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Fabulous, it's a forum mate and there's no need to be obnoxious. People put forward horses and others discuss what they think are it's merits. If you don't want people to comment then why put them on here. I merely put forward a valid point and I wasn't ridiculing you because I have no strong fancy for the race and I assume you are being facetious when you say you don't know what ORs are. Also nowhere can you find anything to suggest I'm telling you what to put forward as your fancies as there would be no need for this forum if that was the case. You also have to remember that I'm not a guru but I did win the race in 2002 lol.
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Bindaree, may I suggest you put that poster on ignore? I've, and I've not missed his/her "contribution" here one bit since! Try it and trust me you'll not regret it. By doing so you're also allowing and encouraging a nicer breed and more considerate posters who do not think or claim they rule this platform or horse racing oficianados.
My humble 4 are (1) Tiger Roll (2) Total Recall, (3) Cause Of Causes and (4) Rathvinden. I hope at least 2 will turn up. Happy Easter! |
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Thanks for the advice Impossible but it doesn't bother me, just a bit disappointed. Nearer the race I will put forward some horses, they will be bigger priced ones looking more for the place angle, and no doubt plenty will disagree and if they give their reasons I can happily live with that but I wont disrespect their views. Quite frankly I will probably agree anyway because I can't find a horse in the field which hasn't got chinks in it's armoury. At least a few more are starting to come onto this forum.
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And BTW I've not trolled anybody. If I have an opinion that I don't think a horse will stay, jump round, too old, too young or anything else it's just my opinion and surely that's what the forum is about, OPINIONS !! And I'm not saying anybody elses is wrong if I disagree with them.
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Bellshill runs tomorrow so unlikely to be at Aintree. Suppose I should back it tomorrow but I don't like taking on Elliott with so many runners. They are capable of baulking everything else.
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wow, has Fabulous got PMT or something?!
What a pathetic and childish reply to somebody raising a very relevant point. No need to be so tetchy about a discussion forum being used for er................discussion ![]() Some interesting lists. Not sure I can really produce one until nearer the time as going is everything for me on National Day. If it's soft/heavy I will discount anything carrying above 11 stone and hasn't won over at least 3m 4f. |
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Gutted. Bellshill gave them all a jumping lesson but just didn't quite stay.
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Thought it stayed on again near the finish Sageform but it was a terrific performance giving all that weight away(over a stone to the other 4).
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And in that ground I should have added !!
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Tiger Roll
Rathvinden Vintage Clouds Ucello Conti 4 is enough for me |
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Vintage Clouds
Shantou Flyer Thunder and Roses Lot depends on going really |
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My Ante Post bets
Tiger Roll 50/1 The Last Samurai 50/1 Warriors Tale 60/1 Shantou Flyer 60/1 Final Nudge 80/1 Captain Redbeard 130/1 and 80/1. Virgilio 130/1 Basically 1 placed and all bets covered. |
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Shockster, I'm having a few doubts about Shantou Flyer now. When you look at it's relatives there doesn't seem to be any real stayers but a lot of 20 furlong horses. It's looks like it should stay and has the class but whether it will last out 4 miles plus I'm not so sure. Anyone know if it has any half brothers etc that I might have missed ?
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I'm keen on Vintage Clouds too, but at 52 in the weights, even with the likely non-runners, I'm not convinced he will get in this year?
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My 6 against the field...
Total Recall Tiger Roll Regal Encore Warriors Tale Captain Redbeard Vintage Clouds |
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Bindaree, you may well be right, but Shantou Flyer is in great form has good young jockey booked and at 60/1 I think he's worth a go. He acts on soft, so quite a few positives, but if he doesn't stay then it won't matter anyway.
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Betfair and Paddypower just gone NRNB on the National and both still have Vintage Clouds at 50s for anyone wanting to back him with a run at a decent price (only 33s on the other NRNB books).
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Alpha Des Obeaux
Ucello Conti Bless The Wings Warriors Tale |
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Just added Baie Des Iles at 75/1 (Hills Boost) Her last run now looks pretty good after the Irish National. She's only 7 but still has a lot of experience as she came from France.
More of a LONG LIST than a short list now. ![]() |
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interesting view about Bellshill Bindaree. I thought he had plenty left going to the second last but he hit that and was treading water (literally) afterwards for me. He tried to run out or refuse at the last which is a sure sign of exhaustion. He lost 4 places from there home and although he was not beaten far, they were all walking by then. Can't see him running again this season but you never know.
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The time at Fairyhouse on Monday was only 1 second faster than last years Aintree Grand National, despite the much shorter distance. Bellshill was entitled to be exhausted giving lumps of weight to everything about it. If Willie is right about the distraction, I think he should keep the horse to hurdles until next year's weights are announced.
