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Cilic US Open thrashing of Murray: The Sequel

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By:
Marin1977
When: 05 Sep 12 23:59

Sep 5, 2012 -- 11:58PM, morrillo wrote:


no luck cilic


He doesnt deserve any luck.

By:
n1xd40
When: 05 Sep 12 23:59
This game is crazy....hope Murray take it again to easy now
By:
reveley
When: 06 Sep 12 00:00
holds serve now no bother Laugh
By:
Swum
When: 06 Sep 12 00:00
Come on the 6-0, we love you Cilic
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:00
yeah darlo ...i hear what ur saying , if you ONLY back when theres value . then you have to win in the long term
By:
Beaniash
When: 06 Sep 12 00:00
I'M OUT THE 3.5 BET ... IT'S NFL TIME
By:
shiraz
When: 06 Sep 12 00:00
Gibbo99
05 Sep 12 23:57
Darlo Bantam: Yeah I do understand actually. Backing at 1.18 usually entails huge stakes...hence the stress involved and risk of spunking tons of money instead of waiting for actual value bets. i.e Murray at 3.15. Plus the fact you'll have to win multiple times to cover just one loss.

Not sure you have a comeback for this one - pretty sure i've covered all the relevant bases.



What makes you think that 3.15 is "value" and 1.18 is not value?
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:01
its all about reading momentum ...3.15 is great value now
By:
Dr.Fuentes
When: 06 Sep 12 00:01
i think best was 1,8ssss when cilic was 4-2 up in tb
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 06 Sep 12 00:02

Sep 6, 2012 -- 12:00AM, shiraz wrote:


Gibbo9905 Sep 12 23:57Darlo Bantam: Yeah I do understand actually. Backing at 1.18 usually entails huge stakes...hence the stress involved and risk of spunking tons of money instead of waiting for actual value bets. i.e Murray at 3.15. Plus the fact you'll have to win multiple times to cover just one loss.Not sure you have a comeback for this one - pretty sure i've covered all the relevant bases.What makes you think that 3.15 is "value" and 1.18 is not value?


Agree. It doesn't matter what the odds are. Every bet has to have value to you for it to be part of a winning strategy.

By:
yarik
When: 06 Sep 12 00:02
I think Murray is never a value at low odds. lol
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:02
cilic is v unlikely to recover from the mental damage of losing a set from a double break up ...his confidence will be shattered , it might even scar his career
By:
smb360
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
chilipepper • September 5, 2012 11:56 PM BST
Seriously who else saw that grin from Murray when he was down?


IT'S NOT FIXED, ffs

Howdi • September 5, 2012 11:56 PM BST
fecking hope so with a 55k red on cilic


Laugh
By:
the_ace10
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
26/1 to win second set at one point
By:
Gibbo99
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
Backing at 1.18 in sport is ridiculous and a fast road to bank busting. Value is your only friend, not short odds 'bankers'. Backing at 1.18 is pointless unless you're using huge stakes, immediately placing your money at the mercy of human error....case in point Andy Murray.

To cover just one loss, you'll have to win 5 times. Two unlucky or bad choices and you're staring down the barrel of requiring 10 straight wins just to break even.....do the math.
By:
shiraz
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
It is NOT about reading momentum, it is about understanding probability.  So many people try to predict what might happen instead of looking at the odds and determining whether they reflect the probability of it happening.
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
i would have backed murray , even if he lost the breaker
By:
nofx
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
this match demands Andy to go up break and a half to lose set  Mischief
By:
;[p
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
murray should dominate from now on but i will wait one more game and go green out and enjoy match
By:
Schalke 04
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
whats everyones score prediction now?
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:03
reading momentum is important shiraz
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:04
if you saw my p and l's then you'd have some respect
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 06 Sep 12 00:04

Sep 6, 2012 -- 12:03AM, Gibbo99 wrote:


Backing at 1.18 in sport is ridiculous and a fast road to bank busting. Value is your only friend, not short odds 'bankers'. Backing at 1.18 is pointless unless you're using huge stakes, immediately placing your money at the mercy of human error....case in point Andy Murray. To cover just one loss, you'll have to win 5 times. Two unlucky or bad choices and you're staring down the barrel of requiring 10 straight wins just to break even.....do the math.


Alternatively to get value from a 3.15 outsider, you have to win about one in three. It's very easy for a 3.15 shot to lose. If you bet on a 3.15 shot when it should be 3.5 you lose in the long run.

If you bet on a 1.18 shot and it should be 1.08 then you win in the long run.

All odds can have value.

By:
Swum
When: 06 Sep 12 00:05
Bam
By:
morrillo
When: 06 Sep 12 00:05
sick liquidity on this
By:
Swum
When: 06 Sep 12 00:05
Murray going to get destroyed
By:
chilipepper
When: 06 Sep 12 00:05
Of course it's not fixed i mean he was in control all the time, he knows he can beat Cilic
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:05
the bet fair price in running is based on a phenomenon called 'the wisdom of crowds'

google it , it helped my Profits big time
By:
rockinreebo
When: 06 Sep 12 00:06
There's no money in 'betting' at any odda.  There is money in trading
By:
Swum
When: 06 Sep 12 00:06
If you're going to match fix, you're not going to do it in such a big tournament, use your head
By:
rockinreebo
When: 06 Sep 12 00:06
*odds
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:06
shiraz , I don't mean to sound cocky , but i do make consistent profit ...discipline is the single most important quality a successful trader needs imho
By:
singero
When: 06 Sep 12 00:07
looks like murray wants to keep doing this the hard way.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 06 Sep 12 00:08

Sep 6, 2012 -- 12:06AM, rockinreebo wrote:


There's no money in 'betting' at any odda.

By:
Swum
When: 06 Sep 12 00:09
Murray is self destruct mode: he's talking to himself, very bad sign
By:
nofx
When: 06 Sep 12 00:09
i figured Feliciano to be a giant douche and, vs top 5, to give up after missed chances and 2 sets down before this event...
Clinic may still give us five, Andy can do it
By:
Gibbo99
When: 06 Sep 12 00:09
Er, not if you wait for matches like this. Backing Murray at 5-2 down on Cilic's serve would have only lost you a few quid if Cilic had held (approx £10 from £150 stake) due to the double break. It was in effect a free bet. As soon as Murray even smelt the break you're staring at more profit than your 1.18 bet.

My point is it's all about entry points. You can have a free bet and scoop up over 100% of your stake in minutes instead of crapping your pants for an hour while Murray fights back, just so you can break even....see the logic here?
By:
nicky27
When: 06 Sep 12 00:10
FairPlay to cilic , the fact that he has held his serve twice this set , clearly demonstrates his mental strength
By:
yarik
When: 06 Sep 12 00:10
In reality low odds don't make any profit imo. I don't know any successful punter who has a considerable income on the long run who's backing low odds..
By:
henok
When: 06 Sep 12 00:10
where is hardlife today?
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