Your shortlist of 6 ?

so fallen twice at aintree.

Roselier, I would say that is putting it very diplomatically.

Sewter I like 3 of yours and wouldn't discount the other 2. Vintage may struggle to get in but surely there are still some of these that are going to be pulled out if it is soft !!

Struck my bets some time ago. In order of payout size

219/1 Captain Redbeard
25/1 Blaklion
69/1 The Last Samuri
64/1 Vintage Clouds
89/1 Vieux Lion Rouge
84/1 Seeyouatmidnight


Missus bets only just struck:

11/1 Total Recall
12/1 Tiger Roll
33/1 Gas Line Boy

the only one i might add to my 5 is Seeyouatmidnight but annoyed that the price has tumbled

kept on leaving it due to the long absence and worries that it wasnt qualified

seems too short for me now

If the ground comes up soft I'd be with:
Baie des Iles on at 66s
Milansbar on at 40s
Final Nudge as o/s @66s

Gd/Sft or better
Minella Rocco 16s
Seeyouatmidnight on at 30s

I'll keep the stake on the sixth....
To lay:

Blacklion - 3 negatives - does he really stay?, Hard race at Haydock may have left its mark and higher in the weights since last year
Tiger roll - hard race at cheltenham in the going may have left its mark, not convinced he'll take to the fences
Total Recall - hard race at cheltenham, not sure he'll stay given racing style

From the top.
Anibale Fly
Tiger Roll
Minella Rocco
Saint Are
Lord Windermere
Seeyouatmidnight
GL

re shantou flyer, I am prepared to accept on the balance of his form that the horse just was not right last year (had a hard race when 2nd to cue card at ascot) and the poor form spilled over in to the start of this ssn

but the horse is flying now, has a series of excellent hcap chase lines of form at cheltenham and importantly he will get his ground

he is the most interesting runner in the line up at the big prices imo

still in the topham
seen it run several times and won once
frankly dissapointed
didnt think hed get the 4 m at cheltenham
so you might be right mate
not sure about the trained though

* trainer

I’ll be absolutely gutted if Vintage Clouds doesn’t make it.
I’m finding it extremely hard to find horses that match my selection criteria. I’m currently left with Milansbar, and if soft or worse Raz de Maree.
Given the nature of the National with the chance of bad luck, interference and being brought down I’d prefer another couple of strings to my bow and I can only do that if I conveniently overlook a couple of issues. These would be Baie des Iles (age) and Houblon Des Obeaux (current form). Of the higher weights and favs I could only have Tiger Roll but the price is too short for me
If VC does make it I will be happy to settle for him and Milansbar with a saver on Raz De Maree on soft

It is difficuly.
I layed Baie des Iles on the 7 year old stat but shes been smashed in.
As you say hits most other stats but has she got the stamina at a young age.

My shortlist so far is a mixed bag og backs and lays.

the backs are:
tiger roll
Anibale fly.

Lays.
Bair des Iles
double ross
minella daddy.

And endless there is a huge drift on Baie or she does not get entered im
pretty much stuck with that lay.

bexley imo if its soft you need to have more than a saver on Raz de Maree

Shantou Flyer I believe swallowed it's tongue last year.

Carlingford Lough assuming the poor form was a deliberate ploy to get weight off. He has won off what seemed like terrible form in the past.

I Just Know

I think the trainer summed Raz up nicely on an ATR news item in that he can get detached at the start and needs it very soft to slow them down. I don’t like my runners at the back of the field in the National, it’s kind of asking for trouble as you have to avoid all the trouble occurring in front of you.
However looking at his runs when second in the Welsh National and when winning it clear to see if he’s anywhere near in the mix with say 3 to go then there is unlikely to be a stouter stayer in the line up
Been toying with the idea of backing him in running as if as likely he is well behind on the first circuit his price should be much higher than it’s currently trading

I also must admit to having 18 horses green on the ante post market here as I have been trading it for months. I only have 4 or 5 significant greens and the rest win me a couple of hundred. The ones that are red are those I can’t picture winning at all and that includes most of the front of the market. In all honesty I can’t see Minella Rocco, Blaklion or The Last Samurai figuring at all because of the weight and Total Recall and Anibale Fly would be 33/1 shots in my book :)
Sadly for for there supporters I’m not a bookie however
If as usual the family come looking for tips then I can only see the 2 or 3 solid each way chances I have mentioned on here

bexley have a look at his previous 8th in the race on good ground Condon had basically dropped his hands between the last 2 and he was 18th jumping the last he then passes 10 horses on the run-in and is running on very strongly-makes you wonder where he would have finished if he had been ridden out earlier

I sense you really fancy him sewter!!
Will have a look. The video of his second to Native River is also amazing for how much he is running on at the end

exactly I was going to compare how he was running on in the 2 races!!

yes very strongly fancy him nearly all of the "experts" have totally disregarded him due to his age and haven't actually looked at the form

if he was 9 or 10 he would be 20/1 or less

my book is very similar to yours and yes i want Vintage Clouds to run too

I also made sure that Houblon des Obeaux was green especially with VWs horses suddenly sparking.

