if your bet Srich is as good as your arithmetic then you are best keeping it to yourself!!!!!!!!!

Okay SoA, good luck. You should keep it to yourself, since proclaiming Russia as 1.2 bet vs Ukraine they've gone out from 2.1 to 2.4. I was just genuinely worried that your absurd stats are going to get you in trouble like they do in the tennis but hope you fare well as always. Good luck.

potato potarto, lay Ukraine back Russia, the point I was making was that Russia should be strong favourites in that match up.

sorry mate it was misleading what you put and it was me who was wrong but yes you can make profit that way

heeeeeeeeeee heeeeeeeeeeeee haaaaaaaaaaa welcome popking

I know you are you poor little boy

you'll be waiting some time, I have plenty of bets to do before that one.

you cannot even make up your mind about what name to call yourself - so how can ANYBODY trust what the feck you are saying

want to tell me what that 1.08 bet was, because I dont recall it.

sorry scratch omly yoking mate

for Andrius fans Lithuania v Estonia 2.9 looks tasty (for buttons obv as its sb)

I have Lithuania finishing above Estonia, but not by that much.

I like you SoA, you seem a decent guy, I just wanted the forum to be weary, it appears they're clued up, so that's all good. As I said good luck. If you ever get a decent bank roll and fancy a large bet on one of your selections, I will probably more than happily put up a large chunk mid way as liquidity isn't that good on side markets so we'd both feel we were getting a good deal i.e. I'd happily lay Russia 1.66 for a very large amount vs Ukraine if you fancied it. Good luck sir.

I think most forum shrewdies have already made their mind up on srich's analysis posts.

Vaguely interesting to see, but hugely unreliable and misrepresentative, and need to be treated accordingly.

Denmark are missing top 10, that's right isn't it srich?  Fill your boots on that 1.02 lay.  Doubt that is worse odds than your top 10 fancy.

I think Russia 1.7 vs Ukraine would be a more accurate price.  It's not a bet for me though.

Note, pk, I don't ridicule your posts, although they frequently seem to be based on nothing more than guesswork formed from your own opinion.

Yes, because there arent many points between them in my stats and with so many former Soviet countries in it, the votes between them could swing in unpredictable directions.

Lithuania is for sure a dark horse. But statistically it doesnt have much chance. However, if it is popular it could surprise a lot of people.

I am sorry Srich, I don't mean to be ridiculing your posts, I am sure they are 100% accurate for what they set to do, I just don't think it means very much when you have stats for countries like Norway and Belgium that by your own admission are screwed by 1 year out of 4 where they had a well thought of song.

Also when you make statements like Norway should outperform expectations and they are expected to come 2nd anyway according to the odds, yet later you don't think they can win or come 2nd, you appear to be contradicting yourself a lot.

My posts are based on my own opinions, and I bet accordingly.  There are lots of different elements factored in to this, but whatever methods you choose to employ, every year is a little different, so there will always be large amounts of guesswork.  You are trying to work out how televoters and jurors will vote in circa 40 countries for this year's crop of songs.  That's not as simple as seeing how they voted the last 4? years only.