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I know what you're saying Sageform but at the last it looked like Bellshill would be beat 4 maybe more lengths at the finish. I didn't bet it , just taking an unbiased view of the race. As for it's rating I think the handicapper won't be fooled by it not running and if it doesn't I say stick a few extra pounds on it, maybe teach wealthy owners that the National isn't there to boost their bank balance or ego. The race belongs to the public or it used to be.
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sageform 02 Apr 18 17:12
Gutted. Bellshill gave them all a jumping lesson but just didn't quite stay. Not as gutted as me. Bellshill turned left, causing another horse to broadside into Folsom Blue , ( my bet). FB certainly wasn't ' walking' after that. Without the interference he would have won. |
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Shortlist update as we approach 5 day decs
Baie Des Iles - Trained for the day . The Dutchman - Another with an 'if' , but he was hacking up at Haydock until stopping , stable sound confident. Milansbar - Big horse who will go very close if in the form of Warwick win. Regal Encore - If in the mood can do a lot better than last year . Warriors Tale - Stamina to prove , but serious player if doing so. The Last Samurai - Ran well all season ,if patiently ridden can win at 3rd attempt. Dropped Road To Riches - changed mind ,gone at the game Tiger Roll - price gone and that footage of him stumbling over an Aintree fence. Shantou Flyer - Busy season and did not get home last year. |
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Think you may have got The Dutchman, "he was hacking up at Haydock until stopping", mixed up with another horse. He was the first one off the bridle and was pulled up on the first circuit.
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I have indeed oops
Take Two Shortlist update as we approach 5 day decs Baie Des Iles - Trained for the day . Alpha Des Obeaux - Staying hurdler , never fallen over fences ,ran in lots of classy novice events. Milansbar - Big horse who will go very close if in the form of Warwick win. Regal Encore - If in the mood can do a lot better than last year . Warriors Tale - Stamina to prove , but serious player if doing so. The Last Samurai - Ran well all season ,if patiently ridden can win at 3rd attempt. Dropped Road To Riches - changed mind ,gone at the game Tiger Roll - price gone and that footage of him stumbling over an Aintree fence. Shantou Flyer - Busy season and did not get home last year. |
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Is Tiger Roll not a better jumper this season? I think he is also a fresher horse than Total Recall after an 89 day break prior to Cheltenham; the latter also fell in the Gold Cup.
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Anibale Fly
Go Conquer Tiger Roll Houblon Des Obeaux Milansbar Final Nudge |
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Raz de Maree-I really like his chance on soft, not worried he is 13, if it was heavy wouldn't want to be on anything else
Vintage Clouds-if he was to jump an average round he will be right there Warriors Tale-just beaten at Doncaster but looked to be staying on there and previously at Newbury in other runs, unexposed at longer than 3 miles Milansbar-has long distance form. Jumped and ran superbly for Bryony at Warwick in same race that Arthur won last year. Gas line boy-has really good Aintree form, 5th last year when hampered at last 2 fences, will be there again |
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Found on another website.
Shantou's progeny over 28.5 furlongs plus Runners - 36 Winners - 0 Placed - 1 0% win rate 2.78% place rate On that evidence it would suggest Shantou Flyer is definitely up against it. |
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didnt gas line fall there?
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Gasline Boy fell 3 out when clear on the Mildmay course. It still stings.
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Fell at the first in 2015 Callisto.
That was a sore one that day Shockster, would surely have won |
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so fallen twice at aintree.
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Roselier, I would say that is putting it very diplomatically.
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Sewter I like 3 of yours and wouldn't discount the other 2. Vintage may struggle to get in but surely there are still some of these that are going to be pulled out if it is soft !!
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Struck my bets some time ago. In order of payout size
219/1 Captain Redbeard 25/1 Blaklion 69/1 The Last Samuri 64/1 Vintage Clouds 89/1 Vieux Lion Rouge 84/1 Seeyouatmidnight Missus bets only just struck: 11/1 Total Recall 12/1 Tiger Roll 33/1 Gas Line Boy |
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the only one i might add to my 5 is Seeyouatmidnight but annoyed that the price has tumbled
kept on leaving it due to the long absence and worries that it wasnt qualified seems too short for me now |
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If the ground comes up soft I'd be with:
Baie des Iles on at 66s Milansbar on at 40s Final Nudge as o/s @66s Gd/Sft or better Minella Rocco 16s Seeyouatmidnight on at 30s I'll keep the stake on the sixth.... To lay: Blacklion - 3 negatives - does he really stay?, Hard race at Haydock may have left its mark and higher in the weights since last year Tiger roll - hard race at cheltenham in the going may have left its mark, not convinced he'll take to the fences Total Recall - hard race at cheltenham, not sure he'll stay given racing style |
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From the top.
Anibale Fly Tiger Roll Minella Rocco Saint Are Lord Windermere Seeyouatmidnight GL |