Specials
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***SPOTY 2016 starts & ends here***
***SPOTY 2016 starts & ends here***
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Its all over now. Never seen such a cert in this event.
And yet, you can still get odds against.  |
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have too agree with platini here, if kev's campaign..which was a massive northern one.
couldn't beat muzza, i don't see how anyone can..especially when he's done far better already this year his core support is too big for anyone should be 1.20 |
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I don't think he had to win the gold either. It was that moment when he led out the GB team - that was the key moment - watched by millions. His image has been completely transformed.
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Agree with the guys. Similar to Wiggins - he'll come in slowly and surely. Nailed on. Lay Farah, Back Murray reasonable.
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Still think Trotty is nailed on for a place for those on at 33/1 each way. Could also sneak the win if the lefty Beeb push for a female winner. Plus her and Kenny wedding will be high profile later this year.
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No cyclist in t3
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cyclist voters will cut each others throats - there's just no overcoming that.
Mug Murray layers in the last hour haven't spotted that yet (too busy swept away with the golden couple etc). just means an extra opportunity to lock in some huge profits. |
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Agree with Platini the cycling vote is going to be split which will very likely kill their chances. How can they not shortlist Froome? It'll very likely be Trott, Kenny, Froome. Obviously Froome won't get many votes whatsoever but the other 2 will split the cycling vote. If Mo doubles up, he will have the track & field vote to himself this time around. Plus he fell in the 10,000m got up & won. He has polled poorly previously but could do better this time around.
Muzza would be further helped if he wins the US Open and/or helps GB defend the Davis Cup. Don't under-estimate Max Whitlock. Could see a campaign for him among UK gym clubs  |
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currently backed laura trott but when it comes down to it Murray's fanbase is going to take some campaign to overhaul it, especially if he has success in the remaining tournaments. it's going to take a drugs scandal, or a cheating on his wife scandal to deter voters. time to lay trotty and lump murray i reckon.
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Just looking how the Olympics have gone:
I was hoping for a better Mo Farah narrative. He's had that in part with being knocked over and recovering to win the 10,000m but somehow it wasn't a great television moment - he was too exhausted afterwards and the stadium was dark and gloomy. Really the track and field has felt a little joyless with the tiny mostly quiet crowd and that soul crushingly gloomy blue track (which actually looks good in the daytime). Even Bolt has seemed a little underwhelming. Fingers crossed that the 5,000m brings some more drama. There was certainly lots of drama in the velodrome and I think it would be crazy to just think that Trott and Kenney will only get a 'cycling' vote, one of them could easily sweep the whole thing. What do people think of Alister Brownlee's chances? He dominates his sport, has an uplifting story because of his brother plus het came back from severe injury problems to take Rio gold. I know triathletes have not done well historically but he may be able to harness the massive Yorkshire vote that brought Kevin Sinfield his second place last year? Charlotte Dujardin might be a possibility to consider -she polled very well last time she was in the competition and Zara Phillips won ten years ago. As for Murray I think many will think he's won enough times already - that's happened recently with Lewis Hamilton too. It would be ironic that he has already had a much better year than last year and yet he will mostly likely come in second. |
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Mo's races being in the middle of the night is quite damaging imo. His 5K race was the signature of the home games I felt, with Cram's epic calling and the nation roaring him home. His relative poor performance in the subsequent vote was disappointing. If he wins the market will like it and he might even be pushing Muzza for a flip flop for a short time. Being the letics' only gold medalist this games should obviously help.
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Just seen Skelton get his gold. Britain's oldest Olympian since 1908. Also a good story.
Yes Mo still has a good chance and he'll be the only track and field candidate in an Olympic year. Let's hope the 5,000 cuts through the Bolt coverage which strangely seems to be the only story the BBC thinks is worth consistently promoting this week. |
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Don't ever underestimate how important two weeks of Wimbledon exposure is. On top of that the scottish vote and on top of that the Olympic vote.
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Murray needs to win the US open I reckon as there are plenty of ways he can fall just short. It's a bit much to win 3 out of 4 years when there are other appealing characters. Also his Wimbledon and Olympic victories weren't against Djokovic. Last year he was a slam dunk and it wasn't just a Scottish vote that saw him through (all the press was for him too). Specials votes are often far less predictable than people think. He would be a lay for me except I think he will drop shorter close to big night.
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He'd be a lay for me if I could see a credible alternative. Trouble is I can't.
