TimeformBlog

Three bets on Tuesday from Timeform's Free Form Site...


Grandeur was an encouraging second behind Nawwaar at Goodwood on his racecourse debut last month and can go one better and break his maiden at Brighton (14:30) this afternoon. The form of that Goodwood contest looks likely to prove strong, with the winner receiving several ante-post quotes for next season's Derby and the fourth home, Amazing Storm, having won subsequently, and Grandeur himself showed plenty of promise. Having taken a while to get the hang fo things, Grandeur stayed on strongly late on to pull clear with the winner despite showing greenness. This will be just his second start and he looks open to plenty of improvement.

Up at Musselburgh, Blown It can record his third victory in five starts having finished second behind Toongalooma just four days ago at Catterick. He has been thriving of late and was unlucky on Friday given his poor position early on as a result of being hampered upon leaving the stalls. He is still 5 lb below his highest winning mark in terms of handicap ratings and, given the upturn in his form since joining Keith Dalgleish in May, he can go close again this afternoon. Paul Hanagan will once again be on board, which is a positive given the winning relationship he has enjoyed with this five-year-old in recent weeks.

Chesapeake is our third and final selection today and is one who should have the quality to see off what looks to be a fairly modest field in the novice chase at Worcester (18:10). Chesapeake, under champion jockey Tony McCoy, will be looking for his second win in three starts this summer but is arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten in his novice chasing career, as a tenth fence blunder ended any chance he had of winning last time. He still finished a creditable second on that occasion and the recent employment of headgear (last four starts) seems responsible for the marked improvement he's shown. With that in mind, he should be able to improve again and win at Worcester this evening.


Recommendations:

Back Grandeur @ 1.8 in the 14:30 at Brighton
Back Blown It @ 4.3 in the 14:45 at Musselburgh
Back Chesapeake @ 2.46 in the 18:10 at Worcester


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The Ebor is the richest handicap race in Europe and the decision to stage it on a Saturday for the very first time doesn't appear to have weakened the competitiveness of this year's renewal in the slightest ,with a whole host of runners lining up with chances...


The Goodwood Cup seems the best place to start when reviewing the form for this year's Ebor, as it is responsible for a number of the contenders. Saeed bin Suroor's Lost In The Moment finished an unlucky second to Opinion Poll in that contest, having failed to regain momentum after being hampered over a furlong out, but he nonetheless stayed on strongly to finish ahead of Blue Bajan and Fox Hunt and has less weight to carry than either of that pair on Saturday, with the Ebor being an early-closing race.

Lost In The Moment progressed for the step up in trip at Goodwood, having been predominantly raced over ten furlongs this season, producing smart efforts when second at both Ascot and Chester, and when third in the John Smith's Cup behind Green Destiny and Modun at York, prior to his improved Goodwood effort.

Sir Michael Stoute's Modun heads to York with a progressive profile, having sauntered to an easy victory on his seasonal reappearance under a hands-and-heels ride. Soft ground seemed to be his undoing when flopping at Royal Ascot, but he bounced back to finish second in both the John Smith's Cup and a valuable handicap at Goodwood. Modun was in receipt of 5lb from Lost In The Moment when finishing ahead of that opponent at York and is again closely matched at the weights. A half-brother to Saptapadi and smart stayer Patkai, Modun is still relatively lightly raced and remains open to plenty of improvement, especially now upped in trip.

The aforementioned Saptapadi, who was formerly trained by Stoute but is now in the care of Brian Ellison, is another who ran in the John Smith's Cup over a trip shorter than what would appear to be his optimum. His run at York was particularly eye-catching given his wide draw and the fact he was last turning into the straight, but despite those unfavourable circumstances (which caused him to meet trouble) he ran on extremely well to finish fifth.

Saptapadi has has run in the Group 2 York Stakes, once again over ten furlongs, where he put in a career-best performance in finishing just over two lengths behind Twice Over. He has good form over further and has proved himself an accomplished stayer by finishing second in last year's Henry II Stakes and third in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, and definitely has to be considered here.

