thehappysnapper

Got a few of interest today so instead of creating a blog post for each bet i will just be editing this one so keep your eyes peeled for any updates there will be least 3 or 4.

Will kick off with a couple of small plays at Newbury.

Playing Accession in the 6f maiden win only at 11/8 for 4pts. Cox’s horse always seem to show steady improvement thru their juvenile season so every reason to think he will come on a fair bit from his first effort. Really looking forward to seeing Radio Gaga run next who beat him first time out at haydock, I think the form will work out to be strong. All the right horses came to the fore including Accession who im guessing is Cox’s best 2yo. I won’t dwell on him too long as his chance is obvious being 6/4 fav but all I will say is Hills horse already has a couple of questions to answer one of which could be the good to soft ground. 4pts win only Accession.

Whilst I think Harvard n Yale is going to take some beating in the conditions race for 2yo’s im going chance a small 4pts place and 1pt win on Spoke to Carlo @ 20/1 and 4/1. Whilst he doesn’t appear to have to class of a couple of these his 2 runs this year have been very encouraging and the form of his last effort at Warwick is actually working out to be pretty hot form. Could end up being quite testing at newbury which could level the playing field a little and hold no fears for this son of Halling who has the benefit of experience and gets the 4 pounds weight concession from the winners.

More to follow including a double figure nap that im very very sweet on...

Lingfield seems as good a place to start as any and the maiden that kicks things off 2.25 is an interesting heat. As usual at lingfield its going to be vital to be drawn high on the straight course and for that reason rookie trainer Hugo Palmer’s Talk of the North is worth siding with at 11/4 win and 4/6 place.

Going to need to get away quicker than she did at Newcastle first time out but with quite a few unraced ones drawn close by she shouldn’t be under too much pressure earlier.  The extra half furlong will be plus and if she can just bag the running rail I think this contest could be done and dusted.  There are mixed messages about the form as the odds on fav of fahey’s disappointed again but the 3rd was rated 81 and looked to run his race. The front three put a little break on the field and she was up against the boys first time out which is never easy.

One of the first things we do when looking at a race is of course take the draw into consideration but its just as important to look at where they were drawn last time and that’s why im prepared to take on Surry Storm. She had the perfect draw at folkestone and got a nice tow into the race, I believe a high draw there is nearly as big as an advantage as here at lingers. So not only is she drawn in the carpark today but she was drawn in the express line last time so was more than likely flattered especially as she was sent off at 66/1.

Nothing else that’s got form already in the book really worries me too much but there are a few debutants that are sure be to the biggest dangers. The usual 8pts place 2pts win back against her own sex from a good draw will be hard to beat.

Keeping it simple in the next as well with another one drawn high this time La Bocca gets the nod at 7/2 win and 4/6 place for 8pts by 2pts. She has shown really good speed in both starts so far so this quick downhill 5f should be perfect after not quite seeing her last 2 races out over 6f. Whilst I don’t think she has much scope for improvement she has shown a decent enough attitude to battle on once headed over 6f and looks a shoe in to get that all important rail position from her draw.

The big danger to her looks to be draw next to her in 11 so im expecting a battle for the lead and a strong pace from the outset but it seems however fast they go off at lingfield on the straight course nothing gets into the race from off the pace so im not too concerned about them doing too much early on.  I guess the one horse that could profit from the first two cutting each others throats is Lana but Bell’s yard is woefully out of form, don’t think he has managed a winner this month and hasn’t been from a lack of trying and then of course Ian Burns has been jocked up for the 3rd run in maiden company after a two month break. Everything about this one says not today imo.

The others that have run haven’t really got anything to recommend them and I guess if anything is going to spoil the party it could be the unraced George Baker horse and I will be watching the market like a hawk.

Last but definitely not least....

Reckon I have saved the best till last with Fairyinthewind in the first at Wolverhampton at 14/1 win and 11/4 place and will be having the normal 2pts by 8pts. A really promising first up effort back in may at Newmarket, ok she only beat one home but showed good speed and didn’t fade out of it as u would have thought once headed. The form hasn’t worked out to be brilliant especially for a Newmarket maiden but in the context of this race it wasn’t too bad at all and probably ran to a mark In the mid to high 60’s. She appeared not to really build on that last time at Windsor but that was after nearly 3 months off where I guess she had some sort of minor setback. She did however show decent speed early on so this speed track tonight at Wolverhampton should be spot on for her especially from a nice draw in 4. I’m hoping there not just looking for a handicap mark today and they bang her out and try and use her speed early. Also worth noting she got a bit of a bump 3 furlongs out at Windsor last time and as that was the first time she had been in a biggish sized field which might have been a little intimidating.

I backed the fav last time and she did nothing wrong and has an obvious favourites chance but isn’t ideally drawn in 10 for one at such a short price. Not really much else to talk about in the race but the fact that blodwin abbey rated in the low 60’s and had plenty of goes is the only other horse in single figures tells you all you need to know about strength of the contest.

365 have priced the race up a little defensively at 9/1 but should be better to come from the other books.


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