thehappysnapper

Firstly the only bet i dont think i should have had is Malekat Jamel. Again it was a case of me over thinking a race rather than just waiting for other opportunities i really dont need to play in every single maiden. So that and sleep dance are the only 2 bets that i'm angry at myself for having which isnt too bad by my standards.

Personal Touch was a little tough to swallow getting beaten by a 6/1 shot in a 3 runner race. He didnt beat many at York but I'll be good was one of them and that was over too sharp a course and distance for us so didnt think there was any chance of getting beaten back at hamilton. What i obviously didnt factor in is that 5f at york was obviously far to sharp for I'll be good as well who battled on well up the hill to beat us a half length or so.

Cant grumble about Tadabeer's defeat, it ended up being a two horse race with the mark johnston runner and i came off 2nd best.

I am probably with in my rights to give Hughes a little blast for his performance on Dynamic Dyo. The horse isnt any good so obviously backing it was bad decision but he gave it one crack of the whip and then just no effort, could and should have finished 3rd. He is a bit of a spoilt little brat at times if he isnt on the best horses and having a bad night he rides accordingly. The ride on the hannon horse in the 3.00 maiden was even worse and that was actually really well backed. Watching Dynamic Dyo's previous runs he has battled on well under pressure in much better races so why he didnt think he still had a chance when coming off the bridle i dont know. Any other jock that had already been on him would have finished at least 3rd so cheers Hughesy u have cost me 10pts and turned a bad night into a shocking one.

Not going to be much action tomorrow by the look of things but watch this space for any updates.


Hamilton 2.40 Chosian 2nd @ 3/1 (+2.92)
Hamilton 2.10 Personal Touch 2nd @ 2/1 (-4)
Hamilton 3.40 Tadabeer 2nd @ 6/4 (-4)
Kempton 3.30 Dynamic Duo upl @ 9/2 (-10)
Kempton 2.30 Malekat Jamel upl @ 12/1 (-5)
Catterick 2.05 Indego Blues 1st @ 5/4 (+6)
Newmarket 1.45 Gathering 1st @ 3/1 (+14.4)
Newbury 3.45 Spoke to Carlo 3rd @ 12/1 (+10)
Lingfield 2.55 La Bocca 2nd @ 11/4 (+3.33)
Lingfield 2.25 Talk of the North 2nd @ 5/4 (+3.33)
Newbury 4.20 Accession 1st @ 11/10 (+5.5)
Wolverhampton 5.15 Fairyinthewind upl @ 7/1 (-10pts)
Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +46.91pts

One little bet for me on Malekat Jamel in the first at kempton 4pts place at 11/4 and 1 pt win at 12/1.

This races has been cause me some headaches to be honest as the form on offer just looks dreadful bar the favourite but i'm totally convinced with her either at such a short price.

I'm pretty there is a fair bit more to come from Simcocks filly who got caught wide last time over CD and just didnt have the pace to go with the leaders when quickening up. Nothing really got into the race from off the speed including the 2/1 favourite of Marco Botti's. Nicely drawn today and Spencer booked im hoping there is solid end to end gallop for him to aim at in the closing stages. She was also sent off a well backed 11/2 last time so is clearly doing something at home to suggest there is more to come.

i dont like the form of jack diamonds and young prince at all. Venetian ran well on turf last time over 5f's but is bred to be a sprinter and has failed badly over this trip at brighton.Philipstown ran in the same race at brighton and the first 3 home are probably all decent but after a promising run finishing 3rd at newmarket behind 2 useful horses he was sent off 10/1 and friendless in the market which has to set alarm bells.

Everything else in the race is 200/1 so if we do get a decent pace that 11/4 to place could look very generous.

Simcocks 2yo's were flying last month having 6 winners but from just about the same amount of runners this month is yet to trouble the judge. With that stable form in mind and the fact its taken me so long to find the bet i have decided to half stake it.

bit later than usual today been out and about enjoying a 27 degree spring afternoon here in melbourne.

Just a quick note on yesterdays runner choisan who was a little unlucky not to finally get his head in front. Been running into decent sorts all year and did so again yesterday. Always annoying to get done by 20/1 debutants but hey the show must go on and got a couple to get stuck into today.

a couple of 4pts win bets at Hamiltonn on Personal Touch @ 2/1 in the first and Tadabeer @ 6/4. No need to discuss either in much depth as such obvious chances. The 5f trip for Personal touch at york was just too sharp the 6f stiff track at hamilton on soft ground will be ideal and put up a great effort first time out over course and distance. A reproduction of that will make him very hard to beat. Tadabeer ran into a well backed haggas horse last time, the front 3 drew 10 lengths clear and the form looks very solid.

