Amazing horse, made it look easy!

Hi FACTS being a profitable punter I would like your opinion on something I was trialing today. I have full time work and young family commitments which means my time is very limited but betting on horses is a passion of mine.

Today I was using RPR's and matching it up against those who an RPR which exceeded their current OR. Further to this I was then further assessing the conditions they achieved these RPR'S. Course/distance/going etc. I was then looking for any reasons for improvement, e.g. a horse who had been staying on moving up in trip/lightly raced/change of trainer maybe even wind surgery depending on the yard performing it.

I was also trying to use Top speed and this is a figure I am still a little unsure how to use. I did notice pre race that whilst Apples Jade had great RPR figures over 3 miles the top speeds where relatively poor which suggested she may not yet have been fully tested in a strong paced 3 mile race. I didn't lay her but it was just an Observation. At the moment I am thinking that the top speed may indicate if a horse is better from a slow or fast pace. As most top festival handicaps are run at pace it could be a handy feature for them.

I didn't use this method on the National as I was already set on RathVinden (although I would have been pointed to Tiger Roll if I did).  The results were OKish Nestor Park drifted like a barge and pulled up, Angels breath pulled far too hard before managing third. Ornua won well, Oldgrangewood managed a place as did this time next year so a lot were hitting the post.

Obviously there are other factors in play such as a horse may have improved a lot but not ran at that type of track since the improvement.

Do you think I could be profitable using the RPR and time speed figures as a guide? Or should I give up the ghost and concentrate on another hobby?

Thank you for replying.

I thought that since I would never have enough time to watch a lot of races then maybe I could use ratings that other people have compiled as a starting point. Only other option is to specialise in certain types of races and watch all those races. The problem I have here is that I don't want to spend all time on it if I still can't win afterwards.

I guess Ill just concentrate on Cheltenham and Aintree until the children are older and then I'll have another go. Is the key just watching and assessing as many races as you can?

Nothing like being honest Facts

GCW ...... "but betting on horses is a passion of mine"

That is an interesting statement,one I and many punters through the ages,can understand.

"I don,t want to spend all time on it if I still can,t win afterwards"

You have almost answered that one yourself,one surely can only follow the other.

As for ratings,settle on one you trust,OR would be my choice as a baseline only.

Finding a beast that you think is under-estimated is fair enough,but only part of the puzzle.

The advent of exchanges has changed the goalposts for every serious punter.

Just a quick look at the money traded on here,compared to the prizemoney for the lower grade stuff,might lead you in a certain direction.

If you only bet at the two meetings you mention,you would have a headstart on many around you.

Simply put,there are no shortcuts,but concentrating on a type, or grade of racing,can only benefit you in the short term.

That family point is hugely important,like all hobbies it,s a juggling act,one means nothing,the other everything.

Your last sentence above is on the right lines,how you can use that assessment is another story itself.

Acknowledging you want to improve is a huge positive,it took me 30 yrs to admit that to myself.

Across the table sit some of the sharpest minds on the planet,thats the bottom line for all of us.

Whatever you decide,best of luck.

Lol ! No need to noc. It's good to share thoughts, ideas  and suggestions

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