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In the 19.30 at Bath we have a horse entered who over the last 12 months has pretty much exclusively run over this course & distance. That is the Bill Turner trained Lucky Diva who appears to love the 2m1f course at Bath. In combination with 7lb claiming jockey Jale Payne the partnership have raced 4 times over the C&D & gained a victory, a 2nd place, traded at 1.5 in running to finish 4th and finally in a class of race higher than today's contest they traded from a BSP of 33.0 down to 3.3 in running.

Having watched all of those races this morning I can tell you exactly how Jake Payne will ride this course. Lucky Diva will be dropped out the back to be nearly last throughout the 1st half of the race, they will then look to make ground along the inside rail as the course twists & turns down hill. The moment that the trade will likely come is as Jake & Lucky Diva make ground around the inside rail turning into the home straight & attacking the uphill finish at Bath.

Each of the last four runs were identical as she comes off the final bend on the bridle & traveling in a very eye-catching way. Our 7lb claimer appears to know the course perfectly & executed brilliant positioning of his horse at all times to give her the best chance of winning. I can bet you that Jake Payne will have been looking forward to riding this horse over C&D all winter and given she's got a good record fresh this is the one I want to be on today.

Lucky Diva can be backed for 2 points at 15.0 widely at the books and on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.6 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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