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re shantou flyer, I am prepared to accept on the balance of his form that the horse just was not right last year (had a hard race when 2nd to cue card at ascot) and the poor form spilled over in to the start of this ssn
but the horse is flying now, has a series of excellent hcap chase lines of form at cheltenham and importantly he will get his ground he is the most interesting runner in the line up at the big prices imo |
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still in the topham
seen it run several times and won once frankly dissapointed didnt think hed get the 4 m at cheltenham so you might be right mate not sure about the trained though |
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* trainer
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I’ll be absolutely gutted if Vintage Clouds doesn’t make it.
I’m finding it extremely hard to find horses that match my selection criteria. I’m currently left with Milansbar, and if soft or worse Raz de Maree. Given the nature of the National with the chance of bad luck, interference and being brought down I’d prefer another couple of strings to my bow and I can only do that if I conveniently overlook a couple of issues. These would be Baie des Iles (age) and Houblon Des Obeaux (current form). Of the higher weights and favs I could only have Tiger Roll but the price is too short for me If VC does make it I will be happy to settle for him and Milansbar with a saver on Raz De Maree on soft |
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It is difficuly.
I layed Baie des Iles on the 7 year old stat but shes been smashed in. As you say hits most other stats but has she got the stamina at a young age. |
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My shortlist so far is a mixed bag og backs and lays.
the backs are: tiger roll Anibale fly. Lays. Bair des Iles double ross minella daddy. |
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And endless there is a huge drift on Baie or she does not get entered im
pretty much stuck with that lay. |
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bexley imo if its soft you need to have more than a saver on Raz de Maree
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Shantou Flyer I believe swallowed it's tongue last year.
Carlingford Lough assuming the poor form was a deliberate ploy to get weight off. He has won off what seemed like terrible form in the past. I Just Know |
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I think the trainer summed Raz up nicely on an ATR news item in that he can get detached at the start and needs it very soft to slow them down. I don’t like my runners at the back of the field in the National, it’s kind of asking for trouble as you have to avoid all the trouble occurring in front of you.
However looking at his runs when second in the Welsh National and when winning it clear to see if he’s anywhere near in the mix with say 3 to go then there is unlikely to be a stouter stayer in the line up Been toying with the idea of backing him in running as if as likely he is well behind on the first circuit his price should be much higher than it’s currently trading |
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I also must admit to having 18 horses green on the ante post market here as I have been trading it for months. I only have 4 or 5 significant greens and the rest win me a couple of hundred. The ones that are red are those I can’t picture winning at all and that includes most of the front of the market. In all honesty I can’t see Minella Rocco, Blaklion or The Last Samurai figuring at all because of the weight and Total Recall and Anibale Fly would be 33/1 shots in my book :)
Sadly for for there supporters I’m not a bookie however If as usual the family come looking for tips then I can only see the 2 or 3 solid each way chances I have mentioned on here |
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bexley have a look at his previous 8th in the race on good ground Condon had basically dropped his hands between the last 2 and he was 18th jumping the last he then passes 10 horses on the run-in and is running on very strongly-makes you wonder where he would have finished if he had been ridden out earlier
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I sense you really fancy him sewter!!
Will have a look. The video of his second to Native River is also amazing for how much he is running on at the end |
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exactly I was going to compare how he was running on in the 2 races!!
yes very strongly fancy him nearly all of the "experts" have totally disregarded him due to his age and haven't actually looked at the form if he was 9 or 10 he would be 20/1 or less |
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my book is very similar to yours and yes i want Vintage Clouds to run too
I also made sure that Houblon des Obeaux was green especially with VWs horses suddenly sparking. Like you dont really fancy any of thge market leaders. However, I was impressed by Anibale Fly when it won in Ireland before confirming that in the Gold cup-he is undoudtedly well treated but cant get his really bad Leopardstown fall out of my head |
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I backed Houblon at Newcastle 2 races back where I strongly fancied it and had tipped it to a few friends and it didn’t go a yard
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Crap half of my reply didn’t get posted for some reason . I meant to say I can forgive him that as Milansbar did that in the Welsh National and then bounced back straight after. The positives are still there for Houblon, well weighted, top handicap form, stout stayer and will handle the ground
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Just had an each way bet on Raz de Maree limited to £2.50 stakes. They are running scared Sewter
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Two I like are Seeyouatmidnight who missed the festival and has obviously been targeted solely for this, you could see him getting into a rhythm out in front much like the Scottish national where I thought he got home well enough without having quite enough on the day.
