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lost to Goffin in 4 sets, he still doesn't like to play him. He still might improve his career high ranking (18), but the gap to #16 increased.
He's going to play on clay now at the Golden Swing, probably the easiest way to earn ranking points, so it's not unlikely he will be seeded in IW and Miami (as we know Fed won#t play Miami, and probably someone ahead in rankings will miss IW due to injury). I'm sure he has top 10 potential (not sure about top 5), but that's not all required (ask Dimitrov or Fognini). And I think he won't make top 10 this year, the gap is too big, and the old generation still won't go without fighting, so if the season developes very well I see him at #12 at the end, but it's also possible he suffers a bad spell and finishes outside top 16. |
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Goffin is no mug, very good player in fact so no disgrace. must admit i thought he would have progressed a little quicker
but he still looks a bit weak physically and lots to build on. |
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beating Nadull on clay in BA SF is his 2nd win against a top 10 player (the 1st being Wawa in Madrid '14)
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He's still a good clay court player. Capable on hard court, but still very vulnerable. I feel he goes to Roland Garros with a good chance of going pretty deep.
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I liked the ATP headline, Argen-Thiema
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While his 4th 250 tournament win doesn't improve his ranking, it takes him closer to top 16, and it should be a confidence boost. Being 7-2 in tbs and 6-0 in deciding sets this year shows he has already regained some mental strength and fighting ability, which he seemed to have lost last year, though in some matches the necessity to play a deciding set against weaker opposition was mainly due to lapses in concentration.
What will be crucial is not having to wait 10 matches again till he beats another top 10 player! |
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Looks like the Austrians got themselves a new Muster
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Probably Thiem plays the part of Fognini from last years in 2016. Though he should be more consistent, I don't think he'll challenge the real big guns, RG SF at best, QF more likely. Don't know his planned schedule for the European clay court season, maybe he targets the one Djoker will ignore. He's top 16 now, I'd skip Acapulco nowand concentrsate on IW and Miami.
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I think he's more solid than Fognini. He's got a real chance to target top 12 in the world by the end of this year. Kevin Anderson is struggling so he'll be dropping down the rankings. But I guess Del Potro will be on the move and could find himself in the top 20 by this time next year
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12th is what I considered is possible for Thiem at the end of the season if he does really well, at the moment it looks like he's on the the right way.
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and yes, he is more solid, I meant it the way he is able to beat the best on clay sometimes.
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Potro, it's way to early to know whether he is able to play at high level for a whole season after those long breaks due to surgeries.
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things are looking nice for him at the moment. I guess only time will tell!
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While he showed last week that he can win after a great match, he couldn't do it this time, imo more physical than mental weakness this time. So I don't know why he's going to Acapulco, I see again troubles coming up for Austrian DC team, I hate the games Bresnik is playing using Thiem as his pawn just the same way Leitgeb did with Muster, when Bresnik coached Skoff
. I hoped this would be done when Leitgeb retreated from leading the Federation. |
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Tursunov is big value tobeat Thiem tonight, looks like you should get 6.5-7
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Hope you had a good trade!
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Haven't seen Dimi recently, but @2.6x value should be with Thiem, though I admit it's hard for me to prize that match
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After beating Dimi 7-5 6-2 he is now fav for the tournament win, Querrey is the bigger threat in SF imo, but 1.8 looks about right.
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Surprisingly easi beating Querrey 6-2, 6-2 and winning against Tomic being a break down in all 3 sets giving him the first title on HC and on 500 level. Career high #14 (top 16 should be secured till July), 3rd in race won't stand the test of time. Next points dropping off in Miami (180).
Now playing DC on hard in Portugal, never done well in this competition so far. |
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He's gone down in my estimation after realising he supports Chelsea!
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I think Thiem can fill the void left by Nadal, Corin can be the next Djokovic and Zverev be the next Roger. I know these look unrealistic but surely these players can come close to the current big 3.
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what sense does it make Portugal playing Austria on a hard court? What are they playing on what they consider to be Thiem's weaker surface yet Gastao Elias cant even win a match on a hard court, at least he is quite a solid player on clay and he would have had much more of a chance to beat Thiem on clay if he had a bad day.
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They probably hope Sousa can beat Thiem on HC, and you have to remind choice of surface had to be made months ago.