Others that make appeal include Mount Athos. Given his connections, progressive profile and the solid level of form he has produced this year, winning on his seasonal reappearance at Dundalk and producing a career best over twelve furlongs at Haydock on his penultimate start, he has to come into the reckoning.

In between those two efforts Mount Athos finished fourth, two places ahead of Blue Bajan, in the Chester Cup, where he did well given the most adverse of circumstances, dropped right out the back from the widest possible stall. He had little hope of catching the winner and the runner-up once he had been produced and was forced to make his effort five-wide, but he ran on very encouragingly nevertheless and has every chance in this and other handicaps off his current mark, acknowleding he has to put a poor effort in an Irish Group 3 behind him.

Also worth a mention is Tactician, who has made steady progress through the handicap-division for Michael Bell. All of Tactician's best form has come over fourteen furlongs and he followed up a promising seasonal reappearance at Newmarket with a C&D win at York last time, forcing the early pace and holding off Fox Hunt in the latter stages to record a one-and-a-quarter length victory. He has been upped 6lb for that effort, making his task here all the more difficult, but he is open to further improvement and, given that form line through Fox Hunt, doesn't have a great deal to find with Lost In The Moment.

In summary, it is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Modun who is the main selection here, as the step up in trip should bring about some marked improvement given his pedigree. He has every chance off what still seems a good mark, potentiallly fitting into the 'Group horse in a handicap' category.


Recommendation

Back Modun @ 8.2 in the Ebor Handicap


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Three bets to get the week started from Timeform's Free Form Site...


A couple of the fillies in the 16:00 at Kempton stand out as being unexposed, namely Junket and Swift Breeze, and of the pair it's the former that makes marginally more appeal at the odds. Junket doesn't hail from a particularly fashionable yard, but she's a well-bred filly and has shown plenty of ability in four career starts to date. She's just 2 lb higher today than when an arguably unlucky second on her handicap debut at Doncaster last autumn and simply seemed in need of the run on her reapeparance at Sandown in July, doing better in the end than looked likely for most of the race. She remains with potential to do better and has a strong chance in today's race.

Later at Kempton, Lion Court is pretty obviously the one to beat in the 17:30, being a Sir Mark Prescott handicap debutant taking a three-furlong hike in trip. He's taking a fair chunk out of the book though, and there might well be some mileage in taking him on. The one who appeals as the best option for that purpose is Cashpoint, who returns to the all-weather on a mark 3 lb below the one he last won off at Lingfield in 2010. Since that time Cashpoint has been keeping pretty good company in turf handicaps, and his efforts behind the likes of Modun and Rock A Doodle Doo off marks in the low 80s ready well in the context of today's race. He's been slightly below par the last twice, though it's easy enough to excuse both efforts, going off too hard on the first occasion and possibily finding soft ground against him at Sandown last time. Today's race represents a drop in class, while the return to polytrack and the booking of Kieran O'Neill are further positives. At around 10.0 today he's well worth chancing.

Elspeth's Boy was quite well backed ahead of his debut for William Haggas at Epsom last month, and though that money all went astray there was loads of promise in his effort, finishing with plenty more to give after simply being set too much to do. It's no real stretch of the imagination to say that Elspeth's Boy would have won that day granted a better position, so his claims off the same mark today are compelling, even without accounting for any improvement his new trainer might have already got out of him.


Recommendations

Back Junket @ 5.2 Kempton 16:00
Back Cashpoint @ 11.0 Kempton 17:30
Back Elspeth's Boy @ 3.4 Yarmouth 18:50


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The five-furlong handicap at Thirsk looks a very competitive affair. Timeform run the rule ove the field...


Oldjoesaid got back to winning ways over this C&D in May, but below par since runner-up at Ayr in June and refitted blinkers need to perk him up (ran moderately only previous try).

