X Factor 2010
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Why Rebecca will win
Why Rebecca will win
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five leaves left 10 Dec 10 16:07
lol music to my ears othh. One thing is sure from all of this, is that RMB claiming we're all rampers on here is utter bull. Since othh has posted info 1D have actually shortened and Matt's price has hardly moved. If his info can't move the market, nothing anyone else writes on here can very true. my apologies. gl with your bets. think your above post is very concise too, vickers won her only week with a sympathy vote, so they are a huge swing, if becca is on post cardle then I think you've got every chance, tis only money, will be a good coup if it comes off. |
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A massive negative for us Cardie bettors are the fact that it's becoming wide stream knowledge that he is big favourite for the show
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Chepster; re;
Meanwhile, an X Factor insider has told Metro.co.uk that while 27-year-old Matt may be the bookies' favourite to win, he doesn't top the results list every week. 'Rebecca and One Direction have both been in the top two of the results since the beginning of the live shows,' our mole told us. top TWO not top ONE. That's not contrary to what ONTHH said at all. HE said Matt top for past 5 weeks. Lately by x2 the nearest. Read more: http://www.metro.co.uk/tv/850077-matt-cardle-and-rebecca-ferguson-neck-and-neck-for-x-factor-victory#ixzz17jVvDBIE |
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That's clearly a load of mince.
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I am sure many have noted this. So I will say it again. Matt price has drifted due to people on at high prices greening up. In fact many will have reinvested their lay money in the other runners. So Matts price is artificially high and the rest are artificially low.
There is nearly twice as much money on Matt as Rebbecca. I am not really bovvered as I have made all my moves. But market wise I would say a lot of people out there are expecting Matt to win. |
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Anyone greening up is throwing money away, imo. Why would I want to have 1D or Cher running for me. The long-shot is for Bex to turn it around, but Matt remains the value bet.
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not convinced at all by that melv. vast majority of HS bets on matt will be on at under 3/1.
however, i'm not disputing that (based on everything we've heard) his price is too big. |
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There's a desperation in parts to make the comp seem more competitive than what it is in reality.
The truth is that it's mostly dressing. Mary week 1, Cher's Stay, Grime's Mad World, bex's ramping, 1D ramping, even Waggy ffs! This has been Matt's to lose ever since his bootcamp. |
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Well said Cider.
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Cider
Yes I think Matt won this at bootcamp. With the opposition being so poor he doesn't have much to beat either. |
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A hell of a lot of confident Matt backers and he is still 5/6 against a poor field must be a banker[;)]
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Blimey. Thanks for the apology RMB.
It really is the season of goodwill  |
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Matt is not unbeatable, stroodle. However his price under-estimates his true chances, imo.
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I just find it very strange he has topped every poll by a distance as we are lead to believe, had the most itune downloads, has been fav from day one. he only has Rebecca to beat you would assume and he is still 5/6 that tells me something.
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Its also good for Matt that the pressure is on. Fans will multi-vote.
BTW this is exactly what Cowell wants. The more phone calls the more cash for the empire of the mindless. |
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The more phone calls the more cash for the empire of the mindless.
 LOL, I like that line Melv! |
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I was out of order FLL so should have apologised sooner (just too stubborn to a fault!). GL over this weekend buster, should be a cracker.
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Astute observations Melv. Anyone who has played this game long enough will be sorting out their book this week so it has the right balance...
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ttt for GB
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melv
I am sure many have noted this. So I will say it again. Matt price has drifted due to people on at high prices greening up. In fact many will have reinvested their lay money in the other runners. So Matts price is artificially high and the rest are artificially low. melv, would that not be countered by people who laid at high prices bailing out? I know several big punters who are sitting on very big greens none of whom have laid off. I think the price is being held up by concerns about his voice, song choices and (imo excessively) high expectations of Rebecca's duet. |
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i'll repeat again, vast majority of high street bets layed on matt will have been at shorter prices - certainly sub 3/1.
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apologies - just read that again. melv clearly said "high prices" not "high street" - oops!!
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This market has not been forum driven unlike most reality shows, the weekly plunges on Waggy for eviction are testament to this. From memory I was about 5% of the big brother market yet despite having a far bigger position Im far less on this market, quite simply put 80%+ of the money on this market is "mug money" whereas on other markets its a far lower figure.
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It's the Grand National/Derby once a yearers JO [;)]
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JO - would these guys not be more heavily influenced by seeing that poll in the sun, and pile in on matt, or are they not even influenced by polls?!
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Yep, I suspect you're right.
We just need to keep calm and wait to collect ...and have the ocean finance number to hand if the 'mug money' is right and 1D win  |
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what's happened to all those Ocean Finance ads?
And Cash My Gold? |
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I think the elimination markets were dominated by people backing who they perceived as the worst singer in most cases Waggy but once the forum collective had had their fill of lays ( I had him for 2k weeks 1-5) the mug money because there was so much of it continued to drive the price down.
People are now backing who they think has the best voice and as such will win with for them an element of who they think tptb want Matt has 51% as such hes an even money shot in their eyes becca 30 9/4ish and Cher 6% 16/1ish these arent far away the anomally is 1 Direction where you have the Cowell effect the mug punter logic says Simon wants them to win, give their favourable treatment over the series, the reality is Simon wanted them in final no more he knows and we know they will sell singles/albums but will be rubbish live. |
