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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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Just finished my analysis (tho im sure not as detailed as Srich) and I cant find any significant weighting as to where the bloc allies fall in the 'good evening Malmo'. the biggest bias is actually with Sweden who nobody fancies anyway I just did it because it was on my spreadsheet from last year because of Loreen.
Greece averages 19th place which with 38 results is exactly what you would expect  so I dont understand why it should have come in |
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39 sorry*
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mine took hours, but at least I'll have it for all Eurovisions now :)
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I only did the first 10 in the betting I must add not all 25
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26
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The biggest thing the voting suggests to me is that we may be in for a close contest right from the off with a number of countries coming to the fore, some more than once.
The way they are ending would suggest to me Georgia may have won the jury vote, but the real basis for this is Lithuania's 12 pts and the fact the last country to vote has gone for the jury winner in the last 2 years. I don't think there is much more to be gained from the voting order at present - keep it close by tonight though and look out for anything unusual. Italy are likely to kick off with 12 points but again that has been said, and we should get an idea of which Scandi country is favoured pretty early too. |
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This is my take of singing order..
Yes, I know that in a decade just one winning song has been from the first half of the draw, but if you go back further, there are plenty from the first half of the draw. And this year obviously the draw is not exactly random, so that will have an unknown effect too. There are just three positions countries should want to avoid singing in - 1st, 2nd and last. 17th is apparently the most frequent winning slot, but there have been two of those on the trot, so surely not another this year i.e. not Hungary. More important I think are the locations of the songs in relation to advertisement breaks. Obviously in the UK there are no adverts, but we can tell when they are because we get some tour of the home nation on our screens etc. People wander off to do things in ad breaks and dont get to see the whole of the next song. Additionally, songs sandwiched between popular entries are likely to be forgotten. |
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Does anyone know why the audience booed Armenia after they qualified from the semi final, btw? Was it because they pulled out of it for political reasons last year?
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One bet that I like is this - Russia v Ukraine H2H market - Russia are at 2.1.
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eurovision preview show on sky 365 atm
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I'd back 2.38 now. Looks a 2 horse race with Italy fav.
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That in response to Dicky
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What price should they be?
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^ for SoA
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Russia should easily finish above Ukraine I think.
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so, I would say 1.2s.
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I have Russian as winners and Ukraine 9th.
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Russia*
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You think Russia are 1.2 shots to beat Ukraine. That's one hell of a shout. May I ask, why are you not 'baw deep' on them at odds against then? If you had any faith in your pricings you'd be begging for money off anyone to get 2.0+ on a 1.2 shot which leads me to believe you have little faith in your system.
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because my money is going on a much more profitable bet.
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although I am increasingly tempted by the 20s on Russia to win, too.
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Which is? Russia to win? Which begs the quesiton, what price do you make them to win?
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having said that, if anyone is thinking of betting on Russia, do so after the first few countries have voted :)
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Oh, okay, what market are you referring too? Can't be Top 4 as there's barely a penny on them.
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From the points I have calculated..
Russia 189 Azerbaijan 171 Norway 160 So, it'll be close if that is correct |
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Top 10.
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Okay, guess you have them sub 1.1 for that.
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Not sure because if Russia dont do well they often do badly.
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although I really cant see that song doing badly.
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Yet they're 1.2 iyv to beat Ukraine. Bizarre SoA to say the least.
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yes because the Ukraine cant rely on Poland and Turkey for votes this year.
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So, then you're not getting better value from the Top 10 market then are you. You'd be getting better value backing a 1.2 shot at 2.0+.
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Im not doing Russia for top 10.
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My top 10 bet is at much bigger odds.
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Oh, what is the more profitable bet out there than 2.0+ for a 1.2 shot then?
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that would be telling - I will post it when my bets are on, with reasons.
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poor old Srich !!!!!!!!!
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?
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and no, its not Romania.
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