Like you dont really fancy any of thge market leaders. However, I was impressed by Anibale Fly when it won in Ireland before confirming that in the Gold cup-he is undoudtedly well treated but cant get his really bad Leopardstown fall out of my head

I backed Houblon at Newcastle 2 races back where I strongly fancied it and had tipped it to a few friends and it didn’t go a yard

Crap half of my reply didn’t get posted for some reason . I meant to say I can forgive him that as Milansbar did that in the Welsh National and then bounced back straight after. The positives are still there for Houblon, well weighted, top handicap form, stout stayer and will handle the ground

Just had an each way bet on Raz de Maree limited to £2.50 stakes. They are running scared Sewter

Two I like are Seeyouatmidnight who missed the festival and has obviously been targeted solely for this, you could see him getting into a rhythm out in front much like the Scottish national where I thought he got home well enough without having quite enough on the day.

The other is The Duthcman who is unexposed and could be on a pretty good mark, he was a very impressive winner on bad ground at Haydock before god knows what happened the next time he pulled up there, although he wouldn't have wanted to be going up anymore anyhow!! We all know that Haydock is a law unto itself but if it could be replicated elsewhere you would surely suggest that Aintree on soft or worse ground might do it.

Both these horses race close to the pace which I think will be the best place to be in the prevailing conditions.

yep Bexley all the 50s and most of the 40s gone now-only Coral going 40/1- cant think that will last long

My selection of Baie Des Iles appears to have caused a massive hit in the price today ......

Followed the GN long enough now to know money doesn't make anything win and you always get horses that are false prices especially greys and the ones ridden by females. Milansbar will shorten as well.

Agreed Bindaree , I expected the horses ridden by women to shrink in price , but thought it would be after tv coverage of them on Friday and Saturday .

Unless Pleasant Company is a late scratching where Baie Des Iles finishes Pleasant Company ought to be infront, all things being equal, surely?

I know you like Baie Des Iles but I do think some are exaggerating it's so-called staying prowess. I've looked at a few races and quite frankly I don't see it finishing strongly. In it's last race it was left for dead from the last and wouldn't even have been 3rd in another furlong.

Milansbar
Chase The Spud
Tiger Roll
Vieux Lion Rouge
Vintage Clouds
Captain Redbeard

Let's hope all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound. That will be the best result of all

Makybe...couldn't agree more with comments hoping they all come back.
My 6 hopefuls;
I Just Know
Final Nudge
Malinsbar
Ucello Conti
Tiger Roll
Saint Are (ground against him now but have to do him as he has won me some decent money in this race in 2015 and 17)

Final Nudge, 65 on here. I think Heavy will feature in the going on Saturday & that'll suit this fella. 13lds better off with Raz de Maree & 3lb better with my other fancy Vintage Clouds in the Welsh.

He was going well when he tipped up 2 out at Uttoxeter last year with 11 8 to lump round so the trip should hold no fear. The jockey has won around here, 9 year old, 10 5 to carry. Ticks enough boxes for me.

I looked at Saint Are after seeing a rerun of last year but his OR has been left the same as then despite being a year older and done nothing since.

After all the rain I am now looking at The Dutchman and Milansbar at lower weights as my 2 likely bets but I prefer to wait until the final decs. before parting with any money.

Had a look at Final Nudge yesterday. In the Uttoxeter race it tipped up 4 out and was just starting to be pushed along. In the Welsh Nat and it's last race it just didn't look like it had the reserves of stamina required to me.

You're right it was 4 out at Uttoxeter but for me was going the best, admittedly there long way to go. He wasn't gaining nor going backwards at Chepstow, the 15lbs less here swings it for me.

