Well that was a nail biting finish if you decided to stay on the selection until the end. Stoke controlled the first half, and in the second got the goal all their hard work deserved. Predictably enough from a set piece!
West Brom to their credit came to the Britannia fighting, and equalized in the 85th minute from what was obviously an offside position, and then somehow failed to score a winner. With Stokes keeper keeping the ball out the net with 3 amazing saves.
My prediction, Stoke to Win or Draw. Final score 1-1, which is great news for us. - WIN!
I'm emailing my personal members a value selection right now, but I may have another Betfair blog tip later this afternoon. So check back in a couple of hours.
As I'm tipping these selections to trade off, I need to separate the Win/Loss ratio of tips we trade off, and ones we leave until the end. Gong forward, if you can trade off according to what I'm advising you to do, then it's a win. I know other bloggers count these as wins, so going forward it's up to you if you punt a tip until the end of play, but if I'm out and green, it's a definite win for us.
I got some funny stressed out emails from people with their hearts in their mouths last night and this morning, all had decided to leave the bet until the end, so when West Brom equalized and looked good for the winner they were sweating. At the sort of value you could take to lock in profits on this tip, and other tips I've posted, if a goal goes in your favour and the value is there, I always trade off. It makes life a lot simpler!
My bank management and rules are simple, I use 5% of bank each trade. As in, the liability is the 5%. If the favoured team goes ahead or the game drifts on for a draw long enough for both teams prices to move right out, I trade off when the profit margin hits between 60% upwards, and take the green screen.
If I have no opportunity to trade off for this % profit, I leave it until the end, and either gain maximum profit on the draw, or take a hit if it goes against me.
In order for this to work my strike rate must be high, given that I am laying them initially. So the selections I make are usually strongly fancied home teams, only with good value on the away team. In over 70% of games the favoured team goes ahead at some point, or in over 80% of occasions the tip actually wins anyway. So this improves your strike rate significantly, giving you many opportunities to trade off before the end, and take the early guaranteed profit.
Twice this year I've had losing tips, out of 36 tips between my members and free tips we have 34 winners, but in both losing games the favoured team went ahead. Yes they lost the game, but I had traded off and locked in a profit. Last night in the Stoke v West Brom match, people were on the edge of their seat in the last 10 mins, but I wasn't as I'd locked in profits and had no liability.
So, I thought I'd explain how I play these tips. Any feedback is welcomed, and I hope you see the value of trading off. These tips are selected to WIN, and in most cases they do, so the choice is yours. I will record both outcomes going forward, and we can assess the results of games we have traded off compared to how it goes if we leave until the end. I may end up changing my mind at the end of the year, although I doubt it! ;o)
Thanks.
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zerohype
Comments: 10
Keep the tips coming zerohype, we are all grateful! In regard to your bank management, are you seeing a healthy increase in overall bank balance if your liability is 5%, surely your maximum profits are around 1.5% (of your balance)(presuming your laying at around 4.5) and then your expected profits when you go all green are around 70% of this, say 1% and so surely your only seeing a 1% increase in account balance with every bet?
Also for those who are increasing risk by staying on till then end, do you think they would see a better profit for a similar risk by backing the home team (i.e Stoke) and trading off when they go ahead at any point.
Well done by the way mate, excellent tipping!
Also for those who are increasing risk by staying on till then end, do you think they would see a better profit for a similar risk by backing the home team (i.e Stoke) and trading off when they go ahead at any point.
Well done by the way mate, excellent tipping!
Thanks for the positive feedback, much appreciated! If I make 1% on my overall balance each time I trade, then I'm pleased with that for sure. As anybody knows, at that rate of growth you don't need long before the amounts start to increase very quickly as we see exponential growth.
If people back the favoured team and do it that way, the only downside I see is if it stays a draw. As the profit on both teams will drift as the draw moves in, but the fancied teams price won't move out as quickly as the non favoured team you're laying. So the get off point won't be as appealing. It will work for sure as mostly the favoured team will go ahead at some point, but to restrict negative variables I personally prefer to lay the team I believe is going to lose or draw with these tips.
As long as I'm helping people make a profit though, however this information is used, I'm a happy man!
Thanks again for the comments, I hate losing so I'll do my best to keep the winners coming.
If people back the favoured team and do it that way, the only downside I see is if it stays a draw. As the profit on both teams will drift as the draw moves in, but the fancied teams price won't move out as quickly as the non favoured team you're laying. So the get off point won't be as appealing. It will work for sure as mostly the favoured team will go ahead at some point, but to restrict negative variables I personally prefer to lay the team I believe is going to lose or draw with these tips.
As long as I'm helping people make a profit though, however this information is used, I'm a happy man!
Thanks again for the comments, I hate losing so I'll do my best to keep the winners coming.
Zerohype. did you put up any selections today? I didnt see anything so I presume I didnt miss out right? There is Spanish la liga matches for today and tomorrow I thought you may have put up a tip and I had miss out on it??
Zerohype: From what I read above You risk 5% on every trade and you make 1% after you trade at 70% so that means that you need to win 5 times for every time you lose just to come out evens. This means you need to win 83,33% of the time just to come out evens and above that to make any proffit. If the strike rate ever goes down this could be very dangerous. Dont take me wrong I love your selections but I guess you really have to take your time and be sure before you make them and make sure they are rock solid before you put them up. Thanks for your hard work mate and keep it up.
I would guess that the ultimate goal of ZH's free tips are to grow is userbase of subscriptions by providing evidence that he can work. This is a fantastic way to market the service and gives people the opportunity to follow his tips and (hopefully) make a bit of money before joining up.
In reality with ZH needing a 80% success rate to break even & even higher than that to make a profit it will take evidence of many hundreds and probably thousands of his trades before anything can statically be proven about the success of his tips.