Magical Macey narrowly cashed in on reduced mark on AW debut at Wolverhampton (5f) in April. Mixed bag since, though better than bare result over 6f here last time and one to consider back over optimum trip.

Red Cape belatedly got back to winning ways at Newcastle (5f) in July. Disappointing he was unable to build on that last time, though, and others more reliable these days.

Walvis Bay has been a mixed bag since landing a gamble at Ripon (5f) a year ago. Looked short of peak fitness in 2 starts this season, so 8-week break since last run a concern and stall 1 probably no help.

Invincible Lad hasn't gone on from promising third for new yard at Ripon in April, but easing in the weights as a result and didn't fare too badly on return from a break at Goodwood last time.

Nadeen improved when landing 5f Musselburgh handicap on reappearance in April. 3 lb lower now, but can't be supported with any confidence given his modest achievements since.

Mayoman wore headgear when winning 4 of 8 starts in 2010 (including over C&D). Gradually working way back to form, catching the eye after meeting trouble last time and visor back in place now.

Haajes landed big-field 5f handicap at York in October. More like old self for first time this year when second off this mark at Beverley recently and solid claims if continuing resurgence.

Mey Blossom is a hold-up handicapper who was better than ever when scoring 4 times in 2010 (including twice over C&D). Little to get excited about this time round, though, and not difficult to look elsewhere.

Go Go Green was back in good heart third time up for this yard when third at Ayr (5f) in June, but took a backward step at Hamilton later the same month and hard to know what to expect now.

Boogie Waltzer is a front runner who landed 5 sprint handicaps in 2010. Back to near best last 4 starts, blindfold removed late when fifth at Goodwood last month and possible he could be in the mix again.

Stratton Banker was back on the up returned to 5f when going in again at Kempton in January. Well below par over this C&D 4 months later and given another break since. Market often best guide with this yard.

Captain Scooby is a hold-up handicapper who won twice in 2010. Back to near best in cheekpieces when third at Beverley last month, but that aid quickly dispensed with now.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Haajes
2. Mayoman
3. Boogie Waltzer

Timeform View: Haajes has taken a while to find his feet this year, but is well treated as a result and shaped as if his winning turn wasn't far away when second at Beverley last week. Mayoman and Boogie Waltzer complete the shortlist.


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Three bets for Saturday from Timeform's Free Form Site...


The Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury (15:05) is potentially more interesting than most recent renewals of the race on a account of a handful of St Leger-bound three-year-olds showing up to take their chance against the older horses. The likes of Brown Panther and Census are both afforded plenty of respect, but the fact is that they're going to have to improve to overhaul some of the older horses, the pick of whom is the filly Meeznah. Meeznah rather lost her way after finishing second past the post in last year's Oaks, but she's got right back on track recently and her win in the Lillie Langtry at Glorious Goodwood at the end of last month marked her down as a potentially high-class performer. The form of that race looks strong, backed up by a good timefigure, and suggests Meeznah is well up to coming out on top against the males today. At around the 6.0 mark it's well worth siding with her form in the book against the potential of some of the three-year-olds.

Korngold looked a typical John Dunlop handicap project after three spins in maidens towards the end of last season, but it took him the same number of runs this time round for him to prove himself ahead of his mark, the combination of softish ground and a mile and a half proving right up his street at Chepstow last month. That race perhaps wasn't much of a contest against an exposed bunch of older horses and Korngold undoubtedly faces a stiffer task against his own generation at Ripon today (15:45), but there's every reason to believe a 6 lb rise for his win is lenient, particularly judged on how smoothly he went through the race. Anything around the 2.7 mark looks worth taking today.