All three maidens at kempton are of interest but only one looks worth a bet imo. Would be happy enough to take on Equity Card in the first but just cant pinpoint which i want to part with my money on. The 2nd just has too many unknowns altho i still might decide to play one at big price later.

The one i do want to be with in the 3rd is Dynamic Duo @ 9/2 and 5/6 for the usual 2pts win 8pts place. Been up with the pace in a couple of decent maidens this season on galloping tracks just hasnt quite got home. The low draw and this sharper track will definitely help him get home over the mile and hopefully not get too much pressure early.

Made a couple of points profit with yesterdays place but will update the running totals after todays efforts.

A handy little double up yesterday leaving the blog profit on 66.99pts and couldnt have hoped for a better 1st week. A frustrating start with with quite a few hitting the crossbar but 3 winners in the last 2 days has done wonders for the confidence.

Gathering ended up getting the run of the race quickening away off a slow pace which i was kind of hoping might happen. The balding horse that finished 2nd could be the one the take from the race and wouldnt be surprised if she turned the form around if they met again in a strongly run contest over a mile. I wouldnt actually be surprised if 7fs ends up being Gatherings best trip as she looks to possess an impressive turn of off.

Got hit with a pretty hefty reduction on the indego blues bet but with the main danger gone from the race i wasnt really complaining too much and he did it as short priced favourite should. I have recorded the win at 6/4.

Just one maiden on the flat today at Hamilton, i still dont know why we cant have decent racing on a sunday in the uk, but dont worry i have still managed to come up with a bet. Write up to follow.......

Thought it was easier just to add the bet here rather than doing a whole new post just for one bet so here goes, 2.40 Hamilton Choisan 2pts win 8pts place at 3/1 and 8/13. Newcastle maiden form often doesnt work out to that strong but that doesnt appear to be the case with Choisan's last maiden. The first 3 pulled clear of the field, the winner has won a handicap since quite easily and we all know what happened to Talk of the North. Already encountered soft ground that day and saw the 7f's out well. Bred to get the mile but not much further but looks to the eye the trip will suit.

johnstons horse will go off in front i would have thought and set a very searching gallop will suit him but i just dont think his form is that good and worth taking on at 5/2. The other obvious danger the filly of mick channon's who ran well last time at goodwood but i was on the that day and remember think it she didnt see the trip out that well. She should be better over this trip on breeding but maybe she just isnt that straightforward and has weakened badly in the closing stages of a 7f race as well.




Catterick 2.05 Indego Blues 1st @ 5/4 (+6)
Newmarket 1.45 Gathering 1st @ 3/1 (+14.4)
Newbury 3.45 Spoke to Carlo 3rd @ 12/1 (+10)
Lingfield 2.55 La Bocca 2nd @ 11/4 (+3.33)
Lingfield 2.25 Talk of the North 2nd @ 5/4 (+3.33)
Newbury 4.20 Accession 1st @ 11/10 (+5.5)
Wolverhampton 5.15 Fairyinthewind upl @ 7/1 (-10pts)
Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +66.99pts

Well luckily I have managed to find a couple of bets I like in today’s maidens so don’t have to go cold turkey this evening without a punt haha. Will using the usual staking plan of 2pts win and 8pts place on the first.

They are both pretty obvious selections and unfortunately their prices reflect that, but in the first at Newmarket Gathering has to be in with a serious chance and 4/1 win 10/11 place looks a bit of a steal. Ran really solid race first time out travelling smoothly at the head of affairs for much of the race and sticking on well enough once headed. May have just done a little too much early which held her back from finishing her race off as well as a couple of others but I’m pretty sure she will have learnt plenty for the experience and a more professional performance today is highly likely, I’m pretty sure Havlin will try and find her some cover too. I think it’s also important to note she was sent off 7/2 first time out in what was a strong race which isn’t always the case with John Gosden’s newcomers.

I would be just as happy to back her if kept to 7f but will bow to JG’s better judgement, he I think he is a class trainer and does especially well with his fillies so I’m sure he knows the best trip and a mile isn’t a problem on breeding. The 2 months off could be a slight concern but I think he may have just been taking his time with her and waiting for some good to firm ground instead of there being any problems. The form of her first run is also looking above average with the winner running well again to finish 2nd in a better race and maiden winners have come from further down the field.

