TimeformBlog

The Ebor is the richest handicap race in Europe and the decision to stage it on a Saturday for the very first time doesn't appear to have weakened the competitiveness of this year's renewal in the slightest ,with a whole host of runners lining up with chances...


The Goodwood Cup seems the best place to start when reviewing the form for this year's Ebor, as it is responsible for a number of the contenders. Saeed bin Suroor's Lost In The Moment finished an unlucky second to Opinion Poll in that contest, having failed to regain momentum after being hampered over a furlong out, but he nonetheless stayed on strongly to finish ahead of Blue Bajan and Fox Hunt and has less weight to carry than either of that pair on Saturday, with the Ebor being an early-closing race.

Lost In The Moment progressed for the step up in trip at Goodwood, having been predominantly raced over ten furlongs this season, producing smart efforts when second at both Ascot and Chester, and when third in the John Smith's Cup behind Green Destiny and Modun at York, prior to his improved Goodwood effort.

Sir Michael Stoute's Modun heads to York with a progressive profile, having sauntered to an easy victory on his seasonal reappearance under a hands-and-heels ride. Soft ground seemed to be his undoing when flopping at Royal Ascot, but he bounced back to finish second in both the John Smith's Cup and a valuable handicap at Goodwood. Modun was in receipt of 5lb from Lost In The Moment when finishing ahead of that opponent at York and is again closely matched at the weights. A half-brother to Saptapadi and smart stayer Patkai, Modun is still relatively lightly raced and remains open to plenty of improvement, especially now upped in trip.

The aforementioned Saptapadi, who was formerly trained by Stoute but is now in the care of Brian Ellison, is another who ran in the John Smith's Cup over a trip shorter than what would appear to be his optimum. His run at York was particularly eye-catching given his wide draw and the fact he was last turning into the straight, but despite those unfavourable circumstances (which caused him to meet trouble) he ran on extremely well to finish fifth.

Saptapadi has has run in the Group 2 York Stakes, once again over ten furlongs, where he put in a career-best performance in finishing just over two lengths behind Twice Over. He has good form over further and has proved himself an accomplished stayer by finishing second in last year's Henry II Stakes and third in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, and definitely has to be considered here.

Others that make appeal include Mount Athos. Given his connections, progressive profile and the solid level of form he has produced this year, winning on his seasonal reappearance at Dundalk and producing a career best over twelve furlongs at Haydock on his penultimate start, he has to come into the reckoning.

In between those two efforts Mount Athos finished fourth, two places ahead of Blue Bajan, in the Chester Cup, where he did well given the most adverse of circumstances, dropped right out the back from the widest possible stall. He had little hope of catching the winner and the runner-up once he had been produced and was forced to make his effort five-wide, but he ran on very encouragingly nevertheless and has every chance in this and other handicaps off his current mark, acknowleding he has to put a poor effort in an Irish Group 3 behind him.

Also worth a mention is Tactician, who has made steady progress through the handicap-division for Michael Bell. All of Tactician's best form has come over fourteen furlongs and he followed up a promising seasonal reappearance at Newmarket with a C&D win at York last time, forcing the early pace and holding off Fox Hunt in the latter stages to record a one-and-a-quarter length victory. He has been upped 6lb for that effort, making his task here all the more difficult, but he is open to further improvement and, given that form line through Fox Hunt, doesn't have a great deal to find with Lost In The Moment.

In summary, it is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Modun who is the main selection here, as the step up in trip should bring about some marked improvement given his pedigree. He has every chance off what still seems a good mark, potentiallly fitting into the 'Group horse in a handicap' category.


Recommendation

Back Modun @ 8.2 in the Ebor Handicap


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