zerohype

Hi everyone,

Sorry I just never checked if my tip was in play!  Man alive what a lame mistake, sorry about that!  So if you've followed me, and luckily not many people viewed this blog post, but if you have I do apologise and fingers crossed we see over 2.5 goals in this match!

Can't believe it, that's what happens when I blog too late at night. I promise it will never happen again!

Good Luck!

Hi,

Today's selection is something a little different than usual, as we are trading in the under 2.5 goals market.  I may have a usual TEAM LAY selection later on, I'm just waiting for some markets to settle.

English Championship

Leeds v Doncaster

Lay Under 2.5 Goals @2.30.  Try to get the best possible price of course, but I wouldn't lay any higher than 3.00.

We are simply looking to trade off for a nice green up when a team scores, which I think will be Leeds.  I will be taking the early profit and predict an early goal, or at least in the first half.  So the odds should shoot up somewhere between 20 - 60% original profit for a trade off at odds of 3.00 upwards.  If the odds don't move within this profit threshold, I will be waiting for another goal.  With the weight of opinions in this game I'd expect it to move above 4.00, if a goals scored in the first 25 mins.  All in all though, I can see this one going over 2.5 goals anyway, if it goes to the wire that is regarding a trade off.

You can get insurance on the 0-0 correct score market.  Should the game remain 0-0 up until 45 to 60 mins, you will be able to trade off and reduce your liability on the under 2.5 lay. It will reduce profit on this should a goal go in before you manage to trade off the 0-0 correct score, but it could also boost profits if you say trade off the 0-0 at half time, and the second half is goals galore, you will get both.  Alternatively you could always leave the 0-0 on until around 85 mins plus and make a profit still, by trading off the 0-0 then, cancelling out liability on the under 2.5.  Timing obviously depends on how you distribute your safety money against profit.   

So if you're looking for extra safety on this trade, I thought I'd mention the 0-0 odds are currently 18.5 in the correct score market.  So you won't need much safety to cover the under 2.5 lay.

Given the low odds of the initial under 2.5 goals lay itself, we should get equal profits in comparison to how we usually trade on teams.

Kick Off 3pm GMT

Analysis

Leeds United Bradley Johnson will return from suspension.  Davide Somma returned to the starting line-up alongside Luciano Becchio up front at Swansea last weekend. Paul Connolly remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, along with attacking midfielder Lloyd Samso. Otherwise they are looking strong.  Their home record reads W8D5L4, with 35 scored 29 conceded. They are far and away the leading scorers in the championship both home and away, but leak goals as they just play their own game but are confident about scoring more.

Doncaster away record reads W4D4L9, with 24 scored and 36 conceded. Donny's leading goalscorer Billy Sharp is an injury concern.  They could also be without on-loan Blackpool striker Jason Euell, due to a knee injury which kept him out on Tuesday night. James Hayter, is expected to make a timely return to the squad though, after being sidelined since early February with a calf injury.  Attacking midfielder James Coppinger and Ryan Mason could give the team a boost. 

If you take the combined goals scored all season between Leeds and Donny, the goal average is 3.28 a game between the two teams.  So I think it looks like a lively game, and the way we are playing it, that suits us fine.

I've sent my members a selection today also, so don't forget to check your email.

Good luck whatever you're trading or punting!
       

Hi All,

Well as you can see from the heading, I've no selections today.  I will definitely have some for the weekend, and maybe tomorrow if you check back, but I have to go and do domestic things today, which is my idea of hell!


I hope you have a great day trading or punting!

Well that was a nail biting finish if you decided to stay on the selection until the end.  Stoke controlled the first half, and in the second got the goal all their hard work deserved.  Predictably enough from a set piece! 

West Brom to their credit came to the Britannia fighting, and equalized in the 85th minute from what was obviously an offside position, and then somehow failed to score a winner.  With Stokes keeper keeping the ball out the net with 3 amazing saves.

My prediction, Stoke to Win or Draw.  Final score 1-1, which is great news for us. - WIN!

I'm emailing my personal members a value selection right now, but I may have another Betfair blog tip later this afternoon.  So check back in a couple of hours. 

As I'm tipping these selections to trade off, I need to separate the Win/Loss ratio of tips we trade off, and ones we leave until the end.  Gong forward, if you can trade off according to what I'm advising you to do, then it's a win.  I know other bloggers count these as wins, so going forward it's up to you if you punt a tip until the end of play, but if I'm out and green, it's a definite win for us.

I got some funny stressed out emails from people with their hearts in their mouths last night and this morning, all had decided to leave the bet until the end, so when West Brom equalized and looked good for the winner they were sweating.  At the sort of value you could take to lock in profits on this tip, and other tips I've posted, if a goal goes in your favour and the value is there, I always trade off.  It makes life a lot simpler!

My bank management and rules are simple, I use 5% of bank each trade.  As in, the liability is the 5%.  If the favoured team goes ahead or the game drifts on for a draw long enough for both teams prices to move right out, I trade off when the profit margin hits between 60% upwards, and take the green screen. 

If I have no opportunity to trade off for this % profit, I leave it until the end, and either gain maximum profit on the draw, or take a hit if it goes against me.

In order for this to work my strike rate must be high, given that I am laying them initially.  So the selections I make are usually strongly fancied home teams, only with good value on the away team. In over 70% of games the favoured team goes ahead at some point, or in over 80% of occasions the tip actually wins anyway.  So this improves your strike rate significantly, giving you many opportunities to trade off before the end, and take the early guaranteed profit. 

