight. Back a Whitlock win.

And finally, Taylor won last week and he should comfortably post the best stats of the night when he takes to the oche later. The Power is once again firing on all 100.84 cyclinders and another NAP dutch of Taylor 8-0, 8-1 and 8-2 is the order of the day in this fixture against an out-of-sorts Jenkins.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: It’s no use looking cocky on the oche if you can’t do the okey-cokey

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my latest blog. I hope it reaches you well. As a little aside to my usual tips on darts, snooker and football, here’s the start of an A-Z guide to better punting. It should stand you all, my loyal band of followers, in better stead when you make your punting decisions and overall make you all a little richer in the process.

A is for Advice
Cut out all gambling on fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs – you know the ones – there’s usually four in every bookmaker these days, surrounded by people desperate to give you tips on how to win, despite them being less than successful themselves) and their internet equivalents. Virtual roulette, blackjack and so on are called ‘fixed odds’ games because the odds are fixed in the favour of the machine, the manufacturer, the supplier and the website operator. In fact, the odds are fixed in the favour of everyone except the player. These so-called ‘virtual’ forms of betting are very cleverly programmed to bleed your wallet dry, bit by bit. Also, cut out your visits to the casino - ever heard of the term ‘house edge’? That means that the odds are always in favour of the casino, not the player. Only a lucky few players will ever make any money at a casino, even less will make money at a casino on a regular basis.

A is also for Averages
Having accumulated many years of punting expertise, I like to think that I know more than the average tipster, but there are times when even I don’t get the rub of the green. Yes, now and then I fail to land my wood next to the jack when I’m out crown green bowling with my grandfather and his pals.
I digress. Every punter has the odd off-day from time to time and I admit, begrudgingly, that I am included in those ranks. Not that I stay on runs of bad form for any length of time as that of course would make me a mug punter – and a lot poorer for the experience. All the best punters have a grasp of the law of averages – and its sometimes wicked ways. “Surely they can’t lose again?” is a cry oft-heard by fans of underperforming teams, before they foolishly back them to win, despite them being as much use as the Pope’s balls.

You see, the law of averages must be used in the right way, or else you’ll soon become a less than average punter. What a better punter would have done in the case of the aforementioned rubbish team and its abysmal run of form would be to either lay it (i.e. back it to lose or draw) or look at the average score that it was losing by and put together a staking plan based on its previous results, perhaps dutching two or three correct scores. As a real-life example, I did this on the Taylor/Webster Premier League darts match last week and it paid off handsomely (see an earlier blog entitled 'Power-up your profit').

Face it, abysmal runs of form in any sport have a lot more to do with being the worst team/the poorest player rather than simply being unlucky. Exactly the same rule applies to punting. If that terrible team happens to be the one you support, disregard that for the sake of your betting bank. In other words, get the law on your side - the law of averages.

I look forward to talking to you all again soon.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: He who laughs last will have the smile wiped off his face eventually

HELLO, good afternoon and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. After last week’s three out of four success (and the advice to sit back and relax once the first three had been safely landed) I’m aiming to capitalise on my fine run of form and maximise the income for you, my loyal and ever-growing band of followers.

With the risk of repeating myself repeating myself repeating myself and s-s-s-sounding like a stuck r-r-r-record, statistically speaking this season’s Premier League has produced far fewer draws than it should have done, particularly given that seven of the eight competitors are so evenly matched. The exception is, of course, The Power, whose ‘A’ game is simply eons ahead of the rest.

Tonight’s match-ups see Anderson play Jenkins, Lewis take on Wade, Webster go head to head with Taylor and Barney face Whitlock. As ever, I have strong views on each of these fixtures.

Anderson v Jenkins and Lewis v Wade will be the closest of the bunch and if neither of these finish level – or 8-6 – I’ll slink off back to my castle in southern Spain and ponder the error of my ways. In both, try dutching 8-6 either way and the 7-7. In other words, cover 8-6/6-8 and 7-7. If any of the three results come in you’re laughing as the odds are more than favourable.

In the Barney/Wizard fixture, I fancy the bearded one to triumph in a reversal of fortunes from their match in the first rotation of fixtures. Expect a high quality game here with over 7.5 180s.

I’ve left my NAP selection until last. Put simply, Taylor will maul Webster.
Dutch Taylor to win 8-0, 8-1 and 8-2 for overall odds of approximately 3.4 (12/5). If you want less risk, simply back The Power to win for what is virtually free money. His odds, while short at 1.22, make for a better return than ‘investing’ with a bank or building society.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: always look to trade when the market swings your way.

(For reference, Dutching is when you want to bet on more than one outcome in any given event, in order to win the same amount, regardless of which selection is successful. There are several Dutching Calculators online for you to tinker around with for free)

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. I’m turning my attention to snooker for the next few weeks, but fear not I will also be providing my usual tip top darts tips in between. The recently-completed China Open is a useful bellwether for the World Championship, as it’s the last major snooker tournament to be played before the boys take to the baize at the Crucible in Sheffield.

I have a number of strong fancies for round one of the 2011 World Championship, backed up by solid statistics garnered from recent form and results.

LAY: Neil Robertson to beat Judd Trump, with a view to trading out in-running. Trump played superbly in the China Open, slaughtering some very experienced campaigners, such as Shaun Murphy and Peter Ebdon en route to victory over Mark Selby in the final. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t continue in this rich vein of form at Sheffield. The Australian, on the other hand, was unceremoniously dumped out by Ebdon 5-1 and could live to regret the knock-on effect of missing out on valuable table time. I believe Trump will give Robertson a hell of a game and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one went to a final frame decider.

LAY: Ronnie O'Sullivan to beat Dominic Dale. The mercurial cockney apologised to Chinese fans after he slumped to a 5-2 defeat against Ryan Day in the opening round of last month’s China Open. Triple World Champion O'Sullivan has not won a televised ranking match since September 2010 and has lost in the opening phase of the last four tournaments in which he has played. Once again, look to trade out in-running as while The Rocket isn’t performing like we all know he can, you can guarantee he’ll knock up at least one century break in the match. He is, after all, brilliant, and could beat most of the top 16 with his 'wrong hand' if he fancied it.

BACK: Martin Gould to beat Marco Fu. Historical precedent goes in favour of Gould, who beat Fu 10-9 in round one last year. He looks the value bet of the round as his odds (currently around the 2.5 mark) don’t reflect his chances. Meanwhile, Fu’s defeat in the first round of the China Open to Trump will have robbed him of match practise and dented his confidence.

FOUR-FOLD: Ding Junhui, John Higgins, Ricky Walden, Mark Selby. All four are in good form, are proven Crucible performers and will have plenty in the tank to cruise past weaker opposition.

BACK: A 147 break to be made at some stage the 2011 Snooker World Championships
With the standard of snooker universally accepted to be at its highest ever level, a dozen of the competitors at The Crucible are more than capable of scoring maximum breaks. With 31 matches to be played over the course of two weeks from April 16, at least one player will make the perfect visit to the table and justifiably take their place in snooker’s hall of fame. Pile into this at anything better than even money before the off.

REMEMBER: It’s possible to score a break of 155 if your opponent fouls and leaves you with a free ball so long as you pot the black after the colour you nominate as the ‘extra’ red. You’d then win the frame by anything from 159-162 to nil, depending on which ball your opponent struck when he committed his foul. This type of occurrence is, admittedly quite rare.

I’ve only won in this way a handful of times in my career.

Good luck and happy punting!

The World Snooker Championship commences on April 16