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Eurovision 2025
Eurovision 2025
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The juries have been more unified than the public in the last 3 MFs which would favour Mans but I wonder what happens to his price if he loses the public vote.
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Another one Sweden should send instead of Mans - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dGLh8CCRtE - Sweet n Psycho
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Damn, another France plunge the moment i try to go in again.
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It really does show how weak this year is. Any promise of potential is getting backed hard
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France maybe great. It may be no good. The two behind it, Fin and Neth, would make very decent winners. And we've had the benefit of seeing them.
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They added a Festival da Cancao market for those who wanted it (No liquidity though) - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.240377975
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Cheers Lifter. I just didn't get why it wasn't up when smaller NFs were up. I would be much more interested in them opening the Jury Winner and Televote winner market now, I suggested it should be open from the start, but it's fallen on deaf ears. Think that would be quite an interesting, all be it pretty illiquid, side market from the start.
Netherlands into 3rd favourite. Great tune and skys the limit. Market obviously sensing it will be very strong with the juries. Mans out to 1.5 to win Melo. I feel like KAJ will win the tele vote but not by enough to overcome the jury gap. |
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What do we think of Austria?
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It should do well. Winner? I don't know. Opera, which this becomes, always does worse than the bubble expects. And this one gets too frantic in the second half. Madness because it makes viewers forget about the beautiful first half. It could have had some franticness but then end on beauty.
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Yeah, i'm not sure what to think. I loved the first 50 seconds, then I didn't like the opera. The ending was quite powerful, but that can go either way, and it seems a bit random. I agree it that this could be worse than the bubble expects, and I'm while he's a great singer, I'm not sure how it will sound live (I can iamgine him sounding bit too much like a chipmunk). Get it right, and it wins, though. But yeah, hmmmmm
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First 2 minutes and 20 seconds are brilliant. Don't mind the ending but not sold on it either. Plunge understandable. Very interested to see the staging and vocals. Going off the video you would think the staging could be epic. Doesn't feel like awful opera that we have heard before either, think it mixes in quite brilliantly.
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Sergio Jaén (Ireland 2024) will be the artistic director of Austria. That's enoucouraging for the staging
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UK song announced
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hu6R3ZnOdY . I'm definitely not an expert, but it doesn't sound like a winner to me music seems a bit of a mash up, some parts have the standard ballad guitar, other bits are stock aitkin & waterman pop. currently 50-60 in the market. |
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Can see a fair jury score, especially if it comes alive on stage, but can’t see where any televote comes from. Will do well for a top 15 finish
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I gather they're fairly skilled at vocal harmonising, but the music seems to drown out that talent. It sounds autotuned in places.
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Still no jury and tele vote winner markets. There could have been some very interesting moves in these markets too.
Czechia released their version, and I personally much prefer the acoustic version. Was a big drifter (20s to 50s) before the release interestingly and before the Austria plunge. |
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How do we see Swedens price settling if Mans gets through and if KAJ gets through?
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I'd guess Mans would cause the price to go to around 3s, and maybe out to 12s (???) with KAJ. Personally, I don't think KAJ's winning chances are much worse than Mans'
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for the whole competition that it. I think KAJ get a much higher jury score, and the jury won't punish it. Whereas, with Mans, I can see a 4th place jury and a 6th place televote, or something like that
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**for the whole competition that is. I think KAJ get a much higher TELE score, and the jury won't punish it. Whereas, with Mans, I can see a 4th place jury and a 6th place televote, or something like that
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KAJ could be about to win this...
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Maybe easily. Everybody said the int juries would go for Mans and yet they're equal. With the public yet to be announced and KAJ won all polls, uploads, by a huge margin.
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I think KAJ win the ESC televote, so with the juries respecting them, this drift doesn't make sense (I understand it, though).
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Very pleasing result this. Kaj were actually Evens at one stage to win the popular vote tonight
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Takes finland and estonia out of the game (well, they kind of were anyway)
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Fantastic. Because they did fantastically with juries the really have a shot at winning ESC. Finishes the chances of other fun songs like Estonia. (That is in the unlikely event their racist song is allowed to compete. Like the EBU it initially passed me by originally).
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Lifter it no way takes Finland out of the game. Hers isn't a fun song in the same way KAJ is. We enjoy her having fun but it's a power song. Even has a message.
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Okay, maybe "out of the game is too far", but I think they get 150+ more televotes than Mans would have, so less to go round. I think she needs 320+ televotes to even think of winning
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Ah but they're Nordic. 5 countries (Skandi/Nordic) all voting for each other. Even with Sweden getting loads of their votes there's plenty enough to go around. Cha Cha Cha from Finland got 376 pv and 150 jury and I'd argue Erika offers a hell of a lot more to both public and juries.
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Juries I really can’t call, but yeah, will have to disagree heavily on Erika vs Cha Cha Cha on the pv
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Sweden into 4.0. So shortened a point AFTER Mans eliminated.
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Netherlands on the drift. Not a surprise. Really struggle seeing online people putting this up as their favourite, or top 3 for that matter.
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I just watched the Kaj song.
I don't understand how it could possibly win, which probably says more about my ignorance than anything else. But, I've put some money where my mouth is and laid all there was at 4.5 & 4.6 I can see it appealing to counties where sauna is part of the culture, but going down like a lead balloon in warmer countries. (good bye money   )G'Luck |
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I checked on Sweden's price about midday on Sunday, it was 4.8-5.0
Good, I thought to myself, "The market agrees with me" check again about 6pm, It's gone into 3.7-3.8, wow that was unexpected, the market disagrees with me Now it's back to 4.3-4.6 Not sure if it's the done thing on this thread, but I'm going to ask... Are there any backers of Sweden at these prices (sub 6) to win here? Are you backing it as part of a balanced book? or do you expressly think it's going to win ESC? Could anyone give opinions on why it is favourite to win ESC? many many thanks in advance for your opinions. |
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Hi Escapee
I’m usually heavily involved by now but have ummed and arred for weeks, Once KAJ won I decided to get involved, have taken prices in between 4 and 5. Can’t understand a word but the tune is stuck in my head Uplifting during gloomy times, serious lack of competition, ( waiting for France ) absolutely a televote magnet, I can see this topping the telephone vote as long as there is no developments in Ukraine/Isreal and will definitely gather momentum during the pre parties and rehearsals. Price for me is about right, I’m happy to get involved from here. |
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Expecting a similar result to last year. aka the juries giving it
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Agree on Sweden. As I've been saying, I thought KAJ had a better chance than Mans.
It's not just a "joke" song. It's a catchy tune that gets the spirits up. Expecting 320ish tele vote and 180 - 220 juries. |