The John Quinn-trained Veiled Applause has been around for a long time now, and throughout his career he's done all his winning over a mile and a mile and a quarter. Almost every time he's been tried over a mile and a half he's shaped like a non-stayer, including at Doncaster on his most recent start. The encouraging thing about that run was how well Veiled Applause travelled before his stamina gave way, and he stands out back over a mile and a quarter at the same track today (18:00). The case for Veiled Applause from a handicapping point of view is obvious. He came back this year with two good placed efforts in handicaps over today's course and distance, off marks of 82 and 83. Since then he has been mostly running over the wrong trip, and his mark has come down to 71 as a result. This is a well-handicapped, in-form horse with conditions to suit, and he looks a standout bet at around 4.4.


Recommendations

Back Meeznah @ 5.8 Newbury 15:05
Back Korngold @ 2.68 Ripon 17:45
Back Veiled Applause @ 4.4 Doncaster 18:00


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Timeform go through the runners for the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes...


All The Aces was a smart performer for Michael Jarvis in 2009, winning listed race at Newmarket. Shaped as if retaining all his ability on return from a lengthy absence at Sandown last month, and respected.

Alwaary was progressive in 2009, winning listed race at Goodwood and fourth in King George at Ascot. Nowhere near that level in 2 starts last year and never involved when down the field on return.

Chilberta King is a front runner who was successful in 1¾m handicap prior to taking step up to listed level in his stride at Sandown (2m) last month. Not discredited in Goodwood Cup, but this too sharp.

Claremont is not the easiest of rides but managed to win a listed race at Meydan early in the year from Opinion Poll. Disappointing when last seen there in March, and visor back on for usual blinkers.

Mores Wells was smart at his best for Kevin Prendergast but lost his way before move to France. Managed to win a listed race at Lyon Parilly in June but well held by Times Up last time, and tongue tied now.

Times Up has continued on the upgrade this year, capturing a 1½m Newmarket handicap before taking listed race at York. Well ahead of Mores Wells in Group 2 at Longchamp last time, and not easily dismissed.

Meeznah is a smart filly who belatedly added to her maiden win early on at 3 yrs when landing Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time. Looks much more the finished article now, and should go well.

Brown Panther is a likeable type who has progressed rapidly through the ranks, impressing with way he took King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. Came up short in Deutsches Derby last time, but may yet do better.

Buthelezi is a tricky ride but successful in 1¼m handicap at Newmarket on return and placed all 3 starts since, including in Princess of Wales's Stakes. Well held by first 2 there, though, and needs to find more.

Census landed a maiden on final 2-y-o start and continued where he left off on reappearance in handicap here. Found Brown Panther too strong at Ascot, but excellent second last time and still progressing.

Yaseer ran fine race when third in Craven Stakes on reappearance, and bounced back from a poor run in the Dante when fourth in first-time visor in Gordon Stakes last time. Still has scope to do better.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Meeznah
2. Times Up
3. Census

Timeform View: Meeznah is finally looking the filly she promised to become in last year's Oaks, and she makes most appeal here. Times Up is respected after a good performance in France last time, while it's possible that Census will reverse Ascot form with Brown Panther and also make the frame.


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Timeform go through the runners for the listed St Hugh's Stakes...


Artistic Jewel is a half-sister to three winners who made an impressive start when winning a maiden at Windsor on debut, showing a fine turn of foot. She looked a useful prospect then and is a lively contender up in grade.

Betty Fontaine has won three of her six starts, the most recent coming at Windsor in June. She has had her limitations exposed in pattern company the last twice, and though this is easier, she looks in need of seven furlongs now.

Cockney Fire made a winning debut at Leicester in April and followed up in a four-runner minor event at Salisbury in May. That form has been boosted since and it's unlikely she'll be much out of her depth if at all.

Excellette got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a five-furlong maiden at Chester last month and then followed up in a minor event at Musselburgh. She is going the right way but this is easily her stiffest task yet.

Free Verse is a sister to the useful Quadrille. She was quickly away when winning a six-furlong maiden at Windsor last month but has plenty of stamina in her pedigree and the drop to five furlongs looks a risky move.

Kohala went close on debut and made no mistake at Redcar next time. She was fifth in the Queen May prior to finishing second in a listed race and Sandown and those efforts put her near the top of the shortlist.

