Specials
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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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and from that we can derive
Albania GREECE 12 ITALY 10 SPAIN 8 NORWAY 7 GERMANY 6 AZERBAIJAN 5 UK 4 RUSSIA 3 UKRAINE 2 SWEDEN 1 |
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Better if he had been at the piano imo
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I agree George , better with piano on stage, but the draw and jury votes means its nailed on top 10
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In your Albania example, you have 0 results for Netherlands, only 1 result for Belgium and 2 for Italy and Malta?
We can derive next to nothing about Albania's preferences for these 4 countries IMO. |
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Funny I was just looking at his T10 odds before your post. His 14m youtube views are 2/3rds teen girls and MEMs.
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for the Netherlands I have gone back further, averaged the votes given to them and inserted them into the list for each country, knocking every country below that in the list down a place (and removing the bottom country). For Belgium, I agree, it is just based on one voting year.
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Some useful stats here SoA though you have got them already I think
https://docs.google.com/a/guardian.co.uk/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI0Eo6IUSaHdHhjQ0RCa3RCaEVKTnM2RUNyX18wYXc#gid=2 |
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Who is the European guy who comes on the forum only for the ESC and very late in the day? penguin or something?
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romania is the albania of last year?
weird song vote surge? |
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thanks, I do have it now, but that would have been useful.
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The only conclusion I would draw about Albania, is Greece are likely to be a shoe-in for big points - which I could have told you before you posted the spreadsheet. Italy have had 2 songs that have done very well with the jury vote, and have a 3rd that is likely to do the same, so good points to Italy would not surprise me either. From the rest of your example, the other 8 sets of points could go anywhere.
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Albania would normally have Bosnia and Turkey near the top of their votes too, and Macedonia, so that makes their vote trickier to predict.
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If you look at Sweden, the 2nd country to vote tonight, you would think from the totals that Ireland would get the most votes from them. They have given Ireland 200 pts in Eurovision, Norway 157 and Denmark 154. But if you look at the actual data, other than 12 pts in 2011, they have hardly given Ireland any points since 1997, whereas they consistently over the previous decade have given points to Norway and Denmark. So thats another example of how going back too far with stats can be problematic - although I agree that more than six years could have been used.
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That's why I suggested 1997 when most countries went to Televoting.
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but not all countries, so that would make the stats a combination of televoting and non televoting, which would be as bad as skewing it for winning countries.
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btw, anyone know why there was a year in which Serbia voted but did not compete?
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Er there was not? What year are you talking about?
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Those not using televotes would be in the minority. You have 4 years now with a 50-50 split where you use the split results and not the televoting only ones, so...
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There was a year back in the days when Serbia was not independent and competed with Montenegro. They withdrew but were still allowed to vote.
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Just one more point, despite the introduction of juries, in the last 4 years, the televoting winner has still won. Could this year be the first to buck the trend?
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In 2011 Italy won the jury vote with Azerbaijan 2nd, in th pv Azerbaijan won with Italy in 11th. Azerbaijan won overall with Italy 2nd overall. So a country that wins one set of votes can still win overall if they are still placed in the other set of votes if they don't win that set of votes.
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Shocked at Finlands price 50's for the win. Its really going to beat Denmark Norway Sweden Iceland from its own region and get a top 5 jury vote?
Seriously its my lock for a top 10 lay at the prices and I'd not back it at 500 let alone 50 |
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Its not even beating these main Scandi rivals in the i-tunes charts either. The price is beyond me ^^
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maybe they will be like lordi a dark horse
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I think the price could be shorter after she performs tonight. Then I'll lay it again.
Most of the uk viewres will think its the sort of crap europe votes for. After all the competitions a joke, right  |
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It's the new fans favourite. Probably the same people who were backing San Marino
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Finland now 38
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Finland is this year's Cyprus, and I expect it to shorten further in running. It's not gonna make top 10 though, more like bottom 6. Casuals did not understand the voting rules for the last 3 years, so they have no hope this year.
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The VC guy tipping it up on twitter, as he was San Marino too
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i like it but what they are wearing puts me off
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it looks to me as something from an ann summers hen night
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Betvictor have set the viewing figure bet at 7.1 million
Last year was 7.47 which had itv showing a live England friendly match up against it. The year before was 9.54m Over 7.1 at evens seems a fair enough bet to me |
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He blocked me fll just for asking about restricting accounts
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the tight git.
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Restricted? They close any account where the punter isn't totally clueless
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or how about when the punter is winning.
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Must be why I can get a bet on then
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bgt tonight bear
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