Specials
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Eurovision 2025
Eurovision 2025
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well France has had an interesting ride this week.
5.5 before the song is chosen/released, Doesn't go down well and out to 15's on day of release, drifts out to 40, and a couple of days later is now back in to 6.6 IMHO the chorus "Mamon" is weak, autotuned monotone repetitive, lacks va va voom. But market seems to like it. I'm flat/neutral on it (-£1.80  ) so don't mind if it wins, but I don't think I want to buy green at 6.6 |
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Yeah it has been a rollercoaster. I've thrown away money by taking green off the table on the night, but still got a 5-figure green.
People soon realized it is still the most likely jury winner, so around 200 tele votes may be enough for the win, which I think is possible as there isn't much competition in this category and the performance will be more intimate and able to connect with the audience |
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What do we think of the SF running orders? Good for Netherlands, Israel, Finland, and good all over to make a good show which is ultimately their main aim.
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Israel - great slot but they were always going to do very well in public vote only anyway, gives ESC an excuse to give a not so good slot in final.
Estonia - slot 4, very poor, and also with Sweden, big rival for Estonia votes, following 3 slots later. (Spain is immediately following Estonia). |
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Possible price plunges:
Israel. Last Price Matched 17 (20s a couple of days ago). When it wins SF2 or comes very close, or realisation of that probability. Netherlands. LPM 15 (20s a couple of days ago). When people realise it's going to win. Finland. LPM 36. When it wins SF2 or comes very close, or realisation of that probability. Estonia. LPM 70. When it does much better than expected from its death slot in SF1 - although it will likely continue to be knobbled. Cyprus. LPM 80. When people see the staging. Decent song, can be massively uplifted by dramatic staging (which we are promised so could happen with Cyprus). Switzerland. LPM 160. When people realise the juries will love it and, depending on staging, could do well with public also. |
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The Big 5, in odds order:
France = analyst-porn - who are hoping that it could be jury-porn too which it could well be and well set up for a chance. Doubts about public appeal though. The "chorus" is just elongating and repeating the word "maman". UK = great 2/3 of a song (even if a bit musical theaterish). Unfortunately they couldn't come up with a final 1/3 so just repeated what went before - poor. Italy = very pleasant but very old fashioned and unoriginal. Weird appearance creates barrier with much of audience. Spain = fantastic largely cos of the diva with the great voice and presence, but also very old fashioned and totally unoriginal. Germany = horrible noise. |
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Deeper analysis of Netherlands lyrics using the Socratic method:
https://x.com/dean_barney_/status/1903765270121902335 |
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Louane OD's on sawdust thinking it's just sand:
https://x.com/MIRANDA_CIPRIAN/status/1921219030188191895 |
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I notice Henry had Switzerland as a plunge possible at 160 10 days ago and after yesterday dress rehearsal she had plunged down to sub 30 (22 lowest) back out to 50's now a little before the the 1st semi begins at 20:00. I liked the song, but there was much talk about the holders curse (may yet occur) with the holder very rarely getting in the top 10 let alone winning. At 270 I thought it was worth a little tickle (26-april), having a little more on the 5-May at 280. The pundits were gushing over the yesterday's staging (on the main screen since the small audience couldn't see much with Zoe being surrounded by camera men for most of the song). Will be interesting to see what it looks like this evening. Could this be a judges favorite?
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Yeah Switz got to be up there with the judges, there isn't that many that they've got to give their votes to.
Good to see you Martin, the biggest special - 1.7 mill matched and we haven't even had the shows, apart from oc 34 mins of SF!) - and this forum is so quiet. They all left weeks ago when they done their cash. |
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UKR - this isn't so bad at all, everybody was saying it was terrible, I like it. Irrelevant anyway - will get loads of political votes.
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Switzerland and Belgium both did very well at rehearsals, Belgium in particular with it's synchronisation looked great. Netherlands also did a lot better than it's original rehearsal, and has a very emotive ending. Netherlands definitely not out of the jury race either.
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Ned top of jury race imo.
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Sweden looks ripe for taking on trading. Obviously this is the first time I'm seeing any of them. Must be several entries more appealing for the juries.
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Just backed Norway to qualify at 1.22
all that fire etc. (Unless there's another act with a bigger stage fire, then I'm farouked) |
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Why "obviously" Cider, we're not spying on you
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haha, my stated strategy is now to swerve the endless tedious build up and obsessing over minor details, and just begin from the live semis. Predominately to play ir when the jury reveal begins.
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very early call obviously, but looks like it will be a stand of, how long the market will tolerate lowish jury scores for Sweden
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Good to have a fresh view and probably a good strategy. I don't understand the Sweden juggernaut. It'll do well on PV, and it will also show if the judges are following their instructions or if they're now just cowed by PV.
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Favourites tend to underwhelm me on first look! But I can't even remember the hook.
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Assuming it's a low quality edition, generally.
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Probably lower than an average ESC.
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ALBANIA - I love uncle Fester but I think he's gottabe a negative. Will do well in this semi anyway.
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Hopefully his vocal was better for the jury scoring!
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His vocal was great - good range. Did he drop a note. I missed it. No jury votes in semis, just the public, he'll be in T2 of the public vote.
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Oh right, any other rule changes?
A few of the notes sounded off beam to my ears. |
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Just how they announce who qualifies, irrelevant and you'll see it tonight.
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The way they annouce qualifiers will be selecting 3 and then telling which 1 is through, then select 3 again. Silly rule change, quite cruel if anything.
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Yes Switzerland is very pleasant.
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oops, vision screwed !
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cheers chaps
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Oh Cider!! - Yes Switzerland is very pleasant. - another one to add to my "faint praise" collection
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Presenters always awkward. Should change it. Intellectuals speaking different languages. Maybe use Americans who are too thick to be awkward.
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Belgium gone
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Cyprus gone too
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1.05 £733.11
1.06 £3.66 £1,555.74 1.07 £4,203.27 1.08 £7,050.18 1.09 £9,888.06 1.1 £2,933.98 1.11 £4,379.59 1.12 £2,543.57 1.13 £0.08 £4,745.20 1.14 £3,707.88 1.15 £5,373.29 1.16 £3,274.12 1.17 £1,442.05 1.18 £1,253.26 1.19 £745.50 1.2 £236.22 1.21 £1,006.19 1.22 £314.67 1.23 £14.87 1.25 £1,133.43 Belgium to qualify, and were 20s outright last night |
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Neth now 16.5 - 18. Took its time to come back down.
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Who is expecting Austria to be great? It could be but I suspect it might just be a mess. At least I'm not impressed with the staging they've shown us so far.
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