Kyanight is a half-sister to three winners, notably the smart Monsieur Chevalier. Her dam was fast and this one looks it to judged on her winning debut at Sandown earlier this month. She is a sure improver.

Kylesku was a cheap yearling, but her price rose to £24,000 at the breeze-ups. She was fast away and never headed in a Pontefract maiden last month and the third has since franked the form. She is entitled to maximum respect.

Mary Fildes is a half-sister to the five-furlong winner Titus Andronicus. The yard has a fair strike rate with juveniles and she won in convincing fashion on debut at Bath last month. This is a considerably tougher task.

Miss Lahar refused to enter the stalls once and has taken a long time to get her act together but was much improved when third in the Princess Margaret and has since run away with a five-furlong maiden at Chepstow. She's dangerous to underestimate.

My Propeller created a huge impression when pulverizing the opposition at Pontefract on her second start, though the form looks nothing special. She raced too freely in the Cherry Hinton last time.

On The Dark Side had come up short after making a winning debut at Catterick in May prior to a seemingly much-improved effort in the Molecomb last time and should be thereabouts so long as that doesn't flatter her.

Piranha shaped better than the result suggested on her debut and confirmed that promise when winning her next two starts at five furlongs on polytrack. She hasn't been so good on turf again since and is biting off more than she can chew here.


Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Artistic Jewel
2. Miss Lahar
3. My Propeller

Timeform View: Miss Lahar is finally making rapid strides and seems sure to be thereabouts, as will My Propeller be if she settles better than she did in the Cherry Hinton. Kylesku is another to consider, but Artistic Jewel looked a natural for a race of this type when making a winning debut and she is taken to follow up her yard's success in this race with Electric Waves in 2010.


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David Cleary identifies the horses to note over timber in the past week with Paul Nicholls among those to have sent out a winner...


It was a quiet week on the jumping front, with just two cards staged, Newton Abbot and Worcester the venues.

There was much more of interest at Worcester, with the main talking point the decision of the stewards to reverse the placings in the novice chase. Vertige Dore passed the post a short head in front of Mad Moose but had seriously hampered his rival before the final fence.

It might look an open-and-shut case, but Mad Moose had been back on terms jumping the last with all of the run-in unimpeded to get in front but wasn't able to do so. The interference certainly cost Mad Moose more ground than he was beaten by, but that isn't the measure by which the matter is judged. The stewards need to be sure the horse hampered would definitely have won without the interference and it is surprising that they felt they were in this case. In terms of performance, this was one of the better novice chases of the summer and both Vertige Dore and Mad Moose should be placed to advantage before the better novices start appearing in the autumn.

The strongest piece of form on the Worcester card looks likely to be the three-mile handicap hurdle won by Red Not Blue, who has been performing solidly all summer, standing a lot more racing than in the past. He was another to frank the form of Westlin' Wind's race at Market Rasen in July, and other horses that did well in that should be kept on side in the coming weeks.

Of those against Red Not Blue at Worcester, Benmadigan looked an interesting runner, stepped up to three miles, but he failed to see the race out fully, while shaping as if in decent form in taking third. There will be lesser races for him to contest and a win over slightly shorter should be possible.

Fourth home Ely Brown ran a much better race than of late, getting back to the form he showed when winning here in May. He clearly goes well on this track and would be more than good enough to win a novice under a penalty on this showing.

American Art finally gained the win his third at Bangor back in the spring had promised, though it was in only a claiming hurdle, albeit not fully extended. Whether he fully reproduced his earlier form depends on the view taken of runner-up Monroe Park, who clearly benefited from a drop back to two and a half miles. The problem for Monroe Park's connections, and those looking to support him, is that the BHA handicapper will almost certainly take the high view of the form, suggesting that a claimer or weak novice will offer his best chance of a second win of the summer.

