Specials
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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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I think everyone has discounted Sweden too, and there is a chance they could do well again.
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I have them finishing 6th.
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Do you think? I'm not so sure of the song and there have been years when Sweden have bombed quite badly. Also it has the problem of not being heard in the semis like the other big 5 songs
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Ah I see, I had flirted with them being in the top 10 but put them mid table. Thanks for the pointer I'll have a think through again
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the song is not good, but hosts usually get votes.
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There is a country which I think will be in the top ten which is at huge odds. But I'm not saying who
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at least not til my money is on :)
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:-) well I wish you all the best with that but certainly let us know afterwards how it went. What I'm hoping for is a fairly competitive vote with a few twists and turns, market panic in specials can be very lucrative if you're on the right side of things. Ok I'm going to have to get some sleep, I want a clear head come the evening.
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I'll post my full predictions tomorrow after my bets are on.. with all the stats that I calculated, and then see how close I got it :)
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I'm off too. Topped up a little on Russia, but have no real idea
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Winning song language
2012 English 2011 English 2010 English 2009 English 2008 English 2007 Serbian 2006 English 2005 English 2004 English 2003 English 2002 English 2001 English 2000 English 1999 English 1998 French 1997 English 1996 English 1995 Norwegian 1994 English 1993 English 1992 English 1991 Swedish 1990 Italian |
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SoA, I totally disagree with the greek 'diaspora' argument and generally with the 'diaspora' voting.
It is better to focus on the songs instead. Greece never got any votes from other countries until the last decade. If you do some research you will see that greek songs used to get only 12-25 points (12 points from Cyprus  ) points in most of the competitions between 1970-2000.Greeks blamed politics etc. They were totally wrong. Since 2000 they started to send good songs with singers who could speak english. Guess what happened, Europe started voting for them and Paparizou (who is born and lived mainly in sweden) finally went to win the whole thing. If the song is good, everyone will vote for it, maybe it will not get 12 points but certainly 8 or 10. Remember Greece gave 12 points for Finland (Lordi) when they won, although they had never voted for Finland before! I remember also a time (11-12 years ago) that the cyprus song was so sh1t that Greece gave only 2 or 3 points. Do I think diaspora voting or neighbourhood-voting exist? Of course, but not in the way you think. If most of the songs are boring or nothing special then it is obvious that countries will give their votes to their neighbours. The last decade the big four complained that they get no votes from East or Balkan or Skandinavian countries. When was the last time they send a good song? Germany finally send a good song with Lena and she won! good morning |
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Very interesting reading all the statistics on previous voting preferences,and predictions of future events.I'm a complete novice at ESC betting,so I could be way off here,but surely you have to factor in the quality of the actual song when trying to predict voting patterns?
Sure,I understand that certain countries are always likely to give big points to near neighbours/allies ,but to solely use this criteria to predict the result does seem a little strange to me.Wouldn't we get the same result every year if the patterns kept repeating themselves? |
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I'm with you hemsby, also a eurovision novice! I've only been seriously involved two years, one Lena obviously and the Running Scared year.
Surely applying the usual rules one can't be that far off. When I was all over Lena there were hugely strong arguments on here against her winning because it was Germany. I didn't think Sweden would win last year, probably because I didn't personally appreciate the song at the time. Now I can see it was the best song. If a song is strong enough it will usurp any national bias. If there is no stand out song then national bias could nudge the result a particular way. Is Denmark as far ahead as the market is suggesting? not imv. |
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I'm with you Cider on the Denmark song.It's certainly one of the better entries,but I personally don't see it as far superior to all the others.I can see it being say, Top 6 in the PV and Top 8 in Jury score,but IMO there is a reasonable chance something could beat it in both categories.Put it this way,I'd rather have The Field over Denmark in a match bet,so the current odds on price seems wrong to me.
I'm very hopeful Holland score well on Jury vote,the PV is the great unknown.Russia seem quite likely to score well on PV,with the Jury vote being perhaps less certain. Arguments can be made for a high Jury score for Italy (less so perhaps on PV) and say a decent PV for Greece (almost certain less so on Jury). It seems to me that Denmark is the most likely winner,but if one of the challengers scores well in a category which was questionable,it will get beat. |
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.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2kApUuLGLQ
Marco nails it yes, jury a bit of an unknown. Simple but effective, for me. |
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Voting order. This been posted? What can we learn from it?
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=good_evening_malmoe_-_jury_order_revealed |
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There's a small hours discussion on here the conclusion seems to be we're none the wiser.
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ah ok. Looking at last years russia and sweden both voted lateish.
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In 2011 italy voted 4 and azer 20 so no obvious link to where countries finished.
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Denmark win the PV and come Top 5 in JV and win, that's how I see it. Song doesn't have to be amazing this year and SoA doesn't seem to be able to adapt to the reality of how this show works. I don't think people voting in Europe will consider the song formulaic though agree the juries might, but I think she's such a young charming star and personable character that they'll give her votes.
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I think Italy should do well with the JV, don't see it doing too well in the PV.
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Italy seems more PV friendly than 2011 so who knows?
Press centre vote this year but they only got 4 out of 10 right in 2012. Better in 2011 iirc. https://twitter.com/escXtra/status/335440806775226371/photo/1 |
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I'm none the wiser from the running order to be honest if its meant to somehow give clues to the jury winner and or the o/r winner. Maybe as a few have surmised this means its a country without a normal group of bloc allies perhaps Netherlands or Italy
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Italy @ 1.91 for Top Big 5 Country, Thoughts?
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2.38 was better a couple of days ago
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What baffles me is, the OGAE poll which has Denmark well ahead, has picked 3 winners out of the last 6 years. However, out of the others they came 4th, 18th and 24th. How can a mass poll be sooo far out? Madness. Anyway, 4 out of the last 7 years tonight, every journalist thinks Denmark is home and hosed, everyone will be listening out for it and voting hopefully
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Ogae poll has San Marino in second place, good luck with that
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fooking forum - I meant to say scratch Italy from that comment with San Marino and Albania early ^^
Netherlands to have won the jjury then - with my rose tinted specs on |
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4 of the last 7 winners too, can't be ignored hopefully
 Let's go Denmark let's go. |
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OGAE and the press polls are a complete irrelevance imo tho its fun to see them
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The OGAE vote is almost exclusively voted by fans, so if a song wins - or even places - that is not a fan favourite - like Lordi or Dima Bilan - the results will be screwed up.
There is very little value in it at all. |
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Surely winning songs are fans favourites?
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It's also worth pointing out the OGAE is not a prediction. Other sites like www.esctoday.com run their own prediction polls in which the results tend to be mostly a bit more accurate.
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Denmark got 374, and Sweden got 375. Fate!
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Winning songs are songs that resonate with the average viewer at home. The OGAE panels are made up of Eurovision nuts. The two are very different.
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Cheers, was wondering why such a wide diasporia of votes. Bit like a Digital Spy poll if ya like
Though must be said, the mainstream ones, like Denmark, which have topped recently, have all gone on to win. |
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Lordi was never going to be a regular eurovision fan's fave and many voters who went for it on the Saturday night may never have voted in Eurovision before but just like the different sound, feel, look it brought.
Dima Bilan had a strong fanbase, but they were not really Eurovision fans. |
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First thing I read this morning through bleary eyes.. 'Alcohol Free' - the bathroom mouthwash
Greece up to 6th in the outright |