zerohype

Hi,

Today's selection is something a little different than usual, as we are trading in the under 2.5 goals market.  I may have a usual TEAM LAY selection later on, I'm just waiting for some markets to settle.

English Championship

Leeds v Doncaster

Lay Under 2.5 Goals @2.30.  Try to get the best possible price of course, but I wouldn't lay any higher than 3.00.

We are simply looking to trade off for a nice green up when a team scores, which I think will be Leeds.  I will be taking the early profit and predict an early goal, or at least in the first half.  So the odds should shoot up somewhere between 20 - 60% original profit for a trade off at odds of 3.00 upwards.  If the odds don't move within this profit threshold, I will be waiting for another goal.  With the weight of opinions in this game I'd expect it to move above 4.00, if a goals scored in the first 25 mins.  All in all though, I can see this one going over 2.5 goals anyway, if it goes to the wire that is regarding a trade off.

You can get insurance on the 0-0 correct score market.  Should the game remain 0-0 up until 45 to 60 mins, you will be able to trade off and reduce your liability on the under 2.5 lay. It will reduce profit on this should a goal go in before you manage to trade off the 0-0 correct score, but it could also boost profits if you say trade off the 0-0 at half time, and the second half is goals galore, you will get both.  Alternatively you could always leave the 0-0 on until around 85 mins plus and make a profit still, by trading off the 0-0 then, cancelling out liability on the under 2.5.  Timing obviously depends on how you distribute your safety money against profit.   

So if you're looking for extra safety on this trade, I thought I'd mention the 0-0 odds are currently 18.5 in the correct score market.  So you won't need much safety to cover the under 2.5 lay.

Given the low odds of the initial under 2.5 goals lay itself, we should get equal profits in comparison to how we usually trade on teams.

Kick Off 3pm GMT

Analysis

Leeds United Bradley Johnson will return from suspension.  Davide Somma returned to the starting line-up alongside Luciano Becchio up front at Swansea last weekend. Paul Connolly remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, along with attacking midfielder Lloyd Samso. Otherwise they are looking strong.  Their home record reads W8D5L4, with 35 scored 29 conceded. They are far and away the leading scorers in the championship both home and away, but leak goals as they just play their own game but are confident about scoring more.

Doncaster away record reads W4D4L9, with 24 scored and 36 conceded. Donny's leading goalscorer Billy Sharp is an injury concern.  They could also be without on-loan Blackpool striker Jason Euell, due to a knee injury which kept him out on Tuesday night. James Hayter, is expected to make a timely return to the squad though, after being sidelined since early February with a calf injury.  Attacking midfielder James Coppinger and Ryan Mason could give the team a boost. 

If you take the combined goals scored all season between Leeds and Donny, the goal average is 3.28 a game between the two teams.  So I think it looks like a lively game, and the way we are playing it, that suits us fine.

I've sent my members a selection today also, so don't forget to check your email.

Good luck whatever you're trading or punting!