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Well sports personality is often about stories so the athletes I mentioned before could catch fire on the night. I do like the Brownlee brother as a Yorkshire vote would be equal to or greater than a Scottish or Welsh vote and there is some charm in his story.
If Djokovic beats Murray in the US Open, Murray's support may sag a little. In a way I see last's years victory as being a bit like in the Oscars when a director wins for one of their poorer film when they should have won on another occasion -that occasion would be this year's performance. Nailed on favourites do lose - look at Mcilroy losing out to Hamilton. |
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Who's going to beat Murray - that's the question - no one can answer it.
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Working that out is where the fun lies
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At the moment I can only see Trott as a challenger, the golden couple thing will get a bit more exposure with their upcoming wedding and the public love a bit of romance. If only her future hubby wasn't in the nominations as well - huge vote splitter there. But I see her as nailed on to finish top 3, and prob 2nd. Farah is far too short in the market - his wins were not the defining memory of the games - unfortunately for him team GB had their best every games and there were countless other great moments, many in far more competitive events than his. His "story" is also very old news. It wasn't enough to win in previous years where the SPOTY field was much weaker, either. As for Murray, I don't but the whole nobody can win it 2 years running argument. The fact that it hasn't been done makes it more special - a bit of history - I think the BBC would be quite happy with that. But its not up to them anyway, its the voting public, and Murray has never been more popular.
Right now I see Murray winning comfortably, with Trott in 2nd place, 3rd goes to another Olympian (take your pick). |
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farah winning the 10000 as the conclusion of super saturday was the moment of the games in 2012 prime time on a saturday night with every man and his dog watching and even then he didn't finish in the top 3. hard to see how he can better that this time around
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No real clear cut candidate for the win ATM IMO.
Concerns about the motivation to vote again for Murray,cycling vote likely to be split and a suspicion that track cycling doesn't carry the same voting clout as on the road,Mo (IMO) the most deserving however a less than stellar result in SPOTY in 2012,doubts over whether the football contenders will make the shortlist,other contenders representing minor sports...... I suspect things will be clearer when we know the actual list,but for me it's all set up to be won by a campaign type vote such as Sinfield last year. I'm hoping it turns out to be Whitfield having had a few quid E/W at big odds. |
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June? That's going to require one helluva campaign
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I suspect a campaign works best for a sport that feels under-recognised or under-represented so RL was ideal. Gymnastics could fit that bill, however the sport has made stars out of Louis Smith and Beth Tweddle, so it's not done too badly.
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It took me ages to get that joke
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soz that's out of the tim vine box of jokes |
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Murray got a strong nationwide vote last year in a year of weak candidates. The ten for this year will have more stories and the vote will be more evenly distributed. I reckon that most people make their mind up on the night and a good Whitlock or Farrah montage could swing it with Murray finishing most likely second. Also bare in mind he might be less interested in getting it this year, he was at the awards last year because of the Davis Cup victory but usually he's in training camp at that time - or now he might choose to spend his precious free time with his family. I just don't see him getting a massive push on the night.
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As for Mo vs. 2012. I'm in two minds. I think that the public will recognise the significance of his achievements but I do think the fact that it was agains late at night and in a gloomy stadium may kill the mood a bit. Also I think he is a lousy advocate for himself - his interviews are very tedious and he is quite inward looking. The BBC will push him very heavily though.
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Whitlock is very impressive. He's shown improvement from 2012, come back from illness and achieved something special in a very popular olympic sport. I think he might be a better advocate for himself.
Like I said earlier I do think Alistair Brownlee should be a lot shorter too - he's a cert for the shortlist and there will be a northern/Yorkshire vote. Plus triathlons are very popular these days. If it wasn't for Leicester, the England Hockey women would be a cert for the best team. I wonder if there could be a surprise on the night? |
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England!? sorry about that
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The 16/1 about the hockey team is reasonably tempting, very likely ends up a value loser though.
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The captain of the hockey team is carrying the flag tonight in the closing ceremony...
But yeah a value loser :-( |
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Murray has drifted up to 2.76 now for those who think he'll ace it
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ta for flagging up - took a load.
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up yer arse?
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oh we do have some jokers on here ;-)
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https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jun/20/mo-farah-jama-aden-somali-coach-arrest-doping-charges-british-athletics
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Ouch, could move MO out.
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sorry an old article but some inconsistencies in his chats with journalists
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