The other is The Duthcman who is unexposed and could be on a pretty good mark, he was a very impressive winner on bad ground at Haydock before god knows what happened the next time he pulled up there, although he wouldn't have wanted to be going up anymore anyhow!! We all know that Haydock is a law unto itself but if it could be replicated elsewhere you would surely suggest that Aintree on soft or worse ground might do it. Both these horses race close to the pace which I think will be the best place to be in the prevailing conditions. |
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yep Bexley all the 50s and most of the 40s gone now-only Coral going 40/1- cant think that will last long
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My selection of Baie Des Iles appears to have caused a massive hit in the price today ......
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Followed the GN long enough now to know money doesn't make anything win and you always get horses that are false prices especially greys and the ones ridden by females. Milansbar will shorten as well.
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Agreed Bindaree , I expected the horses ridden by women to shrink in price , but thought it would be after tv coverage of them on Friday and Saturday .
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Unless Pleasant Company is a late scratching where Baie Des Iles finishes Pleasant Company ought to be infront, all things being equal, surely?
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I know you like Baie Des Iles but I do think some are exaggerating it's so-called staying prowess. I've looked at a few races and quite frankly I don't see it finishing strongly. In it's last race it was left for dead from the last and wouldn't even have been 3rd in another furlong.
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Milansbar
Chase The Spud Tiger Roll Vieux Lion Rouge Vintage Clouds Captain Redbeard Let's hope all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound. That will be the best result of all |
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Makybe...couldn't agree more with comments hoping they all come back.
My 6 hopefuls; I Just Know Final Nudge Malinsbar Ucello Conti Tiger Roll Saint Are (ground against him now but have to do him as he has won me some decent money in this race in 2015 and 17) |
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Final Nudge, 65 on here. I think Heavy will feature in the going on Saturday & that'll suit this fella. 13lds better off with Raz de Maree & 3lb better with my other fancy Vintage Clouds in the Welsh.
He was going well when he tipped up 2 out at Uttoxeter last year with 11 8 to lump round so the trip should hold no fear. The jockey has won around here, 9 year old, 10 5 to carry. Ticks enough boxes for me. |
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I looked at Saint Are after seeing a rerun of last year but his OR has been left the same as then despite being a year older and done nothing since.
After all the rain I am now looking at The Dutchman and Milansbar at lower weights as my 2 likely bets but I prefer to wait until the final decs. before parting with any money. |
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Had a look at Final Nudge yesterday. In the Uttoxeter race it tipped up 4 out and was just starting to be pushed along. In the Welsh Nat and it's last race it just didn't look like it had the reserves of stamina required to me.
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You're right it was 4 out at Uttoxeter but for me was going the best, admittedly there long way to go. He wasn't gaining nor going backwards at Chepstow, the 15lbs less here swings it for me.
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I'm adding Carlingford Lough to my shortlist.
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anibale fly..best formin race and likes going
alpha des obeaux has a touch of class on a going day ucello conti master trainer at readying one Shantou flyer been running well all season I just know looks laid out for the race cant have tiger roll.seeyouatmidnight,baie des iles or capt redbeard at any prices |
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Furthermore to my earlier post, already got 69/1 The Last Samuri but at this stage, couldn't resist a top up at 27/1 with Laddies boost!
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Hope that was 27/1 for it to make it further than one circuit?
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Why only one circuit. Wasn't it runner-up last year?
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Tongue in cheek of course but I don’t fancy it at all.
He was 16th last year with and he only has 2 lbs less to lug round this time. Maybe you are referring to his 2nd to Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season over shorter and I believe both of them are badly handicapped now. Or more likely his second in the race 2 years ago off a 10 lb lower mark |
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10lb not the be all and end all. Depends how they jump!
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The Three Ladies, The Gas Line Boy,Alpha Des Obeaux, and Carlingford Lough...
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Applying the following criteria:
Minimum prep runs 4+ Proven over 3m 2f+ Form in soft or worse Form in large fields Carrying less than 11 stone Age 9+ You end up with 1 Raz de Maree 2 Houblon des obeaux 3 Milansbar 4 Final Nudge 5 Thunder and roses 6 Double Ross |