This isn't me doubting ZH's ability at all he's off to a perfect start and I have followed this blog with great interest (maybe I have even been following the tips too!!). I really respect what your doing, and I wish you every success with your further predictions going forward ;-)
In reality with ZH needing a 80% success rate to break even & even higher than that to make a profit it will take evidence of many hundreds and probably thousands of his trades before anything can statically be proven about the success of his tips.
This isn't me doubting ZH's ability at all he's off to a perfect start and I have followed this blog with great interest (maybe I have even been following the tips too!!). I really respect what your doing, and I wish you every success with your further predictions going forward ;-)
Thanks for the comments HugoBoss and stoozbet. You're both correct with your analysis on these trades, and to the ones I email to my members. Given I'm making approx 1% of my total bank each winning trade, my conversion needs to be over 80% on the year, which is how I judge myself. Last year I finished approx 86% for just laying and leaving them, and 93% if you traded them when the profit exceeding 60% original amount. I put lots of analysis into them, as any trader knows you spend at least 80% of the time researching and 20% actually trading.
I hope I convert a few people to trading these selections, as opposed to just punting, even though you can make a great profit just laying them, you make more in the long run trading. Last night was a prime example. I traded Mallorca away to Espanyol, which given the stats looked a good lay bet but even better trade. Espanyol went ahead as predicted but after a tricky start, so I backed Mallorca at 10 after laying them at 3.75, making a comfortable 60%. Then emailed my members to do the same with loads of time to get off the trade.
Late in the second half the game had turned and was 1-2 Mallorca. I was out and greened up, as where my members, some for about 88% original profit. As I never get as good a price as blog followers or members, as I get matched then email. So this is a great example of why it's best to trade off. The home team in my selections will typically go ahead at some point, so there is your exit.
So this makes it 37 in a row successful trades for me, 34 out 37 winning lay tips on the year.
You're also correct that blogging on Betfair will attract people to hopefully follow my selections and take an interest in what I do on my website, I mean what a great platform to prove what I do is effective and hopefully get some new members. I mean we all have to **** ourselves in some way to earn our living in this competitive capitalist society, that's just the way it is. I'm developing many different trading tutorials and interesting systems which all have been rigorously tested and make a consistent profit. The idea is to help people looking to make a change and create more freedom in their lives. That's what living is about after all, not going the office 9-5... Oh I feel a rant coming on so I better reel myself in! lol.
The main reason I blog on here though, is because I enjoy sharing this information with like minded people and having the interaction. This is true, as I'm just a bloke who enjoys solving puzzles, and this is a huge puzzle to me I get to play with on a daily basis. It sharpens my decisions before I post, and improves my training/teaching ability on my website, so it's win win for me. I'm pretty lucky to have this forum where I share a common interest with all readers, so I'll continue to do my best with my research. As I genuinely wasn't lying in an earlier post, I hate losing! ;o)
I hope I convert a few people to trading these selections, as opposed to just punting, even though you can make a great profit just laying them, you make more in the long run trading. Last night was a prime example. I traded Mallorca away to Espanyol, which given the stats looked a good lay bet but even better trade. Espanyol went ahead as predicted but after a tricky start, so I backed Mallorca at 10 after laying them at 3.75, making a comfortable 60%. Then emailed my members to do the same with loads of time to get off the trade.
Late in the second half the game had turned and was 1-2 Mallorca. I was out and greened up, as where my members, some for about 88% original profit. As I never get as good a price as blog followers or members, as I get matched then email. So this is a great example of why it's best to trade off. The home team in my selections will typically go ahead at some point, so there is your exit.
So this makes it 37 in a row successful trades for me, 34 out 37 winning lay tips on the year.
You're also correct that blogging on Betfair will attract people to hopefully follow my selections and take an interest in what I do on my website, I mean what a great platform to prove what I do is effective and hopefully get some new members. I mean we all have to **** ourselves in some way to earn our living in this competitive capitalist society, that's just the way it is. I'm developing many different trading tutorials and interesting systems which all have been rigorously tested and make a consistent profit. The idea is to help people looking to make a change and create more freedom in their lives. That's what living is about after all, not going the office 9-5... Oh I feel a rant coming on so I better reel myself in! lol.
The main reason I blog on here though, is because I enjoy sharing this information with like minded people and having the interaction. This is true, as I'm just a bloke who enjoys solving puzzles, and this is a huge puzzle to me I get to play with on a daily basis. It sharpens my decisions before I post, and improves my training/teaching ability on my website, so it's win win for me. I'm pretty lucky to have this forum where I share a common interest with all readers, so I'll continue to do my best with my research. As I genuinely wasn't lying in an earlier post, I hate losing! ;o)
Zerohype: Thanks for your tips and your hard work mate. Im with you specially with the 9-5 damn thing I also want to quite my job and trade a few times a day and enjoy life so please keep those tips coming :) and tell me more about your service I may want to join in depending on the price and so on ? send me an email through the forum please
Hi HugoBoss, I've sent you a message on here. Cheers.
Hi there. I am new to sports betting and trying to learn as much as I can. Your blog here is the best I have seen and I have learned a lot already. Thanks. I have a couple of questions....
Do you ever "cut your losses" when the score goes against you early in the game or just let it run?
Can you automate the locking in of the 60% gain - to take away the emotion from the decision?
Once again thanks and keep up the informative blogging!
Do you ever "cut your losses" when the score goes against you early in the game or just let it run?
Can you automate the locking in of the 60% gain - to take away the emotion from the decision?
Once again thanks and keep up the informative blogging!
Having said that, i would trade off and go green ASAP. Stay sensible, don't let emotion/excitement get in the way. I always try to remember that I'm not a gambler, I'm a trader.
Well done mate, not more "Red Hot"...your "Blistering!" ;)