I'm adding Carlingford Lough to my shortlist.

anibale fly..best formin race and likes going
alpha des obeaux has a touch of class on a going day
ucello conti master trainer at readying one
Shantou flyer been running well all season
I just know looks laid out for the race


cant have tiger roll.seeyouatmidnight,baie des iles or capt redbeard at any prices

Furthermore to my earlier post, already got 69/1 The Last Samuri but at this stage, couldn't resist a top up at 27/1 with Laddies boost!

Hope that was 27/1 for it to make it further than one circuit?

Why only one circuit. Wasn't it runner-up last year?

Tongue in cheek of course but I don’t fancy it at all.
He was 16th last year with and he only has 2 lbs less to lug round this time.
Maybe you are referring to his 2nd to Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season over shorter and I believe both of them are badly handicapped now. Or more likely his second in the race 2 years ago off a 10 lb lower mark

10lb not the be all and end all. Depends how they jump!

The Three Ladies, The Gas Line Boy,Alpha Des Obeaux, and Carlingford Lough...

Applying the following criteria:

Minimum prep runs 4+
Proven over 3m 2f+
Form in soft or worse
Form in large fields
Carrying less than 11 stone
Age 9+

You end up with

1 Raz de Maree
2 Houblon des obeaux
3 Milansbar
4 Final Nudge
5 Thunder and roses
6 Double Ross

in order of preference.
seeyouatmidnight
captain redbeard
ucello conti
final nudge
houblon des obeaux
vieux lion rouge

always a horse the public lump on as the race approaches and imo ucello conti may well be the one. Liverpool had a boxing champion back in the day called john conteh? slightly different spelling but sounds the same . will the public latch on? good luck everyone.

See no reason to change my selections so The Dutchman win and Milansbar place are my final choices. Harry Cobden showed yesterday how well he rides the track so it is down to the horse being good enough.

Apr 9, 2018 -- 3:04PM, wondersobright wrote:

re shantou flyer, I am prepared to accept on the balance of his form that the horse just was not right last year (had a hard race when 2nd to cue card at ascot) and the poor form spilled over in to the start of this ssnbut the horse is flying now, has a series of excellent hcap chase lines of form at cheltenham and importantly he will get his groundhe is the most interesting runner in the line up at the big prices imo

SF price has collapsed in the last 24 hours (pw)

absolutely no value now @ 28

Raz de Maree
Chase the Spud
The Dutchman
Ucello Conti
I Just Know
Captain Redbeard

If one of those wins I will be happy !!

Seeyouatmidnight
Final Nudge
Thunder And Roses
Double Ross
Shantou Flyer
Milansbar

Congrats all winners

Good few tipped up tiger roll.... Well done

Can Walk in the Mill get a high enough rating to make the cut?

Currently on 145. Will very probably be rated higher (maybe 149?) for the race, given a good win over the fences. So, unless Walford runs him again over fences before the weights are out, more likely to be in the top half of the draw than balloted out imho.

Vintage Clouds
Walk In The Mill
General Principle
Tiger Roll
Dounikos
Rock The Kasbah

Rathvinden
Anibale Fly
Tiger Roll
Step Back
Joe Farrell
Ballyoptic

Walk in the Mill
Mall Dini
Minella Rocco
Tea For Two
Anibale Fly
Pleasant Company

Tea For Two
Lake View Lad
Vintage Clouds
Simglefarmpayment
Magic Of Light
Rock The Kasbah

Mall Dini
Step Back
Tea For Two
Ballyoptic
Ramses De Teilee
Vieux Lion Rouge

Tiger Roll
Lake View Lad
Vintage Cloud

Tiger Roll and Pleasant Company (two from last year)
Vintage Clouds (Cheltenham Trial)
Rathvinden (Mullins' big race double)
Anibale Fly (Gold Cup form/hard race)
Elegant Escape (scratched)

3 for me
Rock The Kasbah
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini

valseur lido
jury duty
vintage clouds
general priciple
folsom blue

My main choice is Lake View Lad but after that (ignoring value) I would put Tiger Roll, Vintage Clouds and Rock The Casbah. Long shots are Walk in the Mill and Go Conquer.

Dounikos
Jury Duty
Anibale Fly
Tiger Roll
PairofBrownEyes
LakeViewLad

Vintage Clouds
Rathvinden
Tea for Two
Jury Duty


shortlist of 6? I only need 4

Pairofbrowneyes
Pleasant Company
Mall Dini
Dounikos
Walk In The Mill
Vintage Clouds

Really looking forward to the race, gl all.