There isn’t that many in here that we need to concentrate on, the market normally proves a pretty good guide on the stoute horses and they are both big enough prices already. The other newcomer is clearly thought a bit of but then that’s nearly always the case this cecil’s fillies so can sometimes be difficult to read.
Of the others with runs under their belts Bana Wu is the most interesting finishing 6th in a decent maiden over 7f on good to soft ground but the fast ground will definitely be against her and altho this is over a furlong further, could get out paced. 3 ½ lengths behind lyric of light certainly reads very well but I did think they all finished in a bit of a heap and there were some pretty average ones not too far behind her including valiant runner who has since been well beaten in a handicap off 64.

The one worth a mention is hannon’s but I don’t think form will stack up in a Newmarket maiden even tho the extra furlong will help. Pat Dobbs may try and force a really strong gallop which could be the best chance he has of winning it otherwise they may not go too fast.

more to follow.....

Was hoping to play this next one win and place as well but the price has crashed at just the wrong time. Still worth a small win only of 4pts at 9/4.

The favourite and 3rd fav come out of the same race and would expect glamorous angel to uphold the form altho this quick track and better draw of johnstons may make it close. The horse to finish 5th in the race has been out since and didn’t frank the form altho he was a little way back so may not be that relevant but it did take a while for glamorous to get going up the hill and isn’t going to have that luxury on this much sharper track that favours speed and a low draw.

Indego Blues has looked very sharp in both his races but just seems to have been a bit of a slow learner regards the stalls. He was definitely better away  last time than on debut so that’s encouraging and the mid race speed he has demonstrated has been impressive so if he can just step up again today and get away nicely from the low draw he will be very hard to beat on a track that should play to all his strengths.

Just a quick word on yesterdays results which werent too bad in all with 4 of the 5 making the frame. With even luck i probably should have had a second winner with Talk of the North who definitely finished the race like an unlucky loser.

Accession really looks one to keep on the right side of i think and the filly that beat him quite cosy first time must be an exciting prospect too.

Morris came under a lot of fire for his ride on Talk of the north which definitely wasnt the best but i do think u have to get to the stands rail at lingfield at all costs and the lad riding the horse to his outside was determined to keep him in. Finished full of running so could make up to be a nice prospect for his newbie trainer.

I was very disappointed with fairyinthewind who after being fast from the gate on her first 2 starts couldnt hold a decent position from a good draw in 4, i cant help but think it was all by design being the 3rd run and i will be interested in the mark she is given but the problem is i doubt she will get a better chance to win a race than that and decided not to even try. I'm guess she will be given low 60's just because she definitely hinted at ability first time out. Its all very well opting for the handicap route after 2 runs and trying to lower your mark with a poor 3rd run but the problem is your not the only one at it and altho you might go into your first handicap with 7 pounds or so to spare there is every chance you will meet one with a stone in hand for exactly the same reason.

Saturdays are never my favourite days racing mainly because of the lack of maiden races so may not even be a bet but will keep you posted.


Newbury 3.45 Spoke to Carlo 3rd @ 12/1 (+10)
Lingfield 2.55 La Bocca 2nd @ 11/4 (+3.33)
Lingfield 2.25 Talk of the North 2nd @ 5/4 (+3.33)
Newbury 4.20 Accession 1st 11/10 (+5.5)
Wolverhampton 5.15 Fairyinthewind upl @ 7/1 (-10pts)
Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +46.59pts

Got a few of interest today so instead of creating a blog post for each bet i will just be editing this one so keep your eyes peeled for any updates there will be least 3 or 4.

Will kick off with a couple of small plays at Newbury.

Playing Accession in the 6f maiden win only at 11/8 for 4pts. Cox’s horse always seem to show steady improvement thru their juvenile season so every reason to think he will come on a fair bit from his first effort. Really looking forward to seeing Radio Gaga run next who beat him first time out at haydock, I think the form will work out to be strong. All the right horses came to the fore including Accession who im guessing is Cox’s best 2yo. I won’t dwell on him too long as his chance is obvious being 6/4 fav but all I will say is Hills horse already has a couple of questions to answer one of which could be the good to soft ground. 4pts win only Accession.