Twice this year I've had losing tips, out of 36 tips between my members and free tips we have 34 winners, but in both losing games the favoured team went ahead.  Yes they lost the game, but I had traded off and locked in a profit.  Last night in the Stoke v West Brom match, people were on the edge of their seat in the last 10 mins, but I wasn't as I'd locked in profits and had no liability.

So, I thought I'd explain how I play these tips.  Any feedback is welcomed, and I hope you see the value of trading off.  These tips are selected to WIN, and in most cases they do, so the choice is yours.  I will record both outcomes going forward, and we can assess the results of games we have traded off compared to how it goes if we leave until the end.  I may end up changing my mind at the end of the year, although I doubt it! ;o)

Thanks.

I've just traded off for 27.  You can probably get better now to green up nicely!

Cheers

Hi,

Well it's the last day of the month, and I'm hoping this tip will make it 10 out of 10 Betfair blog wins to end a very profitable February.  In my opinion this should be the case, and we will hopefully be able to trade off before the end of play to lock in profits.

Stoke v West Brom

English Premier League

Kick Off 8pm GMT

Lay West Brom away to Stoke @4.8.  This may drift out, or even move in, but don't lay any higher than 6.

Analysis

Stoke are very strong at the Britania and West Brom don't travel well. I expect a home win or draw, but with more than one goal scored!  Roy Hodgson is now in charge of West Brom, who in my opinion isn't what you would call an away win specialist. When in charge of Fulham and Liverpool, both really struggled with away form. West Brom's away record reads W2D2L9, scoring 13 but conceding 29.  They are 5 games since a win, and in all competitions their away record reads they have a run of 7 losses, scoring just one goal.

Stoke are the team to give West Brom a good humping. They fight, scrap and bully their way to goals and points.  Stoke seem to love playing West Brom, only losing 4 times out of 38 fixtures at Stoke, so hopefully history will repeat itself today!

What I find interesting about this game is West Brom's set piece record, they are hopeless at defending them, whereas Stoke are set piece experts. A lot of Stoke's goals come from set pieces, so this should cause some danger around the West Brom goal. Stoke's home form reads W7D2L4, scoring 19 and conceding 14, and are undefeated since the end of last year.  They have been up and down this season, but played really well against Arsenal last week, losing by only a goal to nil.

So I think Stoke should be in good mental and physical shape for this one, and West Brom surely must be very low in confidence.  Stoke to Win or Draw this game.

Remember, if the home team goes ahead at any point in the game, and you can make around 60 to 70% original profit by hitting the hedge button, then I recommend trading off and locking in guaranteed profits.  This is what I will be doing given the opportunity, and has meant out of all 35 games I've traded this year I've been able to go green in all of them.  It's up to you of course, and I have no reason to think West Brom will win if you stay on until the end.  I just prefer to trade and keep growing my bank at every opportunity.

Good luck today whatever you're trading or having a punt on!

Hi,

Predicted, Sporting Gijon Win or Draw - WIN!

Our selection yesterday Sporting Gijon, controlled the game in 0-0 draw with Zaragoza. They will regret the fact they didn't win, but a draw made it another win for us. I did trade off this game when the profit became too irresistible and virtually a 100% of original profit, but if you stayed on until the end, well done!

I'm feeling a little sluggish today if I'm honest, so I've decided to leave it, but I should have a selection for tomorrow.

I hope you have a great Sunday, and good luck whatever your trading or punting!

Cheers

I've got matched at 11!

Nice!

Hi,

My Football Lay Selection 26/2/11

Spain Primera Liga

Sporting Gijon v Real Zaragoza.  Lay Real Zaragoza @4.4.  It may drift out, but anywhere between 4 and 5 is value.  Never go higher than 6.0.

Kick off: 5pm GMT

Analysis

Real Zaragoza have been to the bottom of the table, but did get on a decent run lifting them up the league.  This is long forgotten as they have now dropped to 18th.  It's the away record of Zaragoza which makes this game appealing.

With a record of, W1D5L5, only scoring 7 away goals all season and conceding 15, gives me the feeling the confidence may be low.  Hercules grabbed a victory against them, scoring 2 very late goals, and then they lost at home to Athletico Madrid.

Sporting should be high in confidence after 2 excellent draws against Barca and Valencia, where they only conceded one goal in the 2 games. Their home form reads W4D4L4, scoring 14 and conceding 13. So they are fairly hard to beat.

I Wouldn't expect a lot of goals, so a correct score dutch may also be a good option for this, but Sporting should Win or Draw.

As always, if the home team goes ahead at any point in the game, and you can make around 60 to 70% original profit by hitting the hedge button, then I recommend trading off.

I hope you all have a great day with all your bets and trades.  I should have another tip up for Sunday so check back, or maybe later today for the evening games.

Good Luck!

Hi,

Firstly thank you to Betfair for featuring my blog on the main home page today, very grateful indeed, it's good to be appreciated.  I'll do my best to continue supplying winning selections.

Which brings me on to today.  I've been over the markets on today's games, and I've decided the best course of action is to swerve it completely.  We have enough quality football over the weekend to focus on making us a profit, and for the sake of just having a punt today which could possibly start the weekend playing catch up, I think it's best to wait it out.  To be honest, Friday is never the best day for football anyway as you no doubt already know.

I will post a tip for tomorrow either late tonight, possibly the early hours, or early tomorrow morning for the afternoon/eve's games.

Thanks again for following, and good luck today if you're having a punt!