Tea for Two is an interesting one. He was just making ground when getting rid of Lizzie in the X country at Cheltenham. Not sure his jumping is good enough but certainly one of the best handicapped in the race.

rathvinden
Vintage clouds
Lake view lad
Walk in the mill
Jury duty
Pleasant company

In no particular order
Dounikos
Singlefarmpayment
General Principle
Vintage Clouds
Walk in the Mill
Vieux Lion Rouge

Just the 3 for me:

Jury Duty
Dounikos
Walk In The Mill

My six against the field are:
Vintage Clouds (gut feeling)
Rock The Kasbah (Clash fan)
Anibale Flyer (Gaffer's sweeper pick - she has been exceptionally jammy over the years)
Step Back (form better than Rock The Kasbah)
One For Arthur (Lucinda Russell has been lucky for me in the past).
Minella Rocco (Named after Rollerball's wife!)

I watched WALK IN THE MILL win last year's Becher and apart from getting in too close to one fence, he jumped like a stag and ran on so well for pressure over the last 2 that I'm led to believe that he might be even better over this distance. 10st4 is a perfect weight for his regular pilot, James Best and I'm very grateful to those of you who laid me 36-1 only yesterday!
Joe Farrell, General Principle, Vintage Clouds, Step Back and Jury Duty would make up my 6
Tiger Roll, imo, will have to be a superhorse to win off of 11st5, having run at Cheltenham and couldn't have me at the price.

^ pretty sure you'd have to acknowledge that Tiger Roll's wining achievements to date, prove that he's a super horse !!

Vintage Clouds
Rathvinden
Rock The Kasbah
Lake View Lad
Singlefarmpayment
Ramses De Teillee

Here's a couple of facts for you FACTS, there were 16 runners in this years Gold Cup and 13 of them are rated higher than Tiger Roll, Gordon Elliott was just asked about Tiger Roll's chances in the GN and he replied, "If he wins it he'll be very special", which is more or less what I'm saying. He's very good but he's not great yet!

The time today wasn't too bad, suggests it will be at least good to soft and maybe even good b race time tomorrow. In the conditions I can't see past Rathvinden winning this. If the ground was soft there would be dangers at the bottom of the handicap.

Rathvinden
Monbeg Notorious

and that's probably about it.

Driver2

Horses can be rated what they like in the Gold Cup. This is a totally different race.
I'm sure there were many higher rated  than Red Rum.

There will always be dangers near the bottom of the handicap if the bottom is 10st or near it as opposed to the limited handicap that Phil Smith somehow managed to contrive in his attempts to appease the wealthy owners and take centre stage himself.

My 4

Joe Farrell
Vintage Clouds
Monbeg Notorious
Noble Endeavor

ok FACTS, maybe you don't understand the rating system. The ratings that the horses had in the Gold Cup would apply to all handicaps, including the Grand National! I think you are a little ahead of yourself if by using Red Rum as an example, you are suggesting that Tiger Roll is the 2nd coming. however, if you want to use Red Rum as an example, even he couldn't give weight to a Gold Cup winner in L'Escargot who beat him 15l in 1975. Anyway, if you're backing Tiger Roll, good luck. All I'm saying is that he is far too short in a 40 runner handicap and I believe that there is better value elsewhere.

I've been seriously backing horses for profit for over 40 years, so yes, I understand ratings !!!!

I only bet in Handicaps,

I don't believe Tiger Roll is the seconded coming . But he is one of those horses that could be classed as a ' freak ' so a 2nd GN is very possible.

I agree at the current price he's no value, which is why I backed him in February at double odds.

You'll see on this thread my other 2 selections.

Good luck driver

tiger roll,rathvinden,lake view lad,ramsess de teilles,ballyoptic,singlefarmpayment.

Tiger Roll
Anibale Fly
Lake View Lad
Rathvinden
Vintage Clouds
Joe Farrel

It's official


Tiger Roll is a great horse

Couldn't agree more

Amazing horse, made it look easy!

Glad you're now a convert driver

Hi FACTS being a profitable punter I would like your opinion on something I was trialing today. I have full time work and young family commitments which means my time is very limited but betting on horses is a passion of mine.

Today I was using RPR's and matching it up against those who an RPR which exceeded their current OR. Further to this I was then further assessing the conditions they achieved these RPR'S. Course/distance/going etc. I was then looking for any reasons for improvement, e.g. a horse who had been staying on moving up in trip/lightly raced/change of trainer maybe even wind surgery depending on the yard performing it.