Whilst I think Harvard n Yale is going to take some beating in the conditions race for 2yo’s im going chance a small 4pts place and 1pt win on Spoke to Carlo @ 20/1 and 4/1. Whilst he doesn’t appear to have to class of a couple of these his 2 runs this year have been very encouraging and the form of his last effort at Warwick is actually working out to be pretty hot form. Could end up being quite testing at newbury which could level the playing field a little and hold no fears for this son of Halling who has the benefit of experience and gets the 4 pounds weight concession from the winners.

More to follow including a double figure nap that im very very sweet on...

Lingfield seems as good a place to start as any and the maiden that kicks things off 2.25 is an interesting heat. As usual at lingfield its going to be vital to be drawn high on the straight course and for that reason rookie trainer Hugo Palmer’s Talk of the North is worth siding with at 11/4 win and 4/6 place.

Going to need to get away quicker than she did at Newcastle first time out but with quite a few unraced ones drawn close by she shouldn’t be under too much pressure earlier.  The extra half furlong will be plus and if she can just bag the running rail I think this contest could be done and dusted.  There are mixed messages about the form as the odds on fav of fahey’s disappointed again but the 3rd was rated 81 and looked to run his race. The front three put a little break on the field and she was up against the boys first time out which is never easy.

One of the first things we do when looking at a race is of course take the draw into consideration but its just as important to look at where they were drawn last time and that’s why im prepared to take on Surry Storm. She had the perfect draw at folkestone and got a nice tow into the race, I believe a high draw there is nearly as big as an advantage as here at lingers. So not only is she drawn in the carpark today but she was drawn in the express line last time so was more than likely flattered especially as she was sent off at 66/1.

Nothing else that’s got form already in the book really worries me too much but there are a few debutants that are sure be to the biggest dangers. The usual 8pts place 2pts win back against her own sex from a good draw will be hard to beat.

Keeping it simple in the next as well with another one drawn high this time La Bocca gets the nod at 7/2 win and 4/6 place for 8pts by 2pts. She has shown really good speed in both starts so far so this quick downhill 5f should be perfect after not quite seeing her last 2 races out over 6f. Whilst I don’t think she has much scope for improvement she has shown a decent enough attitude to battle on once headed over 6f and looks a shoe in to get that all important rail position from her draw.

The big danger to her looks to be draw next to her in 11 so im expecting a battle for the lead and a strong pace from the outset but it seems however fast they go off at lingfield on the straight course nothing gets into the race from off the pace so im not too concerned about them doing too much early on.  I guess the one horse that could profit from the first two cutting each others throats is Lana but Bell’s yard is woefully out of form, don’t think he has managed a winner this month and hasn’t been from a lack of trying and then of course Ian Burns has been jocked up for the 3rd run in maiden company after a two month break. Everything about this one says not today imo.

The others that have run haven’t really got anything to recommend them and I guess if anything is going to spoil the party it could be the unraced George Baker horse and I will be watching the market like a hawk.

Last but definitely not least....

Reckon I have saved the best till last with Fairyinthewind in the first at Wolverhampton at 14/1 win and 11/4 place and will be having the normal 2pts by 8pts. A really promising first up effort back in may at Newmarket, ok she only beat one home but showed good speed and didn’t fade out of it as u would have thought once headed. The form hasn’t worked out to be brilliant especially for a Newmarket maiden but in the context of this race it wasn’t too bad at all and probably ran to a mark In the mid to high 60’s. She appeared not to really build on that last time at Windsor but that was after nearly 3 months off where I guess she had some sort of minor setback. She did however show decent speed early on so this speed track tonight at Wolverhampton should be spot on for her especially from a nice draw in 4. I’m hoping there not just looking for a handicap mark today and they bang her out and try and use her speed early. Also worth noting she got a bit of a bump 3 furlongs out at Windsor last time and as that was the first time she had been in a biggish sized field which might have been a little intimidating.

I backed the fav last time and she did nothing wrong and has an obvious favourites chance but isn’t ideally drawn in 10 for one at such a short price. Not really much else to talk about in the race but the fact that blodwin abbey rated in the low 60’s and had plenty of goes is the only other horse in single figures tells you all you need to know about strength of the contest.

365 have priced the race up a little defensively at 9/1 but should be better to come from the other books.


Get it on and get it on large

I really don't know why my selections always seem to run well without getting their head in front but again yesterday with my heavily loaded place bets still yielded a decent profit of 12 points. In truth i was probably quick fortunate to be placed with all three, Academy never looked like winning and fairest isle was trapped very wide through out off a slow pace. I was confident of beating the eventual winner as well so that didnt really go to plan but luckily for me the favourite ran a stinker. I did get a fair bit better price in the end than i recorded at least on fairest isle but for the purposes of this blog will just record the place at 5/6, actually went off 2.8 in the end. Definitely had the rare rub of the green yesterday with those two especially Academy who easily could have been out the frame so wont whinge too much about the 1.02 in-running defeat of Press Officer.