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Finally Thiem has scored his first wins in DC against Potugal (3-2 vs Elias and in doubles, 3-0 vs Sousa). Now back in America, I'm not sure if he has fully recovered, so while he should beat qualifier Kovalik without any problem, 1.1 is no value. The likely following opponents Sock and Tsonga won't be easy.
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not playing really well in IW, 7-6, 7-6 vs Kovalik not impressive, 7-5, 6-7, 6-1 vs Sock was ok, but without any chance vs Tsonga (3-6, 2-6), I didn't understand why odd were almost evens for this match.
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dropping 1 place from career high #13 after IW as Raonic overtook him, which isn't surprising.
Not a good draw in Miami being seeded only 14 (he was 11 in IW), Estrella Burgos (h2h 1-1) or Groth in R2, F Lopez (or maybe Sousa) in R3, then running against Djoker. With Estrella not having too good a season and Lopez suiting him he should make it to R4, but he will have to fight for it, then expect game over. |
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End of Thiem.
End of thread. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeLSVlMWoAINRXe.jpg:large |
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I can't believe Thiem is sub 1.2 vs Groth, he is not known to be a great returner. Groth not with a good w/l record this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a tb, which Groth is able to win. 1.35 more realistic imo.
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Beating Groth after wasting 8bps in set 1 breaking on his 3rd 0-40 lead doing a comfortable set 2. After Sousa being promoted to a seeded slot and qualifier Nishioka beating Lopez he had an easy ride into rd4, now waiting if Sousa can beat Djoker to open his road. With Fed withdrawing and LL Zeballos eliminating delPo Goffin is threatening Goffin is threatening his #13 ranking.
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super talent, dominated an all be it off par djokovic, came of age last night, this kid will be competing for grand slams before long.
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Thiem didn't play bad vs Djoker, but didn't take his chances. You don't often get 15 bps vs Djoker, but winning only 1 (donated by a df) is poor on the other hand. And Djoker won't do 9 dfs next time! Djoker was off his best by far, but the odds told a story, not dropping much after 1st set, that Thiem was a dangerous opponent able to win a set.
As it had to be expected after the withdrawal of Fed and the loss of Ferrer Goffin overtook him in WRL. I would be satisfied with him reaching the QF at RG this year, let's at first look how he performs in the big tournaments till then. He never won a match in MC, then he plays Munich (don't know why he still follows the schedule of a journeyman), probably followed by Madrid and Rome. I hope he doesn't defend his Nice title. |
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Thiem will definitely be competing for the Top position in the coming years and it's players like him that can stop Novak from overcoming Roger's grandslam record. Thiem, Zverev, Coric, Fritz are the future but apart from Thiem no one else is ready to beat Novak now, they need atleast a year.
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Bresnik saying Thiem is scheduled to play Nice as well, on the other hand he said he wants him going into RG with 15 matches on clay. But if Thiem proceeds like he should do on paper, that schedule means 19 matches at least
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MC draw looks very easy till r3, but as he never has won a match there, odds off 1.15 vs Struff (h2h 0-1 from Auckland Jan '15) can't be value. R3 opponent should be Nadull again (h2h 1-1). Outright market has Nadull still as 2nd fav (which looks ridiculous to me), and Thiem as 6th.
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After losing to Nadull in MC rd 3, Kohli in Munich final and delPo in Madrid rd 1 (which of course was an unfortunatley hard draw), rd 3 in Rome brings up another biggie with Fed. It's their 2nd match and the 1st on clay. Of course he will have to do better on break opportunities if he wants to win it. This was again his weakness being defeated by Nadull and delPo.
Due to his failure in Madrid it looks very unlikely he'll make a top 12 seeding for RG (Munich doesn't count for the moment), so he is likely to meet one of the top 4 seeds in rd 4. Therefor I can't understand why he is 7th fav on the outright market. |
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Zverev called Thiem a right-handed Nadal. Excellent comparison by someone who has played against both men and knows his stuff.
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He even has a deep uuuuuughh grunt after every stroke just like Rafa
They're so alike. If he wasn't beating Alex Zverev every week because of his superior fitness and whipping heavy topspin forehand I'd become a fan. |
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I love that deep long grunt after every shot. So sexy
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