The staying handicap chase saw victory for Rowdy Rampage on his first start for Paul Nicholls. This was a fluent display from the front and though only five got round in a grim race, Rowdy Rampage won in a style to suggest he has more to offer and can win again. Runner-up Grovemere is progressing well over the summer and should find a race over fences before much longer; headgear seems important to his effectiveness, running more sweetly with either cheekpieces or a visor fitted than without.


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The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday can act as a springboard for horses destined for Group 1 Company. Timeform preview this year's race...


Trainer Richard Hannon has won the race three times before, most recently with Paco Boy in 2008, and this year he looks to hold the key to the race, with Strong Suit the likely favourite.

Strong Suit never really went on from an impressive win in the Coventry as a juvenile, but a wind op following his flop in the Greenham on his reappearance seems to have worked the oracle, winning the Jersey at Royal Ascot next time and adding the Lennox at Goodwood on his most recent start.

Sandwiched between those two wins, Strong Suit also managed to finish a very close third behind Mutual Trust over a mile in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, but the feeling is that 7f is his trip and he could have too many gears for his rivals.

Strong Suit was really impressive in the Lennox last time, when travelling powerfully throughout, looking value for more than double the official winning margin of one and a half lengths over Red Jazz, and it could easily be the case that there is an even better performance in Strong Suit, bearing in mind that he's still not had much racing.

Hannon also has another couple of entries at this stage, namely Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold.

However, Dick Turpin, who has looked as good as ever when winning twice this year (but has also flopped twice in between) is seemingly more likely to head to France for the Prix Jacques le Marois while Dubawi Gold, who finished runner-up in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, has to put a flop in the St James's Palace behind him.

Godolphin's Delegator is also prominent in the ante-post market. He was an impressive winner of the Duke of York Stakes over six furlongs on his seasonal reappearance and followed that with a creditable effort when fifth from an unfavourably high draw in the July Cup. He bombed out on his latest start, however, when stepping back up to 7f and finishing last of nine behind Strong Suit in the Lennox Stakes, and he now has something to prove.

If back to his best, then Delegator is a definite player at this level, although it has been suggested he is only at the very top of his game when fresh and he'll have had only a few weeks between Goodwood and Newbury.

Of the others, Excelebration arguably makes the greatest appeal, having finished third behind Frankel in the St James' Palace at Royal Ascot last time. Marco Botti's German 2000 Guineas winner probably has more still to offer and he could be the one to make Strong Suit work hardest.


Recommendation

Back Strong Suit in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday


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Three selections for Thursday's racing from Timeform's Free Form Website...


The David Lanigan-trained Planetoid improved when winning a nine-runner handicap at Kempton last week by 2½ lengths from Reem Star. The form may look nothing out of the ordinary (the runner-up was soundly beaten yesterday), but Planetoid was still green during the race and after the penny dropped in the straight, he stayed on strongly and was well on top at the finish. The extra furlong will suit Planetoid this afternoon and he is taken to improve again and defy his penalty.

Cry Fury confirmed the promise of his juvenile debut when landing an 11-furlong maiden at Kempton on his reappearance. The Roger Carlton-trained colt was then sent to Haydock and wasn't discredited when fifth behind St Leger hopeful Brown Panther. Cry Fury travelled notably strongly that day before his stamina was stretched in the closing stages and back down in trip this evening, he rates a leading player on only his second handicap start.

Finally, we switch to the day's sole jumps fixture at Stratford for He's Our Lad. He won a bumper before landing a course-and-distance novice on his hurdling bow in March. He has been beaten both starts since, but, it's fair to say that he has not been ridden to best effect on either occasions, and was again left with too much to do when second here last time. There is a strong suspicion that He's Our Lad is much better than the bare form of that outing would imply and he is taken to prove that this evening.


Recommendations

Back Planetoid @ 2.5 Newmarket 17.10
Back Cry Fury @ 4.0 Goodwood 19.40
Back He's Our Lad @ 3.45 Stratford 20.20


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