At some point i have to consider just backing them to place and not even bothering with a win bet?


Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +34.43pts

far too late in evening for a write up but Press Office is well worth a bet at 3/1 win and 4/7 place. The usual 8pts place and 2pts win.

Really liked the way he travelled into contention at newmarket last time and back to a mile should suit. Frankie has a good strike for Al Zarooni and reckon hes on a nice one here.

Some low grade racing on today but that doesnt mean there arent a could of stand out bets knocking about.

The first race that takes the eye is the 1m2f maiden at ponte. It doesnt look the strongest of fields and im very keen to take on the 3 in single figure prices that all met at folkestone last time being figaro, shaqira and mahyogin. There was a blanket finish to the race and you can either think they all ran to their marks in the high 70's or they all ran a bit flat and altho the winner has been out again and run well he was an older horse giving lumps of weight away which i never think is easy in maidens. The Stoute horse didnt do much for the form yesterday at kempton and i'm confident the folkestone form isnt worth much.

Assuming im right about that form (a big assumption i know) that is 3 of the 5 runners in single figures taken care of leaving us with the fav of goldolpins who i backed last time at windsor and Academy. Jameel is definitely a big runner and worthy favourite on the back of that last effort but the no matter how much of an obvious chance on the form Bin Suroor's horses have they just arent winning at the moment and at 9/4ish would rather take a chance on Academy who's stable havent been exactly firing in the winners either but at least he is a bit of a price around 5/1. It was a poor maiden for newmarket standards he was 2nd in first up last year and knowing what we know now about that race 2/11 was rediculous at nottingham which actually wasnt a bad contest in its own right. When people see horses turned over at such prices its always going to be cause for great concern but there are definitely reasons to give this fella another chance today on much faster ground. It is interesting that they have kept him in training with Stoute as Highclere do so often sell up pretty quickly he does also look like a proper montjeu with a slightly high head carrage and not a total convincing way of racing but that could have been down to the soft ground he was racing on last year more than anything else. Ran well despite it not being the strongest of newmarket maidens first time out at 2yo and it could be that first time this year is the only time to catch him before he gets even more of his own ideas about the racing game.

at around 5/1 win and 10/11 place i will be having my usual 8pts by 2pts.

The other one i'm very keen on today is Fairest Isle at kempton in the 1m4f maiden. The race looks dreadful and the favourite could really end up being a penalty kick but he has finished 2nd more times than one would ideally like. Looking thru the field for alternatives didnt take too long as nothing bar Fanshawe's has shown any promise at all.

A quick word on a few of them - tollers didnt look to stay a mile last time and related to 6 and 7 furlong horses. up in trip for 3rd run in maiden company. Wont stay.

Cumani's and Baldings both coming back from 2 month breaks afte showing no promise at all at big prices earlier in the season.

Guess you could take a chance on either of the unraced ones and will be interesting to see what the market maskes of them later on but how often does either trainer have first time out winners, i will answer that for you, never.

The other obvious one with a bit of form is passion play but she doesnt interest me in the slightest. The 3rd last time out will catch peoples eye but the form is bad, the winner has been out again since and tailed off in a handicap the fourth who made her fight all the way to the line ran in a handicap at brighton off 60 odd and finished tailed off last as well. It looked to me as tho nothing else in the race bar the winner stayed the trip way the gap increased all the way to the line. The other fancied one in the race of haggas sent off 2/1 was clearly not right finishing tailed off and has run well enough since but that cant be taken as positive for the form.

So that just leaves me to talk a little bit more about Fairest Isle who's 4th last time at wolverhampton was very encouraging. The bare form in the context of this race looks solid the winner who got the run of the race has been out and won a handicap since of a higher mark and the cecil horse that finished just in front of us has run with credit in maiden company since. She didnt get away too well but recovered well and travelled nicely in mid div is related to a 2 mile winner on the all weather so the step up in trip will be a massive positive and Fanshawe's horses are all finishing the season really well. I dont know if she can beat the fav but im pretty sure she is the only horse in the race thats going to have a go and therefore 8pts place around 5/6 and 2pts win at 5/1 or better looks a strong bet to me.

may come up with something else later.