stoozbet

In the last race at Doncaster (17.15) a horse we've traded on many times in the past goes again today, this is the Scott Dixon runner, Six Wives.

This mare is all about speed and is nearly always able to make the running over 5f. She's been available to trade on in each of her last 6 races and last time out she was returned to turf for the first time this season. That was in a similar race to today & she attempted to make all & traded down to 1.17 but was just touched off into 3rd. That race was very similar to today's and you would think that a more measured display of aggression from the front today should give her every chance of lasting home.

Either way there is no reason she should take her trading record to 7/7 if she does run to exactly the same level & she's entitled to be in the shake up.

Six Wives can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (victor, hills) and at 9.6 on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

A quick not if you're punting & not trading, this is a good each way race for the punter. It's mathematically +EV to bet each way.

Best of luck.

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In the lucky last at Sandown (17.00) I think we can count on the Ian Williams trained gelding Cruise Tothelimit on being towards the front of affairs. He has bags of early speed and has been remarkably progressive racking up a nice record of victories. He made his seasonal reappearance 15 days ago & in a similar race to todays & he was just touched off into 2nd & traded from a BSP of 15.0 down to 2.5.

So given he’s proven his well being & ability from his current mark he looks like a great trading proposition for today. He’s been available to trade in 6 of his last 7 races and he has the right blend of both early speed & guts to fight out a finish.

The one negative for the trade is he’s drawn high on a track where the bias is towards horses drawn low. I do think that this will be build into his price & if he’s able to get out fast enough he can negate some of the negative impact that this will have.

Cruise Tothelimit can be backed for 2 points now at 7.0 at the books (Hills, victor, fred). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.05 at Beverley a horse called Flying Applause runs who showed his best form at this time last year when he landed 3 victories from marks of 67, 73 & 79. After struggling since he's now back to a mark of 69 again. I've alway felt that this horse runs best when allowed to stride out in front & these tactics were used last time out.

This was in a very similar race to today's and Flying Applause actually went over 10 lengths clear of the field from about half way. Unfortunately too much use was made of him too early as eventually the field reeled him back in & grabbed him close home. I think a more measured use of the same tactics today could produce an improved result. Clearly this horse is raring to go & even when headed after making all with the choke out for 1m2f he still battled on to retain 2nd place.

If he goes from the front again then his price should shorten up in running & if Mark Coumbe can learn his lesson & hold on to just a little in reserve then we could see this horse go one better.

Flying Applause can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.35 at Beverley I like the running style of the 8 year old gelding Arizona John. He has the ability to travel very strongly through his races and last time out was cantering all over the leaders to such an extent he traded as low as 1.15 in running in spite of never hitting the lead at any point. He's been available to trade on in 8 of his last 9 races and goes again today in his usual grade.

With 2 runs already this season he should have a fitness edge and if he travels as he usually does then he should go much shorter in running at some point, if he can be held together just a little longer this time then perhaps he may even be able to pull out a little extra to cross the finish line 1st.

Arizona John can be backed for 2 points now at 6.5 the books (coral). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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In the 13.55 at Epsom I want to return to a horse that I've put up for a trade many times before, Spifer. The case for a trade is pretty compelling given he's been available at the prices required in 13 of his 14 races to date. He can be run from the front to put pressure on his rivals but he can also be held up in the back to deliver his challenge late on in the home straight. The one thing that is consistent about him is that he always gives his running and the grey horse usually looks to have a great chance of winning at some point.

Spifer has had 2 runs already in March so we know that fitness should be fine, he last put in a very good performance at Kempton in the same grade of race as today's so everything looks set for another big run.

Spifer can be backed for 2 points at 8.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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PS I've placed a punting selection on stoozbet.com for the 1st race at Epsom. It's a tad risky for a trade.

Tonight in the 18.30 at Windsor the David Elsworth trained filly Elusive Flame runs & she's got an excellent trading record being available at the prices required in 13 of her last 14 races. Ryan Moore is booked for the ride today and of all the runners her price is the one that at 12/1 looks too big to me.

