stoozbet

Tonight in the 18.30 at Windsor the David Elsworth trained filly Elusive Flame runs & she's got an excellent trading record being available at the prices required in 13 of her last 14 races. Ryan Moore is booked for the ride today and of all the runners her price is the one that at 12/1 looks too big to me.

Elusive Flame is nearly always positioned towards the head of things to make good use of her early speed, she usually runs over 7f & is often strong in the finish too but she seems to lack a change of gear to close a race out. Today she's dropped back to 6f & given she definitely stays further than the trip it makes sense to go all out from the front to ensure it's a strongly run race.

There is one negative to mention, it's her seasonal reappearance & last year she didn't run a good race 1st time out. However she's come on much more from where she was this time last year and the eye-catching jockey booking leads me to think that Elsworth should have her primed & ready to go for today.

Elusive Flame can be backed now for 2 points at 13.0 at the books (coral, victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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