I was also trying to use Top speed and this is a figure I am still a little unsure how to use. I did notice pre race that whilst Apples Jade had great RPR figures over 3 miles the top speeds where relatively poor which suggested she may not yet have been fully tested in a strong paced 3 mile race. I didn't lay her but it was just an Observation. At the moment I am thinking that the top speed may indicate if a horse is better from a slow or fast pace. As most top festival handicaps are run at pace it could be a handy feature for them.

I didn't use this method on the National as I was already set on RathVinden (although I would have been pointed to Tiger Roll if I did).  The results were OKish Nestor Park drifted like a barge and pulled up, Angels breath pulled far too hard before managing third. Ornua won well, Oldgrangewood managed a place as did this time next year so a lot were hitting the post.

Obviously there are other factors in play such as a horse may have improved a lot but not ran at that type of track since the improvement.

Do you think I could be profitable using the RPR and time speed figures as a guide? Or should I give up the ghost and concentrate on another hobby?

I'd give up if I were you

Thank you for replying.

I thought that since I would never have enough time to watch a lot of races then maybe I could use ratings that other people have compiled as a starting point. Only other option is to specialise in certain types of races and watch all those races. The problem I have here is that I don't want to spend all time on it if I still can't win afterwards.

I guess Ill just concentrate on Cheltenham and Aintree until the children are older and then I'll have another go. Is the key just watching and assessing as many races as you can?

GCW

I specialise.Discipline in bet selection and money management is vital
I only bet in Handicap races  only. Class 1 or 2 only. Mainly at Group 1 racecourses.
Bet only if key indicator rules apply.
I Look for winning form, weight carried and on the Flat ,CD winners and penalty carriers over sprint distances.
Look for selections with prices range 5/1 - 10/1
I only bet level stake win only.
A seperate Racing bank, big enough to cover at least a LLR of 50 is essential

I don't use ratings/speed figs.
I don't use race watching to select bets. Just the race on the card, usually day before.
A bet on a selection if ' boxes are ticked '  - no bet if not.



Just an indication of my methodology, developed over many many years of ups and downs.
Hope it helps.

Nothing like being honest Facts

GCW ...... "but betting on horses is a passion of mine"

That is an interesting statement,one I and many punters through the ages,can understand.

"I don,t want to spend all time on it if I still can,t win afterwards"

You have almost answered that one yourself,one surely can only follow the other.

As for ratings,settle on one you trust,OR would be my choice as a baseline only.

Finding a beast that you think is under-estimated is fair enough,but only part of the puzzle.

The advent of exchanges has changed the goalposts for every serious punter.

Just a quick look at the money traded on here,compared to the prizemoney for the lower grade stuff,might lead you in a certain direction.

If you only bet at the two meetings you mention,you would have a headstart on many around you.

Simply put,there are no shortcuts,but concentrating on a type, or grade of racing,can only benefit you in the short term.

That family point is hugely important,like all hobbies it,s a juggling act,one means nothing,the other everything.

Your last sentence above is on the right lines,how you can use that assessment is another story itself.

Acknowledging you want to improve is a huge positive,it took me 30 yrs to admit that to myself.

Across the table sit some of the sharpest minds on the planet,thats the bottom line for all of us.

Whatever you decide,best of luck.

Oopps.....Sorry Facts,did not see your reply.I will gracefully retire from proceedings

Lol ! No need to noc. It's good to share thoughts, ideas  and suggestions

When I say it is a passion of mine, I mean I love going through the race card and trying to solve the puzzle. I could get up any time of the day and start doing it. I don't need to motivate myself as I love to do it and I always hear that you should always concentrate on what you love to do.

However I am in a place where I want to improve the life of my family so in my spare time I have been self studying accountancy which is OK and I do enjoy it once I'm into it but I don't have the same love for it as I do for racing but I figure if I study it enough surely at some point I'll be in a good position to increase my income. I've never been around anyone who consistently makes money from racing and I appreciate the advice of people who do because it points me into the direction of what I should be looking for. You can see why I wouldn't want to put all my time into it only to fail anyway when I could have been doing something else.

The happy medium for me would to be look at one race on a Saturday and decide if there is a bet there for me or not and paper trial it. This way I don't put all my time into it and get some indication of whether I can consistently win. I will put my all effort into that race but leave others alone entirely. The difficult part will be putting the effort in then choosing no bet.

Thank you both for your advice it has been a big help.

yes

Early days but ,

O K Corral
Traffic Fluide
Hogans Height
Definitly Red
Saint Xavier
Class Conti