Elusive Flame is nearly always positioned towards the head of things to make good use of her early speed, she usually runs over 7f & is often strong in the finish too but she seems to lack a change of gear to close a race out. Today she's dropped back to 6f & given she definitely stays further than the trip it makes sense to go all out from the front to ensure it's a strongly run race.

There is one negative to mention, it's her seasonal reappearance & last year she didn't run a good race 1st time out. However she's come on much more from where she was this time last year and the eye-catching jockey booking leads me to think that Elsworth should have her primed & ready to go for today.

Elusive Flame can be backed now for 2 points at 13.0 at the books (coral, victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.10 at Pontefract today we have a runner who's 9lb out of the weights which makes the selection by connections for this race an interesting one. This is the young Marco Botti trained gelding Haftohaf.

In my opinion this horse is seen to best effect when he's run from the front which they tried last time out but he's been running over 7f & further in all of his races to date. He was sent off favourite last time out and traded as low as 1.68 in running but tired in the final furlong & faded into 3rd. I think the step back in trip is exactly what this horse needs & today's 6f should be perfect for him. He's traded at 2.12 or below in every single race he's competed in to day & whilst this is a step up in grade I think the shorter distance is a compelling reason for him to show an improvement in form.

Haftohaf can be backed for 2 points at 15.0 at the books (boyles & Betfair Fixed Odds). you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.6 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 1st race (14.15) at Thirsk there seems to be a fair amount of pace on and the one that I’d be pretty sure of winning the battle for the lead is Snow Bay. The 7 year old gelding has already made his reappearance this season in a similar race to todays at Catterick 9 days ago. That day Snow Bay won the battle for the lead & kicked clear of the field around 2 furlongs from home, unfortunately too much use of him was made too soon & he tired in the final stages but not before trading as low as 1.25 in running.

Today he’s likely to go from the front again & with that run putting the racing edge on him if Shirley Teasdale can hold him together at the front of proceedings for just a little longer then he has every chance of lasting home.

Either way if he’s traveling well again 2f from home towards the front of things then we should see his price shorten up  to give us a trade.

Snow Bay can be backed now for 2 points at 6.5 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off  3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.25 at Thirsk the habitual front runner Powerful Presence runs and this David O’Meara trained gelding is definitely best at this time of the year. He rattled up a hat-trick of victories in his 1st 3 races of last season and has now returned to his last winning mark.

He is all about the early speed and is more than capable of kicking clear of this class of field especially from this mark. If he does so again today then he should trade much shorter in running & who knows, maybe he’ll just get home in front.

Powerful Presence can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0 at the books (betfred, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay ffo 3.05 points at 4.4 to give you 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 19.30 at Bath we have a horse entered who over the last 12 months has pretty much exclusively run over this course & distance. That is the Bill Turner trained Lucky Diva who appears to love the 2m1f course at Bath. In combination with 7lb claiming jockey Jale Payne the partnership have raced 4 times over the C&D & gained a victory, a 2nd place, traded at 1.5 in running to finish 4th and finally in a class of race higher than today's contest they traded from a BSP of 33.0 down to 3.3 in running.

Having watched all of those races this morning I can tell you exactly how Jake Payne will ride this course. Lucky Diva will be dropped out the back to be nearly last throughout the 1st half of the race, they will then look to make ground along the inside rail as the course twists & turns down hill. The moment that the trade will likely come is as Jake & Lucky Diva make ground around the inside rail turning into the home straight & attacking the uphill finish at Bath.

Each of the last four runs were identical as she comes off the final bend on the bridle & traveling in a very eye-catching way. Our 7lb claimer appears to know the course perfectly & executed brilliant positioning of his horse at all times to give her the best chance of winning. I can bet you that Jake Payne will have been looking forward to riding this horse over C&D all winter and given she's got a good record fresh this is the one I want to be on today.

Lucky Diva can be backed for 2 points at 15.0 widely at the books and on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.6 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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