thehappysnapper

Some low grade racing on today but that doesnt mean there arent a could of stand out bets knocking about.

The first race that takes the eye is the 1m2f maiden at ponte. It doesnt look the strongest of fields and im very keen to take on the 3 in single figure prices that all met at folkestone last time being figaro, shaqira and mahyogin. There was a blanket finish to the race and you can either think they all ran to their marks in the high 70's or they all ran a bit flat and altho the winner has been out again and run well he was an older horse giving lumps of weight away which i never think is easy in maidens. The Stoute horse didnt do much for the form yesterday at kempton and i'm confident the folkestone form isnt worth much.

Assuming im right about that form (a big assumption i know) that is 3 of the 5 runners in single figures taken care of leaving us with the fav of goldolpins who i backed last time at windsor and Academy. Jameel is definitely a big runner and worthy favourite on the back of that last effort but the no matter how much of an obvious chance on the form Bin Suroor's horses have they just arent winning at the moment and at 9/4ish would rather take a chance on Academy who's stable havent been exactly firing in the winners either but at least he is a bit of a price around 5/1. It was a poor maiden for newmarket standards he was 2nd in first up last year and knowing what we know now about that race 2/11 was rediculous at nottingham which actually wasnt a bad contest in its own right. When people see horses turned over at such prices its always going to be cause for great concern but there are definitely reasons to give this fella another chance today on much faster ground. It is interesting that they have kept him in training with Stoute as Highclere do so often sell up pretty quickly he does also look like a proper montjeu with a slightly high head carrage and not a total convincing way of racing but that could have been down to the soft ground he was racing on last year more than anything else. Ran well despite it not being the strongest of newmarket maidens first time out at 2yo and it could be that first time this year is the only time to catch him before he gets even more of his own ideas about the racing game.

at around 5/1 win and 10/11 place i will be having my usual 8pts by 2pts.

The other one i'm very keen on today is Fairest Isle at kempton in the 1m4f maiden. The race looks dreadful and the favourite could really end up being a penalty kick but he has finished 2nd more times than one would ideally like. Looking thru the field for alternatives didnt take too long as nothing bar Fanshawe's has shown any promise at all.

A quick word on a few of them - tollers didnt look to stay a mile last time and related to 6 and 7 furlong horses. up in trip for 3rd run in maiden company. Wont stay.

Cumani's and Baldings both coming back from 2 month breaks afte showing no promise at all at big prices earlier in the season.

Guess you could take a chance on either of the unraced ones and will be interesting to see what the market maskes of them later on but how often does either trainer have first time out winners, i will answer that for you, never.

The other obvious one with a bit of form is passion play but she doesnt interest me in the slightest. The 3rd last time out will catch peoples eye but the form is bad, the winner has been out again since and tailed off in a handicap the fourth who made her fight all the way to the line ran in a handicap at brighton off 60 odd and finished tailed off last as well. It looked to me as tho nothing else in the race bar the winner stayed the trip way the gap increased all the way to the line. The other fancied one in the race of haggas sent off 2/1 was clearly not right finishing tailed off and has run well enough since but that cant be taken as positive for the form.

So that just leaves me to talk a little bit more about Fairest Isle who's 4th last time at wolverhampton was very encouraging. The bare form in the context of this race looks solid the winner who got the run of the race has been out and won a handicap since of a higher mark and the cecil horse that finished just in front of us has run with credit in maiden company since. She didnt get away too well but recovered well and travelled nicely in mid div is related to a 2 mile winner on the all weather so the step up in trip will be a massive positive and Fanshawe's horses are all finishing the season really well. I dont know if she can beat the fav but im pretty sure she is the only horse in the race thats going to have a go and therefore 8pts place around 5/6 and 2pts win at 5/1 or better looks a strong bet to me.

may come up with something else later.